FROM THE CLOUDS

[Demonland 65,908]

by the Oracle

Had I written earlier in the season, that the two combatants in Saturday’s MCG match of the day between Melbourne and Port Adelaide would both be in the top eight of the AFL as the competition began to make its swing into the run up to the finals, I would been accused of stretching the imagination way beyond reality. Surely, I would have been pulling your leg if I made such an outlandish suggestion?

But that’s exactly what’s transpired with both clubs – they have come from the clouds and now both are commanding respect and attention.

It's been well documented around here how the Demons lost their first three games and how things were looking bleak with an appointment against reigning premier Sydney in round four. But a narrow victory in that game set the stage for the club's great revival and we now find it in fifth place with an 8/4 record after the break. If you've been watching Melbourne’s recent performances – particularly the 47 point demolition of Collingwood – you would be wondering how on earth the team could have played so dismally in going down to Carlton in the opening round of the season.

Port Adelaide also did it tough early in the season losing four of its first six matches before it began a four match winning streak that culminated with an emphatic victory against the West Coast a fortnight ago. Suddenly, Port has grabbed eighth spot on the ladder and it is also now a serious finals contender. Again, if you witnessed that stunning 37 point win at AAMI Stadium over the Eagles, you would be wondering again how on earth that team could have lost at home by almost seven goals in round 1 against the Kangaroos.

The similarity between the two clubs is that both have introduced fresh blood into their teams since the season started and both have gone on to thrive on a combination of experience and youthful exuberance. Which leads us to the difficult question of which of the two will continue its run when they meet at the MCG on Saturday.

And this is where I have no hesitation in relying on the old fallback position for those in the business of making predictions whenever there is any doubt as to the possible outcome of a game – home ground advantage. In this respect history is on Melbourne's side despite the fact that Port Adelaide has won at its last four outings at the home of football. One of the reasons for this is that for some strange reason the Power has managed to avoid playing very often against Melbourne there. Saturday’s match will be only the sixth clash between the teams over the past decade of Port's existence with the Dees undefeated in all five previous games. During the same period, the teams have met once every year in Adelaide so for the first time ever, the Demons won't have to make the trip this year to the City of Churches to play the former SA magpies. Which is handy, because they have fallen victim to some horrible pastings there in recent years.

But it's a different story altogether at the MCG where Melbourne remains undefeated for 2006 and where it plays its most impressive football. In addition, I'll add the following factors –

1. The Byron Pickett Factor – there's no doubt that the recruitment of the Byronator has added a harder edge to the Melbourne Football Club. The man who Power coach Mark Williams discarded because he was considered unemployable is having a fantastic season and will no doubt be out to show his former mentor that he was wrong. And why not? This bloke is a dual premiership player and won the Norm Smith Medal twelve months before Williams dumped him.

2. The Brock McLean Factor – with the weather bureau predicting a wet day, what more could Melbourne ask for but the return of one of the competition's best wet weather players – another hard nut and a wonderful performer for the club in season 2006.

3. The Warren Tredrea Factor – when the teams last met at AAMI Stadium he booted five goals. The year before he destroyed Melbourne at the same venue with six majors. The WT Factor will not apply this week because he's out with a knee injury. The fact that the in form Damon White is out could also be significant because it leaves Port short of talls.

The predicted rain might limit the advantage Melbourne might gain from Port's loss of Tredrea and White but let's not forget that when the going gets heavy you need big strong bodies. The Dees will have the first two factors in operation so if the clouds open up, they should be in the box seat.

There will of course be some classic battles around the ground. Jeff White and Mark Jamar v Lade and Brogan should be a ripper and so should David Neitz v Darryl Wakelin. Aaron Davey and Danyle Pearce might not match up against each other but they will provide pace to burn. And the midfield matchups will be worth going a long way to see and the introduction of another Burgoyne will help the visitors.

On the other hand, I wonder how often in the past it could have been said of Melbourne that players of the ilk of Brad Miller, Paul Wheatley and Ryan Ferguson who all played so well last week at Sandringham are unable to break into the team. That's a sign of confidence if there ever was one.

So it's a case of home sweet home for Melbourne and I’m tipping a 38 point victory for the Demon juggernaut. May it keep on rolling along!

MELBOURNE v PORT ADELAIDE

Where & When: MCG, 2:10pm (AEST), Saturday, 1 July, 2006

TV & Radio:

TV - Fox Footy (Melbourne, Perth, Brisbane, Sydney), Channel 10 (Adelaide)

Radio - 774 Grandstand with Gerard Whateley, Drew Morphett, Stan Alves , Mark Maclure & Peter Brukner

Head to Head: Played - 14, Melbourne 7, Port Adelaide 7

MCG: Played – 5, Melbourne 5, Port Adelaide 0

Last time they met: Port Adelaide 20.17.137 defeated Melbourne 11.9.75 in Round 15, 2005, at AAMI Stadium – the Melbourne slump was well and truly on as Port kicked 11 goals to 3 in the first half. Brad Miller was off with a hamstring injury by quarter time and the Demons had few winners on a terrible day in Adelaide. And things were only going to get worse.

The betting: Melbourne $1.40 Port Adelaide $2.75

The Teams:

MELBOURNE

B: Whelan Carroll Holland

HB: Ward Rivers C Johnson

C: Davey Johnstone Green

HF: Bruce Dunn Pickett

F: Robertson Neitz Yze

FOLL: White McLean McDonald

I/C: Bartram Jamar Read Sylvia

EMG: Ferguson Godfrey Wheatley

IN: McLean

OUT: Bate (hamstring)

PORT ADELAIDE

B: Wilson Wakelin Symes

HB: Lonie Chaplin S Burgoyne

C: Salopek K Cornes Surjan

HF: Dew C Cornes Mahoney

F: P Burgoyne Brogan Ebert

FOLL: Lade Cassisi Pearce

I/C: Motlop Pettigrew Thomson Ware

EMG: Thomas Thurstans Walsh

IN: P Burgoyne Motlop

OUT: Tredrea (knee) White (thumb)

Field umpires: Davis McInerney Wenn