Macca

The best value is often with the very good team vs very good team at home ... in any sport really. The good teams tend to do well away from home against average or poor opposition. So I felt more comfortable with the Juve pick rather than the Gunners pick. Plus, Juve with Ronaldo are way more potent now in terms of goal-scoring opportunities. Everton was a good pick DZ ... they are a decent team talent-wise and will probably finish top 8 again as they normally do.

If one was to look at a block of picks over a long period of time in that 10-20 range you'll find that a large percentage of those picks become busts. And most if not all of the top 20 picks are standout juniors. The later picks is where Taylor can also show his real worth as a recruiter (over time) Or, he may have a rare gift. But with recruiting, that rare gift is often a bit of a ruse ... it comes and goes. (Wells at Geelong & Brisbane's Scott Clayton) With Taylor, it's so far, so good! We're riding a good horse but we haven't rounded the home turn yet. The list is by no means complete. We need 20 top players ... not 22 best 22 players.

Yes, from adversity comes opportunity. Turning a negative into a positive and all that. We can look at it another way ... we are selling an asset that creates collateral which can be spent on other investments.

In a number of overseas sports 1-2 years to go in a contract doesn't deter a player (or the players manager) from shopping themselves around (privately)and nor does 1-2 years deter another club from approaching that player. It is why certain top players often end up being tied up to long term deals ... those long term deals not only satisfies the player involved but satisfies the club as they then are placed in a position of strength. Once the length of a contract extends beyond 2 years the thinking changes. We're really only talking about the top players here. For instance, there is a chance that Jesse's management was approached quite some time ago. Same for Scully etc. A long term deal keeps the wolves at the door. To be honest, I was more than a bit concerned when Jesse only re-signed a short-term deal back when his contract was extended. And I suspect a number of others felt the same way.

West Ham have rallied! 12th! Always nice to get a big scalp too ... Man Utd have got some issues though. Pogba taken off in the 70th minute.

Well done DZ ... I'm looking forward to tomorrow as well. Lots of stories from today though ... Shoals & Santa Ana Lane for the 'Everest' - lookout! 'In Her Time' a big chance too. Nature Strip out of the Everest ... 2 slots open now with 2 weeks to go - Viddora? Home of the Brave? Chautauqua officially retired - hope we get to see the horse again ... Clerk-of-the-Course? Hartnell was brilliant carrying top weight in the Epsom Ace High back in business - Wadda will be happy. Oohood finally breaks through in startling fashion - it's a good horse. The 'Metropolitan' really was a bit of a lottery but 'Patrick Erin' might be able to go on to bigger things Collingwood lost.

Market forces value the picks so even if the picks are over-valued as I believe they are, arguing for more is a futile exercise as market forces rules. Real estate works in a similar way. In a way, it ends up being fair-for-all as there is a consistent view that ends up reflecting the market forces. An example of that is that if Lever & Hogan end up both being very good players for their entire career's then we've neither won nor lost when equating both deals together. But from my point of view I want more for Hogan regardless of what the market forces dictated. With Lever, I was happy with that as I believed we paid unders (based on my view that picks are overvalued) I suppose one deal evens out the other? I reckon the landscape will change in 5 - 10 years when the true value of picks is better evaluated. 'Busts' cannot continue to be ignored as if they shouldn't happen.

Ha ha ha ha ha! It couldn't have happened to a better bunch of mugs! And yeah, my hatred of anything black & white runs deep.

I included Oohood but just missed the trifecta DZ - had 4th but not 3rd. Can not complain at all though because I have had a good day ... just snagged another trifecta with Hartnell winning the Epsom in fine style. Track record again for Hartnell - broke 01:33 for the mile but the track is playing fast. But Hartnell was carrying top weight so it was a magnificent performance.

Oohood finally breaks through and wins the Flight Stakes ... now set for the Caulfield Guineas to take on the colts. With $2Million up for grabs why not? Apparently there is a GF going on elsewhere ... care factor zero ?

Well I put my money where my mouth was with Santa Ana Lane & Shoals and picked up the First4 - you little ripper! These small fields can still deliver decent dividends. Less than a 3rd of the dividend but I will take that any day! Plus we got Shoals up for the place with another best bet saluting. That result will throw a cat amongst the pigeons with regards to the Everest - Santa Ana Lane smashed the track record and had the rails all the way ... Shoals might have been the run of the race though.

@Wadda We Sing will be doing cartwheels in Copenhagen. 'Ace High' wins the Group 2 Hill Stakes and is now right on track for the Cups. I had 'Egg Tart' going in a trifecta so got a collect from one of our best bets. Loomed up but out-sprinted to the line by Ace High. 'It's Somewhat' ran on well and that horse might be making a return to form.

Ha ha! No mate, missed that one. Up at Randwick the Metropolitan is a very tricky race and is wide-open. I reckon the dividends for the exotics will be very high regardless of the outcome. Need a lot of luck with that one, less so with the Epsom where it's a lot more clear-cut.

And before long it will be 2 years out as it is in all the major sports all over the world. We're just catching up here in Oz but people are the same all over. As inevitable as night following day Free agency opened up the thinking Those rallying against change are wasting their time. The club's best strategy is to bypass the 'If you can't beat them, join them' angle and to get to the forefront of change. I reckon that's what we're actually doing but we're not being very loud about it.

Well, we are going to be busy in the off-season, aren't we? Not sure anyone was predicting so many changes to the primary list ... and being a major player in the first round of the draft is suddenly on the radar. Thankfully, It looks like we won't lose any more than 1 of our top players so we could describe the changes as a major rebuild of our depth with hopefully a few diamonds in the rough emerging.

Ha ha! The Cups will be a tipsters nightmare if half or even a 3rd of the 2 fields are made up of Overseas horses. Most of which will be having their first start in Australia in those 2 races. The overseas form is there to try and comprehend but you've probably got to go by the ratings and then trust those ratings. Not easy, not easy at all. Doesn't bother me that much as I don't really up the ante in the Cups races ... I much prefer the Group races at WFA, Set Weights or Set Weights + Penalties. The staying races have never really been my go layz but everyone's different.

Can we assume you don't want any GF updates Wadda? ha ha I'll be watching the feature races from Randwick 'live' ... I'd prefer an Eagles win because the Pies fans that I know and come across will be unbearable for years if they win an unexpected flag. At least the Eagles fans are out-of-towners ... I barely ever come across an Eagles fan in my neck of the woods. They are as scarce as GWS supporters.

A couple from the Kaiser Chiefs ...

It sure did ... very disappointing was 'Trap For Fools' DZ. Never really looked like it. As disappointing as Nature Strip in the Moir St. Hard to see it running out the 1200m in the Everest but of course, the horse is entitled to run a bad race so I may be speaking too soon. Weir just mentioned that the horse might even be a doubtful starter in the Everest - end of the campaign earlier than expected? Viddora scorched them though ... might be a chance for the final slot in the Everest now. Brave Smash was flying too - the extra 200m will suit that horse hands down.

Moir Stakes is up next in 10 minutes ... I got a few collects early Wadda including a percentage of the early quaddie so reasonably well in front with an interest in the last 2 races. Chautauqua failed to jump so that is probably the end but maybe not ... WA racing might invite the horse for the Winterbottom Group 1 - wouldn't surprise me anyway. But I always believe that all things are a possibility. DK Weir sounded very confident about 'Nature Strip's' chances - well drawn and he reckons it should be running 2nd after settling - outside the leader (which I reckon could easily be 'Ball of Muscle' or maybe Houtzen) 'Friday Night at the Valley' is a nice add-on to 'A Day at the Races' ... there's probably a couple of decent feature races most nights so that suits me.

Ah well, Chautauqua has had a magnificent career. He'll have a nice retirement and the horse might even be used as a clerk-of-the-course horse down the track - there's an idea. Unless they keep trying to get the horse to run. Maybe Honkers?

C'mon Chautauqua! Jump!

Ha! Are you laying odds Clint? Apparently the horse arrived at the course and is displaying a calm manner ... whatever that means, who knows?

And now 'I Am A Star greets the judge ... very impressive. Wasn't even going to have a bet in the first 2 races but have picked up a trifecta & a F4. Smallish dividends but I'll take the wins. Plus, I'm alive in the quaddie. Your multi bet is looking good @Dee Zephyr ... I've got both of your choices going as well so here's hoping.

Ended up taking an early quaddie @Dee Zephyr which is unusual for me but Sunset Watch gets the first leg up. I've included 2 of your 3 remaining choices as well as a couple of spec chances. I've targeted races 3, 5, 6 & 7 for some trifecta action. The Valley is good Friday night entertainment with the footy over & done with.