I want to be on record that Melbourne will make the 8 next year.

I also want allies who agree with me and put their pride on the line.

MFC will be in the 8 in 2013.

Noooope. But love the enthusiasm.

Ahhh I wish I could share your optimism but I dont think we will be in the 8, Im happy to go with top 12 because I like what Neeld is doing.

Contrary to the brilliant Chris Scott year two years ago, and Sanderson this year, it is completely normal for a team to fall in the first year under a new head coach. I'm certainly disappointed in how much we fell but of all the teams in the bottom 10, we have the best draft this year and I'd argue potentially one of the more up and coming lists second only to Richmond.

Ditch our worst 5 and replace them with 1 FA, 3 new draft picks and one player who comes on in the pre-season and we're a completely different proposition.

Contrary to the brilliant Chris Scott year two years ago, and Sanderson this year, it is completely normal for a team to fall in the first year under a new head coach. I'm certainly disappointed in how much we fell but of all the teams in the bottom 10, we have the best draft this year and I'd argue potentially one of the more up and coming lists second only to Richmond.

Ditch our worst 5 and replace them with 1 FA, 3 new draft picks and one player who comes on in the pre-season and we're a completely different proposition.

The problem is that we have so many players that could fall into that 'worst 5'. We're not going to be able to get rid of all our passengers in one go.

Who do you think will drop out of the 8? Im not convinced on Adelaide, especially if Tippett goes.

Maybe Geelong to drop out as well?

The Tigers to go in and maybe Brisbane?

The top 8 is a big ask. But we'll probably be in the second 8.

Lets say as a given ( fsoa ) that we do improve one hell of a lot in 2013. Its the 'whom do you displace" thats the catch

Im not sure which of the current would fall away sufficiently for us to move up that much.

2014 with legs and momentum could well be a whole different thing

I'm not fussed about who goes out I'm just worried about us winning

12 games.

If I'd told you Carlton would come 10th and in Round 9 Essendon wouldn't make the 8 you'd call me crazy.

Adelaide had a [censored] draw- 6 automatic wins this year, I don't buy them nor North, nor Geelong next year.

Furthermore I think Sydney will slide next year, not out of the 8 but you get their game style you beat them.

We're a chance and I'm shouting it from the rooftops

Count me in, I reckon we'll play finals

We won't, because ...

1. Even with an in injection of class into the midfield, it's going to take them 12 - 18 months to gel.

2. We won't be able to kick enough goals with Clark as our sole target and no genuine small forward.

But we can improve and join the pack in the middle.

We need to find another forward target in addition to Clark who can kick 50 goals if we want to make the eight.

Yeah we certainly need a few things to go our way but I don't think it's beyond the realm of possibility. Clark needs one pal, just one. If Jurrah comes back we're set youd get 90 goals between them. Play Jeremy Howe forward no midfield. Sit the ball on the defenders head and he'll get 3 or 4 scoring shots a game. Petterd I'm still holding hope will come on next year, simply 25-30 goals- 1.5 a game and we're seriously a multiple threat team up front. Crumber is an issue but there is talk of Kennedy going 13 in the draft and we do have Jetta or potentially Davey down deep tackling and chasing.

With regards to the gelling I don't agree. A bloke like Dayne Zorko comes in this year after 2 reserves games and sits in Brisbanes midfield averaging 25 and a goal. If the leadership is good in the middle (Jones, Trengove) and I think it is they should pick up quickly.

It's very clear that we need some things to fall our way. We won't go from 16th to 8th changing nothing but we are yet to see true growth from the following: Tapscott, Blease, Strauss, Trengove, Taggert etc these guys will develop over summer and it'll finally take us out of AFL obscurity.

2013 - my target for next year is 9 wins. Another preseason with Misson to improve their endurance, another preseason to improve strength, an injection of midfield talent with Viney and another topline junior, Trengove to get his zip back, Clark to play 20 games, Frawley to get his mojo back, Grimes to build on his injury free year, the leadership group to have a second year to enforce an improving culture and Neeld will have weeded out most of the clutter.

We won 8.5 in 2010 and 8.5 in 2011. We need to better those years with at least 9 wins.

2014 - we should be competing for a spot in the 8.

2015 - we must make the 8.

I'm not fussed about who goes out I'm just worried about us winning

12 games.

If I'd told you Carlton would come 10th and in Round 9 Essendon wouldn't make the 8 you'd call me crazy.

Adelaide had a [censored] draw- 6 automatic wins this year, I don't buy them nor North, nor Geelong next year.

Furthermore I think Sydney will slide next year, not out of the 8 but you get their game style you beat them.

We're a chance and I'm shouting it from the rooftops

12 wins won't get us into the finals next year. With 18 teams, it now takes more than 12 wins to make it into the top 8. This year, Freo and North, currently sitting 7th and 8th, have already won 13, and with a game to go will win 14. (Freo are playing us and North are playing GWS.)

We're not going to win 14 next year, not one year after a season when our only non GWS/GC win was by less than a kick against Essendon.

the AFL is a cut throat league. The top 8 is solid. Richmond, Essendon and Carlton will be drawing blood next year to get into the top 8. None of the top 8 looks like getting any weaker. The Cats have blooded new players who are on the up. Suns and Giants will get better.

We need 1. new young players 2. a better improved game style 3. good run with injuries.

Forget ladder positions. From 21 games to date, we have won 4 (3 agst the new teams), were competitive in another 4 (Saints 1st time, Power, Dogs, Freo) and were frankly out of the game by 3/4 time in another 13 (!!) . That has to change.

12 wins won't get us into the finals next year. With 18 teams, it now takes more than 12 wins to make it into the top 8. This year, Freo and North, currently sitting 7th and 8th, have already won 13, and with a game to go will win 14. (Freo are playing us and North are playing GWS.)

We're not going to win 14 next year, not one year after a season when our only non GWS/GC win was by less than a kick against Essendon.

You are on the money Dee_flower

Making the 8 in 2013 is the stuff of fanasty.

Reality is we will struggle to get 5- 6 geniune wins.

The problem is that we have so many players that could fall into that 'worst 5'. We're not going to be able to get rid of all our passengers in one go.

I tend to disagree with this view that we have so many bad players... I think that with a couple of our underperforming older players gone and replaced with a couple of experienced FAs plus some well used draft picks (actual or as trade bait), we could see some of our currently maligned younger players starting to step up a level. As Monnocular mentioned in another thread, Jones would make a perfect mentor for the likes of Jordie M and I have no doubts could inspire others to lift their game over the pre-season.

I have my doubts we could make top 8, but we could well be knocking at the door. As for Richmond Jonesbag, I think they are destined to remain in limbo as was typified by this year's performance when they all but had a top 8 position tied up and they then dropped their bundle (yet again) to kill their finals hopes.

Some how 4 wins to 13/14 to make the 8 seems a bit much.

But I do love the optimism.

Not even Criswell would predict this.

What odds are you offering DL 7?

Count me in...14 wins is a big jump.

We will need those10-11 new faces on big bodies ready to go

Jurrah and another big forward to help Clark...

I will bet you we don't. But i admire your Spirit.

I just don't think we have the players to get there next year. However depending on how active we are in the FA/Trade period I may change my view. But I think/hope we could be pushing up around 10th if a few things go our way...

Can I stress the only reason teams are making the finals with 14 wins is because GWS and Gold Coast are certain wins. Never in the history of the modern day AFL has 3 teams finished on 4 wins or less, with Port Bulldogs both on 5 and 6 it's no surprise the top teams are so far ahead. Neither GWS or Gold Coast will be a basket case next year nor will we can guarantee 14 will have you about 6th and 5 wins will probably get you the wooden spoon.

How does it matter how many teams ? Still same number of games.12 wins WILL get you in the 8. It will be determined but percentage though as a few more teams may end up crowding the door !

18 team comp means beating every team outside the top 8 getd you 10 wins which should be a given for all finalists...the question therefore is which top 8 teams are we going to beat

Actually ..im wrong. This season as proof of it.

12 wins MAY get you in the 8 but not necessarily !!

I sit corrected