Road to the Finals - Round 19

[The Chazz 4,077]

Tough round of football this weekend, especially for our boys who still need a couple of results to go our way. Again, for those interested, here are this weeks crunch games;

Sydney vs Hawthron

Who do we need to win: Hawthorn

Who will win: Hawthorn

Tough game in Harbour Town this week, with both teams struggling for form of late. Looking at the match-ups on the field, the smart money would lean toward the Hawks, although their NSW form isn't the best going around. We need the Hawks to get up, I think they will...just.

North Melbourne vs Fremantle

Who do we need to win: Fremantle

Who will win: North Melbourne

At Etihad, and riddled with injuries to key players, the Dockers have to be underdogs going in to this game. While the Kangaroos battled last week against the Dogs, I think they will have Freo's measure this week - I hope I'm wrong!

Melbourne vs Richmond

Who do we need to win: Melbourne

Who will win: Melbourne

While it might be seen as a danger game, our form over the past month should see us hold off the Tigers. Going in to a game debt free for the first time in years, if our boys don't run out with that fire in their guts burning, nothing will get them up.

Adelaide vs Western Bulldogs

Who do we need to win: Western Bulldogs

Who will win: Western Bulldogs

Even at Moron Park, the out of form Crows tackle the top 4 Dogs as 2nd favourites. The Dogs are flying since leaving Aker at the departure gates, and I think they will clip the wings of the Crows this week and win comfortably.

Therefore, the important part of the ladder should look like this;

7th - Carlton (40)* assuming they beat Essendon - may be changed to 36 points.

8th - Sydney (36)

9th - North Melbourne (36)

10th - MELBOURNE (34)

11th - Adelaide (28)

Possbilly 1/2 a game out of the 8 at the end of this round, with a big game next week. Wont hurt if the Kangaroos get up this week, really need the Hawks to do the job though!

Have a great weekend all!

[Old Gregg 1]

Adelaide are out of the hunt....Essendon v Carlton is a far more important game for us. If Hawks and Dons can both get up...top 8 here we come!!

[The Chazz 4,077]

Adelaide are out of the hunt....Essendon v Carlton is a far more important game for us. If Hawks and Dons can both get up...top 8 here we come!!

Possibly correct about the Crows - they will drop off this thread if they lose this weekend.

Carlton still have a couple of easy-ish games, and I think they will win a couple more before the end of the season.

The danger team is Port Adelaide, but we will wait and see after this weekend. They may get a spot in my weekly preview after this round.

[45HG 1,559]

Go Dees! (still trying to keep a lid on it)

[Inner Demon 1]

It's all about Carlton & Sydney.

The other teams aren't relevant provided we win 3/4 games. If we don't win 3/4 games then we can't make it.

[titan_uranus 25,043]

It's all about Carlton & Sydney.

The other teams aren't relevant provided we win 3/4 games. If we don't win 3/4 games then we can't make it.

Not entirely true.

If Sydney beats Hawthorn, and we beat Richmond, then, since we play Hawthorn next week, we could be level on points with Hawthorn with 2 games left to play. Hawthorn's last two games are against Fremantle and Collingwood.

Having said that, I doubt Sydney can beat them, despite their loss to Port last week.

[Disco Demons 92]

if we win our last four games will we make the finals?

or are we still depandant of other sides losing?

i'm guess the answer is yes...how high can we actually finish?

Edited August 6, 2010 by disco_demon

[titan_uranus 25,043]

if we win our last four games will we make the finals?

or are we still depandant of other sides losing?

If we win our last 4 games we finish on 11 wins and a draw (i.e. 46 points).

Currently Hawthorn has 9 wins and a draw (38), Sydney and Carlton have 9 wins (36) and North Melbourne has 8 wins (32). So if we win 4, we can afford Sydney and Carlton to win 2, and North could win 3, and we would still make it. We could also make it if Hawthorn wins 2, we win 4, and we make up the 10-15% difference between us and them.

[The Jacks 0]

I've got Sydney beating Hawthorne and us still making the finals. With the way the fixtures pan out, I'm pretty sure we'll make the finals if we win 3 out of our last 4. Any three wins will do, but we really need to be beating Richmond and North at home and take one win out of Hawthorne and Port away.

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

Not entirely true.

If Sydney beats Hawthorn, and we beat Richmond, then, since we play Hawthorn next week, we could be level on points with Hawthorn with 2 games left to play. Hawthorn's last two games are against Fremantle and Collingwood.

Having said that, I doubt Sydney can beat them, despite their loss to Port last week.

There are two elements we need a minimum of 42 points preferably 46 (4 more wins) AND Sydney and Carlton to falter.

A narrow opportunity at best. After experiencing 1987, I will continue to dream B)

[Red Sox 2]

1987 was such a great great time.

It's hard to see such a repeat of this but the dream is there. There are many things that could turn easily in our favour if we win this week, it really is quite open.

[H_T 3,049]

1987 was such a great great time.

It's hard to see such a repeat of this but the dream is there. There are many things that could turn easily in our favour if we win this week, it really is quite open.

The gate won't be open unless we win 3 or 4 of the remaining games. Don't mean to quell all the excitement and dreams; but finals is still a way off. Would be a good stepping stone for development nevertheless. But a small one in the great scheme of things in pursuit of a Premiership.

As Jim said, we're only at "the bottom of the mountain"..

[DemonTux 97]

"the bottom of the mountain".. = "bottom of the 8"....?

[Sir Why You Little 37,128]

1987 was such a great great time.

It's hard to see such a repeat of this but the dream is there. There are many things that could turn easily in our favour if we win this week, it really is quite open.

From the Game against Geelong at VFL Park until the sadness of the Prelim-i was walking on water in '87 it was trully surreal. I hope we can do it again, would certainly help Jimmy's recovery-all that positive energy.

What are the Bookie odds on us playing finals at this stage?? I think we will get in, if the players stay tough and play each quarter hard.

[The Chazz 4,077]

The gate won't be open unless we win 3 or 4 of the remaining games. Don't mean to quell all the excitement and dreams; but finals is still a way off. Would be a good stepping stone for development nevertheless. But a small one in the great scheme of things in pursuit of a Premiership.

As Jim said, we're only at "the bottom of the mountain"..

HT, it is still possible for us to make it winning 2 of the next 4. Would we want to with that form? Some say "hell no"! I say "bloody oath". Results would need to go our way - hence me starting this weekly thread leading up to the finals.

At the end of the day, there will be a pretty average team that lands 8th spot, might as well be us!

[Nasher 33,617]

Really enjoying this series billy - you're saving me the trouble of working it all out each week. Keep it up.

[The Chazz 4,077]

Really enjoying this series billy - you're saving me the trouble of working it all out each week. Keep it up.

Cheers Nasher.

I think you can pretty much lock in the top 7 positions already;

1. Collingwood

2. Geelong

3. St Kilda

4. Western Bulldogs

5. Fremantle

6. Hawthorn

7. Carlton

While there is still 4 games to go, and anything is possible in these weeks, the only real change in this oredr will be the top 2. Even if Carlton had've got rolled last night, their run home has a couple of games where you would expect them to win. That's why I haven't included them in any of these threads. The ladder is finalised after round 22, and people shouldn't get causght up in the "now" ladder, especially with some of the games coming up (hence me not being too concerned if we lose to the Hawks next week).

8th position is the one up for grabs, and will really come down to the final game of the round (which amazingly is us v Nth on a Sunday twighlight - Vlad's crystal ball must have been a bit foggy a couple of weeks ago when he finalised the round 22 fixture). On a positive (?) note, 8th place WILL play Freo in Freo in the first final. I think Freo are beatable in that match - mor so than if we (or 8th) had to face Hawthorn or Carlton at Etihad/MCG.

Reality is, every Melbourne supporter needs to be riding Hawthorn home today. If Sydney win, it means we can't lose any game for the rest of the season, which is going to be a difficult task. If Sydney lose today, the have Freo away next week, Bulldogs at home the week after, then Brisbane at the Gabba in the last round.

Our unexpected finals aspirations really could be shutdown today should the Swans get up.

GO HAWKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[45HG 1,559]

Carlton's win last night is a real disappointment too.

[The Chazz 4,077]

Carlton's win last night is a real disappointment too.

Not really 45, they were going to make it anyway with their draw. I never factored them in to miss out - was never going to happen. As I said in my previous post, we need to look at the ladder after Round 22, not at the end of Round 19, as there is still a lot of footy to be played.

However, I am always disappointed when Carlton win, regardless of where they are on the ladder and who they are playing!

Edit: Last sentence.

Edited August 7, 2010 by billy2803

[45HG 1,559]

Well, of course Carlton winning is dissapointing!

But they have Richmond (should win) Geelong and then Freo away. There was a good chance that, had they lost, they could've ended on 40 points - meaning 3 wins would put us above them.

Edited August 7, 2010 by 45HG16

[Sir Why You Little 37,128]

Carlton's win last night is a real disappointment too.

Yes i agree, i was quietly barracking for essendon last night, but they were absolutely woefull.

Just a bunch of closet street fighters Essendon.

Any way Carltons run is still reasnoably hard, as is ours-so we just gotta keep winning!!

We owe the Shockers one...

[Dreamin' Demon 10]

GO HAWKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Just the thought of barracking for these p***ks this makes me sick!!!

But I understand where you are coming from billy2803.

[Spaghetti 264]

Not looking good for our chances... North and Sydney both having dominant first quarters...

[Deetective Sgt. Taggert 389]

Not looking good for our chances... North and Sydney both having dominant first quarters...

Freo has caught up a bit now wihtin 11 points, but Sydney is thrashing Hawthorn in the Second. Will need a big turnaround to get the result we are hoping for

[Deetective Sgt. Taggert 389]

Freo has caught up a bit now wihtin 11 points, but Sydney is thrashing Hawthorn in the Second. Will need a big turnaround to get the result we are hoping for

The only consolation may be that if Hawks play this bad next week we'll be in with a chance to beat them which would keep our finals chance alive, but we'll have to win all our remaingin games now you would think to get in...