deelusions from afar

I'm no advocate for tanking but imagine the following scenario: If the wheels completely fall off for Freo and they are in the mix to go as low as Hawks / North / WCE, In round 21 we play North at Blundstone Arena In round 23 we play the Hawks. Say we have top 4 sewn up (I'm not counting my chickens, this is just a hypothetical). Imagine 'managing' a few stars or doing a heavier training load v North and losing... to the extent that it moves them above Freo on the ladder. It would be tanking but not to get the lowest pick... it would be tanking so that our opponent gets a higher pick than Freo (who's pick we hold). I don't think that has been talked about in AFL before. At the same time, North beat Collinwood last year and Collingwood were better than us last year and North are much better this year than last year.

Yeah I agree - though I am also intrigued to see what Schache can bring. His VFL form at the end of last year was very strong - stronger than Weid for example (and Weid is getting games in a side that has performed better than us this year) and he's continued this year. He is an untapped talent but I fear he ultimately lacks the mongrel you need. But if he gets a good run at it, he has all the tools to be a great player. Given the opposition over the next 3 weeks (North Suns Hawks), he has a decent chance to build some confidence and belief - if he does this he could hold his spot.

Does he have speed? Can he genuinely play outside? Is he an elite kick? Even if he was the next Oliver or Petracca (as an example) - would that be what we actually need for our window (next 5 years)? I think the main weakness for us is the outside class in the midfield - we've improved on last year but when I watch the pies or sydney (when on song) they've got a lot more elite ball users running through their midfield. I just find it hard to understand trading 3 first round picks in a super draft - history shows that there's always hype around one player and they rarely end up as the best player in the draft. I like the idea of getting best available with first pick, JVR's brother and then a smoky with the highest ceiling. But I'm not Jason Taylor

I think Grundy gives us a lot more to play with than we had with Jackson last year. It's about maximising the strengths and minimising the weaknesses. My fear with Grundy is that he's not accountable if his opponent pushes forward. But I suspect Jacko would have been similar in that regard. Equally as good as Gawn is forward of centre, if he can't actually kick straight (like on the weekend and the second half of last year) then it's all for nothing. Hopefully not too many more injuries to the talls allows us to experiment to find the right mix.

We might need to have a new white and brown jumper for the future "family round" the AFL will inevitably bring in.

I think JVR is listed 193, Lever 194 and Petty 197. Obviously it's going to be hard to spot a cm difference from a bit of distance. Interestingly Lever and Petty are both listed as 94kg while JVR is listed as 96kg. He's a big lad!

I think that's a bit of revisionist history there - we got a bit of a run on but had struggled to beat most of the top 8 sides during the season (although had a number of close losses such as Geelong x2). We beat West Coast but only when our finals were on the line and it was already sewn up for them. Even our finals match against Hawthorn after starting strongly they stiffled our movement until well into the last quarter. We had a great season and on our day could mix it with most... but our key defenders were Frost and O Mac! We overperformed to get to the final 4.

I've been a fan of Chandler for a while now (when many others at least on here were not). While I'm not super surprised with his inside 50 tackles stats (6th in the league) or his goal assists (3rd in the league) I didn't expect him to be so reliable in front of goal. Chandler is playing one of the most important and difficult roles in the team and couldn't be going much better. Good story of persistence - he has one injury away from being a premiership player in 2021 and then Bedford had his nose in front last year. I'm so glad we hung on to him and he stayed on!

Is he named after Chris Judd? (heard he was from Chris Judd's grandmother - a most reliable source on DL)

I actually think the round looks great - other than our game, most of them have potential to be close games (maybe Geelong v WCE and potentially Hawthorn v GWS aside) eg Bris play North but Brisbane away from the Gabba have been rubbish Pies play without a ruckman against undefeated saints Suns v Freo is interesting for us - but the ramifications of the loser are enormous. can you confidently pick it? Carlton v Adelaide - the way the crows are playing I think they might get them Sydney v Tigers - both underperforming and have significant injuries so a crucial '8 pt' game for both Port v Dogs - hard to get a form line of these teams but both capable of top 4 if they play at their best.

really? Maybe they're thinking exactly what we are

I'm not necessarily disputing that. But the fact that they had Langdon's average possession in the centre of the ground for last year suggests that because he changed wings each quarter from a statistical point of view (by staying on the same wing for the whole game), it cancels out the extremes from either wing. There's no way that he was getting most of his posessions in the centre of the ground! Think of the GF in 2021. GF | All the goals (I'm sure you won't mind watching this again!) Langdon was on the far side and Gus was always closer to the interchange. they might come into the centre - particualry in defence (eg to effect a spoil) but mostly they held their width. Obviously it just passages of play that scored goals - but I can't see any where they're not holding their width. If I'm right (I think I am) then there's not likely to be significant changes from Langdon - the main change is that the other winger (Hunter) is also holding his wing compared with Jordon / Brayshaw / whoever. Although a caveat on that is that last year our other winger played other positions during the year and this isn't taken into account in the statistcal analysis.

I'm interested in the graphics they show in the analysis where the players (such as Langdon and Hunter) average getting the ball on the field. They have Langdon smack bang in the centre for 2022 but for the three games in 2023, he is wide on the wing (compared to all other players) which is the mirror to Hunter on the other wing. My query on this is whether the change is actually because Langdon is playing the wing that suits his kicking foot (eg alternating each quarter) rather than the wing away from the interchange bench that he did before Hunter arrived. I suspect this is the reason for the change not what the article is actually suggesting.

Potentially had a little too much time on my hands to do this... but I was keen to see whether what I noticed re centre bounces was correct - i.e. Petracca was given less time in centre bounces earlier in the game to allow him to have greater impact later in the game. I was partially right - he had 3 CBA in the first quarter and 6 in each quarter after that. Though I think it was more to do with the timing of the centre bounces rather than a tactical reason. However going through this process I did notice a few things: Trac never started a quarter in the middle (quite different to last year) - potentially because he can be more impactful as the other players get tired during the quarter? There is a far greater spread compared to last year - with Jordan and Sparrow not a long way behind Trac / Viney and some cameos from ANB and Rivers. But no attendances from Brayshaw. Oliver and Grundy only missed one per quarter (other than in the first where Oliver missed two in a row - I suspect 2 goals in quick sucession and for Grundy the last two of the last quarter when the game was over). They are machines! Sparrow seems to have a licence to charge through and get the ball on the run every so often (it came off a couple of times) whereas Jordan seems to have more defensive roles. Rivers seems to be thrown in to get a taste and develop - is that similar to what Jordan / Sparrow got in 2020/2021? As unfair as it is, subject to any injuries my gut feel is that for Kozzie to come in, Jordan will be the one to make way as he also plays a mix of forward mid and unless he has a specific role, appears to offer slightly less than the others.

I guess drafting 18 year olds is an inexact science with so many variables - I think it's better to have a few irons in the fire rather than loading up on one (unless Taylor and co are 120% sure). It's not that I (or anyone else) wouldn't want the no.1 draft pick, it's more that if given the option, I'd prefer: Freo Pick 1: 5-12 + Our pick 1: 12-18 + Freo Pick 2: 23-30 Particuarly in what is reportedly a super draft year. Think of Port Adelaide in 2018 got Rozee (pick 5), Butters (pick 12) and Duursma (pick 18) or even our effort in 2019 with Jacko, Kozzie and Riv - nail the picks and it could get us the x factor to win a flag or set us up for life after Trac and Clarrie (which is still 7 or so years away!)

I know it doesn't work this way but if it did, I'd rather keep Kozzy than get a King. With JVR, Schache, Jefferson etc we have Key forward options going forward - and we might draft another talented one in this year's draft. We don't have to have the best key forward - just options that can take contested marks and be a reliable set shot. I find it amazing that many of the best key forwards that demand the big $$ are not overly reliable set shots! Kozzy is one out of the box that is likely to go up another level this year with time midfield and forward.

In fairness while Cal Twomey and Riley Beveridge are more reliable AFL "journalists" than many they are still AFL journalists which are trying to make stories out of nothing because the extra clicks is what pays the bills. It's pure speculation when the guy still has a year to play and anything could happen.

It's an interesting call - I was keen for this at the end of the last year. Notably Petty didn't spend any time forward over the pre-season and the club seems to have doubled down on TMac, BBB, JVR and Schache. But as you say, for May to come in, someone has to go out and Tomlinson has played better than Petty. I wonder if they think he is too good a player to drop and so they push him forward. Equally if they don't play JVR soon, Freo / WCE will be in his ear saying "we will play you each week". Given we are playing Sydney I think they won't want to change things too much but if there is a loss I think all of this will be on the table.

While this Reid kid sounds like a gun, it's not the first time a player has been considered a generational talent who will go pick 1 that would be worth selling the house for. In hindsight, if you have a good system (development, culture etc), it seems like 3 picks in the top 25 would be a more reliable bet - you could end up with the best player in the draft still and you may end up with 2-3 top 10 players in your team. E.g. here's a list of recent no.1 picks - there's hardly any that would now be considered the best of their draft. 2006 Bryce Gibbs Carlton Glenelg SANFL 2007 Matthew Kreuzer Carlton Northern Knights TAC Cup 2008 Jack Watts Melbourne Sandringham Dragons TAC Cup 2009 Tom Scully Melbourne Dandenong Stingrays TAC Cup 2010 David Swallow Gold Coast East Fremantle Football Club WAFL 2011 Jonathon Patton Greater Western Sydney Eastern Ranges TAC Cup 2012 Lachie Whitfield Greater Western Sydney Dandenong Stingrays TAC Cup 2013 Tom Boyd Greater Western Sydney Eastern Ranges TAC Cup 2014 Paddy McCartin St Kilda Geelong Falcons TAC Cup 2015 Jacob Weitering Carlton Dandenong Stingrays TAC Cup 2016 Andrew McGrath Essendon Sandringham Dragons TAC Cup 2017 Cameron Rayner Brisbane Lions Western Jets TAC Cup 2018 Sam Walsh Carlton Geelong Falcons TAC Cup 2019 Matthew Rowell Gold Coast Oakleigh Chargers NAB League 2020 Jamarra Ugle-Hagan Western Bulldogs Oakleigh Chargers NAB League 2021 Jason Horne-Francis North Melbourne South Adelaide SANFL

Yeah I agree. It was interesting watching us v the Doggies and realising we've now got a number of players in the team that are reliable by foot and capable of high level kicks. Eg add Hunter, McVee, Bowey, Rivers, Chandler - to the players that were already there (Spargo, Kozzie, Brayshaw) and we are able to do things as a team we couldn't previously. Then we have Fritsch, May and Salem all to come back in. This is a long way from where we were when Goody first came to the club! And oh course then there's the contested beast midfielders (Clarry, Trac, Vines) and the runners (ANB and Langdon) who are capable (but maybe due to their role) less reliable by foot.

Great post @Engorged Onion. I love it when people well thought expansive posts like that - particuarly on this thread! I think that what you hav e written makes sense - will be interested to hear others thoughts. A couple of additional thoughts to add to yours: 1. One aspect that I find interesting (but also a bit weird) is that I have heard a number of senior coaches say there are many trends in the game style that last 5-6 weeks so everyone is constantly evolving throughout the season - looking at what everyone else is doing etc. Eg if you stick with what you have in round 1, you'll get found out by the end - it's almost like they are saying you have to be on top of the trends when the pass the parcel music stops at the end of the season. To me that seems a bit over the top - and they are likely just trying to pad out the importance and difficulty of their job. What do others think? 2. I have found the analysis of David King on Collingwood in the last week interesting - eg going for the coridoor each and every time. He's spruiking it like its never been done before. I remember when we had game plans that went through the Centre (was it under Bailey?). When it comes off it looks great - but we were shut down easily as teams would stack the coridoor. So a few questions on this: How hard is it in the modern game to adjust a zone type defensive setup / press for an opponent that plays the centre coridoor (eg Collingwood)? Our game plan (like many others) seems to be based around encouraging teams to kick to the boundary so that we only have to properly defend one side of the ground. Can we adjust our setup for the coridoor style of play? Is the acquisition of Grundy and the way we have played him and Gawn in the matches (1 real 2 practice) an indication that we are trying to develop strategies to thwart teams that want to use the coridoor?

I reckon that's pretty good - for mine on team balance I'd have Chin in for Harmes or Sparrow. I hope they take advantage of this depth this year and rotate our players through

It's a fair question - I don't think I've seen enough of them to say for sure. I don't think there's any reason why Brayshaw couldn't be an elite clearance player... but it seems odd that he spends a lot of time in centre bounces for little return. He's one of the best players in the AFL so maybe if he's on a wing or HFF or HBF you'd maximise his abilities. Particularly when Fyfe is sitting in the forward line. Potentially its about Freo having the right mix in the centre bounces so that the players work together to block the opposition etc. But if Brayshaw is attending 17 (85%) CBs on the weekend and only getting 1 clearance I don't think its working. He also attended 17/18 centre bounces in the finals v the dogs and the pies and didn't get a clearance in either! We all know he can play - but maybe the opposition have worked him out, maybe he's not getting the support / blocks he needs or maybe he's not a natural centre bounce player.

Agree - can't see Roos backing up with such a young inexperienced side. At the same time, I could see them getting hold of Freo in the centre bounces. Contrary to popular belief, Brayshaw is not an effective centre bounce / clearance player and Serong is not currently setting the world on fire either - and yet they have both in for most centre bounces. Meanwhile Fyfe is in the forwardline looking like a fish out of water and Mundy has hung up the boots

This is exciting to hear... it's much better to watch as a supporter too. If they're moving it quick, it can be hard to stop - although if it was the only way we moved the ball, teams would clog the corridor so we ideally need to be comfortable doing it multiple ways. Did you notice designated players taking the corridor kick eg Bowey, May, Rivers etc or are they encouraging all players to do it?