Melbourne season preview - Me? I Like Football

[The Hitman 11]

Thought you'd want to check out our new site's 2015 season preview for the Dees.

Genuinely after the thoughts of Melbourne fans and interested in feedback, as well as what the realistic aims for the season from you guys are. I've helped run Hawk Headquarters for nearly 15 years, and I've always rated Demonland as one of the best club forums around, so thanks in advance for having me.

I've posted the whole thing here, sans images, to show I'm not trying to spam; hopefully that's okay for the mods. I'll let the author know I've posted it here so he can respectively engage, and if you want to see the version on the site you can by clicking here.

2015 season preview: Melbourne

By Andrew Lowcock

LAST CAMPAIGN

After some early splutters learning a radically different possession-based game plan, the ‘Roos-volution’ at Melbourne gained momentum in the first half of the season with notable wins against Carlton, Adelaide (away) and Richmond. A sole, albeit highly memorable, win over Essendon was as good as it got after the month of May, and a 4-18 record saw the Demons only avoid the wooden spoon on percentage.

The Dees averaged a league worst 60.7 points a game and a misfiring forward half was responsible for frittering away several other winning chances. On the other hand, a reduction in points conceded from nearly 2,700 to less than 2,000 is an indication coach Paul Roos had a positive impact in his first season in charge, despite the low tally of wins.

Nathan Jones claimed his third consecutive ‘Bluey’ Truscott Medal as the club’s best and fairest player, but was pushed by gun young recruit Dom Tyson and former Crow Bernie Vince, while veteran Daniel Cross proved another shrewd addition – the delisted free agent claimed a top five finish and a was great role model for the Dees’ numerous young midfielders.

Neville Jetta’s reinvention as a small defender earned him a top 10 finish, just ahead of Jack Watts, who continues to be a source of frustration and unrealised potential despite an improved season.

I KNOW WHAT YOU DID LAST SUMMER

James Frawley’s departure came as a surprise to no one, and at least gave Melbourne the chance to plan for life without him – and, far more notably, gain an extra first round draft pick.

As a result the Dees nabbed the second and third brightest young talents in the country in Christian Petracca and Angus Brayshaw. The latter should feature prominently in 2015, but Petracca’s entrance will be delayed by 12 months after he suffered a serious knee injury at training in February – a cruel blow for youngster and desperate fans alike. Oscar McDonald joins his older brother Tom and is a long-term key defender, while Billy Stretch – who already has senior SANFL experience under his belt – was recruited under the father-son rule with the club’s third round draft pick.

Paul Roos has always favoured bringing in experience over untried talent, and four players with AFL experience arrived over summer. Heritier Lumumba will add plenty of dash and a much needed older head with big game experience. Sam Frost fills the Frawley void and, at just 21, can grow into the key defensive role he was starting to undertake at Greater Western Sydney. Former Blue Jeff Garlett provides a much needed extra attacking option and can provide defensive pressure from the front, while midfielder Ben Newton is looking for an opportunity that was simply not available at Port Adelaide.

None of these acquisitions will revolutionise Melbourne, but they do represent a much needed broadening of the senior talent pool.

Perhaps the most important addition, though, was in the coaching box; Simon Goodwin has been brought in to be Roos’ 2IC before taking over the senior job in 2017. Goodwin’s experience with premiership coach Mark Thompson at Essendon, and his two years with Roos, should equip him nicely for the challenge of lifting Melbourne back into serious contention towards the end of the decade.

THE CHALLENGE

The Demons have had 18 months to work with the Paul Roos game plan and expectations are significantly higher as a result. While finals looks too lofty a goal in 2015, it’s not too demanding to expect a more potent attack, with Jesse Hogan (after a rookie year largely spent in the rehab room) and Jeff Garlett to become important parts of the forward six.

The Dees have demonstrated they can follow the blueprint to an extent with high possession numbers and improved skills, but without avenues into attack and key position targets, it will amount to nothing. Thankfully, Melbourne’s midfield looks deeper and should be able to impose themselves for longer spells in games. Another year of sub-10 goal scores will bring heat on the coaching staff and questions about a potentially outdated game plan.

Three non-finalists in the first three games open the door for a good start, until you realise two of these three games are interstate and the home opener will be against the rising Suns. Then follows Richmond in an Anzac Day eve Friday night blockbuster, and a horror stretch of Fremantle, Sydney and Hawthorn. The Demons will need to bed in its new recruits and young talent quickly, as a poor start will again see Melbourne in the bottom reaches of the ladder early in the season.

THE COACH

HIs long-term successor now anointed, Paul Roos has two seasons left to whip Melbourne into competitive shape after the worst decade in the club’s proud history. His first year was largely about restoring pride, and on that measure it was a success, though a number of blowout losses in the last eight weeks undid some of the good early work. He will be judged much more on the win-loss column in 2015 – significant progress is expected.

A high-possession game plan is again expected from Roos. In a pre-season game against the Western Bulldogs, the Dees had 160 more disposals than the Dogs but could only turn it into a 7-point win, yet again highlighting how they must make much more of their spells of domination within games. Under Roos, Melbourne will probably not be the most free-flowing or attractive club to watch, but considering the task of re-education required after the disaster of the Bailey/Neeld years, that’s not the immediate priority.

THE STAR

Nathan Jones has been the Dees’ best player during its recent laments, but in Dom Tyson, Melbourne has someone who looks ready to assume the mantle of midfield leader. Eleven Brownlow votes in a four-win team on the back of an average haul of 24 disposals a game saw him finish second behind Jones in the club’s best and fairest, all at the age of just 21.

His ceiling looks the highest of any midfielder at the club, and with peers like Jack Viney, Jimmy Toumpas, Christian Salem and Angus Brayshaw to assume more of the load this season, Tyson should increase his already impressive numbers.

ON THE RISE

Dom Tyson’s name could easily appear here too, but behind Tyson in the midfield pecking order is Jack Viney. Coming off 20 games in his second season at a tick under 20 disposals a game, and giving Nathan Jones much needed help at the contested ball, Viney has already shown his worth as a second-round father-son pick in 2012.

There’s no doubt that Viney’s future is set to be spent on the bottom of a thousand packs, doing the grunt work for the Demons’ legion of other young midfielders. The way Viney overcame the hullabaloo of a high-profile tribunal case – where, to the relief of nearly all football devotees, he was eventually cleared on appeal of rough conduct – indicates there’s a very old head on young shoulders that should see higher honours in the future.

IN THE GUN

It may be harsh to include Jack Grimes considering his injury history, but he has played 54 games over the past three seasons. Turning 26 in May, Grimes is theoretically in his prime, and no longer has the expectations that come with club captaincy after stepping down from his share of the role at the end of last season.

It’s fair to expect a bigger input than the 18 disposals per game he’s averaged over the last two seasons. While Grimes has mostly plied his trade off half back throughout his career to date, it will be interesting to see if Roos has a specific role in mind for Grimes in 2015; his versatility enables him to play a variety of roles, both down back and in attack.

BEST 22

B: Tom McDonald – Lynden Dunn – Colin Garland
HB: Jeremy Howe – Sam Frost – Neville Jetta
C: Jack Grimes – Jack Viney – Heritier Lumumba
HF: Jack Watts – Jesse Hogan – Bernie Vince
F: Jeff Garlett – Chris Dawes – Jay Kennedy-Harris
FOLL: Mark Jamar – Nathan Jones – Dom Tyson
INT: Angus Brayshaw – Daniel Cross – Jimmy Toumpas – Christian Salem

Note: Christian Petracca not considered due to a season-ending knee injury

THE VERDICT

Melbourne will almost certainly improve on last season’s win tally, so the real question is: can they leave the bottom feeders behind and enter the bloated middle bracket of teams thinking about finals?

The answer in 2015 appears no, unless Melbourne can revolutionise its approaches into forward 50 and Jesse Hogan is able to make an impact beyond already high expectations.

The defence looks solid if not spectacular with Sam Frost in place of James Frawley, while the exciting young midfield brigade led by Dom Tyson and Jack Viney should continue to develop quickly. Turning extra midfield dominance into scoreboard pressure will be the key to any relative success against expectations in 2015.

OUR PREDICTION

More wins, but escaping the bottom six and joining the lengthy bracket of teams around the middle of the ladder looks beyond Melbourne in 2015. We have the Dees finishing 16th.

[praha 11,240]

Tough URL...

I have them finishing anywhere between 18th and 8th. I have no idea tbh. It's less about how I think the team will go, and more about how I have no idea what other teams will be like.

It's a very tough year to predict from 5th-place down imo.

[Sir Why You Little 37,011]

Very good summation. But i expect a higher finish than 16th

That i agree will only happen if we learn to maximize scoring opportunities whilst in possession of the footy

160 more possies for a 7 point win against a 2nd string Footscray is not nearly good enough.

[Moonshadow 17,675]

Good write up, hope we prove them wrong in a positive sense. Not sure I agree with the team line up, but that's always debatable. Thanks for sharing it hitman.

[AzzKikA 2,371]

Good work, thanks and welcome.

The only gripe i have is saying Grimes is versatile, strongly disagree with that one.

[ChaserJ 5,082]

Thought you'd want to check out our new site's 2015 season preview for the Dees.

Genuinely after the thoughts of Melbourne fans and interested in feedback, as well as what the realistic aims for the season from you guys are. I've helped run Hawk Headquarters for nearly 15 years, and I've always rated Demonland as one of the best club forums around, so thanks in advance for having me.

I've posted the whole thing here, sans images, to show I'm not trying to spam; hopefully that's okay for the mods. I'll let the author know I've posted it here so he can respectively engage, and if you want to see the version on the site you can by clicking here.

Good read Hitman. Balanced and informed.

Look forward to reading more in the future.

[Watts Jurrah Dunn? 735]

I think 16th is spot on, depending on what happens with Essendon. I'll be disappointed if we don't pass the Bulldogs having lost Griffen, Cooney, Higgins, Liberatore and possibly Crameri, and I'd expect us to stay above the Saints.

But with only 4-5 bona fide AFL mids (Jones, Tyson, Cross, Vince, and possibly Viney) I don't think we can surpass sides like GWS, Brisbane, Carlton, Adelaide etc. There's just not enough quality through the middle where games are won and lost.

It won't be until the likes of Toumpas, Salem, Newton, Petracca, Brayshaw, Neal-Bullen, Stretch step up over the next 1-3 years and become at least B-grade midfielders that we will be able to move up the ladder. We also need another elite user of the footy off half back because sides will very quickly put work into Salem back there.

I think Frost, Newton, Lumumba and Garlett will mean we kick more goals and are in games a lot longer. I also hope that by now we are not on the end of any 10+ goal drubbings.

Very accurate to put Grimes in the gun as well. Has noticeably trimmed down so that he can cover the ground better but if his kicking doesn't improve his days are numbered. Hopefully he can come good as we know he bleeds red and blue.

[Young Dee 1,303]

BEST 22

B: Tom McDonald – Lynden Dunn – Colin Garland

HB: Jeremy Howe – Sam Frost – Neville Jetta

C: Jack Grimes – Jack Viney – Heritier Lumumba

HF: Jack Watts – Jesse Hogan – Bernie Vince

F: Jeff Garlett – Chris Dawes – Jay Kennedy-Harris

FOLL: Mark Jamar – Nathan Jones – Dom Tyson

INT: Angus Brayshaw – Daniel Cross – Jimmy Toumpas – Christian Salem

Note: Christian Petracca not considered due to a season-ending knee injury

Not a bad line up but I think Grimes, Toumpas and Brayshaw would be under pressure - maybe by Newton, Michie, Kent and Vandenberg.

Can't Believe Grimes is 26 already - I have grown to doubt him although he did play well against the doggies. With Salem and Jetta looking good in the backline Grimes might be forced up the ground.

Our midfield is still limited but will grow over time with Salem, Toumpas, Brayshaw, Petracca ANB and Stretch (surely we can develop a couple right...?).

We do have a solid tall backline - I would throw Salem back and maybe move Howe up forward (at least for Rd 1 given we don't have Dawes).

I would say our key weakness is our reliance on Dawes - I'm a big fan but if he doesn't perform/gets injured then all the pressure is on Hogan to be that big pack smashing forward (it can't be watts/Pedo).

[binman 42,810]

Hard to argue with that assessment. Two things I'd add are that, one we are in the best shape injury wise (and in terms of number of players who have completed more than 80% of preseason sessions) at this point of preseason for many years. Secondly with the improved fitness of our existing players and the introduction of some fit new ones our list has never been fitter

[CBDees 3,167]

Interesting how everybody's comments mention how our midfield will improve next year when Petracca joins it after 12 months on the sidelines, yet nobody in their comments have made any mention of Trengrove! Both were recruited with the #2 pick as 'gun' midfielders, yet Trengrove has had nearly five years in the system and has captained the Club. How quickly everybody seems to have written him off from our future plans!

[Young Dee 1,303]

Interesting how everybody's comments mention how our midfield will improve next year when Petracca joins it after 12 months on the sidelines, yet nobody in their comments have made any mention of Trengrove! Both were recruited with the #2 pick as 'gun' midfielders, yet Trengrove has had nearly five years in the system and has captained the Club. How quickly everybody seems to have written him off from our future plans!

Probably don't want to raise expectations after Clark. He has been in the system for a while but he has also been off legs for a very very long time - how long will it take for him to get back to an AFL level? (that's if he can stay on the track). Then there's the fact that he was fringe 22 when he was playing (hopefully somewhat due to his foot).

[The Hitman 11]

I like Jack Trengove, and I hope he gets back to the form of his first two seasons, but he was struggling to stay in the side before his injury, wasn't he? Or can that be written off to the burden of that silly captaincy call?