Lucifers Hero

For those surprised by Hannan's omission; he was ill apparently. https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/gawn-ruled-out-of-magpies-clash-20200814-p55ls8.html

I just listened to the audio and you are quite right; the written report showed only the Brayshaw on the wing part. I suspect Lewis wants to keep both Viney and Brayshaw but when it comes down to a choice he would trade Brayshaw. I hope our coaches find a way to keep both. Won't like it but would understand if Brayshaw decides to go. Owes it to himself to become the best he can be. I think Hudson may also be a geelong supporter so yeah, maybe there was quite a vested interest there.

Agreed. Buckley has a system proven to beat us. But with some of his prime-movers out De Goey, Stephenson, Howe and Treloar, I don't think he has the players to implement it. They are very good at spreading from the centre then fast play to a leading forward: Stephenson, Elliot, Cox etc. Thieir fwd line looks pretty ordinary today and now we have May and Lever They also plant an extra tall in our def which could be a problem. An even bigger problem is they exploit Viney's 'no right side' mercilessly. We need to watch that we don't get caught by them on these tried and true methods. The key will be what our coaches learnt from the losses earlier this season to those Buckley like tactics. Won't be happy if they haven't developed counter tactics or stubbornly stick to 'our way' even when it clearly isn't working.

Taylor Adams is the danger man. We will need to take him out of the play. Job for Harmes? Let our other midfielders take care of their hobbling/aging midfielders.

They believe that Oliver isn't damaging, despite his elite stats. That was fairly true until about 3 weeks ago. They haven't seen the 'new' Clarry at work. They are in for a big surprise!! He will thrash their hobbling midfield.

iirc Lewis was 'stood down' as an assistant coach when covid hit? I assume he no longer is connected to the club... Hudson: “What would they get for Brayshaw?” Whateley: “A lot. I reckon there would be a big cue for Brayshaw.” Hudson: “What’s a lot?” Whateley: “I reckon you would get a pick inside 12 or you would get a starter, you would definitely get a top 14 player for your own team and you might get a combination.” Lewis: “That’s enticing.” Not surprised there would be a queue for him and that they think we would get a top 12 draft pick and/or a very good player. It is only on DL that he is not valued by many. Only a few on here have not wavered in their believe in him year in and year out. Sigh... Tbh I'd rather keep Gus than get any draft pick even top #12. We need max synergy from the midfield as a whole and not just the best of each player. We have the rest of the season to ensure Gus wants to stay. Desperately hope he is in red and blue in 2021.

Selwood gets the oil treatment just before the siren at the start of games. I figure it is so he can slide down and milk all the head high frees. For others the oil hinders op tackling. Ops should tackle and roll them around in the dirt early in a quarter to rub the oil off.

Predict us to win. But it will come down to game plan. Collingwood consistently beat us on the outside and spread quickly ala Port and Lions loss. They are also good at the possession/control game in the back half ala WCE and Geelong loss. However, I think it is like the Hawks; they have a successful game plan but I don't think they have the players to implement it. Lets see what our coaches have learnt from the those earlier loses.

On the Coll side: In: Jamie Elliott, Scott Pendlebury, Ben Reid, Darcy Moore, Will Hoskin-Elliott Out: Brayden Sier (quad), Jaidyn Stephenson (omitted), Jordan Roughead (concussion), Tim Broomhead (omitted), Chris Mayne (omitted) Every chance Pendlebury and Hoskin-Elliot underdoen and other Key injuriey outs: Howe, Treloar, DeGoey Stephenson out is interesting...who is going to kick their goals! We have a much better team than they have and 2 days extra rest. Dees to win.

Do we have any cases under official (hotel) quarantine in Victoria? I think the current covid rules don't require home quarantine, just home isolation of which a huge % of +'ve people aren't doing. What is 'old' ? Apparently about half of recent cases have been under 40. My understanding of 'Active Cases' is Total Infections less Total Recoveries. Handy website with relevant info. https://covidlive.com.au/vic However Active is defined, the relatively high and constant number of cases aren't coming down at a rate that would suggest restrictions will be lifted anytime soon.

Goodwin doesn't mention Gus or his role in today's press conf. So 'pushed out' looks like mischief making by HS , drawing from past commentary and probably reading DL about who plays in the middle. Click Bait! Would be surprised if Gus doesn't get a fair amount of mid time.

WINNERS Port Adelaide: No short breaks and pretty easy opponents sets them up perfectly to finish on top of the ladder. Richmond: They avoid playing in WA at all this year, and have longer breaks heading into showdowns with the Eagles and Cats than their opponents. Hawthorn: The easiest remaining draw including four home games which could still be moved to Tasmania if they open their borders. LOSERS West Coast: Five games in 19 days, including two four-day breaks heading into their toughest games against Richmond and St Kilda. Essendon: They face three flag contenders in 11 days, plus their rescheduled game with Melbourne in Round 18, who’ll likely be playing for a spot in the eight. Sydney: They have games left against the teams currently 1st, 2nd and 3rd on the ladder. rounds-14-to-18-winners-and-losers About time Ess had a tough run. They have been blessed with little travel. Ditto Saints and Richmond.

I don't see it as being too bad: Round 14 comes after 4 rounds a week apart Sat (13), Sat(12), Sat(11), Sun(10). Sure rnds 15 (Swans, Thurs), 16 (Freo, Mon) and 17 (Giants, Sat) will be a bit nasty but then we have another 7 day break to rnd 18. And some bright notes: we can stay in Cairns for the Syd and Freo games and we do not play any team that is coming off a bye. Without comparing I suspect it is no worse than most teams. It looks like the AFL is saving the Ess game to see if is a play-off for a spot in the 8.

Below is a table to summarise 'Wins Needed' and 'Games Left' in the run home. It assumes 10 games required to make the 8. My contention is the first 4 will make the 8 (not necessarily top 4) and the last 3 (and those below them on the ladder) can't make the 8. So the discussion is for the 7 (middle) teams vying for the remaining 4 spots in the 8. My thoughts: Most Likely to make it: Saints (need 3 wins): Likely wins: Ess, Hawks. I think they will find another win and make it. Tigers (need 3.5 to 4 wins): Likely wins: GCS, Ade, Freo. I think they will find another win and make it. That leaves two spots: Pies (need 3.25 to 4 wins): Likely wins: North, Carlton, GCS. Can't see another 'obvious' win. Giants (need 4 wins): Likely wins: Ade, Carlton, Freo. Need another win. Ess (need 4.5 to 5 wins): Likely wins: Hawks but can't find other 'obvious' wins. % hurts them. They won't make it. Dees (need 5 wins): No 'obvious' wins and no 'obvious' losses. Every game will be a dog fight. Bulldogs: (need 6 wins): Will lose to Geelong and Eagles which means they fall one game short and have a poor % to overcome. So on my reckoning the last two spots come down to Pies, Giants, Dees. Special mention to Freo: They are the 'wild card'. I said early this week that and won't be easy to beat. They have recently beaten the Saints and Pies. They have a very good system and getting better at it with each game. They won't make the 8 but could have a big say in who does, playing 3 of the 7 teams (in blue) vying for a spot in the 8.

Another critical figure to get down is 'Active Cases'. There are currently about 7,800. One would think it needs to be 100-200, especially if adding 20 per day. But Active Cases is proving to be a stubborn number to shift. After nearly 2 weeks of stage 4 it has barely moved. Three weeks ago we were getting 500 -700 new cases a day. On an average 14 day recovery cycle with 300-400 new cases of late the Active Cases should have been coming down by several hundred a day. Gov't can't ease restrictions with thousands of people walking around with it, even with a week or two of zero new cases. So, I see buckley's chance of restrictions easing any time soon. As awful as it may sound, we may still have some level of restrictions at Christmas. Every chance the AFL has been briefed by the Government that some sort of restrictions will be in place next year.

Nothing against Pendlebury personally but if they want to play with fire I hope he breaks down, they play one down, lose the game and he is out for the season. As I said, I'll believe it when I see him at the bounce.

Will wait for the first bounce to see if Pendlebury plays. A few weeks ago he was withdrawn during the warm up. His replacement was dressed and ready to go so it wasn't a last minute tweak. Wouldn't surprise if they don't repeat the stunt this week.

Hope you get to go and barrack for all of us DL's. Will be with you in spirit!

Yep, very happy with that variation!

While it is not ideal to not have a proven ruckman up against Grundy I reckon our midfield is much better than theirs. They have a rusty Sidebottom, a borderline fit Pendlebury (if he plays), Treloar out, Hoskin- Eliot borderline fitn (if he plays) which only leaves Taylor Adams. Put Harmes or Viney onto him and our midfielders should beat theirs, even tho they have the ruck advantage. Grundy isn't in great form anyway. We have 6 day rest to their 3.5. Their fwd line is suss at the moment. Eliot coming in will help. Stephenson and Milochek are out of form. Still very optimistic about winning this.

Preuss has not been on an injury list for some months. That he has only played one scratch match can only be because we did not include him in our hubs until the last intake. Then he had to do the two weeks compulsory quarantine away from the team hub so couldn't train or practice with the team. Leaving Preuss behind knowing we would have a condensed fixture was optimistic and somewhat reckless. If Preuss isn't ready to play or can't play out the game we have only ourselves to blame.

Posted this in another thread but equally relevant here: I feel time is starting to run out for teams that have played 11 games and outside the 8 (or in the lower part of the 8). I think we (and some other teams) have a real advantage over them. Use Bulldogs as an example: Assume 10 games needed to make finals: Bulldogs (on 5 wins from 11 games) need 5 wins from remaining 6 games. Whereas Demons (on 5 wins from 10 games) need 5 wins from remaining 7 games. Same logic applies to teams at the lower end of the 8. Maybe the Ess forced bye may come back and help us...

We have worked LJ pretty hard with 3 games in 2.5 weeks games with two lots of 4 day breaks so not really a surprise. I suspect he won't be the last. The policy of not resting players is catching up with us.

I chose Freo as their % is really poor and they would have to win an extra game to overtake us (unless we lose a few by a long margin). As an aside, I feel time is starting to run out for teams that have played 11 games and still outside the 8 (or in the lower part of the 8). I think we (and some other teams) have a real advantage over them. Use Bulldogs as an example: Assume 10 games needed to make finals: Bulldogs (on 5 wins from 11 games) need to win 5 from remaining 6 games. Whereas Demons (on 5 wins from 10 games) need to win 5 from remaining 7 games. Same logic applies to teams at the lower end of the 8. Maybe the Ess forced bye may come back and help us...

^^^^ Very impressive by Gus and a real vote of confidence from the coaches to make him our dominant CBA. As an aside, any idea what is included in CBA? With 18 goals scored plus a CB at start of each quarter equals 22. Excluding the CBA by Ruckman (EJ. TMac) I count 62 CBA by mid-fielders. Something doesn't compute...