THE NATIONAL BANK DRAFT

[Demonland 73,139]

by the Oracle

In a little under a week's time the 16 AFL clubs will get together to take part in the National Australia Bank AFL Draft sponsored by the National Australia Bank. The hopes of all 16 clubs will be that a goodly number of the players they select, will by September 2006 have shown their wares in the National Australia Bank Cup during the pre season, made auspicious debuts in senior ranks, received National Australia Bank Rising Star Nominations (one of them probably will be crowned the winner of the National Australia Bank Rising Star Award sponsored by who else?) - and why not?

Most of the players coming under consideration for the draft have already played in the National Australia Bank AFL Under 18 Championships, some made the National Australia Bank All-Australian team and the majority would have attended the National Australia Bank AFL Draft Camp. The players who do get nominated will become bankable commodities and some of them, even those not yet 18 years of age, will be laughing all the way to the bank. You can bank on that!

There is a problem however, with the forthcoming draft. There simply aren't any real stand out players and most of those who look good are currently in the not quite right basket.

Many of the pundits are been talking down the pool of players available for selection but one shouldn't conclude that it's a draft full of duds. As one respected drafting expert, Colin Wisbey said on the Magpies Extreme Bulletin Board, the "... 2005 draft has been talked down and I've been one of those doing so. However, no-one should read into that that there won't be many good players coming out of it." The Wiz believes that it's an even field but it's going to be tough identifying who the top 8 - 10 will be and in what order they will be drafted. "Plenty of kids who have shown a bit here and a bit there or who, if they can get fitter (or whatever) might have more to offer than they have shown."

The "not quite right" aspect arises for a couple of reasons - some of the better prospects who otherwise would be definite top ten chances are carrying injuries while others have had question marks put against their names because of problems with attitude or availability for next season.

The most highly publicized of the injuries was the situation of Eastern Ranges key position forward Beau Dowler who suffered three fractures to his pelvis as a result of a recent car accident. The most likely prospect for number one selection, Vic Metro captain Marc Murphy who also won the Larke Medal at the championships, has experienced slackness in a shoulder. Another highly regarded key position prospect, Josh Kennedy from East Fremantle recently underwent a shoulder reconstruction, fellow Sandgroper, Travis Varcoe has also had surgery to repair a serious foot injury. Another highly rated prospect, Beau Muston, a 189cm tall midfielder from the Murray Bushrangers had a knee reconstruction early this season and was recently told he needed further arthroscopic surgery which will put him out of action for at least a further six months. Queenslander Michael West is another highly ranked junior who required a knee reconstruction after being injured late in a lead up game to the Under 18 Championships after kicking 13 goals.

The fact that players have had corrective surgery shouldn't prevent these players from having successful careers in the long run (Chris Judd had two shoulder reconstructions before he was drafted) but doubts about their short term health must surely be a consideration if a club is faced with deciding between two “best availables� otherwise considered to be about equal in ability.

To add to the "not quite right" component in this year's draft is the fact that there have been suggestions that some of the more highly regarded draft prospects are tainted by certain flaws in their make up. There have been comments passed about some along the lines of "lazy", "skinny", "physical but can only play forward", "not very smart on the field", "likes to smoke and drink all day" and "more an athlete than a football player". There are stories around during every national under 18 carnival that certain players have "tanked" in order to put interstate clubs off the scent. These are far fetched and smack of conspiracy theory but they're out there and were again in 2005. I'm not naming names at this point but some of the above comments have been corroborated from a few different sources.

A measure of how the clubs regard this draft is the fact that the trading period saw them trading early draft picks for very ordinary players without so much as a second's hesitation - a sign that there is not a great deal of faith among some clubs in the supposedly highly regarded top selections in this year's draft pool.

I've put together a bit of a "mock" draft for the top twelve selections (which gets us to Melbourne's first round draft selection) but before I start, it should be noted that the Demons drafting last year of three of the four youngest players in the 2004 National Draft - Matthew Bate, Lynden Dunn and Michael Newton might yet prove to be a successful piece of speculative recruiting. It's arguable that had this trio not been drafted last year as bottom age players, they might have had spectacular carnivals for the respective Victorian teams and could well have been in line for top ten selection at the end of this month. The fact that Melbourne has put these players, "in the bank" so to speak, may well put the club in a very strong position with respect to this year's draft.

THE ORACLE’S PHANTOM DRAFT

Bearing in mind the comments I've made about the quality of players in the national draft pool, here’s my crack at how this year's draft will pan out. After the event, I'll probably end up with lots of egg on my face but, at least I don't have to explain where I've gone wrong. Spare a thought for the AFL club recruiters - if they choose poorly, then it's their job that might possibly be at stake!

[i've also added quotes by coaches and /or managers from Inside Football’s excellent Draft Liftout]

1. Carlton - Marc Murphy (Oakleigh Chargers) Height: 179.1cm Weight: 74.7kg DOB: 19-Jul-87 Position: Small Midfielder.

Murphy is the son of former Fitzroy great John Murphy who shunned the Brisbane Lions' overtures to join them under the father/son rule. The popular view is that a deal was done at the time with Carlton which has the first pick and this classy and creative rover with clean hands is therefore a near to certainty to be the number one selection this year. He has all the credentials having won the Larke Medal at the NAB AFL U18 Championships and also gained All-Australian honours. Performed well at the NAB AFL Draft Camp.

"Gets heaps of the footy but is also very good defensively. He has good body size despite being relatively small height wise. I can see him playing senior footy this year." – Rohan Welsh – coach of Oakleigh Chargers...

2. Collingwood - Xavier Ellis (Gippsland Power) Height: 186.3cm Weight: 71.7kg DOB: 28-Feb-88 Position: Medium Defender

A graduate of the AIS/AFL Academy in 2005 and an All-Australian at U18 level, Ellis is likely to spend most of 2006 playing schoolboy football at Melbourne Grammar while he completes Year 12 of his schooling. He is a superb reader of the play, is a superb natural athlete and finishes off well – usually with the left foot.

"A left footer who is a very classy player. Reads the play very well whether its down back on the wing or half forward." – Peter Francis team manager of Gippsland Power.

3. Hawthorn - Patrick Ryder (East Fremantle) Height: 195.7cm Weight: 85.6kg DOB: 14-Mar-88 Position: Ruckman

A strong mark who can play in the ruck or as a key position goalkicking forward who has already made his senior debut at WAFL level. Another All-Australian whose versatility makes him a certain candidate for early selection.

"Patrick is a tall aboriginal boy who plays in the ruck but can play key position. He’s very athletic, a good mark and kick and has had a terrific year with us." – Andrew Lockyer coach of East Fremantle Colts.

4. Carlton - Josh Kennedy (East Fremantle) Height: 195.1cm Weight: 92.3kg DOB: 25-Aug-87 Position: Tall Forward

This tall player from the West has impressed with is strength in marking contests and good reading of the play. Like Ryder, Kennedy has already played at senior WAFL level but his pre season will be limited as a result of a shoulder reconstruction.

"A very athletic player who played both centre half forward and centre half back. Has very solid hands, is a really good kick and had a great national carnival." – Andrew Lockyer coach of East Fremantle Colts

5. Collingwood - Beau Dowler (Oakleigh Chargers) Height: 194.6cm Weight: 84kg DOB: 16-Dec-87 Position: Tall Forward

Was favoured early as a possible # 1 choice but others jumped ahead in the queue during the season and the broken pelvis incurred in that car accident didn’t help his cause. Medical reports suggest he will make a full recovery and because he has all the attributes, the wait will be worthwhile for this tall forward who takes a big grab and is an accurate kick for goal.

"A key forward who is a good mark and a really good kick for goal. His running capacity is spot on so you could play him anywhere." - Rohan Welsh coach of Oakleigh Chargers.

6. Hawthorn - Shannon Hurn (Central District) Height: 188cm Weight: 92kg DOB: 04-Sep-87 Position: Medium Defender

This strongly built youngster is ready to go at AFL level having played in the last two premierships with SANFL club Central District. A booming kick for goal who has good hands, Hurn was also a top cricketer but selected football ahead of a possible Test career.

"Shannon’s a long raking right foot who is a ready-made senior footballer." – Simon Arnott development assistant at Central District.

7. Essendon - Mitchell Clark (East Fremantle) Height: 198.1cm Weight: 91.3kg DOB: 19-Oct-87 Position: Tall Forward

Yet another tall forward from East Fremantle, Clark was rated more highly than both Ryder and Kennedy in early draft discussions but a poor Under 18 Championships has seen him fall back in the rankings. He was a joint winner with Brett Deledio of the Sheehan Medal for best player at NAB AFL U16 Championships in 2003 and will be taken early.

"Can play all key positions as well as in the ruck. Very athletic, can take a good mark and is a great kick when he gets it." – Andrew Lockyer coach of East Fremantle Colts

8. Richmond – Marcus Drum (Murray Bushrangers) Height: 189.7cm Weight: 79.7kg DOB: 01-May-87 Position: Medium Defender

An accomplished and versatile young player with good disposal, Drum was an All-Australian as a bottom age player in 2004 but too young for last year's draft. Can play anywhere, has good pace and skills and is a dedicated player who prepares himself well.

"Marcus is a consummate professional – the most professional player I have ever coached. Leaves no stone unturned, trains the house down, captained our side and was a great leader" – Xavier Tanner coach of Murray Bushrangers

9. Brisbane – Austin Lucy (Caloundra) Height: 193m Weight: 91kg DOB: 04-Sept-87 Position:

Defender

All Australian Under 18 key defender who attacks the ball strongly, is prepared to back his judgement and run with the ball and can kick it long.

"Austin ... is a big, strong, hard player who played against men for the Suncoast Lions all year. Rarely gets beaten one-on-one and is a really attacking player who loves to run off and bomb the ball forward." – Craig McRae coach of Queensland Under 18’s.

10. Fremantle - Andrew Swallow (East Fremantle) 183cm Weight: 76.5kg DOB: 02-Jun-87 Position: Medium Midfielder

A ball magnet who works hard and has pace and strong leadership credentials having captained WA at Under 16 and U18 level. Showed out with some excellent performances at the NAB Draft Camp and if there is a question mark about him, it is his delivery of the ball.

"Andrew is a midfielder who can play defensively or offensively as an onballer. Very, very quick, very strong over the ball and has good hands. Might be a bit suspect with his kicking but that can be rectified and I reckon he’ll go top 10." – Andrew Lockyer – coach of East Fremantle Colts

11. Western Bulldogs - Cleve Hughes (Norwood) Height: 191.9cm Weight: 84.4kg DOB: 15-Jan-87 Position: Tall Forward

Hughes is a strong marking mobile key forward who is an excellent kick and a strong mark. Won All Australian honours in 2005 and has played at reserves level in the SANFL.

"A tall forward who is a good mover and a beautiful kick when he gets it." - David Oatey development manager at Norwood

12. Melbourne – Nathan Jones (Dandenong Stingrays) Height: 178.7cm Weight: 84.5kg DOB: 20-Jan-88 Position: Small Midfielder

A super fit hard it midfielder whose 36 possession game in the TAC Cup Grand Final for the Stingrays raised his stocks considerably. Before that however, he gained All Australian honours averaging 20 plus possessions in the three games including 27 for Vic Metro against WA. A player who is ready to go.

"Nathan ... had a massive impact at the national carnival. Possesses an enormous work ethic ... he's one of the hardest working kids I've ever seen and he’s only 17." – Graeme Yeats coach of Dandenong Stingrays

I don't propose to go beyond pick 12 but would add that others who impress are Geelong Falcons midfielder Shaun Higgins, exciting Gippsland utility Dale Thomas and livewire aboriginals Jarrad Oakley-Nicholls of East Perth and Travis Varcoe.

After that it's a long way to Melbourne's second and subsequent draft selections at 53, 60 and 68. Once you're in that territory, you're looking at the smokeys and recycled players who have been tried and often found wanting elsewhere. Recently delisted Magpie Brayden Shaw could be picked at this level and if there is a dark horse for a Demon selection, it could be young SA ruckman Hugh Minson who is a huge 200 cm plus and is said to possess every bit as much talent as brother and young Bulldog Will Minson. Although you can never ever bank on dark horses, I have a feeling we might see this kid in an AFL guernsey some time soon. Perhaps in next year's National Australia Bank Pre Season Competition?

FOOTNOTE: This blog is not sponsored by a Bank.