Phantom Drafts - 2018

[Pink Freud 364]

Is it too early for one of those Phantom Drafts and is there one around that goes as far as the second and third rounds where the MFC choices are going to be?

[spirit of norm smith 16,450]

Yes too soon for full listing.  Need to finalise free agent moves and trade deals. 

As is I can help with some possible names

At pick 36-38 for MFC likely pick in 2nd round 

Mitch Riordan Stingrays u18s

Tom McKenzie  Knights u18s

Toby Bedford (next gen MFC academy) Stingrays u18s

Joe Ayton-Delaney  Chargers u18s

Fraser Turner Tas u/18s

At pick 48-50 MFC pick from Crows likely to be VFL pickup such as 

Jay Lockhart  Casey

Marty Hore Collingwood vfl

Sam Collins Werribee

Corey Rich  Frankston 

Chris Jansen  nth Melb vfl

 

[spirit of norm smith 16,450]

It’s likely Taylor will have to find a few late draft gems. Late draft smokies or rookie chances include

Lachlan McDonnell. Stingrays vfl

Mitch Lewis. Casey vfl

Laitham Vandermeer  Murray u18s

Jake Aarts  Richmond vfl

Each have some special skills and huge upside footy ability.  

 

[Mt. Dee-Maaan 608]

7 hours ago, Pink Freud said:

Is it too early for one of those Phantom Drafts and is there one around that goes as far as the second and third rounds where the MFC choices are going to be?

past first round yes.. but hell what else we got to do?! lol

[spirit of norm smith 16,450]

Top 10 now worth more interest to Demons fans if we get 1 or 2 with the probable Hogan deal  

heres some names 

1- Sam Walsh

2- Jack Lukosius 

3- Izak Rankine

4- Bailey Smith

5- Max King

6- Jack Bytel

7- Ben King

8- Conor Rozee

9- Riley Collier-Dawkins

10- Curtis Taylor

[Lucifers Hero 39,758]

Folks, just remember we have Live Pick Trading at the draft. 

The picks we have at the end of the Trade period will just be the draft order starting position. Clubs can trade up or down the draft as it progresses.

Any phantom drafts will be, well just more phantom than usual! ?

 

It will be interesting to see if we keep a high pick (4/5/6 or 9/10) from the Hogan trade whether we use it or cash in the chips on draft night!

LPT presents a nice challenge for recruiting staff - much more second guessing other clubs than usual.

[Spirit of the Demon 251]

7 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Folks, just remember we have Live Pick Trading at the draft. 

The picks we have at the end of the Trade period will just be the draft order starting position. Clubs can trade up or down the draft as it progresses.

Any phantom drafts will be, well just more phantom than usual! ?

It will be interesting to see if we keep a high pick (4/5/6 or 9/10) from the Hogan trade whether we use it or cash in the chips on draft night!

LPT presents a nice challenge for recruiting staff - much more second guessing other clubs than usual.

So there is absolutely no value in any phantom drafts at this juncture but it’s still worth looking at who the top 20 or 30 prospects are - even as a matter of curiosity.

[old55 23,561]

Four South Australians in Cal Twomey's latest Phantom Form Guide:

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-09-16/cal-twomeys-phantom-form-guide-september

2. Lukosius
3: Rankine
...
8. Rozee
10. Hately

Port hold 9 and is expected to get 10 from North for Polec from North.  That would put them right in the frame for Rozee and Hately.

Adelaide holds 7 & 15 (from us for Lever).

Gold Coast will get 3 as compensation for Lynch and these picks will go out by one.  GC will hold 2 & 3 - if Port or Adelaide want to get into the frame for Lukosius and Rankine they probably need to trade with GC.

A lot of the Hogan / May discussion with Freo has been based around Freo trading pick 4 and 22 (5 & 23 after Lynch) that they receive from Brisbane for Neale to Port for 9 & 10 and then on trading one of them to us.  This reading of the play suggests that pick 5 may not be early enough to get into the Lukosius / Rankine frame - it looks like any deal has to be struck with GC to me..

[Lucifers Hero 39,758]

4 hours ago, Fifty-5 said:

Four South Australians in Cal Twomey's latest Phantom Form Guide:

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-09-16/cal-twomeys-phantom-form-guide-september

2. Lukosius
3: Rankine
...
8. Rozee
10. Hately

Port hold 9 and is expected to get 10 from North for Polec from North.  That would put them right in the frame for Rozee and Hately.

Adelaide holds 7 & 15 (from us for Lever).

Gold Coast will get 3 as compensation for Lynch and these picks will go out by one.  GC will hold 2 & 3 - if Port or Adelaide want to get into the frame for Lukosius and Rankine they probably need to trade with GC.

A lot of the Hogan / May discussion with Freo has been based around Freo trading pick 4 and 22 (5 & 23 after Lynch) that they receive from Brisbane for Neale to Port for 9 & 10 and then on trading one of them to us.  This reading of the play suggests that pick 5 may not be early enough to get into the Lukosius / Rankine frame - it looks like any deal has to be struck with GC to me..

Some interesting scenarios there. 

One wonders whether Adelaide (or Port) will try and entice the Saints to give up pick 3 eg for Adelaide's 15 and 19 and next year's 1st round or something else (Port have 21 and 27 to play with as well as 9 and ?10).  Saints need to find a decent pick for Hannebury, a less decent pick for Kent and picks for their other targets. 

I wonder if there is a 'spycam' set up in the respective SA club meeting rooms!!

Edited October 1, 2018 by Lucifer's Hero

[old55 23,561]

1 hour ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Some interesting scenarios there. 

One wonders whether Adelaide (or Port) will try and entice the Saints to give up pick 3 eg for Adelaide's 15 and 19 and next year's 1st round or something else (Port have 21 and 27 to play with as well as 9 and ?10).  Saints need to find a decent pick for Hannebury, a less decent pick for Kent and picks for their other targets. 

I wonder if there is a 'spycam' set up in the respective SA club meeting rooms!!

Yes good point.  Saints could down grade 3 (4 after Lynch) with Adelaide or Port and use the pick split to get Hannebury and still have an early pick.  They have said they won't use 3 on Hannebury and their next pick is a 4th rounder so they need to do something like that.

That's another potential deal ahead of any deal with Brisbane that would flow through Freo to us.  Access to those 7, 9 & 10 picks via Freo for May is looking tricky.  The Hogan compensation is fair at 2 early firsts and it might be that Freo only has 4 (from Neale) & 5 (5 & 6 after Lynch) to offer - good for us!

[Whispering_Jack 30,054]

Knightmare’s Phantom Drafts always make good reading and, of course, will take on more significance if Melbourne can trade into a 2018 first round pick and then keep it until the draft takes place.

Chris Doerre's first round AFL Phantom Draft

[spirit of norm smith 16,450]

On 9/28/2018 at 11:08 PM, spirit of norm smith said:

It’s likely Taylor will have to find a few late draft gems. Late draft smokies or rookie chances include

Lachlan McDonnell. Stingrays vfl

Mitch Lewis. Casey vfl

Laitham Vandermeer  Murray u18s

Jake Aarts  Richmond vfl

Each have some special skills and huge upside footy ability.  

 

Lachlan McDonnell is on the radar hopefully. Skilled midfield/ half forward.  Good pace shown in state combine. 2.94 seconds for the 20 metres is quick. As quick as anyone. 

[Matsuo Basho 1,053]

On 10/1/2018 at 10:56 AM, Lucifer's Hero said:

Some interesting scenarios there. 

One wonders whether Adelaide (or Port) will try and entice the Saints to give up pick 3 eg for Adelaide's 15 and 19 and next year's 1st round or something else (Port have 21 and 27 to play with as well as 9 and ?10).  Saints need to find a decent pick for Hannebury, a less decent pick for Kent and picks for their other targets. 

I wonder if there is a 'spycam' set up in the respective SA club meeting rooms!!

Trading up for St Kilda’s pick 3 (4 after Suns’ Lynch compo) still won’t get the Adelaide clubs a look in at either Lokusius or Rankine. Nearly all recent phantom drafts have those boys going in the top 3. 

Which is why I think Port and Adelaide will take their current picks to the draft. 

That means Freo will have 4 & 5 and that will be the MFC’s starting demand for Hogan. I don’t think that will be where negotiations end though. For me Freo’s 2019 will come into play. It’s the compromise that will break the deadlock on that deal.

Edited October 6, 2018 by EnterTheDragon

[old55 23,561]

5 hours ago, EnterTheDragon said:

Trading up for St Kilda’s pick 3 (4 after Suns’ Lynch compo) still won’t get the Adelaide clubs a look in at either Lokusius or Rankine. Nearly all recent phantom drafts have those boys going in the top 3. 

Which is why I think Port and Adelaide will take their current picks to the draft. 

That means Freo will have 4 & 5 and that will be the MFC’s starting demand for Hogan. I don’t think that will be where negotiations end though. For me Freo’s 2019 will come into play. It’s the compromise that will break the deadlock on that deal.

Yes looks like they need to get to GC's picks 2 and 3 for Lukosius and Rankine.

http://m.afl.com.au/news/2018-09-30/indicative-draft-order-post-grand-final-edition

Twomey has Rozee at 8 (and he may go earlier after a good draft camp) and Hately at 10.

Port will have 10 and 11 after Lynch compo and Polec trade. Adelaide will have 8 and 16.

It would be interesting if they both miss out on all 4 SA players. 

I suspect Port will try to trade up if they like Rozee and Hately.

Edited October 6, 2018 by Fifty-5

[Lucifers Hero 39,758]

9 hours ago, EnterTheDragon said:

Trading up for St Kilda’s pick 3 (4 after Suns’ Lynch compo) still won’t get the Adelaide clubs a look in at either Lokusius or Rankine. Nearly all recent phantom drafts have those boys going in the top 3. 

Which is why I think Port and Adelaide will take their current picks to the draft. 

That means Freo will have 4 & 5 and that will be the MFC’s starting demand for Hogan. I don’t think that will be where negotiations end though. For me Freo’s 2019 will come into play. It’s the compromise that will break the deadlock on that deal.

Not meaning to be be defensive but my post was a week ago (and it still looks on the money)! 

My main point was that Port wanted one of the SA lads and Freo's pick 4 or 5 (Neale) wouldn't get the job done thereby debunking speculation that Port would trade them 9 and 10.  I was hypothesising that the Saints pick 3 would be a better option for Port. 

A week later, not much has changed in my view.  I am one of the few on here that never believed Port were remotely interested in doing the Freo deal. It was a media beat up swallowed hook line and sinker by many to salivate over the Hogan trade possibilities. 

You may be right that Saints pick 3 still won't be enough to get Lokusius or Rankine. There are rumours that they have asked GCS not to draft them.  I doubt GCS will draft both SA lads if they are a flight risk.  If they draft only one of them, the Saints pick 3 will get the other.

To me this side-show is the more fascinating part of the trade period!  What will make it even more fascinating is what happens if Lokusius or Rankine don't go top 3 and what deals happen during the draft (Live Pick Trading).  I reckon not many in the media or on Demonland seem aware of LPT impact on picks at the draft.  I suspect not many DL's read this thread as I posted on it a week or two ago.

 

To put another hypothesis, if GCS end up with Pick 5 (Neale/Hogan/May trade) they may be prepared to deal #2 to Port for 9 and 10 and they can take Lynch pick (3), 5, 9 and 10 to the draft.  A very nice bounty to choose players that are more likely to stay.

 

To the Hogan trade.  As I never thought Port's pick 9 and 10 were bound for Freo, I never thought we would get 4 and 5 and that pick 5 (Neale) and Freo's first round 2019, (likely to be a top 10) to be far more realistic.  Maybe some later pick swaps in Freo's favour.  Who knows GCS may want an extra 2019 top 10 pick and instead of the 2018 pick 5, be willing to take Freo's 2019 Ist rounder for May (if my GCS/Port hypothesis above were to happen and they get 9 and10 this year).

Believe it or not I don't usually hypothesise on picks and players as it is the end result that counts but the sideshow re the SA posturing was far too fascinating to not air somewhere! 

Note: all pick references are before Lynch pick 3.

Edit:  Love your posting and what you have brought to his site for the trade period...where have you been...great value!

 

Edited October 6, 2018 by Lucifer's Hero

[Dippy 17]

Hey dude. All 3 SA boys are going to be stars of the game. Unfortunately the Phantom might have it a bit wrong. Lokusius, rankine and rozee will all go top 5. If you want one of them, you will need pick 2 to 5. Rozee killed in the sanfl fanel awesome off half back, great user of the ball. Rankine a gun mid, will make any team alot better. Lokusius could become anything. 

For the dees and to suit our needs now, i would pick rozee. A bit like salem, but taller and a better mark, but salem is a better short kick. 

[Lucifers Hero 39,758]

11 minutes ago, Dippy said:

Hey dude. All 3 SA boys are going to be stars of the game. Unfortunately the Phantom might have it a bit wrong. Lokusius, rankine and rozee will all go top 5. If you want one of them, you will need pick 2 to 5. Rozee killed in the sanfl fanel awesome off half back, great user of the ball. Rankine a gun mid, will make any team alot better. Lokusius could become anything. 

For the dees and to suit our needs now, i would pick rozee. A bit like salem, but taller and a better mark, but salem is a better short kick. 

Yep, pick 2-5 are needed for those guys!  'Enter the Dragon', you and I agree on that. 

The question was will it be GCS who pick them or will they trade out of pick 2 or 3 if they are going to pass on the SA lads.  If they trade out of both they could have pick 7, 9, 10 and 15 from Adel and Port and then add pick 5 for May. 

No point GCS taking future stars if they leave after two years!

Edited October 6, 2018 by Lucifer's Hero

[Dippy 17]

37 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Yep, pick 2-5 are needed for those guys!  'Enter the Dragon', you and I agree on that. 

The question was will it be GCS who pick them or will they trade out of pick 2 or 3 if they are going to pass on the SA lads.  If they trade out of both they could have pick 7, 9, 10 and 15 from Adel and Port and then add pick 5 for May. 

No point GCS taking future stars if they leave after two years!

Good question. 

Pick 2 and 3 are guns

Pick 7 9 10 and 15 are ?

[Matsuo Basho 1,053]

4 hours ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Yep, pick 2-5 are needed for those guys!  'Enter the Dragon', you and I agree on that. 

The question was will it be GCS who pick them or will they trade out of pick 2 or 3 if they are going to pass on the SA lads.  If they trade out of both they could have pick 7, 9, 10 and 15 from Adel and Port and then add pick 5 for May. 

No point GCS taking future stars if they leave after two years!

If you asked any of the potential draftees privately I would bet 99% would say they prefer not to be drafted by the Suns. Who would? They are a basket case at present.

But the Suns can’t afford to make decisions based on that sentiment. If they have any hope of resurrecting themselves as an AFL club they must take the best available talent and back themselves in to retain them. Otherwise they may as well shut up shop today.

The AFL have sent their top administrator up there (Evans) and he will be doing just that. 

[spirit of norm smith 16,450]

As it is (12 October) MFC has picks 36,46,54,62,65. Likely players at these picks would be -

#36- Tom McKenzie for pace and outside midfield potential or Ely Smith for his strength and pure midfield style. MFC might need to use pick on Toby Bedford if nominated by others. Might also see if a top 25 player has slipped such as Sydney Stack (pace and think Shaun Burgoyne like) or Jack Bytel (footballers footballer like a Jack Ziebell). I’d prefer a young midfielder at this pick  

#46- Toby Bedford. Probably would get nominated by this point.  Has the pace and goal smarts that we need. Otherwise look at Joe-Ayton-Delaney or Fraser Turner both of whom are running machines with pace and footy skills. 

#54- it’s still a chance for Ayton-Delaney or Turner here but we might look at VFL types like Marty Hore or Brett Bewley or Jay Lockhart. They represent solid skills and ready to go depth potential. Perhaps a wildcard here is Jason Carter (WA U18s running half back).

#62 & 65-  late stage pick so look at needs, potential and mature types like the VFL guys. Could be a Mitch Riordan here who was top 25-30 (midfielder who has the Luke Parker pedigree) before getting injured mid year. Others likely would be Lachlan McDonnell (pacy half forward), Campbell Hustwaite (leader in the Luke Hodge style of player) or Noah Gown (smart 3rd tall type forward). 

A 60s spec pick (not a smoky) if available is Connor Idun. The kid from Geelong has improved so much in 2018, he scored a combine invite and named all Australian full back. His only 193cms but could a very handy CHB (think Josh Gibson). 

[spirit of norm smith 16,450]

Crystal ball view to pick 28  

Very cloudy though !!! 

1-Blues. Sam Walsh 

2- Suns.  Jack Lukosius 

3- Suns. Conor Rozee

4- Saints. Bailey Smith

5- Power. Izak Rankine

6- Suns. Max King

7- Bulldogs   Ben King

8- Crows. Jackson  Hateley

 9- Giants. Riley Collier-Dawkins 

10- Power   Luke Valente

match - Nick Blakey. Swans

11- Giants. Jye Caldwell 

match - Tarryn Thomas. kangas 

12- Cats.  Ed McHenry 

13- Crows   Bailey Williams

match - Isaac Quaynor. pies

14- Freo  Ian Hill

15- Power  Curtis Taylor

16- Crows  Ely Smith

match - Rylee West. Bulldogs 

17- Tigers  Sam Sturt

18- Lions  Liam Stocker 

19- Giants  Zak Butters  

20- Eagles. Jordan  Clark

match - Will Kelly  Pies 

21- Crows  Jez McLennan 

22- Eagles   Jarrod Cameron 

23- Demons  Xavier O’Halloran   

Match - Bailey Scott  Kangas 

24-Suns  Tom McKenzie

25- Giants  Riley Bowman

26- Swans  Sydney Stack 

match - Connor McFayden  Lions  

27- Bulldogs  Chayce Jones 

28- Demons  Xavier Duursma 

 

[dee-tox 4,835]

18 minutes ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Crystal ball view to pick 28  

Very cloudy though !!! 

1-Blues. Sam Walsh 

2- Suns.  Jack Lukosius 

3- Suns. Conor Rozee

4- Saints. Bailey Smith

5- Power. Izak Rankine

6- Suns. Max King

7- Bulldogs   Ben King

8- Crows. Jackson  Hateley

 9- Giants. Riley Collier-Dawkins 

10- Power   Luke Valente

match - Nick Blakey. Swans

11- Giants. Jye Caldwell 

match - Tarryn Thomas. kangas 

12- Cats.  Ed McHenry 

13- Crows   Bailey Williams

match - Isaac Quaynor. pies

14- Freo  Ian Hill

15- Power  Curtis Taylor

16- Crows  Ely Smith

match - Rylee West. Bulldogs 

17- Tigers  Sam Sturt

18- Lions  Liam Stocker 

19- Giants  Zak Butters  

20- Eagles. Jordan  Clark

match - Will Kelly  Pies 

21- Crows  Jez McLennan 

22- Eagles   Jarrod Cameron 

23- Demons  Xavier O’Halloran   

Match - Bailey Scott  Kangas 

24-Suns  Tom McKenzie

25- Giants  Riley Bowman

26- Swans  Sydney Stack 

match - Connor McFayden  Lions  

27- Bulldogs  Chayce Jones 

28- Demons  Xavier Duursma 

 

Interesting take. Have seen Duursma go as high as 10 in some phantoms.

[Return to Glory 8,436]

We won't get Duursma

[spirit of norm smith 16,450]

I’m optimistic about Duursma. I am a fan of Tom McKenzie for his pace and hope he might last to 28. He is another gun. 

Edited October 19, 2018 by spirit of norm smith
X

[RalphiusMaximus 6,048]

4 hours ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Crystal ball view to pick 28 

23- Demons  Xavier O’Halloran   

28- Demons  Xavier Duursma 

 

Bit of X-factor there.