Diamond_Jim

Oh my childhood maths...... my earlier post was slightly wrong... and I am completely sober !! the odds if we are at 50% chance of winning each game are of course 1in 16 (so around 6%) Whatever it is a long shot when you put it that way If you were to say we were a 90% shot to beat Carlton and a 50% shot to beat Geeelong (well it is dream time) Swans and GWS are both an 80 % chance to beat North Then the probability moves up to 30% which still is not mind blowingly great

if you multiply out all the probabilities 6% is about right. Remember for us to get in 4 events have to go the right way... even if they were all a 50% probability the chance of all four events going that way is 1in 8 or around 13%.

Academies are the new Zones. As usual it will assist the interstate clubs. If we are going to continue with the NT experiment we may as well lobby hard to "own" the NT academy. We wont succeed but we may get some crumbs.

It is the old AIS Academy as I understand it. From the AFL site The NAB AFL Academy aims to prepare the country's best young players for the step up into senior AFL football. Launched in 1997, the Academy provides elite young players with a NAB AFL Academy scholarship, as an opportunity to develop their football and personal skills in an accelerated AFL program over 12 months. The level one squad of 25 players is selected following the NAB AFL Under-16 Championships, and the level two squad includes the best 35 under-18 players in the country. These players are eligible for the upcoming NAB AFL Draft. In 2015 there were 203 graduates of the NAB AFL Academy on AFL lists, including nine of the then-captains.

Only Academy players (It is made clear if you click on the "related news" link) An independent list picked from all young players would be fascinating though

I hate to admit it but I was there that day. Was brought along by some friends who lived on the Glenferrie train line. I was young and really cannot remember the game save that everyone told me it was a biggy. The first game in my memory was against Footscray in 1962 after begging my father (who was a Queenslander) to take me along Thanks

Buckenara's kick sailed through goal post high. The 15 metre penalty made it easier and of course has become part of Demon folk lore. Hawthorn got thrashed the next week by Carlton in the GF after having the week off. Of course one never knows what might have happened and that is what makes '87 so special. One of my bad memories of the Preliminary Final (and of course there are many) was the way two Hawthorn players (Tuck and Dipper if I remember correctly) engaged in a co-ordinated two sided bump onto Robbie Flower. Not illegal but a very low act

I certainly can .... the rooms both before and after a game welcomed one and all It was so different to today

Nothing can be like '87. 23 years in the wilderness ..........almost a whole city barracking for you..........having the wind for three quarters at Waverley and then that unbelievable end to the dream. After the siren the crowd was hushed. People wandered the car park trying to understand what had happened that day. It was very special. No it's not '87 but it is a very good feeling.

Good post If at all possible we should include Salem this week but otherwise no change

a 40 point win in a relatively low scoring game was definitely a plus The Dream is alive........... YEAH !!

30 plus point win (make that 40) almost the same margin as half time .... hard to believe with all the doom and gloom on here Very good win interstate .......... and now for the Blues !!!!

From the AFL site " Melbourne has been inaccurate from set shots, only managing 3.7 (28) from this shot type. The story is worse from outside 30 metres where the Demons have kicked just 1.6 (12) from set shots. "

Always a chance mate but it did not look good

I just did some calculations on what is required by us to make up 6 percentage points on North. Not impossible but it requires some big wins and then decent losses (50 plus points) by North Wish I had not done that... I was mildly excited for a while

Fascinating that the Saints game is on the same time as ours. Not quite an '87 moment but eerily similar

Just read a headline in the SMH "Fuming Watts storms out of the ring less than impressed by the judges" Not sure if that is an omen and moreover whether it is good or bad !!!

A win this week is very important if we are not going to be seen as an "occasional performer." The Bulldogs last night won my respect for getting the job done despite their horrendous injury list. Must admit to watching that last quarter of the Hawks match a couple of times..... It was special

Best of luck and welcome to the Forum Good to see you here

Interesting thought but perhaps someone who follows "time on ground" could tell me if these players are rested these days given the limited interchange rule

Who else but Hogan whose thread is now at 44 pages and if I remember correctly is not the first on the subject.

wow...........48 pages...........glad that is over...........who is next for the record thread...........O no I forgot the H Bomb !!!

Free Agency was demanded by the AFLPA as part of their drive against the League's anti competitive practices. You cannot really complain about it as all major sports have similar systems to Free Agency. The real questions are compensation, salary cap relief and how you can "penalise" the receiving club without unduly restricting the free movement of players. Perhaps a system where the receiving club lost its draft choice at a round equivalent to that which the "giving" club received might be a start. As to all the other factors of prime time games, venues etc they are all AFL driven and could be changed if there was a will (which of course there isn't). A caller rang up 3AW last Friday night and said that in light of the low finishes of Richmond and Collingwood should we expect to see the likes of Melbourne and Bulldogs playing more Friday night games next year. The answer was "of course not it's all about ratings." It was not the answer that surprised me but the absolute dismissiveness with which the answer was delivered. When such attitudes prevail we have a very long way to go.

Agree 100% Remind me what Geelong "lost" to get Dangerfield

As the kick in is a major weapon to breaking the zone and a quick score at the other end the concept of "harassing" the kicker is certainly something to consider. Aaron was of course the consummate defensive forward. Who can forget those early years when he would run down a defender who would react with complete surprise.. He pioneered the role ....such memories.