Tim Harrington's cautious approach to the mini-draft

[Dee Fan 3,247]

Imagine if we actually got one of those picks. RobbieF's response is either:

a- we overpaid (after getting O'Meara)

b- we got the dud one (after getting Crouch).

You're stuck in the 70s when we sucked, RF. And you want to be there.

Jeez you got it wrong again bobby.

I would have loved to have picked up either but we didn't; I would have been quite happy with Crouch if we missed out on O'Meara.

That clear enough for you?

Come back to me if you need any clarification sponge bobby.

[warren dean 193]

Weird post. What, in your eyes, would've been a good effort then? The only alternatives I see are paying above what we thought was reasonable, or just not bothering at all - who's to say Adelaide/GC would've put in the offers they did unless there was some pressure coming from us? I'm really battling to see where Harrington and team went wrong here.

1. Harrington was quite open about making a serious play for the mini-draft.

2. In his role he would have known what the main competition - GC and anyone else with a compo pick- would be prepared to offer.

3. He states today we had a bale out position which we were not prepared to go past.

4. Despite what some say on here, I don't believe it was any secret what GC, in particular were prepared to offer. Gunston walked out on Adelaide some time back, meaning that they would also be able to improve their position through that trade.

5. I can only assume that with all this information he genuinely believed that we were never a realistic chance based on what we were prepared to offer and his sole aim was to make the other clubs bid what he felt were overs. (If so - fair enough).

6. My opinion - with Viney already in the bank, why would we not trade away both compo picks and 12 if necessary to pick one of the two players who are universally acknowledged as the being top 3 or 4 in this draft if eligible. Our compo picks are most likely going to be somewhere between 10 and 16 when they eventually fall, depending on when others use theirs. Pick 12 this year is more like an early 20's pick given the concessions already granted to GWS in terms of the 17 year olds they took last year. So, in reality, we would have been sacrificing two mid to late first rounders and an early second rounder in a normal year for pick 1 or 2. That's what I would have done. Might have been wrong, but gee, it would have been exciting. That would have been a good effort.

[beelzebub 23,376]

Weird post. What, in your eyes, would've been a good effort then? The only alternatives I see are paying above what we thought was reasonable, or just not bothering at all - who's to say Adelaide/GC would've put in the offers they did unless there was some pressure coming from us? I'm really battling to see where Harrington and team went wrong here.

They didnt I suspect. That was stage one. I would think that there are possibly three parts to this week. There would be the straight out deals, such as Gunston. Someting for something, but aside from the min-draft. Then theres the deals involving teh mini draft and theyll be done by tomorrow. After this theres the other deals. Some coulndt be assessed until the fallout is known. Anyhows I sense were in there somewhere in stage 3

[Dee Fan 3,247]

1. Harrington was quite open about making a serious play for the mini-draft.

2. In his role he would have known what the main competition - GC and anyone else with a compo pick- would be prepared to offer.

3. He states today we had a bale out position which we were not prepared to go past.

4. Despite what some say on here, I don't believe it was any secret what GC, in particular were prepared to offer. Gunston walked out on Adelaide some time back, meaning that they would also be able to improve their position through that trade.

5. I can only assume that with all this information he genuinely believed that we were never a realistic chance based on what we were prepared to offer and his sole aim was to make the other clubs bid what he felt were overs. (If so - fair enough).

6. My opinion - with Viney already in the bank, why would we not trade away both compo picks and 12 if necessary to pick one of the two players who are universally acknowledged as the being top 3 or 4 in this draft if eligible. Our compo picks are most likely going to be somewhere between 10 and 16 when they eventually fall, depending on when others use theirs. Pick 12 this year is more like an early 20's pick given the concessions already granted to GWS in terms of the 17 year olds they took last year. So, in reality, we would have been sacrificing two mid to late first rounders and an early second rounder in a normal year for pick 1 or 2. That's what I would have done. Might have been wrong, but gee, it would have been exciting. That would have been a good effort.

Well thought out response can't disagree with that at all. I posted early in the piece that I was happy we weren't being vocal in the 17 year old draft and that we had sealed the leaks meaning anything we did would have been behind closed doors, then lo and behold we announce our intentions. Someone mentioned that when you go to an auction for a house you have a point where you stop, and that's true, but you don't get involved if you have no intention of buying the house and you don't attend the auction if you don't have enough to buy it anyway or it's going to sell for more than you are prepared to pay.

[Dr. Mubutu 853]

Well thought out response can't disagree with that at all. I posted early in the piece that I was happy we weren't being vocal in the 17 year old draft and that we had sealed the leaks meaning anything we did would have been behind closed doors, then lo and behold we announce our intentions. Someone mentioned that when you go to an auction for a house you have a point where you stop, and that's true, but you don't get involved if you have no intention of buying the house and you don't attend the auction if you don't have enough to buy it anyway or it's going to sell for more than you are prepared to pay.

Unless the people who buy this house also want the house that you really want, and forcing them to buy this one at an inflated price then means you get your preferred house on the cheap......

[Jordie_tackles 354]

1. Harrington was quite open about making a serious play for the mini-draft.

2. In his role he would have known what the main competition - GC and anyone else with a compo pick- would be prepared to offer.

3. He states today we had a bale out position which we were not prepared to go past.

4. Despite what some say on here, I don't believe it was any secret what GC, in particular were prepared to offer. Gunston walked out on Adelaide some time back, meaning that they would also be able to improve their position through that trade.

5. I can only assume that with all this information he genuinely believed that we were never a realistic chance based on what we were prepared to offer and his sole aim was to make the other clubs bid what he felt were overs. (If so - fair enough).

6. My opinion - with Viney already in the bank, why would we not trade away both compo picks and 12 if necessary to pick one of the two players who are universally acknowledged as the being top 3 or 4 in this draft if eligible. Our compo picks are most likely going to be somewhere between 10 and 16 when they eventually fall, depending on when others use theirs. Pick 12 this year is more like an early 20's pick given the concessions already granted to GWS in terms of the 17 year olds they took last year. So, in reality, we would have been sacrificing two mid to late first rounders and an early second rounder in a normal year for pick 1 or 2. That's what I would have done. Might have been wrong, but gee, it would have been exciting. That would have been a good effort.

All true

Im still keen on a few players around the 12 mark however, Greene, Buntine, Paine and Mckenzie sound like they could be worth the pick

And when we have 3 first round picks anything is possible, we could land 2 pretty good players with them through trades, however unlikely this may be

[Dee Fan 3,247]

Unless the people who buy this house also want the house that you really want, and forcing them to buy this one at an inflated price then means you get your preferred house on the cheap......

Have you ever bought a house, good doctor? I must say I've bought a few in my time and I've very rarely come across the same people even though it's in the same area and a similar house. Each one is generally unique and has it's own set of bidders.

[Axis of Bob 11,812]

If I go to an auction with the intention to buy then I need a point that I won't go past. If you don't then you are only screwing yourself.

But, it doesn't mean that I don't want the house. It just means that there are also other houses that represent value and will offer better value than the original when the price of the original gets too high. If someone is willing to pay too much for the house then you walk away .... disappointed, but satisfied that you kept your head.

If you just want to win the auction then, in effect, you lose.

The 17yos aren't the only options. We have the best hand in the next draft, which is alleged to be incredible. Alternatively we have the best hand for the next 17 yo draft if we want to participate.

[Dee Fan 3,247]

All true Im still keen on a few players around the 12 mark however, Greene, Buntine, Paine and Mckenzie sound like they could be worth the pick And when we have 3 first round picks anything is possible, we could land 2 pretty good players with them through trades, however unlikely this may be

Greene would be a very good get I reckon, if he's still there that is.

[Dr. Mubutu 853]

Have you ever bought a house, good doctor? I must say I've bought a few in my time and I've very rarely come across the same people even though it's in the same area and a similar house. Each one is generally unique and has it's own set of bidders.

Well in this case, you can only have 18 bidders, ever, for ANY 'house', so I'm sure we'll see some of the same people at auction from time to time.

[beelzebub 23,376]

Unless the people who buy this house also want the house that you really want, and forcing them to buy this one at an inflated price then means you get your preferred house on the cheap......

yep..its like any auction. You go there with real intents . You go with an eye to the market, but on teh day bidders can get carried away. The intrinsic value of the bidded item hasnt really changed just the emotion of some of those desiring the outcome of their choice.

You dont really know though what an auctionwill do until it starts.. all prior considerations are supposition. It then gets trumped by reality.

Its all a game.

[Jacked Up 0]

I think this thread is premature.

How can we judge the use of the picks when we havent got to the end of Draft week yet.

Hyperthetically what if it turns around and BP and TH get a Boak or a Gaff....etc. We will be starting a thread lucky we held on to the priority picks to snare these guys!

Lets wait till the end of the week comes around before we lynch the Bloke!

Also if you think this is a solely Tim Harrington decision without BP, Neeld, Craig, Scwab, Lion being involved in the decision making I think you're kidding yourself!

[beelzebub 23,376]

Have you ever bought a house, good doctor? I must say I've bought a few in my time and I've very rarely come across the same people even though it's in the same area and a similar house. Each one is generally unique and has it's own set of bidders.

And thats where houses and players diverge. We have clubs all after very similar things in a very confined market. Bound to attract a few familiar faces at different bargaining tables.

Edited October 12, 2011 by belzebub59

[Jesse Christ 2,884]

I would never buy a house from Sheedy.

[Dee Fan 3,247]

If I go to an auction with the intention to buy then I need a point that I won't go past. If you don't then you are only screwing yourself. But, it doesn't mean that I don't want the house. It just means that there are also other houses that represent value and will offer better value than the original when the price of the original gets too high. If someone is willing to pay too much for the house then you walk away .... disappointed, but satisfied that you kept your head. If you just want to win the auction then, in effect, you lose. The 17yos aren't the only options. We have the best hand in the next draft, which is alleged to be incredible. Alternatively we have the best hand for the next 17 yo draft if we want to participate.

If you pay $50k or even $100k more for a house it's al forgotten in 5 or 6 years down the track, you just look back and thank you lucky stars that you got in when you did as the prices in the area have increased dramatically since you moved in.

Of course you can be conservative and miss out every time, then tell all your friends how lucky they are to have a house whilst you're still renting and probably always will because the price increases ensure you will never be able to buy.

[BAMF 4,353]

Well thought out response can't disagree with that at all. I posted early in the piece that I was happy we weren't being vocal in the 17 year old draft and that we had sealed the leaks meaning anything we did would have been behind closed doors, then lo and behold we announce our intentions. Someone mentioned that when you go to an auction for a house you have a point where you stop, and that's true, but you don't get involved if you have no intention of buying the house and you don't attend the auction if you don't have enough to buy it anyway or it's going to sell for more than you are prepared to pay.

I'm sorry Robbie. But i'm not sure what your point is with this post.

What are you saying? That we shouldn't have announced our intentions earlier this week?

That you should only go to a house auction if you think you have enough cash and that no one will bid higher than you?

Im not trying to troll. I just generally cannot understand your point.

[Dee Fan 3,247]

I would never buy a house from Sheedy.

I wouldn't even sell him one.

[beelzebub 23,376]

I think this thread is premature.

How can we judge the use of the picks when we havent got to the end of Draft week yet.

................................................

Dang you ...ya just upped and went and spoiled all the fun some of the MFCSC ( or whatever its called ) worrywarts were having.!! Bad robot !!

[Jesse Christ 2,884]

I would sell him one, it will be termite infested and be insulated with feces.

[BAMF 4,353]

If you pay $50k or even $100k more for a house it's al forgotten in 5 or 6 years down the track, you just look back and thank you lucky stars that you got in when you did as the prices in the area have increased dramatically since you moved in.

Of course you can be conservative and miss out every time, then tell all your friends how lucky they are to have a house whilst you're still renting and probably always will because the price increases ensure you will never be able to buy.

So if I don't overspend on a house im going to be renting forever?

[Angelus BTVS 31]

Well thought out response can't disagree with that at all. I posted early in the piece that I was happy we weren't being vocal in the 17 year old draft and that we had sealed the leaks meaning anything we did would have been behind closed doors, then lo and behold we announce our intentions. Someone mentioned that when you go to an auction for a house you have a point where you stop, and that's true, but you don't get involved if you have no intention of buying the house and you don't attend the auction if you don't have enough to buy it anyway or it's going to sell for more than you are prepared to pay.

Spot on all points make sense and really all there is to it now is some of us would have gone for it and some of us wouldnt. I would have. The benefit of having an O'meara/Crouch down at the club with Viney having 2 pre seasons and 1 year of playing for Casey seniors while learning the ropes of Neelds gameplan to me would seem a huge advantage going into the 2013 season, you would be bringing in kids that were ready to go and pretty much you would know exactly what you were getting with these kids. The further down the pecking order of the draft the more unknown it becomes, yes you may strike a nugget of gold which is hard to strike (hope we do). but more often than not especially of more recent years as recruiting has gotten better the top end picks seem to be getting pretty bloody good. Murphy, Gibbs, Kreuzer, Watts, Natanui, Hill, Trengove, Martin etc some other muppett

[Dee Fan 3,247]

I'm sorry Robbie. But i'm not sure what your point is with this post. What are you saying? That we shouldn't have announced our intentions earlier this week? That you should only go to a house auction if you think you have enough cash and that no one will bid higher than you? Im not trying to troll. I just generally cannot understand your point.

What I'm saying is you don't bother going to an auction unless you are prepared to pay the price and you generally have an idea before you go what you will be up for.

For instance if you believe that a house will sell for $1m and you are only prepared to go to $800k then why bother. When you go to an auction you have to factor the spur of the moment bid as well so your limit must be what you are prepared to pay plus what your wife forces you to go to because she badly wants the house.

We knew that GC were going to put Pick 4 on the table it was well publicised and it was also well known that they would have to part with a compo pick. If we weren't prepared to match or better that then why would you put your hand up?

[Dee Fan 3,247]

So if I don't overspend on a house im going to be renting forever?

Probably.

[Jesse Christ 2,884]

So if I don't overspend on a house im going to be renting forever?

Is there a real estate thread on Demonland this conversation can take place, cos it's starting to stray away from draft talk metaphor into actual real estate talk.

Back to the topic at hand people. We didn't pay what we perceived to be overs on what is essentially an un-tried commodity. Simple.

So now we move back in with the parents, save some more money, and go out again and hit the market when the time is right for us!

There's your real estate analogy [censored]!

[Axis of Bob 11,812]

You need to do the sums and work out the point where you may find renting to be better for you than overspending on a house.

As the old saying goes, there's more than one way to skin a cat.

To take the argument to extremes, would you have traded Watts for Crouch? Why/why not?

At what point would you have said that too much was too much? What would have been your ceiling price for O'Meara/Crouch?