A Day at the Races

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

I think the exotic went very well, both weeks 3 out of 4 with only 6 picks is pretty good going. We need @Biffen to find us the roughie we keep missing.

I think half the battle is selecting the right race to begin with. I think both weeks thats been spot on.

I do think we need a few more picks, maybe 7 or 8 for a successful FF. Perhaps we can find some others or maybe give the people who select correctly 2 picks the following week.

But very well done team on what was a tricky day.

[Biffen 12,949]

Sorry I forgot to post on time but given I had another COAD, I've  spared you some terrible tips.

I will scour the Sunday Form to find a "redeemer".

[Biffen 12,949]

Race 3 No 8 Ballarat today at 1400 hrs.

Given its a maiden with very little exposed form I think Thereforyou is at ridiculous odds.14 starts with 7 places and they've engaged D.Holland.

41-1 fixed.

My kind of odds.

2 others quite short  so a boxed tri/f4 in play.

Bon chance.

 

[Macca 17,131]

2 hours ago, Wadda We Sing said:

I think the exotic went very well, both weeks 3 out of 4 with only 6 picks is pretty good going. We need @Biffen to find us the roughie we keep missing.

I think half the battle is selecting the right race to begin with. I think both weeks thats been spot on.

I do think we need a few more picks, maybe 7 or 8 for a successful FF. Perhaps we can find some others or maybe give the people who select correctly 2 picks the following week.

But very well done team on what was a tricky day.

I'd leave it at 6 (for the time being) as people can always add 1 or 2 choices of their own Wadda.  For instance,  a few here made mention of Tagaloa but again,  we can't go too wide.  And Tagaloa missed getting into the finish anyway.  Banquo was another but there has to be a limit. 

The Trifecta can be a preferred mode as well so 6 picks is definitely enough for that type of exotic.  For instance,  I've swung over to the Trifecta option with a smaller wager on the F4.

And if we keep missing on the F4,  interest will die.  From my point of view,  the exercise was highly successful but it looks like I was the only 1 who took out a trifecta with the choices.

And having 7 or 8 choices can be an expensive exercise too.  I reckon we run with 6 but as you've indicated,  we have to pick the right race.

Next week there are 3 group 1's but on 3 separate days Friday (Moir Stakes WFA 1000M)  Saturday (Golden Rose 3YO SW 1400m) Sunday (Underwood Stakes WFA 1800m)

Keep in mind that the Golden Rose might only attract a small field (8 starters last year) whilst the exotic dividends for the Moir & Underwood were very healthy last year.  But neither race is held on the Saturday.

There may be other options (another Group 2 or Group 3 race out of Sydney on the Saturday?) but I reckon the choice should be a high profile race where the interest is high to begin with.

I'd probably lean towards the Underwood over the Moir as we've got more time to put the exotic together.  But it depends on the field ... a small field won't suit. 

Looking ahead the Turnbull St,  Epsom Hcp & Metro Hcp are being held the weekend aftet next.  All Group 1's and all big fields (generally)

 

Footnote:  Black Heart Bart won last year's Underwood at 100-1!

[Macca 17,131]

Venturing off to Sha tin today and it's a good card for the exotics.  I've gone down the Exacta's path as I find the dividends can often be quite healthy up there, all things considered

Races to look out for are races 4,  5,  7 & 10 (in terms of good betting races)

Full Card Sha Tin (Fields, Form & Odds)

 

[Macca 17,131]

18 hours ago, JV7 said:

Cant say I took the tri Macca? Got a multi going with 

Probabeel - Win

Dollar for Dollar - Place

Richmond - Win

Hawthorn - Win 

????

Winner Winner

That's the sort of news I like to read about on this thread

We need lots of good news stories!

Go Freo!

[Macca 17,131]

Replays of the main features from yesterday

 

 

 

 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

2 hours ago, Macca said:

I'd leave it at 6 (for the time being) as people can always add 1 or 2 choices of their own Wadda.  For instance,  a few here made mention of Tagaloa but again,  we can't go too wide.  And Tagaloa missed getting into the finish anyway.  Banquo was another but there has to be a limit. 

The Trifecta can be a preferred mode as well so 6 picks is definitely enough for that type of exotic.  For instance,  I've swung over to the Trifecta option with a smaller wager on the F4.

And if we keep missing on the F4,  interest will die.  From my point of view,  the exercise was highly successful but it looks like I was the only 1 who took out a trifecta with the choices.

And having 7 or 8 choices can be an expensive exercise too.  I reckon we run with 6 but as you've indicated,  we have to pick the right race.

Next week there are 3 group 1's but on 3 separate days Friday (Moir Stakes WFA 1000M)  Saturday (Golden Rose 3YO SW 1400m) Sunday (Underwood Stakes WFA 1800m)

Keep in mind that the Golden Rose might only attract a small field (8 starters last year) whilst the exotic dividends for the Moir & Underwood were very healthy last year.  But neither race is held on the Saturday.

There may be other options (another Group 2 or Group 3 race out of Sydney on the Saturday?) but I reckon the choice should be a high profile race where the interest is high to begin with.

I'd probably lean towards the Underwood over the Moir as we've got more time to put the exotic together.  But it depends on the field ... a small field won't suit. 

Looking ahead the Turnbull St,  Epsom Hcp & Metro Hcp are being held the weekend aftet next.  All Group 1's and all big fields (generally)

 

Footnote:  Black Heart Bart won last year's Underwood at 100-1!

Ok well might be good to hear from a few others as well mate. I thought the idea was to put together a FF and thats what i was working on solving. You wanna move the goalposts fine. 

8 picks is not too expensive either. i had 3 x 5 x7 x 9 yesterday and had 3.30% of the pool which paid more than the trifecta. It cost 11 dollars. The point of an exotic bet is a decent collect, ie 1K+ which is very doable. With the good punting brains around here its a very achievable outcome and nobody is going to get bored.

As far as next week goes, the first race i would look at is Russian Caravans race. You know it will win anything over 1600m and i havent had a look yet, but that might be a first port of call. Im open to any suggestions from anyone.

[Macca 17,131]

2 hours ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Ok well might be good to hear from a few others as well mate. I thought the idea was to put together a FF and thats what i was working on solving. You wanna move the goalposts fine. 

8 picks is not too expensive either. i had 3 x 5 x7 x 9 yesterday and had 3.30% of the pool which paid more than the trifecta. It cost 11 dollars. The point of an exotic bet is a decent collect, ie 1K+ which is very doable. With the good punting brains around here its a very achievable outcome and nobody is going to get bored.

As far as next week goes, the first race i would look at is Russian Caravans race. You know it will win anything over 1600m and i havent had a look yet, but that might be a first port of call. Im open to any suggestions from anyone.

I don't have a problem with what you are suggesting but you don't want to make it too difficult to manage.

For instance,  which horses do we have to win or finish 2nd,  3rd or 4th.  Who has the extra choices?  Who finalises the order?

I certainly wasn't moving any goalposts either.  I've said all along that people can use the choices as they see fit. As I chose to do by not only having a F4 on the race but a trifecta as well.  Paid off too.  Create thinking won me a tidy sum

As for the choices,  I deliberately left myself out last week so everyone else could have a go.  As it was,  there was a slot available at the end but there may not have been.

You make it more complicated and if that doesn't work then what?  What's the fall back position?

And you can't force people to put on a F4.  What if they don't like the look of the choices? 

As far as I'm concerned people can do whatever they like with the choices.  Contributing to the team exotic and then not having a bet on the race at all is an option too.

For instance,  I'd welcome Go the Biff's input even though he doesn't bet at all.  Knows his horses that bloke.

I've got a mate who is the same ... follows the horses and knows more that I do but he doesn't gamble.

Edited September 20, 2020 by Macca

[Macca 17,131]

Here are the odds for the 3 big group 1's next week.  From a personal point of view I'll be having an exotic bet or 3 on all 3 of the races regardless of which race we decide upon (for the group exotic) F4,  Trifecta or even an Exacta.  Each to their own.  

So I'm not fussed on which race we pick.  There are other Group races that might appeal as well so if you see a good betting race,  let everyone here know.  It's got to be a decent race though,  Benchmark races are fraught with danger unless you've got a tip.  Money for jam for the bookies. 

Whether we have a default pick is debatable as well (although not including Behemoth yesterday would have been problematic) ... having a default pick allows everyone else a clear pick so if there is a standout,  I'm in favour of including that horse automatically as we'll almost certainly end up including it anyway

For instance, do we want to leave 'Russian Camelot' out of the Underwood,  'Anders' (if it runs) out of the Moir or 'Rothfire' out of the Golden Rose? 

e.g. for 2 years in a row now (the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes) the clear favourite has won and the exotics have all payed exceptionally well

n.b.  the Underwood Stakes is on Sunday next weekend as it's traditionally the GF weekend

As always,  any feedback is most welcome

Edited September 20, 2020 by Macca

[Macca 17,131]

7 races down at Sha Tin and Moreira has already ridden 4 winners.

He's got 3 very winnable chances in the final 3 races as well. 

Edit:  5 from 8 now for the little master. 

Edited September 20, 2020 by Macca

[Gorgoroth 13,220]

I will chip in my 2c and say I like 6, give choice without overwhelming me. 
I did a f4 with the 6 boxed and then another where I added tagoa and chose who would win and second etc.

[Macca 17,131]

1 minute ago, Gorgoroth said:

I will chip in my 2c and say I like 6, give choice without overwhelming me. 
I did a f4 with the 6 boxed and then another where I added tagoa and chose who would win and second etc.

I agree,  being creative with the 6 picks to work with is the key.  A few here are kicking themselves that they didn't take the trifecta but I did say I was going down that path.

I didn't go down the multiple parh but if I did I would have included Tagaloa & Banquo. 

The one we missed (Archenar Star) had the run of the race and did no work.  But hindsight is a wonderful thing isn't it Gorg?

[Gorgoroth 13,220]

18 minutes ago, Macca said:

I agree,  being creative with the 6 picks to work with is the key.  A few here are kicking themselves that they didn't take the trifecta but I did say I was going down that path.

I didn't go down the multiple parh but if I did I would have included Tagaloa & Banquo. 

The one we missed (Archenar Star) had the run of the race and did no work.  But hindsight is a wonderful thing isn't it Gorg?

I looked at the tri and then didn’t and went all in on the F4, but that’s the hard choices you need to make. At the end of the day it’s all guess work, some more educated than others. I’m by no means a knowledgeable punter of horses, but trying to get back into it. When I was a teenager and into early 20s I knew what horses liked what tracks, conditions, weights etc etc etc but ai found that took the fun out of it a bit. 
But at the end of the day I always try and go with the gut.

[Macca 17,131]

10 minutes ago, Gorgoroth said:

I looked at the tri and then didn’t and went all in on the F4, but that’s the hard choices you need to make. At the end of the day it’s all guess work, some more educated than others. I’m by no means a knowledgeable punter of horses, but trying to get back into it. When I was a teenager and into early 20s I knew what horses liked what tracks, conditions, weights etc etc etc but ai found that took the fun out of it a bit. 
But at the end of the day I always try and go with the gut.

Follow the races quite closely Gorg but I'm still a complete novice.  haha

Bet small to win reasonable amounts.  Try to get about 7-1 up to 9-1 in any sort of bet.  I'm a small-time percentage punter.

Ended up in front at Sha Tin today but I got a late double at 7-1 thanks to Moreira (race 8 & race 10)

He rode 6 winners today and I got some sort of collect on all of his winners.  Mind you,  he's often on the best horse in the race. 

My adage ... any time you end up in front at the end of the day is a win. 

I follow J-Mac's mounts on a Wednesday up in Sydney.  Again,  more of a percentage play with a few small bets.  Works the same as Moreira (or Purton) All 3 get the best mounts but they're all top rate jockeys.

The only time I try to win big is with a big multi using our tips.  A coffee bet only though.

And the exotics in a big race or 2 on the weekend ... using our combined tips if possible. 

 

[Gorgoroth 13,220]

I’m the same Macca, small bets. Love my multis on footy etc but never do great at them, had 7 bonus bets last week and 4 this week. Curnow mis by 1 disposal, RB stopped at the half yard line for a TD, etc etc ha ha 

 

[JV7 2,375]

How was Behemoth chosen as the default pick ?

How many of us post best bets on a regular basis ? If is say 6 then honestly I think we all post one and like has been said people can do what they like with those selections add/remove etc.

End of the day each individual puts their own bet on however they like. I think yesterday as Macca said with Pretty Brazen & Dollar for Dollar shows sometimes a horse you wouldn't have entertained goes in on the back of another poster.

Edited September 20, 2020 by JV7

[Macca 17,131]

1 minute ago, JV7 said:

How was Behemoth chosen as the default pick ?

How many of us post best bets on a regular basis ? If is say 6 then honestly I think we all post one and like has been said people can do what they like with those selections add/remove etc.

End of the day each individual puts their own bet on however they like. I think yesterday as Macca said with Pretty Brazen & Dollar for Dollar shows sometimes a horse you wouldn't have entertained goes in on the back of another poster.

I threw out Behemoth as the default pick but did put it to posters if they had any objections

No one said anything so it stayed on top.

With these sorts of things all the posts need to be read carefully by all of us.  Myself inncluded.

We tried this a couple of years ago (5 picks for a trifecta) but it didn't take off ... even though we won first time up.  But there were only 3 regular posters back then so no surprise.

Back then when we put our tips up all of us were well aware of the standout horse and I'm sure none of us wanted to leave it out.

But by having a default choice that thinking is done for us.  And it won't be my choice,  it will be the choice.  The obvious choice.

We do that or run the risk of leaving out the standout choice. 

Bottom line is that we're all mug punters.  Most gamblers prefer to fly solo because that's our make up.

So this is a departure ... it may or may not work but it's worth a try.

[Dee Zephyr 19,331]

Personally, I didn’t mind Wadda’s suggestion of maybe taking it up a couple of picks. Any suggestions or input is appreciated.

Also happy with the majority to keep it at a single pick each if individuals feel it complicates matters. To be honest I don’t put a lot of thought into F4s, they are like a ‘quickpick’ to me. Chances of getting it are the same whether I box the 6 numbers here or go on my own, that’s the way I look at it anyway. 

At the end of the day like stated above, we do what we please with the selections. I might have decided to back a runner in a particular race early in the week then someone posts a different horse as their BB in that race. If it falls in a quaddie leg thank you, you’ve made it easy for me to throw that selection in as well. Mix and match, it’s just part of the fun for me here. 

[Macca 17,131]

49 minutes ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Personally, I didn’t mind Wadda’s suggestion of maybe taking it up a couple of picks. Any suggestions or input is appreciated.

Also happy with the majority to keep it at a single pick each if individuals feel it complicates matters. To be honest I don’t put a lot of thought into F4s, they are like a ‘quickpick’ to me. Chances of getting it are the same whether I box the 6 numbers here or go on my own, that’s the way I look at it anyway. 

At the end of the day like stated above, we do what we please with the selections. I might have decided to back a runner in a particular race early in the week then someone posts a different horse as their BB in that race. If it falls in a quaddie leg thank you, you’ve made it easy for me to throw that selection in as well. Mix and match, it’s just part of the fun for me here. 

Considering that you and Wadda make up 2 of the 3 originals on this thread I reckon we should go with the extra picks as you've suggested.

So 8?  9?  Hey,  go with a dozen if you prefer.

I'm really not all that fussed.  But if it gets too cumbersome don't be blaming me.

You and Wadda can moderate the whole thing because I'm not at all interested in moderating up to 9 or 10 picks.  Too much time involved and I haven't got the time.

Especially on a Saturday and what you're suggesting is almost certainly going to run into Saturday

So pick the race,  organise everyone and go to it.  Good luck DZ.

[Macca 17,131]

Boom sprinter 'Anders' is out of the Moir Stakes (Friday) due to a temperature. 

Was listed at $2,50 in the early markets

[Dee Zephyr 19,331]

21 minutes ago, Macca said:

Considering that you and Wadda make up 2 of the 3 originals on this thread I reckon we should go with the extra picks as you've suggested.

So 8?  9?  Hey,  go with a dozen if you prefer.

I'm really not all that fussed.  But if it gets too cumbersome don't be blaming me.

You and Wadda can moderate the whole thing because I'm not at all interested in moderating up to 9 or 10 picks.  Too much time involved and I haven't got the time.

Especially on a Saturday and what you're suggesting is almost certainly going to run into Saturday

So pick the race,  organise everyone and go to it.  Good luck DZ.

Firstly Macca, I don’t class myself as an original here.

I have not suggested we add extra picks. All I did was put my 2c in and say I didn’t mind the idea. There’s absolutely nothing wrong with people making suggestions. Some will like them, some won’t. You and others have made the points of why you think it should stay at one pick each and they are valid points.   

I also said I’m happy to stay as is which is what most on here prefer, so there’s no need for me pick to pick a race, organise everyone and get to it.

[Macca 17,131]

1 hour ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Firstly Macca, I don’t class myself as an original here.

I have not suggested we add extra picks. All I did was put my 2c in and say I didn’t mind the idea. There’s absolutely nothing wrong with people making suggestions. Some will like them, some won’t. You and others have made the points of why you think it should stay at one pick each and they are valid points.   

I also said I’m happy to stay as is which is what most on here prefer, so there’s no need for me pick to pick a race, organise everyone and get to it.

Not an original?  There's been just the 3 of us here primarily since the Spring of 2017.  Before that there was a total of 10 posts.  How are you not an original? 

But you can't have it both ways DZ ... go one way or the other and live with your decision. 

I reckon you and Wadda should run with your 9 or 10 pick exotic.  If it doesn't work who cares.  But it's your's & Wadda's idea so you're going to have to moderate it.  Every week.

But I can't see how it can work as you may as well just consult the form guide and cross out 3 or 4 and go with the rest.  There will be a lack of expertise attached.

The whole thing is now quite ridiculous

I was smart enough to take out a trifecta with the picks over the weekend.  So what?  Are people envious?  If so,  I couldn't GAF. 

Was I compelled to take out a F4 and that's it?  Have the loonie left infiltrated the thread?  Or perhaps the alt-right.

Now you and Wadda want to pick more than half the runners or more.  How are posters here supposed to decipher all the choices?  Are the 9 or 10 choices all winning chances? 

Do we box 10 and therefore pick up .001 percent of the dividend?  Happy days!

But go for it.  I'll be intrigued to see the outcome.  I just hope I'm not prompted every day for another tip.  "We need another tip"  FMD.

Can one do 2 or 3 picks at once to get it all out of the way?  How about my 3 lucky numbers,  will that do? 

2,  7,  11

Must remind myself to box those 3 in the next chosen team exotic event (if it ever happens)

 

Edited September 20, 2020 by Macca

[Dee Zephyr 19,331]

Wow @Macca, my idea? And because I’m an ‘original’ I should force people to add extra picks?

Wadda suggested something, some didn’t like it and that’s where it ends for me. 

Was fun while it lasted here, good luck for the spring mate. No hard feelings.

[Macca 17,131]

2 minutes ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Wow @Macca, my idea? And because I’m an ‘original’ I should force people to add extra picks?

Wadda suggested something, some didn’t like it and that’s where it ends for me. 

Was fun while it lasted here, good luck for the spring mate. No hard feelings.

Well it looks like Wadda is on his own organising his 10 pick exotic

Because I don't intend to run anything whilst there's an air of discontent

Good luck Wadda ... you going to draw the names out of a hat?  You might as well.