THE TRADING CHRONICLES 2005

[Demonland 73,139]

by the Oracle

ZERO HOUR - THE TRADE GAME

I can't believe it's on again and that it's already been a year since the last great football "great flesh market" took place. This morning the representatives of all 16 AFL clubs will meet in true Wild, Wild West style in order to distribute their trade lists, to haggle over horse flesh and to play a sophisticated game of chance during the annual gathering of football horse traders at the Optus Oval saloon. This game, in which the booty is a treasure chest of footballers and draft choices can only be described as a hybrid of test cricket, poker and basketball, a game that will end in frenetic and dramatic scenes more gripping than "High Noon", more deadly than "Straw Dogs" and, at times, more hilarious than "Forrest Gump" - it's the AFL Trade Game.

If the now familiar pattern is followed, the day will be ushered in by a series of meetings in the old corporate boxes of Optus Oval involving recruiters from each club where they will discuss their wish lists and possible trades with their counterparts.

This is the beginning of a five day ritual and hence the allusion to test cricket but it's not a hit, miss and giggle game like the one-day variety or the insufferable new fangled twenty-20 stuff and nonsense. No!

This is a game of patience and reflection; it's a game that has its ebbs and flows and a game full of so many twists and turns that you really needs the assistance of someone like the master of suspense - Alfred Hitchcock - to help in its understanding and in the ultimate unravelling of the plot.

The end game in this form of sport takes place not when the clock strikes at high noon but a little later - at exactly 2pm this coming Friday.

The five day duration of the test match trade game means that it is unlikely any transactions will be finalised immediately. There's plenty of time for that later and besides, many deals are dependent upon clubs concluding separate trades over other players or draft picks.

The clubs are wheeling and dealing, not just in current players but in futures as well because an integral part of the process is the capacity to deal in draft selections. Trading takes place on the basis of clubs swapping players and/or draft picks. The objective is of course, to recruit needed players to the club while maintaining the best possible position at the draft selection table. That's where the poker part comes into the game. There's an element of bluff involved in the flesh market of trading.

As with most forms of gambling there are many unsavoury features of the trade game. Players receive telephone calls from their managers in the middle of the night and suddenly they discover they are packing their bags and being shunted off to far flung parts of the continent doomed to wear unfamiliar colours for the remainder of their playing days without a hint of consultation (never mind the fact that they sometimes end up with fatter contracts).

The game has one thing in common with most sports. Before the event even starts, there's endless conjecture about what will occur once proceedings finally get under way. This year dozens of names have been bandied about in media speculation but if history is a guide, very few of the mooted trades will see the light of day.

Often the clubs and managers are bluffing - playing cat and mouse with each other in order to complete the best contract available. Whatever the case, the number of deals that are actually done is minute in comparison to the number discussed in the scuttlebutt and speculation and we can expect that again this year. In fact, the activity might even be at a lower level than usual if a hunch of prominent player manager, Ricky Nixon is proved correct. He said on radio last week that his phones were not ringing as they had done in previous years and this might be an indication of a quiet trade week - either that or he's changed his number and forgotten to pass on the word.

That brings us to the basketball part. I find that sport to be totally useless and boring except for the last two minutes where anything and everything can happen. Which is exactly what happens in the football trade game - everything is revealed in the very last scene - the final intense half hour of activity - that's when most of the real dealing gets done.

It's going to be an interesting ride till we get there - especially for Melbourne fans. Going into the week, the Demons are linked with two of the big four names being bandied about in early trade calculations - Carlton's Lance Whitnall and Kangaroo forward Daniel Motlop. The others are Whitnall's teammate Brendan Fevola and Hawk defender Jonathan Hay.

As the trade week poker gets under way with a pair of Blues close to the top of the deck, the question on everyone's lips is which way will the cards turn at the end of the week?

DAY ONE - BUNFIGHT AT THE OO CORRAL

I have in my mind's eye this picture of the scene inside one of the Optus Oval Corporate boxes at around midday.

This is the room where the officials of the Demons and the Blues are meeting on the opening day of trade week. Seated at the table is an assortment of individuals, but all of the attention is on Melbourne's General Manager, Recruiting & List Management Craig Cameron and his opposite number whose name I fail to catch as he walks into the room filled with the acrid smell of cigar smoke.

Standing against the wall are some ladies in their finest outfits. A buxom blonde sits on Cameron's knee, a brunette is perched on that of the wrangler from Carlton town. They are playing poker - five card stud - and you can see ripples of sweat pooling over the dealer's brow as he flicks the first card onto the table.

It lands face up.

A sudden gasp collectively emanates from the mouths of the bystanders. The picture on the card facing the men is of a bulky red headed man in a navy blue jumper.

It's Lance Whitnall.

Now, a hush falls on the room as Cameron lifts a card with Clint Bizzell's face grinning back towards him. The wrangler is unfazed. In a booming voice, he utters a single word -

"Pass"

Cameron, who has been silent up to now, looks steely-eyed into his opponent's face and declares,

"I'll raise you pick number 28."

The Carlton man nervously glances at Cameron's pistol holster. The tension in the room is reaching fever pitch and he looks straight faced at the man staring him down at the other end of the table.

"Let's make a trade", he says.

They nod, turn to each of the women perched on their knees and give them a signal. Without a word, the young floozies change places. A bell rings and by the time AFL man Adrian Anderson pokes his head into the doorway, the brunette is sitting on Cameron's knee.

"Time gentlemen".

The first trade has been done.

DAY ONE - PLENTY OF NOTHIN'

Player agent Ricky Nixon's prediction was correct. The silence of his telephones in the week before the official opening of the AFL trades was a good indicator that, at the very least, there were not going to be any early deals. Melbourne's Craig Cameron emerged from the OO corral and confirmed that the opening day of the trade period had been a non-event for the Demons and most of the others. None of the clubs were willing to show their hands and this was the "quietest day I can ever remember," Cameron said.

I can vouch for the fact that things were certainly quiet in the Optus Oval precinct in the early afternoon. I completed a busy and successful September at work and, after filing some reports and attending the obligatory Monday morning sales meetings, I had the rest of the day off. I was heading in the general direction so I passed Carlton's old ground hoping to get a taste of the atmosphere of the trade event.

I got plenty of nothin'. It seems that nothin' was plenty enough for the AFL scouts.

I ended up at my favourite drinking hole and eating establishment (my previous favourite having been closed down by health authorities) and found myself in discussion with a mate whose knowledge and understanding of the draft and trades is limited but he is a big fan of the game. The conversation came around to the "big four" - the four players who have dominated trade talk in the lead up to the week - Carlton pair Brendan Fevola and Lance Whitnall, Hawthorn's Jonathan Hay and the Roos Daniel Motlop.

His view was that if this was the best material that trade week could throw up, then the whole thing was a complete waste of time; the players in question was simply "not quite right" as far as he was concerned. On a good day each of them could play football but they all came with a certain amount of baggage.

Fevola was a complete head case, Whitnall's weight problems were legend and he therefore carried a fair bit of internal excess baggage, Hay's form has been about average since his stellar year of 2001 and Motlop looks to be injury prone having missed the bulk of the 2005 season with multiple injuries. He also had some serious questions about a player who claims that he wants to move from Melbourne to Adelaide so his wife can be a little closer to the family in Darwin - couldn't really work that one out. I'm sure he would not have been impressed either with the revelation later in the day that Hay had dropped the bucket on the Hawks for involving his name in trade discussions while still a contracted player.

"I am looking forward to playing in a successful team because I don't see Hawthorn having success in the next three or four years," declared Hay at the end of what appeared a long, hard, tiring and emotional day for him.

Our drinking session lasted a lot longer than I would have liked and I also ended up tired and emotional but capable of coming to the conclusion that I was in heated agreement with my drinking partner.

I walked home, watched the news on TV and received confirmation that nothin' much was happening so far as the trades were concerned. There was plenty of talk about the big four and the usual hubbub concerning a number of lesser lights but I was convinced at the end of day one that it was probably a good thing that it was all quiet on the trade front.

DAY TWO - WATTS ON FIRST

The first deal of the 2005 trade period was done when Adelaide's Fergus Watts came home to daddy in the form of Jim Watts who is also the St. Kilda Football Club Chief Executive. The deal has cost the Saints their first round selection - No.17 overall which is a hefty price to pay for someone who played just five matches for the Crows in his first AFL season and missed out completely last year.

What price Chris Judd?

The popular view is that the Crows will use their newly acquired draft pick to recruit a player in a further trade but that is currently in the realm of the speculation (Brisbane's Troy Selwood or Carlton's Trent Sporn perhaps?), which remains the locale of most trade discussion after the first two days of slow motion non-action. As I said earlier in the piece, we are in the middle of an intriguing poker game of test match proportions and the real action won't start until the two-minute buzzer sounds in the early afternoon of Friday. Even allowing for this however, things have been unbearably slow for the true aficionados of the trade game.

This morning, I heard an interview on SEN radio that shed some light on why this year's trading action has been moving at such a snail's pace. Hawthorn list manager Chris Pelchen was discussing with Kevin Bartlett and Patrick Smith his club's response to accusations made by contracted defender Jonathan Hay of double-dealing and lying by the Hawks. Pelchen explained that in the week of the AFL Preliminary finals his club met 10 of the 15 other clubs for informal talks on possible trade deals. Those not involved were the four clubs remaining in the premiership race and Geelong which had just been knocked out of the finals in Sydney.

You can bet on it that if such discussions are happening across the board, then most of the clubs will have met well before the proceedings opened yesterday at Optus Oval and on this basis, they might as well do away with the first three days of the trade period.

A better idea would be to conduct the horse trading at some secluded location on a one weekend. Why not televise it all as reality TV in the Big Brother household and have Gretel interview the evictees one by one as they leave their old clubs on their way to a new future?

Now, getting back to Jon Hay who appears to be the lynch pin of the largest deal brewing at the moment. It appears that Pelchen was approached by three AFL clubs - Fremantle, the Kangaroos and Melbourne as to Hay's availability and that the Hawks kept him and his management in the loop in respect of those enquiries. In the end, the Dockers and 'Roos came back but the Demons didn't.

Fremantle's offer of draft selection No.10 for Hay has been rejected by Hawthorn and this has given rise to the possibility of the first blockbuster deal of the trade period - a convoluted exchange involving four clubs, four players - Hay, Daniel Motlop, Byron Pickett, Steven Armstrong - and enough picks to satisfy a bloodthirsty matador in a bullfight.

The exact details are uncertain but it seems that ityyys all up to the Kangaroos who will start day three mulling over the release of Motlop to Port and draft picks to Hawthorn in exchange for Hay with Pickett going to the Demons in exchange for Armstrong and draft selection 28 which will be traded on to the Hawks.

I'm always a tad sceptical when I hear of such complicated transactions and there's also enough in this deal to raise my cynicism metre to record high levels.

Port Adelaide football operations manager Peter Rohde was still insisting today that there is no way in the world that Pickett, a Norm Smith Medallist would be traded.

"Byron has told us he wants to stay and we want him to stay," Rhode said.

On the other hand, the Crows who missed out on Motlop when the Kangaroo utility decided to throw in his lot with the Power sounding decidedly piqued. Their football operations manager John Reid said they dropped out of the running for a trade involving Motlop because there were "risk factors" involved. Motlop had a medical and interview with Adelaide coach Neil Craig last week.

As for the remaining half of the "Big Four" there was little apparent movement at the station as the second day of trading came to an end.

Instead, an even bigger name was being thrown up in the guise of Hawthorn's All-Australian ruckman Peter Everitt who is apparently set to seek a transfer to Sydney despite the fact that he has a year remaining on his contract. All parties involved are playing down the prospects of such a move - a sure sign that something will eventuate on this front in the next day or so ...

FOOTNOTE: I've received a number of requests about the rules that the AFL has in place for the trade period, so here goes -

■ All Clubs must exercise at least three draft selections

■ A club may exchange a player or players on its primary list for a player or players on the primary list of another club

■ A club may exchange a player or players on its primary list for a single draft selection or multiple draft selections of another club

■ A club may exchange a player or players on its primary list for a combination of player, players, single draft selection or multiple draft selections of another club

■ Any exchange automatically applies to the 2005 NAB AFL Draft

■ Clubs may not exchange more than five players

■ Clubs may not exchange more than three players in any one transaction or series of related/interdependent transactions

■ Any exchange between two clubs only must include a player

■ Clubs may only exchange draft selections from that year's draft, and not for any future year

■ Clubs may not exchange a player received in any transaction, until the following year

■ For multiple club exchanges involving three or more clubs, it is not a requirement that each club involved make an exchange with each other. In this case, two clubs can exchange a draft selection for a draft selection only, provided the remaining exchanges include the transfer of a player or players

■ A club may exchange a draft selection it has received from another club, provided the selection is not traded directly back to that club

■ Clubs must exercise all draft selections received in any exchange with another club.

■ The full list of the order of selection for the November 26 National Draft prior to the trade period was -

Priority

1 Carlton 2 Collingwood 3 Hawthorn

Round 1

4 Carlton 5 Collingwood 6 Hawthorn 7 Essendon 8 Richmond 9 Brisbane Lions 10 Fremantle 11 Western Bulldogs 12 Melbourne 13 Kangaroos 14 Port Adelaide 15 Geelong16 Adelaide 17 St Kilda 18 West Coast 19 Sydney

Round 2

20 Carlton 21 Collingwood 22 Hawthorn 23 Essendon 24 Richmond 25 Brisbane Lions 26 Fremantle 27 Western Bulldogs 28 Melbourne 29 Kangaroos 30 Port Adelaide 31 Geelong 32 Adelaide 33 St Kilda 34 West Coast 35 Sydney

Round 3 *

36 Carlton 37 Collingwood 38 Hawthorn 39 Essendon 40 Richmond 41 Brisbane Lions 42 Fremantle 43 Western Bulldogs 44 Melbourne 45 Kangaroos 46 Port Adelaide 47 Geelong 48 Adelaide 49 St Kilda 50 West Coast 51 Sydney

Round 4

52 Carlton 53 Collingwood 54 Hawthorn 55 Essendon 56 Richmond 57 Brisbane Lions 58 Fremantle 59 Western Bulldogs 60 Melbourne 61 Kangaroos 62 Port Adelaide 63 Geelong 64 Adelaide 65 St Kilda 66 West Coast 67 Sydney

Round 5

68 Carlton 69 Collingwood 70 Hawthorn 71 Essendon 72 Richmond 73 Brisbane Lions 74 Fremantle 75 Western Bulldogs 76 Melbourne 77 Kangaroos 78 Port Adelaide 79 Geelong 80 Adelaide 81 St Kilda 82 West Coast 83 Sydney

Round 6

84 Carlton 85 Collingwood 86 Hawthorn 87 Essendon 88 Richmond 89 Brisbane Lions 90 Fremantle 91 Western Bulldogs 92 Melbourne 93 Kangaroos 94 Port Adelaide 95 Geelong 96 Adelaide 97 St Kilda 98 West Coast 99 Sydney

* father/son selections can be made in the third round.

DAY THREE - AND THEN THERE WERE THREE

When business closed at 5pm AEST on Day Three, the AFL announced that the following trade paperwork had been formally lodged: -

1. Adelaide exchanges Fergus Watts to St Kilda for its round one selection (number 17);

2. Geelong exchanges Paul Chambers to Sydney for its round two selection (number 35) and

3. Collingwood exchanges Richard Cole to Essendon for its round two selection (number 23).

The Kangaroos are poised to pick up 19-year-old Daniel McConnell from West Coast in an exchange of first round selections (18 for 13) in what is likely to be the fourth transaction to be concluded although it might also become part of the notorious Jonathan Hay scenario which gets more and more complex and the week rolls on.

But the big news of the day was that the "Big Four" suddenly and dramatically evaporated into a "Big Three" when Lance Whitnall re-signed with Carlton for a further two years after ending his contract dispute with the club. Insiders say that the new contract will allow the big redhead sufficient additional pocket money to fill the larder with enough meat pies, chocolates, pasta and other assorted goodies to last a lifetime.

That signing and the fact that very few fish are biting for Brendan Fevola given that most potential suitors - including Richmond - lack the space in their salary caps to accommodate him, still leaves the Blues in a bind as they struggle to keep other experienced and disgruntled players, Scott Camporeale and Matthew Lappin. At least, they have Whitnall around whose large girth they can now build their future.

The irony of the re-signing of Whitnall at such a high figure is that twelve months ago, the Blues were close to offloading him to St. Kilda but apparently, the sticking point was whether they were prepared to foot some of the bill for the remaining season of his contract. If Lance has an ordinary 2006, I wonder if Carlton will be forced to revisit the same scene at next year's trade week?

I have to take back yesterday's suggestion that the powers that be should make an effort to truncate trade week into trade weekend. The Hay/Motlop/Pickett deal which struck a number of snags during the day is becoming so intricate that it now requires an entire weekend just to explain, let alone to get the details onto a fax bound for AFL house.

The deal has morphed into a giant monster whose tentacles include a raft of draft picks, the above-mentioned McConnell trade and a new element - Hawthorn's Nathan Lonie who replaces Melbourne's Steven Armstrong. It seems that Armstrong has been gobbled up by the monster and is now out of the picture. Where that leaves Byron Pickett's possible move to the Demons is anyone's guess.

And anyone's guess can be applied to the vast array of draft deals that are being concocted by the AFL recruiting and list management people as the trade week caravan rolls on.

It's a pity however, that it's not only the recruiting people who are involved publicly in the action. Some of the coaches have entered the fray and, in my view, are not helping improve their own standing nor that of their clubs.

Dean Laidley appeared decidedly uncomfortable and unconvincing in threatening Daniel Motlop with the pre-season draft stick after he refused to go to Brisbane in order to clear a path for the Kangaroos to pick up draft pick number 9 which could have been used to secured Hay.

"If we land Jonathan Hay, through Brisbane or Melbourne or Port Adelaide, fantastic, and we land him for what we think is fair and reasonable, terrific. Daniel will get his wish.

"But, if we don't, I will hang him out to dry," the 'Roos coach said.

Kevin Sheedy was not to be outdone by all of this and he fired a warning that the Bombers would take Scott Camporeale in the pre-season draft if a deal could not be done with the Blues.

I believe that it's unnecessary for coaches to come out publicly in this way. It does their image no good and their statements are sure to come back and bite them and their clubs on the backside at some time in the future. They should keep their posturing for the draft poker table - if at all.

Another aspect of this week is that it has brought to light a story of failed friendships. According to one newspaper report Daniel Motlop "has fallen out with Roos teammates Daniel Wells and Eddie Sansbury and it is understood a friendship with Melbourne's Aaron Davey has also waned."

Those who get their men and those who get their fat contracts might be happy campers but trade week is not a time of happiness for all.

DAY FOUR - TOO MUCH NOTHING

The fourth day of the trade period dawned bringing with it clear evidence that the drawn out horse trading process was in danger of rapidly sinking into oblivion - as a spectator sport anyway. The fact that Melbourne's tabloid newspaper, the Herald Sun, deigned to remove football from its back pages for the first time since the Swans annexed the 2005 AFL premiership on that one day in September was bad enough but did they have to replace it with three pages of reports about a Mickey Mouse game of international cricket?

Let's face it. The AFL trade experience is not only overrated - it's bloody boring to boot! That's obvious when our premier sporting newspaper spends so much space trilling about Australia's crushing 93 run win over a hung over World XII in front of a half vacant Telstra Dome.

There was plenty of premium space left over at the ground for more than the usual quota of theatregoers but there was even less of that commodity available for football in the HUN's sports pages where the scribes struggled to put an interesting slant on the previous day's exchanges.

In any event, most of the trade proceedings were eminently forgettable.

The reality is that even the so-called "Big Four" trade names (which had earlier been reduced to three and is now almost certainly down to two given the Tigers' apparent withdrawal from the race for the Fev) were flawed in the eyes of many beholders and the rest of the names being considered were getting down into the hack class. After three days of almost nothing, it was becoming too much for the ordinary punter with the majority of players coming under discussion being those who, during the 2005 season, struggled for regular AFL selection with the clubs that were offloading them.

The first trade - cobbled together on day two - had set the tone. The fact that a player who was shunned by his team's selection panel for all 25 weeks of their season could still command a first round draft pick set an unbelievably high bench mark. It pushed the price of a decent footballer through the roof and into the stratosphere.

The truth is that the well-administered clubs had planned ahead for this week knowing that it was fraught with danger if they allowed the best of their young talent to remain uncontracted by this time of the year. They ensured that the players they wanted to keep were safely under lock and key and left us with those who, in the main, either weren't going anywhere or those who spent most of the year running around in the VFL, WAFL, SANFL and their Brisbane and Sydney equivalents -the expendables.

And that's what the trade week is all about. The expendables.

As a result, the trading continued into the fourth day but nothing spectacular happened. An example of nothing spectacular was the fourth trade of the week: -

4. Essendon exchanges Ted Richards and its round four selection (number 55) to Sydney for its round one selection (number 19) and its round three selection (number 51).

[A further trade is awaiting the mere formality of paperwork being lodged:

5. West Coast exchanges Daniel McConnell and its round one selection (number 18) to the Kangaroos for their round one selection (number 13) and its round two selection (number 29).]

The premiers have now traded away their first three selections in the national draft and, as things currently stand, they won't come into contention on National Draft day until 55.

That might well change on day five when the last minute feeding frenzy happens but it shows where the Swans believe they are at and what they think of this year's draft pool. More of nothing.

Things will hot up today at just before 2pm when careers will be made and broken. Deals will either end up in the fax machine or the shredder. There are going to be some surprises and some heartache for supporters with familiar faces gone from their teams' lists and others added on. The speculation will continue to mount as the deadline approaches but, as always, a large percentage of the supposedly done deals of draft week will evaporate into thin air and turn into nothing.

DAY FIVE - IT'S OVER

And so it came to pass that on Friday, 7 October 2005, the long, hard week ended with a record low number of 13 exchanges completed between the AFL clubs. The following trade paperwork was lodged during the AFL's exchange period:-

1. Adelaide exchanges Fergus Watts to St Kilda for its Round One selection (number 17);

2. Geelong exchanges Paul Chambers to Sydney for its Round Two selection (number 35);

3. Collingwood exchanges Richard Cole to Essendon for its Round Two selection (number 23);

4. West Coast exchanges Daniel McDonnell and its Round One selection (number 18) to the Kangaroos for its Round One selection (number 13) and Round Two selection (number 29);

5. Essendon exchanges Ted Richards and its Round Four Selection (number 55) to Sydney for its Round One selection (number 19) and its Round Three selection (number 51);

6. Western Bulldogs exchange Patrick Bowden to Richmond for its Round Four selection (number 56);

7. Sydney exchanges Jason Saddington to Carlton for its Round Four selection (number 52);

8. Hawthorn exchanges Nathan Lonie and its Round Four selection (number 54) to Port Adelaide for its Round One selection (number 14);

9. Hawthorn exchanges Jonathan Hay to the Kangaroos for its Round One selection (number 18, on-traded);

10. Port Adelaide exchanges Byron Pickett and its Round Four selection (number 54, on traded) and its Round Four selection (number 62) to Melbourne for its Round Two selection (number 28), Round Three selection (number 44) and Round Four selection (number 60);

11. The Kangaroos exchange Daniel Motlop to Port Adelaide for its Round Two selection (number 28, on-traded) and Round Three selection (number 46);

12. The Western Bulldogs exchange Jade Rawlings and its Round Three selection (number 43) to the Kangaroos for its Round Three selection (number 46, on-traded) and

13. Sydney exchanges Mark Powell to the Kangaroos for its Round Four selection (number 61).

On a club by club basis, this is the final wash up of the trade week activities:-

Adelaide

Received: Round One Selection (number 17) from St Kilda.

Traded: Fergus Watts to St Kilda.

Brisbane Lions

Did Not Trade

Carlton

Received: Jason Saddington from Sydney.

Traded: Round Four selection (number 52) to Sydney.

Collingwood

Received: Round Two selection (number 23) from Essendon.

Traded: Richard Cole to Essendon.

Essendon

Received: Richard Cole from Collingwood, Round One selection (number 19) from Sydney and Round Three selection (number 51) from Sydney.

Traded: Ted Richards to Sydney, Round Two selection (number 23) to Collingwood and Round Four selection (number 55) to Sydney.

Fremantle

Did Not Trade

Geelong

Received: Round Two selection (number 35) from Sydney.

Traded: Paul Chambers to Sydney.

Hawthorn

Received: Round One selection (number 14) from Port Adelaide and Round One selection (number 18) from West Coast, via Kangaroos on-trade.

Traded: Jonathan Hay to the Kangaroos, Nathan Lonie to Port Adelaide and Round Four selection (number 54) to Melbourne, via Port Adelaide on-trade.

Kangaroos

Received: Jonathan Hay from Hawthorn, Daniel McConnell from West Coast, Mark Powell from Sydney, Jade Rawlings from the Western Bulldogs, Round Two selection (number 28) from Melbourne, via Port Adelaide on-trade, Round Three selection (number 43) from the Western Bulldogs, Round One selection (number 18) from West Coast, then on-traded to Hawthorn and Round Three selection (number 46) from Port Adelaide, then on-traded to the Western Bulldogs.

Traded: Daniel Motlop to Port Adelaide, Round One selection (number 13) to West Coast, Round One selection (number 18), from West Coast to Hawthorn, Round Two selection (number 29) to West Coast, Round Three selection (number 46), from Port Adelaide to the Western Bulldogs and Round Four selection (number 61) to Sydney.

Melbourne

Received: Byron Pickett from Port Adelaide, Round Four selection (number 54) from Hawthorn, via Port Adelaide on-trade and Round Four selection (number 62) from Port Adelaide.

Traded: Round Two selection (number 28) to the Kangaroos, via Port Adelaide on-trade, Round Three selection (number 44) to Port Adelaide and Round Four selection (number 60) to Port Adelaide.

Port Adelaide

Received: Nathan Lonie from Hawthorn, Daniel Motlop from the Kangaroos, Round Three selection (number 44) from Melbourne, Round Four selection (number 60) from Melbourne, Round Two selection (number 28) from Melbourne, then on-traded to the Kangaroos and Round Four selection (number 54) from Hawthorn, then on-traded to Melbourne.

Traded: Byron Pickett to Melbourne, Round One selection (number 14) to Hawthorn,

Round Two selection (number 28) from Melbourne to the Kangaroos, Round Three selection (number 46) to the Western Bulldogs, via the Kangaroos, Round Four selection (number 54) from Hawthorn to Melbourne and Round Four selection (number 60) to Melbourne.

Richmond

Received: Patrick Bowden from the Western Bulldogs.

Traded: Round Four selection (number 56) to the Western Bulldogs.

St Kilda

Received: Fergus Watts from Adelaide.

Traded: Round One selection (number 17) to Adelaide.

Sydney

Received: Paul Chambers from Geelong, Ted Richards from Essendon, Round Four selection (number 52) from Carlton, Round Four selection (number 55) from Essendon and Round Four selection (number 61) from the Kangaroos.

Traded: Jason Saddington to Carlton, Mark Powell to the Kangaroos, Round One selection (number 19) to Essendon, Round Two selection (number 35) to Geelong and

Round Three selection (number 51) to Essendon.

West Coast

Received: Round One selection (number 13) from the Kangaroos and Round Two selection (number 29) from the Kangaroos.

Traded: Daniel McConnell to the Kangaroos and Round One selection (number 18) to Hawthorn, via the Kangaroos.

Western Bulldogs

Received: Round Three selection (number 46) from Port Adelaide, via the Kangaroos and

Round Four selection (number 56) from Richmond.

Traded: Patrick Bowden to Richmond, Jade Rawlings to the Kangaroos and Round Three selection (number 43) to the Kangaroos.

An indicative list of draft order at this stage is (subject to change when delistings take place) as follows :-

Priority

1 Carlton 2 Collingwood 3 Hawthorn

Round 1

4 Carlton 5 Collingwood 6 Hawthorn 7 Essendon 8 Richmond 9 Brisbane Lions 10 Fremantle 11 Western Bulldogs 12 Melbourne 13 West Coast 14 Hawthorn 15 Geelong 16 Adelaide 17 Adelaide 18 Hawthorn 19 Essendon

Round 2

20 Carlton 21 Collingwood 22 Hawthorn 23 Collingwood 24 Richmond 25 Brisbane Lions 26 Fremantle 27 Western Bulldogs 28 Kangaroos 29 West Coast 30 Port Adelaide 31 Geelong 32 Adelaide 33 St Kilda 34 West Coast 35 Geelong

Round 3 *

36 Carlton 37 Collingwood 38 Hawthorn 39 Essendon 40 Richmond 41 Brisbane Lions 42 Fremantle 43 Kangaroos 44 Port Adelaide 45 Kangaroos 46 Western Bulldogs 47 Geelong 48 Adelaide 49 St Kilda 50 West Coast 51 Essendon

Round 4

52 Sydney 53 Collingwood 54 Melbourne 55 Sydney 56 Western Bulldogs 57 Brisbane Lions 58 Fremantle 59 Western Bulldogs 60 Port Adelaide 61 Sydney 62 Melbourne 63 Geelong 64 Adelaide 65 St Kilda 66 West Coast 67 Sydney

Round 5

68 Carlton 69 Collingwood 70 Hawthorn 71 Essendon 72 Richmond 73 Brisbane Lions 74 Fremantle 75 Western Bulldogs 76 Melbourne 77 Kangaroos 78 Port Adelaide 79 Geelong 80 Adelaide 81 St Kilda 82 West Coast 83 Sydney

Round 6

84 Carlton 85 Collingwood 86 Hawthorn 87 Essendon 88 Richmond 89 Brisbane Lions 90 Fremantle 91 Western Bulldogs 92 Melbourne 93 Kangaroos 94 Port Adelaide 95 Geelong 96 Adelaide 97 St Kilda 98 West Coast 99 Sydney

* father/son selections can be made in the third round.

DAY FIVE - PICKETT FENCES

Shortly before the 2004 AFL National Draft, Jenny McAsey wrote an intriguing (and almost prophetic) article in The Australian newspaper outlining some of the recruiting and list management philosophies recently embraced by Sydney Swans coach Paul Roos.

Like many other progressive sports coaches and administrators Roos has taken on board the radical views of Billy Beane, general manager of California's Oakland Athletics Major League baseball team, as portrayed in the US best selling book "Moneyball" by author Michael Lewis.

Beane disdains the conventional wisdom that it is of paramount importance to build up large stocks of raw, young, untried talent in order to develop a winning team. He uses statistical data to back up the view that there are many of instances where players can add value to a team sport from outside the traditional national draft system. A major example is the concept of picking up late maturers.

"The draft has never been anything but a f***ing crapshoot," Billy Beane had taken to saying. "We take 50 guys and we celebrate if two of them make it. In what other business is two for 50 a success? If you did that in the stock market you'd go broke."

That's a quote from Lewis' book and Roos believes that this view applies with respect to the AFL Draft. Earlier in the week, I provided some data on the team Roos coached to the 2005 AFL premiership which demonstrated that there were very few early draft selections within the ranks - certainly nothing like their opponents on grand final day. The West Coast Eagles included choice early draft picks such as Chris Judd, Ashley Sampi, Michael Gardiner, Drew Banfield and David Wirrpunda - all of who were in the top five of their drafts (although Wirrpunda was picked up in a special draft for 16 year olds).

Roos and his team carried out a study of draft selections over 13 drafts between 1989 and 2001 which showed that if you had selection 10 in a given draft, the prospect of that player developing into a "good to very good player" was around 40 per cent.

On that basis, and because of Sydney's fifth placing in the 2004 season, Roos determined to sell his club's first round selection (number 15) for a mature ruckman, Melbourne's Darren Jolly, rather than to chance it in the draft with an untried novice which he considered a high risk way to build future success.

The theory even questions the various tests that 17 and 18 year old hopefuls are put through at the National Draft Camp because research shows only two - reaction time and speed over 20 metres - bear any relation to a youngster's chances of being a good AFL player

"What Billy Beane basically said was don't take high school kids because they are normally a bust, and that is exactly what we are doing in our draft. He is attacking our whole system, saying it doesn't work," Roos said.

"My view is the draft age is too young because I don't think the guys are fully developed. That is why a lot of them don't go on and play much AFL football. They don't get bigger, they don't get quicker, they don't develop the way the clubs project they will. It is just crystal-balling."

By adopting this standard into drafting practice Roos went into the 2004 National Draft with three selections 31, 47 and 61 and he used the later two on players with existing AFL experience - former Cat David Spriggs and a previously delisted Swan, Heath James. Neither of these choices proved to be particularly inspirational but what would they have uncovered had the Swans gone for teenagers at that level? Probably, players like Heath Grundy who they picked up in the rookie draft anyway.

The success of Roos' approach underlines how difficult it is to assess the performance of the AFL clubs in trade weeks. The clubs that under performed in 2005 - Carlton, Collingwood and Hawthorn - went into the week with two selections each in the top six. These are the best of the draft choices, the ones where the chances of finding a "good to very good player" are scientifically a little over the 50% mark xxx even in an ordinary draft year which is exactly how the pundits look at the current draft pool.

The very early draft choices are still valuable but once you get past the top ten, xxx worth looking at other options. Losing lower selections xxx particularly anything below 20 in this skinny draft is not a high-risk strategy if you believe in Billy Beane.

The problem with the 2005 exchange period is that there were not that many mature age players of any quality available in the trades. Leaving aside names like Luke Power and Peter Everitt that were never in the serious discussion stages, only two of the "Big Four" names made it through the sale yard - Jonathan Hay and Daniel Motlop - and it can be argued that both were damaged goods in any event for both on and off field reasons.

The majority of the others were expendables but the stand out traded player in my estimation is Port Adelaide's Byron Pickett who Melbourne gained in exchange for its second round draft pick (28) and a swap of later selections that were well outside the comfort zone of valued draft picks.

Pickett has already played in two premiership teams and a little over twelve months ago was a Norm Smith Medallist in Port Adelaide's premiership side. He's a hard-bodied midfielder/forward who will add some much needed toughness into the Demons' line up.

With respect to the Magpies and Hawks who accumulated additional draft selections, the proof of the pudding will not materialise until a long way into the future and will depend of the skills of their recruiting people. Carlton kept its selections intact but it also kept a worrisome player in Brendan Fevola and re-contracted Lance Whitnall at a much higher remuneration than what they would have preferred. Scott Camporeale and Matthew Lappin remain in limbo.

Although these lowly clubs are being hailed for having courage in going for youth and building up a stockpile of early draft choices, they may well rue the fact that in doing so, they have ignored the science of drafting.