I would have thought that of all the supporter bases in world sport, ours would be a little more circumspect after all that we've seen.

In this millennium on only two occasions (07 & 08) has a team won a flag without playing finals in the preceding two years, and we're not even a finals team yet.

I'd love nothing more than to wipe egg off my face after this post being brought up in a couple of years time, I just think some of the optimism on here has turned to hubris pretty quickly and undeservedly. I'm not arguing that the future isn't bright - I'm really excited - just that those who think we'll challenge for a flag in the next 2/3 years are treading a very fine line between optimistic and deluded.

Edited April 1, 20169 yr by Members' Wing

9 minutes ago, Members' Wing said:

I would have thought that of all the supporter bases in world sport, ours would be a little more circumspect after all that we've seen.

In this millennium on only two occasions (07 & 08) has a team won a flag without playing finals in the preceding two years, and we're not even a finals team yet.

I'd love nothing more than to wipe egg off my face after this post being brought up in a couple of years time, I just think some of the optimism on here has turned to hubris pretty quickly and undeservedly. I'm not arguing that the future isn't bright - I'm really excited - just that those who think we'll challenge for a flag in the next 2/3 years are treading a very fine line between optimistic and deluded.

I think there is a big difference between challenging for a flag and in contention. I think we may well be in contention in 3 years, but whether or not we actually do challenge for one is a whole other story. 

Is the argument challenging for a flag or in contention? The way I see it if you finish top 4, your'e increasing your chances of being in contention (for a flag) and you'd be in a good spot to challenge for the flag. And 2-3 yrs for mine (like Chris) is entirely possible and realistic.

 

20 minutes ago, Members' Wing said:

I would have thought that of all the supporter bases in world sport, ours would be a little more circumspect after all that we've seen.

I don't follow a football team to be circumspect. I'm all in. We're on a premiership journey and the journey started about 30 months ago. The more casual observer is starting to note progress. With every week, more and more will start to realize - Hogan plus Gawn plus Viney plus Brayshaw plus Oliver plus McDonald plus Salem is the nucleus of something very special. Vince and Jones have the respect of the entire competition. Watts is now getting the headlines. Petracca will emerge soon and then the hype around our young group will build further. I've decided to shy away from second guessing this group. I believe in them and as a consequence my expectations are high. And if nothing else, it beats the hell out of living in fear each week, wondering when the next upper cut is coming our way.

11 minutes ago, H_T said:

Is the argument challenging for a flag or in contention? The way I see it if you finish top 4, your'e increasing your chances of being in contention (for a flag) and you'd be in a good spot to challenge for the flag. And 2-3 yrs for mine (like Chris) is entirely possible and realistic.

 

Fair point, I was more talking about playing in Prelims as my definition of challenging for a flag. I don't think we'll make a prelim this year, 2017 or 2018. 2019 to me is more realistic.

Edited April 1, 20169 yr by Members' Wing

22 minutes ago, Members' Wing said:

I would have thought that of all the supporter bases in world sport, ours would be a little more circumspect after all that we've seen.

In this millennium on only two occasions (07 & 08) has a team won a flag without playing finals in the preceding two years, and we're not even a finals team yet.

I'd love nothing more than to wipe egg off my face after this post being brought up in a couple of years time, I just think some of the optimism on here has turned to hubris pretty quickly and undeservedly. I'm not arguing that the future isn't bright - I'm really excited - just that those who think we'll challenge for a flag in the next 2/3 years are treading a very fine line between optimistic and deluded.

I think you're spot on, id be happy to make finals next year let alone win a final... dont think once we finaly play in a final after all this time winning one will just happen. With all the improvement the dogs showed they couldn't neither can richmond. Finals will no doubt come for us in the next 2/3 years (well it f***ing better or i might just give up on this club) but really contending is still quite a ways away.

Here's how it works -

A good AFL player goes on to play for several years, even a decade, and accumulates 100+ games.

A cr4p player players for maybe 3 or 4 years, gets to 50 games if they are lucky, then gets delisted.

 

So, saying 'premiership teams have more players with more games experience' is basically saying 'premiership teams have more good players'.

 

The other side of it, it takes time to build a really good best 22 or the necessary depth beyond that. Even three good players a year coming in would take most of a decade.

Part of why the likes of Crawford, Harvey, Pavlich, Enright, or Goodes are so important - their longevity gives the club more time to accumulate quality players.

Imagine the quality of lists if every player stayed fresh and fit until they were 35, instead of the more typical 30.

Get in that icebath, Mr Brayshaw!

5 minutes ago, Goodvibes said:

I don't follow a football team to be circumspect. I'm all in. We're on a premiership journey and the journey started about 30 months ago. The more casual observer is starting to note progress. With every week, more and more will start to realize - Hogan plus Gawn plus Viney plus Brayshaw plus Oliver plus McDonald plus Salem is the nucleus of something very special. Vince and Jones have the respect of the entire competition. Watts is now getting the headlines. Petracca will emerge soon and then the hype around our young group will build further. I've decided to shy away from second guessing this group. I believe in them and as a consequence my expectations are high. And if nothing else, it beats the hell out of living in fear each week, wondering when the next upper cut is coming our way.

You've summed up my feelings perfectly.

the group know it's happening and rather than waiting for it, they're beginning to take it themselves. I hope they are rewarded for this ambition. It certainly is a good time to be a demons supporter. 

1 minute ago, Goodvibes said:

I don't follow a football team to be circumspect. I'm all in. We're on a premiership journey and the journey started about 30 months ago. The more casual observer is starting to note progress. With every week, more and more will start to realize - Hogan plus Gawn plus Viney plus Brayshaw plus Oliver plus McDonald plus Salem is the nucleus of something very special. Vince and Jones have the respect of the entire competition. Watts is now getting the headlines. Petracca will emerge soon and then the hype around our young group will build further. I've decided to shy away from second guessing this group. I believe in them and as a consequence my expectations are high. And if nothing else, it beats the hell out of living in fear each week, wondering when the next upper cut is coming our way.

And that's your prerogative mate. I'd just prefer to be a bit more realistic rather than wildly and blindly optimistic.

So much can change. Remember how excited everyone was about the list we were building in 2010-11? There's threads that people here dig up from those days predicting our 2013 and 2014 premiership teams, where it eventually transpired that we won six games over the entirety of those two seasons.

If Hogan leaves or Petracca does his knee again we're in a vastly superior position to cope now than we'd have been 5 years ago, no question about that. But it'd still set us back. And it's such an even comp these days that you need so many things to serendipitously fall into place, you need good management but you also need luck - especially as a so-called smaller club - or else you become a nearly team like Richmond or North and end up with nothing.

3 minutes ago, Members' Wing said:

And that's your prerogative mate. I'd just prefer to be a bit more realistic rather than wildly and blindly optimistic.

Where's that Big Lebowsi GIF when you need one. I guess I don't see it as being blindly optimistic to think we can comfortably beat Essendon and compete for a flag in a few years. We've been in the absolute wilderness for 8 years, I think we're allowed to dream a little, particularly when that dream is based on the young talent that we now have at the club. But you're certainly entitled to your opinion. I just don't share it.

9 minutes ago, Goodvibes said:

Where's that Big Lebowsi GIF when you need one. I guess I don't see it as being blindly optimistic to think we can comfortably beat Essendon and compete for a flag in a few years. We've been in the absolute wilderness for 8 years, I think we're allowed to dream a little, particularly when that dream is based on the young talent that we now have at the club. But you're certainly entitled to your opinion. I just don't share it.

Of course we can all dream, I do too. We've all suffered an almost unbelievable amount the past decade or so, with both on and off-field tragedies.

And I would absolutely love to be proved wrong, but I'm just playing the odds.

3 minutes ago, Members' Wing said:

And I would absolutely love to be proved wrong, but I'm just playing the odds.

But where's the fun in that?

1 minute ago, Goodvibes said:

But where's the fun in that?

I'm usually a punter too!

Just now, Goodvibes said:

But where's the fun in that?

Come on, it's fun always being right. 

The glass ain't half full and it's not half empty. It's simply halfway. 

1 hour ago, Goodvibes said:

Where's that Big Lebowsi GIF when you need one. I guess I don't see it as being blindly optimistic to think we can comfortably beat Essendon and compete for a flag in a few years. We've been in the absolute wilderness for 8 years, I think we're allowed to dream a little, particularly when that dream is based on the young talent that we now have at the club. But you're certainly entitled to your opinion. I just don't share it.

The Dude Abides...

13 hours ago, iv'a worn smith said:

I'm trying to find the bio stats for the 2008 Hawthorn premiership team.  Could be an interesting comparison to us now.  Remember, Hawthorn were not expected to win that one and most of the experts believed at the time, they were still at least a couple of years away.  BELIEF is the key

Not too sure if there has already been a reply...

107 games 

15 players over 150.

statistically they were primed. 

12 hours ago, Chris said:

No team has an average of 120 games for the playing group or 2/3 of the list at 100 games or more. Hawthorn, Freo, Swans, and WC all average between 68 and 86 games for their lists and have no where 2/3 of there players with over 100 games. Hawthorn has 16 players over 100 on their primary list, Freo 14, Swans 11, and WC 17. By contrast our average games is 56 with 8 players over 100 games. We are probably no more than 3 years from having the same sort of numbers the four clubs I listed do. 

The stat isn't for the whole playing group. It's for the 22 that run on the field.