Everything posted by Macca
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A Day at the Races
Well there's false favourites and other horses that seem like they are 'overs' ... the late money or lack of late money is often an accurate factor too. I've got a cousin who was formerly a leading bookmaker (retired now) and I reckon they know a lot more than we know. Their very existence is primarily based on getting the numbers right. The bookies would be loving all the money on the shorties ... they will almost certainly know that they can't all win and of course they can lay-off anyway. Punters are attracted to the short odds as well as the value. Multi's in horse racing are in the bookies favour too - offering the early cash-out isn't necessarily of benefit to the punters either. It's a way for the bookies to cut their losses. And multi's are hard to get anyway (especially with the horses) There's a lot of small donations that add up to a large total!
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A Day at the Races
What surprises me is how short a number of the favourites are Deeza ... nearly all of the shorties are up against any number of other quality horses in each of the 10 races where they are hot favourites and as we know, bad luck and interference can happen in any given race. For instance, if Nature Strip misses the start by even a fraction of a second, that might put pay to the horses' chances of winning. It has great early speed but it sometimes jumps a bit tardy. Big field with a lot of early speed - Nature Strip needs to jump well. And sometimes drawing an inside barrier might also mean that a horse needs to be ridden for luck (unless that horse has good gate speed) A good day for the exotics I reckon! n.b. JJ might be hosting from Morphettville again today as his tips haven't been posted up on Racing.com ... ugh.
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A Day at the Races
Avilius (no.8) is actually in race 9 (Peter Young Stakes) not race 8 anyway Wadda ... you may be thinking of Alizee in race 6. I get both horses mixed up as well sometimes - I'll leave it to you to figure out the combined odds ?
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Monkey Business
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Monkey Business
I've got my NBA tip worked out ... either a Sunday AEDT game or a Monday AEDT game. Might wait until you fellas ( @Wadda We Sing @Dee Zephyr ) have posted up your 'bests'. Or @binman if you are interested in chiming in. n.b. the exotic odds for NBA games are often not available until the early evening (AEDT) for games played on the following morning/afternoon (again, AEDT) My 'best' will almost certainly be a 'wire-to-wire' result.
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A Day at the Races
Not your favourite track Wadda? haha There's probably a way to work out a race at the Valley but I'm stumped if I know what that is ... even Gator struggles there and you can tell that he gets frustrated with the way the racing pans out at MV. I had a few bets and broke dead-even on the night ... but I'll take that as a win! (got an ok collect in the lucky last) We've talked about this before but my 3 favourite tracks are Flemington, Randwick and then Rosehill. Morphettville too but mainly because of JJ's expertise.
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A Day at the Races
Brett Prebble rides 'Embrace Me' to victory in the Typhoon Tracy Stakes in a big boilover. And all 4 of the fancied runners failed to get into the first 4 (which paid close enough to 27k) Didn't see that coming ... there again, the Valley can often throw up these sorts of results.
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A Day at the Races
Yeah welcome back BM And as Wadda mentioned ...to save any double-ups just do a quick scroll if you can (on the best bets) You won't have to scroll back very far ... usually on the same page. For instance, we had Osborne Bulls in the Lightning last week so that race was already being used ... unless you get in first of course! Good punting!
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A Day at the Races
You should be getting a total of 6 odds boosts per day at Laddies ... 2 win, 2 multi & 2 exotic But you can't use the same team or horse more than once to get the boost Look in the 'Bet Slip' area (top right) or do a dummy bet using 'add to bet slip' to find
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A Day at the Races
And there's a decent pipe-opener to begin the weekend's racing (tomorrow night at the Valley) A good betting race with at least 4 strong winning chances. Moonee Valley Race 7 Typhoon Tracy Stakes Group 3 SW+P 3yo Fillies
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A Day at the Races
Now that is a good multi and well thought out by the team. We only need the 1 win (Cool Passion) and we've got the leading tipster here (Deeza) with that one. The 2 place chances include Hartnell who is an absolute proven big race performer whilst Athiri has got the closing speed (with Craig Williams on board) to get into the finish. 77/1 is overs! (I just got on at 90-1)
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A Day at the Races
If I get any bonus bets I will be plunging big time on the Deeza pick. A free bet for a certain win! No pressure though Deeza
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A Day at the Races
I just got 4.90 (place) for Hartnell on Laddies ... the plunge is on though Wadda (emanating from 'land) so it will no doubt shorten!
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A Day at the Races
Use the pick anyway you like with these value picks Wadda ... if win & place I'd recommend 6 units the win, 4 units the place (money back for 2nd or 3rd) In the exotics I'd mark it on top with 2 others, in a quaddie as part of a multiple choice and in a multi - take your pick - win or place. But to make a choice - place preferred in a multi ($2.70) but the horse can win and Gator has picked it to win as well and that has reinforced my thoughts. As for Deeza's pick last week ... I got the win collect & the exacta (which paid surprisingly well) with 'Amphitrite' ... so 3 collects with our 3 picks. Overall, I was down a little bit last week but our picks got me close to breaking even. So the value was there. Gee I like the $4.40 for Hartnell (place) ... seems overs considering the class of the horse and it's ability to get into the finish.
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A Day at the Races
Race 6 is the Futurity Wadda ... you posted the Hartnell race as race 7 But you're spot on Wadda ... I'm going to go for the value pick as a value pick can be used for all sorts of reasons ... small win bet, the place, in quaddies and in all the exotics. I liked your pick last week (Osborne Bulls) because if the horse got into the finish I was highly likely to win (it didn't have to win) But I should emphasise that my choice of best bet is my preference only ... others can do whatever they like. Nice discussion mate. Best Bet Caulfield Race 7 No.11 Athiri $8.50 ($2.70 the place)
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AFLX Revamped
Related (in terms of odd versions of real sport) 'Live' tonight on Fox is the E-League (goes for 3 hours) ... A-League soccer clubs are represented by contracted players in the EA Sports FIFA video game. Are we supposed to actually 'barrack' somehow? What do they do in place of tossing a coin? The world we live in hey.
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A Day at the Races
I am not really a multi punter in terms of it being a predominant way of punting. For instance, I won on 2 of our picks last week, missed on the other 1 and missed on the multi (as we all did) So I prefer it when there is value on offer on any of the picks. But that's just me
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A Day at the Races
My tips are generally 3.00 or better ...in a multi Nature Strip is a good pick but really only for multi punters. The shorties are no-brainers but if we're happy with 10 -1 up to a 15-1 collect then maybe we should just put forward the no-brainers.
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AFLX Revamped
Not a fan? Can you point me towards anyone that is a fan rjay? It almost goes without saying (the not a fan bit) But these sorts of ventures often end up with some sort of fan base ... don't ask me how but it could come under the 10% rule.
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A Day at the Races
One of the better days racing on the calendar Wadda Any number of short-priced favourites though ... same deal for the first half of the card at Rosehill. A total of 10 favourites at prohibitive odds or not much better. My strategy will be to include the shorties into exactas but hope that that the better value horses can pip the shorties. They won't all win and in fact maybe 5 of the 10 won't salute. Which ones? Anyone's guess!
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AFLX Revamped
Oddly enough what you've just said is probably true ET. And AFLX is galvanising otherwise sworn enemies on 'land. A peace has transcended over the place.
- Monkey Business
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Monkey Business
NBA, MLB with a bit of SuperRugby & Soccer are my preferred options Wadda. Even International Rugby. I'm no good at Footy or Rugby league. Soccer is hit and miss but if Man City, Juventus, PSG or Barca offer up decent enough odds for a +2.5 Match Score, I may go down that path. Probably just those 4 teams though. Dortmund at home maybe as a 5th option? Ajax are another option but the odds for the Dutch giant are often quite prohibitive. Finding 1 standout baseball winner out of the 15 games that are played daily shouldn't be too tricky either (season starts in early April) Good teams on home field and a distinct pitching advantage are what I look for. But I'm usually looking at 3 or 4 for a multi so finding 1 shouldn't be too difficult. As you said, there's enough there to keep the thread ticking over and it's a good thing to refine sports & teams too. I like the idea of the multi involving multiple sports too ... my own multi's needs a mix too although I've done ok with 3pick NBA multi's of late.
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Monkey Business
It's how one responds to a loss ... that's all that really matters Wadda. Whether playing, as a spectator, involved somehow or even when punting. Soccer can be notoriously difficult sometimes as the scoreline often doesn't reflect the actual game. For that reason I may switch to the NBA for my pick ... that was my immediate reaction when I saw the Napoli/Torino scoreline on Monday morning. No chance of a nil-nil with the Warriors, Celtics, Rockets and a few others! (esp with those teams at home)
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Monkey Business
An example of my own version of 'Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind' (good movie) is that I have zero intention of ever watching the Prelim final from last year. It has been eradicated and I made that decision at half time of that game. Goodwin can and could use the game as a teaching tool though. But as a supporter, I am not interested.