Lucifers Hero

The AFL and broadcasters are currently enamoured with the huge tv audiences for weeknight games. I'm sure there are intelligent enough people to realise that is because Victorians don't have to get kids ready for school and because we can't go watch games live. Not to mention there is no other entertainment or socialising allowed. When there is some normality to our lives people won't be watching football on tv so much. But in a 'normal' season I won't be watching much footy on tv other than Demon games. And hopefully we won't be fixtured with many midweek games because it will be difficult to watch them live even if in Melb. It is a 'no' from me for midweek games. On the subject of normality, Wilson said on FC last night that the AFL think that footy may not start until May/June next year if covid is still an issue in Victoria where crows aren't allowed or restricted. That in itself is such a scary thought. So the season would start late or the first half played interstate. There is a fair chance of condensed fixtures again next year.

This is how the run home looks with 9 wins to make the 8. Hard to see us not winning 3 of those 6 games. I think we will be playing finals, folks!!

fwiw the Fox final 8 is: https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2020-the-run-home-fixture-analysis-predicted-ladder-predicted-top-eight-after-round-12-finals-week-1-projections/news-story/00ad577a4478fbe03e624f3b72776423 1. Port Adelaide (12.65 projected wins) 2. Brisbane Lions (12.15) 3. Geelong Cats (11.35) [higher percentage than Eagles] 4. West Coast Eagles (11.85) [lower percentage than Cats] 5. Richmond (10.75) 6. St Kilda (10.7) 7. Melbourne (9.4) 8. GWS Giants (9) And those that miss are: 9. Collingwood (8.9) 10. Western Bulldogs (8.45) 11. Carlton (7.95) 12. Essendon (7.55) Giants are a rabble and until they get Toby Greene back they will struggle, so I can see them falling out and Pies going in.

Updated the Run Home Table for rnd 12. In this version, I've included byes and timed the rest of the fixture. Note: some teams have played 11 games, some 12 depending on their bye. Am thinking 9 games might be enough to make the 8. But I've left the table with 10 wins needed for this week. If it turns out to be 9 wins it gives the Pies an edge with their drawn game. It will depend how quickly they get their injured players back. They have a bye which will help. There is a very good chance the Giants will lose to the Eagles this week. If we beat the Bulldogs we put a game and % gap to our nearest competition. If it turns out that 9 wins is enough we need to win 3 from 6. Essendon are done! Everything has to go right for Carl to make the 8.

My apology that is Andrew Brayshaw....

...also on the leaderboard is: 11th Oliver 16th Viney 17th Brayshaw Quite amazing to have our 3 or our 4 midfielders in the top 20. And Max would be around 25-30 but he has missed a few games. Edit: 17th is Andrew Brayshaw

Coaches votes are in: 6 Ed Langdon (MELB) 6 Clayton Oliver (MELB) 6 Angus Brayshaw (MELB) 4 Christian Petracca (MELB) 3 Steele Sidebottom (COLL) 3 Taylor Adams (COLL) 2 Charlie Spargo (MELB) WOW. Big difference in view of the coaches! Best guess split: 5/1, 5/1, 4/2 for either Langdon/Oliver/Brayshaw 4 for Petracca 3 for Sidebottom 3 for Adams 2 for Spargo Langdon, Oliver and Brayshaw the only ones to get votes from both coaches. But coaches had a very different view on who was best or second best on the ground. Or 3rd best or 4th best or 5th best... Rapt for Langdon and Spargo to be among the votes. Petracca goes out to a clear second on the leaderboard with a game less. 75 Lachie Neale BL 54 Christian Petracca MELB 47 Travis Boak PORT 44 Taylor Adams COLL 44 Jack Steele STK

That's my fault. I didn't want to start a new thread so I chose the most recent available on Jones. Maybe the mods can start a new thread or find a better one. Or as you suggest they change the title.

its ok, no offence is intended. 'Broken' was Jones' comment about the captaincy: "I think physically I always felt like I was capable, (but) I think last year really broke me down mentally and come the end of the season I just had a lot to think about." He looks a happy man now.

When the whole team played ballistic, play-on-at-all-costs football he was one of the very few who stayed composed, did the old 'stop-and-prop' before finding a target. I understand that this can look slow sometimes but to my eyes it looks smart.

And people on here criticise his kicking! Posters will dig up his mistakes this year but in the big picture he is a rock in his position and gives us good drive from d50. Greatly underrated on this site.

Jones looks a happy man again. He is on 292 games. Play remaining 6 H&A games and gets to 298. It would be fantastic if we play a few finals and he gets 300 this year. What a final that would be!! Even tho I've said we don't owe players, if he gets to 295 - 299 games we have to give him a contract next year to get to the 300. Can't let him go if he gets so close. Lets hope we go deep into finals, Jones stays fit and keeps his spot.

For the Kozzy contract renewal: We know that Frtisch is closing in on a contract. And based on recent performances Spargo and Sparrow won't be too far behind. Hibberd has done enough for another contract. Will be good to see JV5 sign up. The players most vulnerable (excl Rookies) are Smith, Wagner, Hunt ? and a few others that aren't getting games on have long term injuries.

Tom Sparrow, Melbourne, has been charged with Engaging in Rough Conduct against Darcy Cameron, Collingwood, during the second quarter of the Round 12 match between Melbourne and Collingwood, played at the Gabba on Saturday August 15. In summary he can accept a $1500 sanction with an early plea. Charlie Spargo, Melbourne, has been charged with Rough Conduct (Dangerous Tackle) against John Noble, Collingwood, during the third quarter of the Round 12 match between Melbourne and Collingwood, played at the Gabba on Saturday August 15. In summary he can accept a $1000 sanction with an early plea. As in a game a few weeks ago it seems it is our guys who are getting fines and not the other team. Takes two to tango, Mr MRO But I do like their feistiness!

This article gives really good insight into our trade strategy. melbourne-s-trade-strategy- Essentially, it is to get talent now as in future years the draft will be compromised by new teams entering the comp. And this draft has a lot of footballers coming thru the ranks whereas in the beginning many players were from other sports.

Many, many thanks LT. I didn't notice Gus patrolling the middle so much in prior weeks but it stood out this week. Good to know my eyes aren't deceiving me. I really like him patrolling the centre square area. It helps us control the corridor as he is a smart football, reads the play well and can dispose on his left and right by hand or by foot. And has recently snapped goals from teh 50m line. He is a dangerous player stationed in the middle and Ops are less likely to risk going there with him lurking in wait. I like it also because it helps keep our attacking structures when the ball is in transition: the wings can stay on their side and Gus can act as link man with them and the other mids going past. The other thing I like about it is it helps us keep the ops to the boundary with little room to move. It is what Port did to us. It was like a sardine can along the boundary in that game. So the way I read it, Gus is not only playing that inside/outside mid role he is also a cornerstone of our defensive and attacking structures. Maybe it is no coincidence that our scoring and our defence improvement in recent weeks has been while Gus is patrolling the centre.

He seems to confuse an inside-outside mid with a wing man. To my mind Gus is currently an inside-outside mid. He can get the ball inside when it his turn to take the tap and spread out when it isn't. I think McGowan means Goodwin persisted too long keeping Gus on a wing.

Ess won't make finals. They need to win at least 4.5 to 5 of their last 6 games. Just can't see them getting enough wins with Rich, Port, Eagles, Cats in that last 6. We need to beat them to ensure we get enough wins for the 8 but they are no longer a threat, imv.

Hoping for a small win to the Saints. Will keep their %'age in check. %'age doesn't matter for Ess as they have the draw to protect their position unless they in a battle with Coll to make the 8!

Pies have been awful for a long time. In the last 2 months their scores (in points) have been: 44, 62, 50, 49, 45, 57, 59, 48. The compressed fixture, travel and injuries have hurt them over the last 3-4 weeks but there is no reason for the poor form in the early days of hubs. I don't think they can improve enough to play finals.

We won't get that chance unless we make finals as the only team above us that we have not played is the Saints. Our recent wins have been exceptionally strong so if we make finals the top teams won't beat us as easily as they did earlier in the season. What has been very impressive for a few months were our massive 4th quarter scores vs: Hawks, Crows, North and Pies. Even against the Lions we kicked 3.1 to their 0.5 in the final quarter. So the Port game aside, we are in great form. Feeling very optimistic.?

May I ask the source/author of that quote, please? I don't put too much store in it as we played 4 games in 16 days. Our defense held up fine. The author doesn't give us enough credit for a 10 goal shellacking! On the subject of changes: Time to really settle the team so minimal changes, allowing for 'resting' to ensure team fitness for the next lot of condensed games post Alice.

Wise and diplomatic, od!

A few days ago I said the last two spots in the 8 would most likely be claimed by the Dees, Giants or Pies. I'm ready to put a line thru the Pies. Reason being they can't score. In the last 2 months Collingwood scores (in points) have been: 44, 62, 50, 49, 45, 57, 59, 48. The compressed fixture, travel and injuries have hurt them over the last 3-4 weeks but there is no reason for the poor form in the early days of hubs. They had an excellent game plan/system but it has broken down and seemingly not easily fixed. Now they don't have the players to compensate for the broken system. On my earlier logic (post #62 in this thread) it leaves Giants and Demons as front runners for 7th and 8th. Too much can go wrong (and my mfcss) prevents me from saying we will be in the finals. But we are the form side of the other contenders (Bulldogs, Ess,) with a superior %'age. Suns and Blues out of the running imv. Finals, here we come...

We all have different tolerance levels. I don't expect much from any of them, Garry included. I prefer him to all the Ch 7 commentators who are drunk on the sound of their own voices! Except Daisy. She is numero uno! Bring back Denis Cometti! Whateley is ok when he doesn't sound like he is calling a horse race.