THE DRAFT'S ILL WIND

[Demonland 71,639]

THE DRAFT'S ILL WIND by Whispering Jack

I risk being described as a bit of a naysayer about the coming AFL National Draft but everything I've seen, heard and read about it suggests that the draft pickings are slim and that apart from the new Greater Western Sydney Giants franchise, there will be no real beneficiaries when the clubs meet somewhere in the Harbour City in November to pick their next crop of recruits. The Melbourne Age resident writer on draft matters agrees with me - Talent pool a tad thin. 

I concur with most of what Emma Quayle says except for the "tad thin" part. I reckon it's downright anorexic!

The shallowness of this year's draft pool also impacts on the new boys from the western suburbs of Sydney because, once you get past the first two or three players, there are very few who you can point to and compare with top ten picks of past bumper drafts. 

This stands to reason to some extent because, before this season even started, GWS was given the opportunity to select a dozen of the best 17 year olds who would have otherwise been available for drafting later this year. Names like Jeremy Cameron, Curtley Hampton, Dylan Shiel, Adam Treloar and a few others are already in the new franchise's system and are playing for the Giants in the new NEAFL competition. However, the word from insiders is that even with these few better players, that list nowhere nearly approximates the Gold Goast equivalent from last year. It is also thought that the development of the Suns' list was better enhanced by its participation last year in the stronger VFL competition.

I thought it might be worthwhile at this stage to highlight the situation regarding the order of the 2011 NAB AFL Draft later this year to give an appreciation of some of the concessions available to the Giants:-

2011 draft order

Round One

1. GWS Giants

2. GWS Giants

3. GWS Giants

4. 2011 AFL - 17th

5. GWS Giants

6. 2011 AFL - 16th

7. GWS Giants

8. 2011 AFL - 15th

9. GWS Giants

10. 2011 AFL - 14th

11. GWS Giants

12. 2011 AFL - 13th

13. GWS Giants

14. 2011 AFL - 12th

15. GWS Giants

16. 2011 AFL - 11th

17. 2011 AFL - 10th

18. 2011 AFL - 9th

19. 2011 AFL - 8th

20. 2011 AFL - 7th

21. 2011 AFL - 6th

22. 2011 AFL - 5th

23. 2011 AFL - 4th

24. 2011 AFL - 3rd

25. 2011 AFL - 2nd

26. 2011 AFL - 1st 

The GWS Giants will also have the first choice in every succeeding round of the draft.

The order will change of course. Choices can be traded, there are compensation picks from last year that can be included at the option of clubs holding them and more compensation picks available to clubs that lose players at the end of the year. 

The Giants will also be able to barter players within the State system for picks with other clubs as the Suns did last year.

Then there's the rather ominous rule that gives them access to one uncontracted player per club over two years. I use the word "ominous" advisedly because you would have to be living in a bubble if you weren't aware of the moves by GWS to steal priority draft pick Tom Scully from Melbourne under the rule which is so stacked in favour of GWS that it would be virtually impossible for the Demons or any other club to match financial offers.

In a recent interview with reporter Mark Stevens, AFL CEO Andrew Demetriou indicated that the world won't end if Tom Scully defects to the Greater Western Sydney Giants. True, but Demetriou also "bristled at suggestions it would be a bad look for the game" if he went. He is terribly wrong if he really thinks that way.

Apart from the complex issues on a number of levels about depriving clubs of such young talent before its anywhere near developed, there's the intriguing matter of what compensation would be available to the club should Scully take the money and run to Rooty Hill. 

The Stevens article states:

"Melbourne is likely to get a first round pick, to be taken immediately after its routine first pick, as compensation if Scully walks.

"AFL football operations manager Adrian Anderson yesterday said the AFL would not divert from its formula, despite Scully being a No.1 pick as recently as 2009."

Should that be the case, then it would not only be a "bad look for the game", it would also be a bad look for the administrators involved, particularly Demetriou and Anderson who appear to be hopelessly conflicted on the whole matter.

In the first instance, they have the task of ensuring that the GWS Giants enter the competition next year with the capacity to hold their own against the other clubs. On the other hand, they must make a decision on compensation which by any measure of fairness would, in Scully's case, require at least a first selection to be given to Melbourne. 

But Anderson has already pre-judged the issue by stating that the Demons must accept its "formula" although it is understood that provision exists for anomalous situations. As if this  isn't an anomalous situation par excellence?

A mid first round selection is not anywhere near adequate compensation for a first year pick with two years of development invested in him and up to a dozen years of potentially high quality service to be provided in the future.

The same Mark Stevens who wrote this article which concluded that "Demetriou said he went out of his way to avoid knowing if anybody had signed with GWS - and throughout last year also shied away from gaining any Gold Coast information," said yesterday on Triple M's pre-game show that he is now certain that Tom Scully has agreed to go to GWS. Of course, this could well be sheer coincidence but the entire scenario is starting to exude a bad odour. Bad for Scully, bad for the Melbourne Football Club, bad for the new franchise and diabolical for the AFL and its administrators. The draft is bringing an ill wind in the way of the football world.

There is another new concession to GWS which relates to players who turned 17 years of age between 1 January and 30 April, 2011. Such players are able to nominate for a one-off "mini draft" during the 2011 trade period and be traded to another AFL club a year before they would otherwise be eligible as part of GWS's concessions.  GWS can trade up to four players over the next two trade periods.

This is significant because the flip side of the weak draft pool is that the following year's group looks particularly strong. The 2011 NAB AFL Under-18 All Australian team which was announced yesterday highlights this point.

Metro dominate AA selections

Defenders: Jed Anderson (NT), Michael Talia (Vic Metro), Brandon Ellis (Vic Metro), Brad Crouch (Vic Country), Brody Mihocek (Tas), Alex Forster (SA)

Midfield: Billy Longer (Vic Metro), Dom Tyson (Vic Metro), Stephen Coniglio (WA), Jaeger O’Meara (WA), Toby Greene (Vic Metro), Will Hoskin-Elliott (Vic Metro)
 


Forwards: Chad Wingard (SA), Sam Mayes (SA), Lachie Whitfield (Vic Country), Ben Kennedy (SA), Jonathon Patton (Vic Metro), John McKenzie (Tas)

Interchange: Mitchell Grigg (SA), Brodie Grundy (SA), Taylor Adams (Vic Country), Clay Smith (Vic Country)
 


Coach: Rohan Welsh (Vic Metro)


Assistant Coach: Matt Armstrong (TAS)

Only fifteen of the 22 All Australians selected are eligible for the main draft and one, Coniglio, who is considered a certain top three selection, has yet to nominate because he also has a promising future in cricket to consider. Six others are too young for the draft although four of these players can be recruited as 17 year old trades from GWS in the special "mini draft" (while at the same time compromising future drafts). One AA player (Anderson) has already been claimed by GWS as a zone player from the Northern Territory. 

The leading contenders for the "mini draft" were all selected in the AA side. Brad Crouch, Jaeger O’Meara, Ben Kennedy and Brodie Grundy can nominate before 1st August and trading for them promises to be frenetic given that so many clubs have limited ability to regenerate their lists due to the highly compromised situation facing club recruiters this year.

Later: Whispering Jack will reveal his favourite among the young up and comers. Hint: he's a player who won't be drafted in 2011 and his initials are JV!

[Dockett 32 1,239]

Excellent Whispering. Very much enjoyed that read.

I doubt if the issue of conflict for AFL administrators is likely to diminish short term and rightly so. Proposed compensation for TS, should it come into play, is just absurd and completely unreasonable. Accordingly I don't agree that clubs have to sit back and meekly accept that line of garbage provided by Anderson.

Anyhow what you have said leads me to the view that the MFC have done over the past few years has been brave with a longer term view.I know we all get [censored] off with poor performances and smashings but Demonland is a wonderful avenue for therapy to help us with that. Maybe however when we look back we will be seen to have taken our medicine early.

Ex maybe one or two uncontracted players who may walk, we still should be in pretty good shape due ongoing incremental improvement in the normal course of doing business.

The graph may not be so pretty for other clubs with ageing lists. I'm not sure where they go, frankly don't care and wouldn't be placing much on the table for them to 'pick over'.

In short after reading your article I'm hoping we don't have to do much trading other than the compulsory.

[rumpole 515]

Hmmm, conflicts of interest, compensation issues ... very, very interesting.

I can see this panning out in some learned legal counsel's chambers or a courtroom if things go a certain way.

[einstein251 61]

So when exactly will there be the next fully uncompromised draft?

The coming years are still going to be heavily affected by the inclusion of the new clubs and the rules introduced to ensure they are strong.

[Striker475 696]

So when exactly will there be the next fully uncompromised draft?

The coming years are still going to be heavily affected by the inclusion of the new clubs and the rules introduced to ensure they are strong.

Arguably I'd say 2013. 2012, by the rules of it, will be uncompromised regarding teams getting extra picks, but because GWS will probably spoon it it means that 2013 will be the first one where a non-new club is likely to finish bottom.

In terms of latest though, I'd suggest it would be the 2017 draft - the first draft where no club will have concessions.

[Pink Freud 364]

It stands to reason that we should aim to secure one of the players in the 17 y.o mini draft. It gives you a good chance of picking up a future elite player even I'd you have to wait a year before he can play. In our case, we would get two elites at the start of 2013 because Jack Viney comes in at the same time.

[w00dy 146]

Firstly, the AFL has all but confirmed that Scully will be deemed to be the same level of compensation as Ablett if he signs, meaning 2 first round draft choices. Happy that we will get this if he leaves.

What I'm thinkiing, and although I wouldn't like to deal with those GWS grubs, is trading those two picks for the first crack at the 17 yr olds, and grabbing O'Meara. If we were to do that, we may not have lost that much, will wait and see.

Having said that I think Tom will stay. But the AFL are taking every opportunity to get him up there, tightening the screws on third part arrangements. But Juddy will still be allowed to keep his... Absolute disgrace...

[Dockett 32 1,239]

"Firstly, the AFL has all but confirmed that Scully will be deemed to be the same level of compensation as Ablett if he signs, meaning 2 first round draft choices. Happy that we will get this if he leaves.

What I'm thinkiing, and although I wouldn't like to deal with those GWS grubs, is trading those two picks for the first crack at the 17 yr olds, and grabbing O'Meara. If we were to do that, we may not have lost that much, will wait and see.

Having said that I think Tom will stay. But the AFL are taking every opportunity to get him up there, tightening the screws on third part arrangements. But Juddy will still be allowed to keep his... Absolute disgrace... "

Agree with most of that except don't know anything about the under 17's.

Think I'm happy with MFC performance in all of this so far and I have a feeling they still may have left some powder dry. The MFC have supported Tom all the way, been civil in their conduct and can hold their head up whatever the outcome may be. I think they have learned a lot from the Ablett issue.

I like the way for instance they have somewhat taken back the initiative (someone a long while back in another thread mentioned timing being important and I think they might be right) by putting the cards on the table and making the market. It's certainly flushing out a few now.

The previously acceptable 'third party' party issue raised its head and was quashed in record time by the AFL. This action doesn't only have ramifications for us, it will have ramifications for all, including GWS and whilst it may level the playing field a little going forward it by no means satisfactorily addresses the fact that the AFL seem to be making rules on the run. This latest quashing casts a very great shadow over the integrity of the AFL in relation to its previous dealings in the Judd case.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the AFL action pretty much says direcetly to the MFC that on one hand the Judd issue of third party trading wasn't an issue, but the Scully one is? (Rather flippantly referring to a very recent rule change - funny about that and I wonder why the sudden change?)

In other words to my eyes the AFL seem to have been complicit in deliberately disenfranchiing the MFC not once, but twice!Maybe the MFC wanted this to be out there for all to see.

Next the the MFC action then automatically trips the compensation meter (Nice timing again by the MFC) and look who bobs up, Old Uncle Eddie, everybody's friend (after Anderson's compensation comments )and what's he worried about ( nothing to do with the macro or supporting another club who looks a chance to lose a bloke who hasn't played two years for them and the correctness or otherwise of this matter) no sir, he's now suddenly worried about the MFC being overcompensated. The rules on compensation (this week as I understand them) are based on several criteria including age and the future salary offer. Now hypothetically if a Collingwood player like Thomas were to go to GWS presumably he would be older and it would be hard to imagine he would get more than $1mio a year. So any chance UE might be concerned Scully might stay and "oh sh.t maybe when I really look at the compensation issue its not all that fair afterall!"

[jayceebee31 759]

The depth of this draft is very thin.However, the way Scully has played this year, a couple of good draft picks is a better result for us.

[bing181 9,197]

.... and this from today's HUN. It's in regard to Richmond, but could equally apply to us:

"The difference between ninth and 13th in ladder speak means absolutely nothing when it is all said and done, but the difference between ninth and 13th on the draft table is six spots this year due to Greater Western Sydney's involvement. In a draft in which the talent is meant to fall away dramatically after the top 15 picks, the Tigers really should consider "developing their players by exposing them to new positions on the field".

[H_T 3,043]

.... and this from today's HUN. It's in regard to Richmond, but could equally apply to us:

"The difference between ninth and 13th in ladder speak means absolutely nothing when it is all said and done, but the difference between ninth and 13th on the draft table is six spots this year due to Greater Western Sydney's involvement. In a draft in which the talent is meant to fall away dramatically after the top 15 picks, the Tigers really should consider "developing their players by exposing them to new positions on the field".

If Port Adelaide win they save themselves from the dreaded wooden spoon and Gold Coast would secure the no.4 pick. With Port getting pick no.6.

Could Melbourne be the first team to win an AFL match on the Adelaide Oval ? And does it really matter if we finish as high as 9th, netting pick 17 ?

[felixdacat 459]

Was sitting down thinking how the draft will look this year and...well anyway this is what I have discovered so far...make of it what you will!

Currently the 2011 Draft Order looks like this:

Round One

01 GWS Giants

02 GWS Giants

03 GWS Giants

04 Gold Coast Suns

05 GWS Giants

06 Port Adelaide

07 GWS Giants

08 Brisbane Lions

09 GWS Giants

10 Adelaide

11 GWS Giants

12 Melbourne

13 GWS Giants

14 Richmond

15 GWS Giants

16 Fremantle

17 Western Bulldogs

18 North Melbourne

19 Essendon

20 Sydney Swans

21 St Kilda

22 Carlton

23 West Coast Eagles

24 Hawthorn

25 Geelong Cats

26 Collingwood

GWS First Round Compensation picks if utilised in this draft would be in this order but as other have said it would be better to hold off.****

** Adelaide

** Melbourne

** Melbourne

** Fremantle

** Western Bulldogs

Round Two

27 GWS Giants

28 Gold Coast Suns

29 Port Adelaide

30 Brisbane Lions

31 Adelaide

32 Melbourne

33 Richmond

34 Fremantle

35 Western Bulldogs

36 North Melbourne

37 Essendon

38 Sydney Swans

39 St Kilda

40 Carlton

41 West Coast Eagles

42 Hawthorn

43 Geelong Cats

44 Collingwood

Round Three

45 GWS Giants

46 Gold Coast Suns

47 Port Adelaide

48 Brisbane Lions

49 Adelaide

50 Melbourne

51 Richmond

52 Fremantle

53 Western Bulldogs

54 North Melbourne

55 Essendon

56 Sydney Swans

57 St Kilda

58 Carlton

59 West Coast Eagles

60 Hawthorn

61 Geelong Cats

62 Collingwood

**** If Melbourne hold off until 2013 - 2015 whatever draft they nominate the Round One pick will take place after Melbourne 1st Round One pick therefore "should Melbourne earn the right for selection 12, the compensation selection would be number 13, if Melbourne earn the right for selection four, the compensation selection would be number five etc" AFLWebsite The Mid Round One Selection used between 2013 - 2015 can be at pick 11 any any year i.e "at the middle of round one, after the round one selections for those clubs that have missed qualification for the finals in that year and before the round one selections of those clubs that have qualified for the finals in that year" AFLWebsite

If you also throw other clubs that have compensation picks it will get messy plus the Father and Son rule for J Viney in 2013. My understanding of the F & S rule is each team below us on the ladder at season end 2012 have a chance to nominate for Viney in any round if they do we need to out bid them in that round so for example in 2013 Melbourne will have to use their 1st round selection, to secure Viney if another club decide to bid their 1st round selection for him.

Anyway that's my understanding of what't coming up, If I have made any mistakes I am sure someone will point them out.

Edited September 14, 2011 by Felix da Dee