A Day at the Races

[binman 43,140]

22 hours ago, Macca said:

Some great racing coming up on Saturday both at Randwick & Flemington

• At Flemington Santa Ana Lane & Sunlight go at each other in the Gilgai Stakes - Santa Ana Lane will no doubt swoop late but will the horse catch Sunlight?
• In the Turnbull Stakes Mystic Journey,  Mr Quickie & maybe Rostropovich should fight out the finish.  Hartnell will no doubt be thereabouts
• And the winner of The Bart Cummings is ballot exempt for the Melbourne Cup.  Wolfe,  Surprise Baby & King Of Leogrance could easily fill out the first 3 placegetters
• Up at Randwick an old favourite of ADATR in Osborne Bulls is running in the Premiere Stakes Lets see if we can boot home Wadda's tip. 
• The Epsom Hcp looks a great race.  There are a stack of lightweight chances including Kolding & Rock but Te Akau Shark & Dreamforce can get into the finish.
• And in The Metropolitan it's a wide open affair with any number of chances.  The winner might end up gaining entry to the Caulfield Cup and/or the Melbourne Cup in terms of qualifying.  It's not a ballot exempt race but perhaps it should be or will be down the track (if RV & RNSW can call a truce and start co-operating with each other)

Happy punting folks!

One of the best days on the racing calender in my humble. terrific group racing in NSW and Vic. The last time that happens each Spring.

A mix of some very tricky races and some with only a handful of chances. Great summary above Macca.

The Gilgai is my perfect sort of race in terms of assessing and doing form (how i do it anyway). A group race with set weights and penalties where you can line up form and trust the ratings.

Have not done my Sydney form as of yet but happy to make Sunline my best (Flemington Race 6 no 7), particularly with Home of the Brave out which i rated as a good outside chance.

On weights and ratings and with luck largely not a factor up the straight think Sunline (rated 115) will roll Santa Anna Lane (rated 118), who is a star. But Sunline gets 2kg weight pull. And the way i do my form 1kg is worth 2 ratings points which which gets her to 119 in the ratings. As a guide I make 1 rating point 1 length. So with no other factors Sunline by a length.

But added to that Sunline is brilliant at 1200, is rock hard fit, loves the good and Flemington (2 from 2 up the straight) whereas Santa Anna Lane is only fair first up and in the good. I also suspect this is Sunline's GF whereas Santa Anna Lane is looking for Everest riches and will improve on whatever it does.

I'd have Sunline at even money so 2.60 is terrific value.

I probably will have a little saver on Bella Martin for the place as i think it will run well and in a smallish field with not too many chances represents a pretty go price at around $5 the place.

Edited October 4, 2019 by binman

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

1 hour ago, binman said:

One of the best days on the racing calender in my humble. terrific group racing in NSW and Vic. The last time that happens each Spring.

A mix of some very tricky races and some with only a handful of chances. Great summary above Macca.

The Gilgai is my perfect sort of race in terms of assessing and doing form (how i do it anyway). A group race with set weights and penalties where you can line up form and trust the ratings.

Have not done my Sydney form as of yet but happy to make Sunline my best (Flemington Race 6 no 7), particularly with Home of the Brave out which i rated as a good outside chance.

On weights and ratings and with luck largely not a factor up the straight think Sunline (rated 115) will roll Santa Anna Lane (rated 118), who is a star. But Sunline gets 2kg weight pull. And the way i do my form 1kg is worth 2 ratings points which which gets her to 119 in the ratings. As a guide I make 1 rating point 1 length. So with no other factors Sunline by a length.

But added to that Sunline is brilliant at 1200, is rock hard fit, loves the good and Flemington (2 from 2 up the straight) whereas Santa Anna Lane is only fair first up and in the good. I also suspect this is Sunline's GF whereas Santa Anna Lane is looking for Everest riches and will improve on whatever it does.

I'd have Sunline at even money so 2.60 is terrific value.

I probably will have a little saver on Bella Martin for the place as i think it will run well and in a smallish field with not too many chances represents a pretty go price at around $5 the place.

Nice summary there Bin. Its a pity Sunline has retired though........was my favourite too...

 

[Macca 17,013]

5 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Nice summary there Bin. Its a pity Sunline has retired though........was my favourite too...

'Sunlight' might end up having the same sort of glittering career as Sunline but it's a lot harder for sprinter types.  She might step it up to 1400m as she gets older and there's a stack of Group races at that distance.

It looks a match-race tomorrow with Santa Ana Lane but Sunlight will have the superior fitness and the weight advantage.  At the weights it's hard to see anything else getting close.  I like BM's choice.

Both of them are running in The Everest in 2 weeks time so the Gilgai is an ideal tune-up.

[binman 43,140]

1 hour ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Nice summary there Bin. Its a pity Sunline has retired though........was my favourite too...

 

Would you belive auto correct????

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

37 minutes ago, binman said:

Would you belive auto correct????

hahahaha.......So is that your pick Bin? Sunlight?

Edited October 4, 2019 by Wadda We Sing

[binman 43,140]

13 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

hahahaha.......So is that your pick Bin? Sunlight?

Yep

[Macca 17,013]

13 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

hahahaha.......So is that your pick Bin? Sunlight?

The 5 picks has a nice look about it Wadda.  2 genuine Group 1 horses as winners with some value added place bests. 

All researched well by the looks of it too

Should add up to a tidy dividend once you've done your usual collating ?

Oh,  and our thread is up to 150 pages.  Bradman-esque type numbers!

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

On 10/3/2019 at 8:53 PM, Wadda We Sing said:

Best Bets:

Saturday Flemington Race 2 No.1  Debt Agent (Plc) $2.35

Saturday Flemington Race 3 No 1. Sebrakate (Plc) $3.20

Saturday Randwick Race 5 No 1 Osborne Bulls (W) $3.00

Saturday Flemington Race 9 No 6. Excused (Plc) $3.40

Saturday Flemington Race 6 No 7 Sunline (W) $2.20

Step right up folks 167/1 approx for the pick 5 if you feel lucky punks! Some excellent picks from the team again this week.

 

 

Good luck to Gorgoroth for his debut and welcome to the team.

 

 

 

Edited October 4, 2019 by Wadda We Sing

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

12 hours ago, Macca said:

The 5 picks has a nice look about it Wadda.  2 genuine Group 1 horses as winners with some value added place bests. 

All researched well by the looks of it too

Should add up to a tidy dividend once you've done your usual collating ?

Oh,  and our thread is up to 150 pages.  Bradman-esque type numbers!

Pretty good going for a few mad punters...well done team....bring on 200!

Edited October 5, 2019 by Wadda We Sing

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Our first 3 picks looking like the battle of Long Tan atm..........anyone getting anything?

I had Haut Brion Her and also got the tri.....but not much apart from that.

#3rd leg in the Quad ....need helpppp!

Ossie pulled up lame, hope hes ok. 426

[Macca 17,013]

3 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Our first 3 picks looking like the battle of Long Tan atm..........anyone getting anything?

I had Haut Brion Her and also got the tri.....but not much apart from that.

#3rd leg in the Quad ....need helpppp!

Ossie pulled up lame, hope hes ok. 426

I got an ok running double at Doomben and had a small wager on Taraayef which got up.

Got a few other bets going but mainly exactas and a few win bets Wadda. 

Will probably break even on the day unless I get lucky.   And breaking even often feels like a win!

[Macca 17,013]

1st & 2nd all class.  Sunlight is a champ and the other champ in Santa Ana Lane will be better for the run.

Going to be one hell of an Everest.  Need a non-bog track though.  Maybe they could transfer the race to Flemington!  Good weather here.

 

[Macca 17,013]

And Bossy gets Kolding over the line in the Epsom in a classic finish ... got Brutal up in the Doncaster in the Autumn so he's done the double now. 

Brutal won again today so that horse is flying.  Golden Eagle next along with Kolding?  $7.5Million up for grabs in the race.  The Golden Eagle could be anything first time up with Arcadia Queen and maybe Mystic Journey real chances as starters.

But I'm not sure Glen will be making his way back to Singapore in a hurry.  He is back amongst it and riding really well.

[Macca 17,013]

Kings Will Dream wins the Turnbull in a remarkable comback ... the horse was pulled up in last year's Cox Plate and there were grave fears that the horse would even survive.

And now it comes out and wins the a Group 1 over the classic 2000m.  Amazing.  Has to be a real chance for the Cox Plate now.  Mystic Journey couldn't find a run and Mr Quickie didn't come on till late either.

Hartnell game again and gets up for 3rd (again) The old war horse just won't quit.  Finche (2nd) looks a real cups horse. 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Waller won every Group One today. Mind you he has many horses in each race, but still.

[Gorgoroth 12,972]

I’m having a mare. Four  fourths at the min, third with Hartnel, also had it and finchie in a trifecta.

no winners yet. 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

11 minutes ago, Gorgoroth said:

I’m having a mare. Four  fourths at the min, third with Hartnel, also had it and finchie in a trifecta.

no winners yet. 

Yep, hard day it seems. Well done on Hartnell.

[Gorgoroth 12,972]

Moonlight maid $51... bugger.

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

49 minutes ago, Gorgoroth said:

I’m having a mare. Four  fourths at the min, third with Hartnel, also had it and finchie in a trifecta.

no winners yet. 

Same here Gorg no winners, a few seconds on some each-way bets and that’s about it. Next week fellas.

[Gorgoroth 12,972]

20 minutes ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Same here Gorg no winners, a few seconds on some each-way bets and that’s about it. Next week fellas.

Good thing is I’m still about $50 up from last week. 

[Macca 17,013]

I ended up a little way in front with a couple of late collects ... Kolding to win & Surprise Baby with Dealmaker in a double

Could have been a bumper day if what I coupled up with Sunlight had have saluted.  The crew went 1 from 5 today which surprised me. 

But I got a bonus double earlier in the day when the race caller on the radio called 'Profit' as running 2nd or 3rd.  Ya gotta love a bonus win.  I only realised I'd won when I checked my balance an hour later!

The punt taketh away and the punt giveth.

Edited October 5, 2019 by Macca

[Macca 17,013]

The Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe is on tomorrow night at midnight and Enable is going for it's 3rd win on the trot (which would be a record)

I'm hoping it does win but at $1.80 it's a bit short.  However,  'Sottsass' represents good value at $8.50 and is a good each-way chance. 

It's a 3yo but horses at that age have a great history of winning the race (18 of the last 25 winners)  And Sottsass has been very impressive at it's last 2 starts.  Maybe the quinella?

Interesting that the Arc still went ahead during the 2nd World War (apart from 1939 & 1940)

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Surprise Baby was bought for 5K as an unraced 3yo. Its now the 2nd Melbourne Cup Fav at 13/1

Now theres a story....

Edited October 6, 2019 by Wadda We Sing

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

17 hours ago, Macca said:

The Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe is on tomorrow night at midnight and Enable is going for it's 3rd win on the trot (which would be a record)

I'm hoping it does win but at $1.80 it's a bit short.  However,  'Sottsass' represents good value at $8.50 and is a good each-way chance. 

It's a 3yo but horses at that age have a great history of winning the race (18 of the last 25 winners)  And Sottsass has been very impressive at it's last 2 starts.  Maybe the quinella?

Interesting that the Arc still went ahead during the 2nd World War (apart from 1939 & 1940)

Thats pretty interesting indeed.

[Macca 17,013]

5 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Thats pretty interesting indeed.

5 other Group 1 races to support the Arc at Longchamp tonight Wadda.  As a follower of European racing most of the horses involved are now quite familiar.  Apart from the 2 x 2yo Group 1's. 

For those interested go to www.racingpost.com for a comprehensive form analysis and guide. 

Enable will stamp herself as one of the very very best if she can win a 3rd Arc.  The fact that it's never been done before says a lot.  But as previously stated,  I give 'Softsass' a real chance.

The race is on at midnight tonight. 

As for our best bets,  Osborne Bulls pulled up lame and my default move is to go back to the class.  As it was,  I should have picked Sunlight (BM's pick) or Surprise Baby.  But you live and learn.

As for Surprise Baby,  we've now got a local horse and an adopted local (Steel Prince) to cheer on in the great race.  Surprise Baby is a real show too.  Won very well yesterday and came home in 00:35.16 for the last 600m.  That is good going in a 2520m race.