A Day at the Races

[Macca 16,972]

Benbatl ran just 0.46 seconds outside the 2000m track record at Caulfield yesterday carrying 59kgs at WFA level.  Winx at her best should win the Cox Plate but she's got some real competition. 

And 'Blair House' only got beaten by Benbatl by a nose yesterday so it has real claims as well.   Humidor which lost out to Winx by only half a length in last year's Cox Plate was 2.5 lengths behind Benbatl & Blair House yesterday.  It is going to be one hell of a race. 

As for the Caulfield Cup & Melbourne Cup and even the Moonee Valley Cup,  Geelong Cup & the Hotham Hcp your guess is as good as mine.  There are a few locals with real claims but the overseas contingent are sure to feature including 'Yucatan' from yesterday which was very impressive. 

[Macca 16,972]

Australian Group & Listed Races

Best Bet Strike Rate

36: 13 - 5 - 7

And @Biffen's Sydney Qauddie fell 1 leg short first time up. 

Anyway,  here's some replays from yesterday ... I've broken them up into 2 posts for loading purposes. 

 

 

 

 

[Macca 16,972]

Here are the other 3 replays from yesterday including one from Newmarket (UK) raced last night ... the winner of the Dewhurst Stakes (Too Darn Hot) is set for a Guineas & Derby career over there.  Definitely one to watch.

 

 

 

 

[Macca 16,972]

Australian Group & Listed Races

Best Bet Strike Rate

40: 13 - 5 - 7

[binman 43,024]

5 hours ago, Macca said:

Australian Group & Listed Races

Best Bet Strike Rate

40: 13 - 5 - 7

That was a god win by Too Dam hot. Looked gone.

[binman 43,024]

5 hours ago, Macca said:

Australian Group & Listed Races

Best Bet Strike Rate

40: 13 - 5 - 7

A quick summary of my Saturday:

Punters lament:

Why did i not stick with my thought tat the European horses are just way better over 1600 and above. So annoyed to not have backed Bentbatl and Yucatan. Marked them both and hesitated because both were first up in oz. Exactly the same mistake i made with Jungle Cat (though it was over 1400). They are just better. Benbatle is rated 119. Trust the rating. Sheesh.

Why o why did i not stick with Hayes for two year olds?

Punters celebration

Sunlight was brilliant. Redzel did exactly what i thought it would do, very similar to Sunlight actually. Had enough winners to make a good profit.

Comment

Smart Melody may not be a 1600 horse but Thrillster deciding to get into a speed battle killed both horses chances. Stupid.

Caulfield played the best it has in years. Cudos to the team there. 

Autumn Sun is the real deal. What a win. Wow. Surely will run in the 3019 COx P;lae if injury free. if so may wel come gainst Wink. Wow. 

 

 

[Macca 16,972]

19 hours ago, binman said:

That was a god win by Too Dam hot. Looked gone.

Yep ... I made mention of Too Darn Hot as it has gained a lot of attention over in the UK.  Trained by John Gosden and ridden by Frankie Dettori it is destined for big things.  Dettori especially was mighty impressed with the way it won that UK 2yo classic (Dewhurst Stakes)

And the way things are going with the overseas representation,  we may even see the horse here as a lightweight 3yo chance in the Caulfield Cup or Cox Plate.  Long range call of course but it does look like a real standout BM.  The trainer mentioned that 2400m might be the horses limit but the mile or the mile and a quarter was it's ideal distance. 

I reckon the Cox Plate (post Winx) will almost certainly become an international affair much like the Caulfield & Melbourne Cup's are fast becoming.  Money talks.  And if the mooted move to relocate the Championships at Randwick to late November does eventuate,  the $4Million Queen Elizabeth Stakes becomes the 5th huge attraction in the Spring.  NSW want a piece of the action as witnessed with success of the Everest.

And with the Internationals the punters need to trust the Globally recognised ratings and if those horses have performed well at Group level,  that needs to be taken into account as well. 

I got 2 decent collects on Saturday by simply recognising overseas form & the ratings of those overseas horses.  Just missed on the Yucatan race by not including 'A Prince of Arron' in the exotics.  Kicking myself on that one ?

Edited October 15, 2018 by Macca

[Macca 16,972]

Not a bad days racing tomorrow at Caulfield ... more so the last 4 races which are the quaddie legs.  Race 5 (The $350k Blue Sapphire Stakes) has only attracted a small field of 6 runners but with this rain about,  'Written By' may not have it all his way. 

Full Race Card - Caulfield

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

I see Lloyd has taken Yukatan out of the Caulfield Cup. It was $4.50 favourite. He said its not ready to back up and might run it in the Cox Plate on the way to the Melbourne Cup. Lloyd is only ever interested in Melbourne Cups and has done this sort of thing before with his Caulfield Cup nominations.

Youngstar 5/1 is now lightweight favourite with Kings will Dream 5.50 and Ace High third in line at 11/1. I will be taking that quinella Youngstar and Ace High. I do like Youngstar in that race now. Im already on Ace at 21 so can flutter a bit.

Edited October 16, 2018 by Wadda We Sing

[Macca 16,972]

2 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

I see Lloyd has taken Yukatan out of the Caulfield Cup. It was $4.50 favourite. He said its not ready to back up and might run it in the Cox Plate on the way to the Melbourne Cup. Lloyd is only ever interested in Melbourne Cups and has done this sort of thing before with his Caulfield Cup nominations.

Youngstar 5/1 is now lightweight favourite with Kings will Dream 5.50 and Ace High third in line at 11/1. I will be taking that quinella Youngstar and Ace High. I do like Youngstar in that race now. Im already on Ace at 21 so can flutter a bit.

Definitely like your three Wadda & 'The Cliffsofmoher' ran an eye-catching 4th in the Caulfield Stakes ... there are any number of other horses that I could include in a box5 trifecta.  Maybe a 3-5-7 multiple trifecta and that way I can include a couple more.

Also,  it's always worth throwing in a $20 First4 with the huge pools involved.  Even a small percentage can deliver a more than handy collect. 

I haven't got a standout winner for the Caulfield Cup (who has?) but if I had to pick one it would be Youngstar.  Ran really well to run 2nd in the Turnbull especially the last 800m (44.30) and boxed on well when Winx went past it.  Group 1 form can't be denied and it's only carrying 51.5kgs.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

7 minutes ago, Macca said:

Definitely like your three Wadda & 'The Cliffsofmoher' ran an eye-catching 4th in the Caulfield Stakes ... there are any number of other horses that I could include in a box5 trifecta.  Maybe a 3-5-7 multiple trifecta and that way I can include a couple more.

Also,  it's always worth throwing in a $20 First4 with the huge pools involved.  Even a small percentage can deliver a more than handy collect. 

I haven't got a standout winner for the Caulfield Cup (who has?) but if I had to pick one it would be Youngstar.  Ran really well to run 2nd in the Turnbull especially the last 800m (44.30) and boxed on well when Winx went past it.  Group 1 form can't be denied and it's only carrying 51.5kgs.

Well thats eggzactly what im thinking and judging by the odds so does a lot of others. We know the lightweights can win the cups now after the last few years. Ace will still be up there and the 3.60 plc bet could be one for the MB thread.

I always put on a trifecta for the Cups for the same reason...pools. All the mystery bets and mug punters throwing their money at it. Some times i like to put quite a few for 1st with the beaten favourite for 2nd. Pays off some years.

[Macca 16,972]

All the focus goes to Caulfield,  Moonee Valley & Flemington for the next month and rightly so ... the racing is first rate with no fewer than 35 Group level races over 6 meetings.  The best of the best,  the creme de la creme!

I've noticed that a few of the imported horses have been talked up this week with regards to the Caulfield Cup (namely The Cliffsofmoher and to a lesser extent Red Verdon & Best Solution) ... however,  trying to evaluate the 2 Japanese runners is very tricky - the biggest issue being that they run on ultra-fast firm tracks in Japan so how does one read that form?

Anyway,  it's a very competitive field and if you can land the Trifecta or F4 you will have done very well.  The exacta might be an option as the dividends are sure to be decent for all the exotics.

Race Card - Caulfield (all races)

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

10 hours ago, Macca said:

All the focus goes to Caulfield,  Moonee Valley & Flemington for the next month and rightly so ... the racing is first rate with no fewer than 35 Group level races over 6 meetings.  The best of the best,  the creme de la creme!

I've noticed that a few of the imported horses have been talked up this week with regards to the Caulfield Cup (namely The Cliffsofmoher and to a lesser extent Red Verdon & Best Solution) ... however,  trying to evaluate the 2 Japanese runners is very tricky - the biggest issue being that they run on ultra-fast firm tracks in Japan so how does one read that form?

Anyway,  it's a very competitive field and if you can land the Trifecta or F4 you will have done very well.  The exacta might be an option as the dividends are sure to be decent for all the exotics.

Race Card - Caulfield (all races)

It’s on now Macca. I’m liking the The Cliffsofmoher at the moment and if the folks aren’t satisfied with the Caulfield Cup race meet there’s always Cranbourne on the Sunday where El Magnificence will make his return (most likely).? We should know in an hour or two.

Edited October 17, 2018 by Dee Zephyr

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

20 hours ago, Macca said:

All the focus goes to Caulfield,  Moonee Valley & Flemington for the next month and rightly so ... the racing is first rate with no fewer than 35 Group level races over 6 meetings.  The best of the best,  the creme de la creme!

I've noticed that a few of the imported horses have been talked up this week with regards to the Caulfield Cup (namely The Cliffsofmoher and to a lesser extent Red Verdon & Best Solution) ... however,  trying to evaluate the 2 Japanese runners is very tricky - the biggest issue being that they run on ultra-fast firm tracks in Japan so how does one read that form?

Anyway,  it's a very competitive field and if you can land the Trifecta or F4 you will have done very well.  The exacta might be an option as the dividends are sure to be decent for all the exotics.

Race Card - Caulfield (all races)

Ok Macca, so now judging by the trainers names, the 2 Jap imports would be 3 Chestnut Coat and 15 Sole Impact, (relation to Deep Impact). I guess you have to respect the Japanese form, although theyve both only won 4 races in their careers, for whatever thats worth. Sole Impact has drawn the carpark. I dont think its Pop Rock and Delta Blues running here, but finishing in the top 10 will not surprise. Will be a top race.

Ill be sticking with 6. Ace High, 2.The Cliffsofmoher, 18. Youngstar and 14. Kings will Dream (last 2 with no weight will be flying).

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Best Bet:

Getting in early this week, as im on the road again soon. Copenhagen will have to wait another day for the Cartwheels.

Its a tricky card at Caulfield and finding standout winners will be hard. So im going to go one from a few weeks ago which was beaten. Following on and hoping to outsmart our beaten favourites that win next start pattern.....

Caulfield Race 6 No 1 Thinking Big $3.90

Its overs for this horse. The Weir runner 3. Extra Brut is the obvious danger. 4.3.1.0 /....Last 3 wins on the trot and going an extra 200m this start, isnt looking like a problem. (maybe a little flutter on that quinella here, might not go astray).

[Macca 16,972]

5 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Ok Macca, so now judging by the trainers names, the 2 Jap imports would be 3 Chestnut Coat and 15 Sole Impact, (relation to Deep Impact). I guess you have to respect the Japanese form, although theyve both only won 4 races in their careers, for whatever thats worth. Sole Impact has drawn the carpark. I dont think its Pop Rock and Delta Blues running here, but finishing in the top 10 will not surprise. Will be a top race.

Ill be sticking with 6. Ace High, 2.The Cliffsofmoher, 18. Youngstar and 14. Kings will Dream (last 2 with no weight will be flying).

I've got the same 4 as you on top Wadda ... usually I'll go with 3 or 5 but the winner should come from those 4.  But you never know. 

As for the imported horses,  it is more a process of elimination but I'll probably include a total of 3 from 7 or 8 overall choices - I'm obviously going 'wide' with the exotics.  Red Verdon seems to be well supported.  Maybe 'Duretto' from the inside gate?  The others have similar form but they've all mostly drawn quite wide barriers.  

Interesting that our 4 choices have all drawn decent gates ... it will be interesting to see the thoughts of DZ,  BM,  Biff,  Clinto & DJ.  It's such a great race steeped in history.  It's now an international race of course so the eyes of the racing world are now looking.  And that's not such a bad thing.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

6 minutes ago, Macca said:

I've got the same 4 as you on top Wadda ... usually I'll go with 3 or 5 but the winner should come from those 4.  But you never know. 

As for the imported horses,  it is more a process of elimination but I'll probably include a total of 3 from 7 or 8 overall choices - I'm obviously going 'wide' with the exotics.  Red Verdon seems to be well supported.  Maybe 'Duretto' from the inside gate?  The others have similar form but they've all mostly drawn quite wide barriers.  

Interesting that our 4 choices have all drawn decent gates ... it will be interesting to see the thoughts of DZ,  BM,  Biff,  Clinto & DJ.  It's such a great race steeped in history.  It's now an international race of course so the eyes of the racing world are now looking.  And that's not such a bad thing.

Yes indeed, great to get everyones thoughts.

....of the rest Macca, i like 1. Best Solution (godolphin) is a top horse and 16/1 is a huge price. 19. Patrick Erin with zero weight won Grp 1 The Metropolitan last start. Thats ok form for a 51/1 shot.

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

G’day fellas, I think we are in for a cracking Caulfield Cup. 

I have The Cliffsofmoher on top. Terrific run in the Caulfield Stakes. Was last at the 400 and it really was an eye-catcher. I’m interested where Bowman will settle the horse during the run. Luck will play a major part. From barrier 3 it would be risky to settle in the rear end of the field like the horse did last week and hope to go around the majority of a big field or hope for miracle runs on the inside. I can see Hugh settling in the front half. Another slight concern is the 7 day backup.

Best Solution, Ace High, Ventura Storm, Kings Will Dream and Youngstar round out my top 6 at the moment. Looking to box the 6 in a tri and first 4. 

The Japanese horses have experience with racing in big fields but I’m happy to pass on them at this stage. 

Runners of interest:

Sound Check-  Ran a 2nd within 0.3 of a length of Best Solution in its last start and has 7 wins to date.

Duretto- Well, we all know about hoodoos and unwanted records. The last time a horse saluted in a Caulfield Cup from the one barrier was in 1941. Definitely worth something small each way and is a 6 time winner.

Red Verdon- I like anything Ed Dunlop. Red Cadeaux became a favourite amongst Aussies. The key with this horse is Zac Purton, big time jockey.

Will finalise my selections by tomorrow night, by the above I’m boxing the field. 

Edited October 18, 2018 by Dee Zephyr

[Macca 16,972]

Gator's first 4 in each race are under the banner of 'Best Bets' which can be seen here on Racing.com  Available online on Wednesday's for the Saturday metropolitan meeting's in Melbourne. 

James Jordan's Morphettville first 4 tips are usually available around 10am on a Saturday on the same Racing.com website. 

[Macca 16,972]

Best Bet

Caulfield  Race 7  No.7  Best of Days  $3.50

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

Best Bet

Morphetville Race 6 No1. Gytrash $2.70 Win

Ran second by 0.2 of a length to Written By last start. 

For those interested El Magnificence (10) Race 6 will go around at Cranbourne on Sunday. From the 4 barrier they will look to box seat behind the pace and strike in the straight. 

Good luck all.

[ProperDee 1,698]

Homesman is the one for me.  Should jump to the front on a leaders track and a big weight drop makes it a very good chance.

[binman 43,024]

My best is Roosevelt at Randwick. Race 6 no 7.

With the cliffs of moher in the cup. Tricky day. The rain muddled me up a bit as i was selecting for a leaders track with firm going but the rain has taken the edge off and all horse should get their chance. Like Extra Brut but feel it is a touch short. 

[ProperDee 1,698]

Keep selecting those leaders at Caulfield binman

The winner of the first led and should have been run down but kept them all at bay down the straight. 

[Macca 16,972]

Best Bets

Caulfield  Race 7  No.7  Best of Days  $3.50  Win

Morphetville Race 6  No.1 Gytrash  $2.70  Win

Caulfield Race 6  No.1 Thinking Big  $3.90  Win

Randwick Race 6  No.7 Roosevelt  $2.40  Win

 

Combined odds 88-1

Good luck to all!

Edited October 20, 2018 by Macca