Lucifers Hero

Another critical figure to get down is 'Active Cases'. There are currently about 7,800. One would think it needs to be 100-200, especially if adding 20 per day. But Active Cases is proving to be a stubborn number to shift. After nearly 2 weeks of stage 4 it has barely moved. Three weeks ago we were getting 500 -700 new cases a day. On an average 14 day recovery cycle with 300-400 new cases of late the Active Cases should have been coming down by several hundred a day. Gov't can't ease restrictions with thousands of people walking around with it, even with a week or two of zero new cases. So, I see buckley's chance of restrictions easing any time soon. As awful as it may sound, we may still have some level of restrictions at Christmas. Every chance the AFL has been briefed by the Government that some sort of restrictions will be in place next year.

Nothing against Pendlebury personally but if they want to play with fire I hope he breaks down, they play one down, lose the game and he is out for the season. As I said, I'll believe it when I see him at the bounce.

Will wait for the first bounce to see if Pendlebury plays. A few weeks ago he was withdrawn during the warm up. His replacement was dressed and ready to go so it wasn't a last minute tweak. Wouldn't surprise if they don't repeat the stunt this week.

Hope you get to go and barrack for all of us DL's. Will be with you in spirit!

Yep, very happy with that variation!

While it is not ideal to not have a proven ruckman up against Grundy I reckon our midfield is much better than theirs. They have a rusty Sidebottom, a borderline fit Pendlebury (if he plays), Treloar out, Hoskin- Eliot borderline fitn (if he plays) which only leaves Taylor Adams. Put Harmes or Viney onto him and our midfielders should beat theirs, even tho they have the ruck advantage. Grundy isn't in great form anyway. We have 6 day rest to their 3.5. Their fwd line is suss at the moment. Eliot coming in will help. Stephenson and Milochek are out of form. Still very optimistic about winning this.

Preuss has not been on an injury list for some months. That he has only played one scratch match can only be because we did not include him in our hubs until the last intake. Then he had to do the two weeks compulsory quarantine away from the team hub so couldn't train or practice with the team. Leaving Preuss behind knowing we would have a condensed fixture was optimistic and somewhat reckless. If Preuss isn't ready to play or can't play out the game we have only ourselves to blame.

Posted this in another thread but equally relevant here: I feel time is starting to run out for teams that have played 11 games and outside the 8 (or in the lower part of the 8). I think we (and some other teams) have a real advantage over them. Use Bulldogs as an example: Assume 10 games needed to make finals: Bulldogs (on 5 wins from 11 games) need 5 wins from remaining 6 games. Whereas Demons (on 5 wins from 10 games) need 5 wins from remaining 7 games. Same logic applies to teams at the lower end of the 8. Maybe the Ess forced bye may come back and help us...

We have worked LJ pretty hard with 3 games in 2.5 weeks games with two lots of 4 day breaks so not really a surprise. I suspect he won't be the last. The policy of not resting players is catching up with us.

I chose Freo as their % is really poor and they would have to win an extra game to overtake us (unless we lose a few by a long margin). As an aside, I feel time is starting to run out for teams that have played 11 games and still outside the 8 (or in the lower part of the 8). I think we (and some other teams) have a real advantage over them. Use Bulldogs as an example: Assume 10 games needed to make finals: Bulldogs (on 5 wins from 11 games) need to win 5 from remaining 6 games. Whereas Demons (on 5 wins from 10 games) need to win 5 from remaining 7 games. Same logic applies to teams at the lower end of the 8. Maybe the Ess forced bye may come back and help us...

^^^^ Very impressive by Gus and a real vote of confidence from the coaches to make him our dominant CBA. As an aside, any idea what is included in CBA? With 18 goals scored plus a CB at start of each quarter equals 22. Excluding the CBA by Ruckman (EJ. TMac) I count 62 CBA by mid-fielders. Something doesn't compute...

Tipping those that can keep our competitors for finals out of the 8 or within striking range to overtake their spot in the 8. Sydney North Dees Crows Freo Saints Hawks Rich Underlined are unlikely but it is good to dream

Latest from AFL website: Max Gawn Shoulder/Knee - Test Marty Hore Quad/Toe - Indefinite Kade Kolodjashnij Concussion - Indefinite Jay Lockhart Corked thigh - Test Alex Neal-Bullen Suspension - 3 matches Harry Petty Groin- Indefinite Aaron Nietschke Knee - Season Jack Viney Concussion - Test Updated: Tuesday, August 11

Pies 'official' injury list as of last night. Dayne Beams Mental health Indefinite Jordan De Goey Finger 6-8 weeks Jamie Elliott Ear -Test Will Hoskin-Elliott Knee -Test Jeremy Howe Knee 6-8 weeks Will Kelly Elbow- Season Scott Pendlebury Quad 1-2 weeks Isaac Quaynor Shin 1-2 weeks Adam Treloar Hamstring 3-4 weeks Updated: Wednesday, August 12 The Pendlebury ref could be a furfy. Even if Elliot and Hoskin-Elliot play their fwd line doesn't look too flash. Haven't kicked more than 65 pts in the 8 weeks since they left Melbourne. And, didn't Roughead not finish the game due to concussion? 3.5 day break to our game would put him in doubt.

imv it is the Geelong game which will come back to haunt us: We experimented with 1 tall fwd (TMc who was badly out of form) - I wrote at the time it was very risky as we had few wins in the bank. And it disrupted our ball movement. We deserted our i50 when Geelong kicked from a pt or a mark, allowing them to chip short kicks around until our wall broke down . At no time did we change the wall outside the 50 arc and try and man up. So much for our supposed fwd pressure!! We were ill prepared. Goodwin said they didn't play the way he thought the game should be played. May said we planned for them but they changed tactics. Tactics (possession and control) that have beaten us time and time again. 112 marks to 52 says it all!! Neither the coaches nor players adjusted for the changed Geelong tactics. It was another games where we win some key stats (H.O and Clearances) but were badly beaten all over the ground.and We lost by 3 points. If we just miss finals that is the game that cost us.

Here is an article about how we are changing our game style. One thing is to not play-on as much and slow down our response time. We saw the beginnings of vs Carlton in the second qtr but we weren't too good at it then back then. But have improved immensely in the last month or two melbourne-demons-stats-finals-chances-analysis Less chaos, more composue! I quote it here because there is an interesting stat about Jack. 15 of 17 players have reduced there play on %. Jack has increased his by 12%. For a while I've had a sense that Jack plays his own game, his way. It may be a long bow to draw but one wonders if he is playing to coaching instructions. Edit: Fritsch has also gone up but I suspect that has more to do with moving from defence to fwd.

How good is that! Quote from the article: "Geelong monster Tom Hawkins is clearly the best one-on-one mark inside 50m. From Rounds 6-11 who is the second best? Is it Charlie Dixon? Perhaps Dustin Martin? What about Josh Kennedy? Wrong. It is Melbourne’s Sam Weideman" This year Weideman is averaging an elite three marks inside 50m. Sam came back in round 6. If that doesn't prove Wallace wrong, well... Not marking was a big knock on him last year. Not only is he marking, he is using his body and position well.

Guessing that his foot injuries prevent him from jumping to any height.

Rubbish! And what has Petracca got to do with this thread. At the risk of diverting this thread I want to put the record straight for Petracca and the claim it has taken 6 years. It hasn't! Year 1 - 2015. Out injured with ACL Year 2 - 2016. Out injured (toe) and debuted in round 6. Played mainly fwd. Kicked 12.11 Year 3 - 2017. Had his first full pre-season.Played mainly fwd. Kicked 22.6 Year 4 - 2018. Played mainly fwd. Had poor goal kicking 19.23 Year 5 - 2019 Played fwd and mid. Leading club goal kicker 22.14. Came 5th in BnF. Year 6 - 2020 A stellar year. Many DL's have mercilessly criticised him prior to this year but the results show 2017 and 2019 were good years. 2020 is no surprise to those who have been paying attention. Progressive improvement over 80 games in 3 - 4 years (2016 to 2019) to reach 'elite' level is outstanding. Still relatively inexperienced in AFL terms. There is no need to to refer back to his first 2 or 3 years. I get the feeling you just don't like him.

Damn! Just when I was thought the party had only just begun... '...can't quite compute 'party is over' with 'pollyanna'...? You make a valid point about the wider ovals. Hopefully, Langford and AvB (or whoever is on the other wing) help cover and defend the wider grounds better.

Undoubtedly Clarry has turned a corner. A point the article misses is for part of rnd 10 and all of rnd 11 we had a different mid-field structure and roles which have helped him with the turnaround. At this rate he could become an inside and an outside mid, adding more flexibility to our stoppage structures/clearance strategies. I'm quite excited by how our midfield is developing.

I'm not one who wants to play TMac. I'm ok with his roles in the ruck at VFL and give Max a break as we had no one else and it helps him in his defensive fwd play. Just saying his comparison with Hipwood is poor. In addition to the reasons mentioned above, during Sam's tenure we had Watts, Pederson and Hogan then Hogan and TMac so there wasn't a lot of room for Sam. He did a great job when called up to replace Jesse in late 2018 but we still had a 2 talls fwd structure. In 2019 the whole team was crap, TMac failed miserably leaving Sam to take the 1st defender, until he himself lost confidence and became injured. Meanwhile, Hipwood played a support role in a strong team. Wallace is comparing apples and oranges. Wallace may make sense at times, I just think this isn't one of those times. He has chosen the Weideman vs Hipwood scenario to pot the club.

Firstly, thanks for quoting the key parts for those of us who can't get behind a paywall. Wallace should check the facts. Sam's development has been interrupted by surgeries and injuries. It has been stop/start development. As for this 'Captain Obvious' comment: I think their best option has been (Luke) Jackson and Weideman … let those two develop. That is exactly what the club is doing!! Jackson has been at the club for only 5 minutes. Couldn't have done it any earlier! Comparing Sam to Hipwood is silly. Totally different builds and have had different roles: haven't seen Hipwood in the ruck. Wallace is amazing at how he can put words together that make little sense. Click baiter extraodinaire!

With last nights results, spots 7 and 8 and finals are up for grabs. Will be decided between: Saints, Bulldogs, Ess, Pies, Suns (maybe) and Dees. We play the first 4 in coming weeks; all 8 point games for us. Finals are now in our control. This has a 2018 feel about it: Shaky start. Smashed then players publicly blow torched by the club. Started getting some good wins (albeit vs mediocre sides). Then had 'must win' games vs goodish sides to finish off the season. Its exciting to see how far we can go. At least we are still a very good chance and it makes the rest of the season interesting. Feeling good about where we sit.

Thanks for the tip DS. Another (fairly strong) rumour is we play Ess in Alice in rnd 14. So a Cairns hub looks very unfair on us as it means a trip to Alice then a trip to Cairns after a long series of short breaks (without the bye other clubs have) for another series of short breaks. A bunch of clubs have hubbed in Qld from the start, have not hubbed anywhere else and barely left Qld, if at all: Richmond, Saints, Ess, Suns, Lions, Bulldogs... Those are the clubs that should be going to Cairns.