Demon Dynasty

As we all know, the AFL have their favs both club and player wise. Unfortunately for too long we haven't been one of them and we continually cop the short end of the stick....and seem to accept it more often than not. How does a club that rarely pushes back with appeals or stand up for it's players in glaring examples of injustice such as the ANB one (and there's been others eg ; this from 2010 to an ex R.I.P. https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.theage.com.au/sport/afl/no-charge-after-kennedy-breaks-colin-sylvias-jaw-20100315-q9bw.html ) then expect that its players (in general) will do the opposite and stand up and fight for the jumper? ANB was always going to be outed but to roll over and accept 4 weeks then cop the SHIZENHaus decision without a yelp?

Bedford putting pressure on for one of those spots is very healthy imv. Don't believe we need or should play all three for the sake of a medium. May the best two small forwards keep playing in blocks of 3 to 4 matches. They stay if they can perform to a minimum level. If they don't or one doesn't during that block then Bedford comes in. Rinse repeat till we find out who can really bring it and wants it. What i would do though is bring Harmes off HB to play more mid field time in a run with this week to cover Steele. Effectively replacing Sparrow. Rivers comes in to take over Harmes' role at HB. Viney plays more time forward. Between Viney, Harmes, Tracc, Clarry and AVB, we should be able to cover one of the medium forward roles of either Fritta or Melk. To me this week that's Fritta. Again some pressure needed. Bit of a rocket to let them know their place isn't as secure as they may think and to work on some weaknesses, particularly the pressure side. Also sends Melk a bit of a subtle signal as well that he needs to up the ante pressure wise inside 50.

Agree the article is a nonsense article if it is suggesting Jones in or out is the solution to our forward pressure woes. His inclusion might go some way towards helping (and even the amount here is probably minute given his lack of run down speed...in fact almost everyone who plays forward is ahead of him here including Hannan 3rd, Kozzie 2nd, LJ, Fritta, Harley etc). Even backmen, Tomlinson, Harmes and Ed average more tackles i50 than Jones. To suggest the lack of pressure difference was Hannan v Jones is complete garbage. In fact Hannan (usually) brings a greater level of pressure here than Jones (if his role is to play mostly HF vs say a part time winger). But it does highlight an issue and that is aside from Hunt (ranked 1st for average tackles inside 50 this season and 10th in the AFL overall), Kozzie (2nd & 41st. Not bad for a first year player but a damning outcome on the rest of the seniors up forward imv, particularly Melk and Fritta), Hannan & ANB (both equal 3rd & 49th/AFL) we start to drop away from there. Mind you there are other ways to pressure up forward other than tackling but that's the only statistical indicator we have at present as a recorded gauge other than trolling through a stack of replays to look for pressure acts, spoils & smothers. Let's look at some of those top ranked tacklers i50. Hunt, might be No.1 for us but he's terribly out of form and not getting a game. If he does get one who knows, it might be a role up the ground. In other words he's having zero input at this point. Kozzie at No.2 Great effort from the 1st year rookie but you can't just hang your hat on this as a small forward. Sure he does get involved and does some other good work including bringing others into scoring opportunities but at some stage he also needs to start hitting the scoreboard on a regular basis. I have confidence he will but the question is how far away is that and we shouldn't have to rely solely on a rookie to make the difference. Hannan & AVB. Both can't stay in the team for more than a few weeks and when they do they may bring a degree of forward pressure but both also lack the ability to bring a consistently acceptable level of impact on game day. Some days they'll hit the mark, others they go missing. Let's face it, aside from Kozzie, the crew that presently run through that forward line just don't inspire in terms of worrying the opposition backs with consistent pressure. It's no wonder the dogs waltzed out of our 50 with ease on Saturday. So what's the solution? Honestly i just don't think there's a feasible one in terms of ins/outs on this present list. We can ask for greater efforts from some of our mids like Clarry & Tracc who are already bringing it a little. Then there's Gus who brings only a little. Spargo up and down can surely find something this week. So that's some extra potential oomph from those four. There are three other options, one of which we've used a little but certainly not enough so far imv. Seemed to work against the Pies. Bring Jack into a mostly HF role (not mostly against the Pies but did appear to play more game time forward from what i witnessed vs the Doggies match) which allows Harmes to play a part time mid field role also pushing forward and bringing pressure. Rivers comes in for Harmes for Fritta or Melk (neither of those two pressure much at all up forward, especially Melk). I'm thinking Fritta at this point given Melk at least kicks accurately with his limited opportunities. Brown comes in for T-Mac to see if he can make a difference as a 2nd KF and part time relief ruckman. He might also bring a tad more forward pressure than T-Mac at this point.

There's a whole week to prepare for this one and we have an extra day's rest HF. They are also coming off a much bigger challenge than us imv playing a top of the table team in the Lions. We are presented with a rare opportunity, in the current format. In addition the blue print for smashing them was set by Scott a few weeks ago. While we are certainly not the Cats, i'd be getting hold of as much analysis of the Cats demolition of the Saints as possible. Along with help from Richo (surely some inside player value he can add here), the game day analyst (do we have one anymore?) and line coaches etc, i'd be dissecting that from front to back and every which way. Obviously allowing for our own strengths / tweaks given each player's strengths/weaknesses and points of difference. Opportunity knocks!

He might be on pro $$ but he's far from a pro coach yet imo HFF. Saturday will be the turning point imv as he has no excuses with injuries to save his bacon this season and we are very unlikely to make the eight if we lose that one. It's a must win. When he has us playing finals on a regular basis (ie., say this season and next) then we can call him a pro. At this point he's a fair way off it imv and still learning the ropes as he goes (hopefully). And as for that last bit, by extension you are calling yourself out also. Welcome aboard mate!

It's not forever PJ and it's not every match but when needed, of course he should. Not Tracc, who should be pushing forward for short stints anyway. Viney's your man playing more time forward for Harmes.

I can see the light Norm! Let's hope he gets the opp this week.

Certainly didn't take it as that Buck. Your feedback / input always valued. No harm in posing the questions and having a healthy debate / discussion. I'm also always looking to fine tune regardless, at least where/when i can see a pattern of anomaly arising and i think it was warranted here.

Agreed re Sam having a somewhat better match vs the other two when watching the game. The weighted score does capture this (just) with Kozzie but not with Spargo (just). As pointed out by BN, statistically things can come out slightly differently vs what actually occurs on match day in terms of the importance of a player's disposal / involvement / output and effect on the result. Often it can be little things that don't even get picked up ie., some stats are either dubious or the publicly available ones don't / can't capture all of the nuances that we see take place. Nonetheless, i have to agree with these two assessments and it could (probably was) the weakness of the model itself. Taking a look at the penalty imposed for turnovers that goes in to the final weighted scores. I've backed it off, marginally, and this may be the tonic needed without changing the core basis of the model nor the rest of the pecking order in a significant way. Hey nobody's perfect and there's always room for improvement so thanks for the constructive scrutiny fellas. The new weighted ratings table, including the above minor tweak, below. Player Score Rank Clayton Oliver 3.800 1 Steven May 3.525 2 Angus Brayshaw 3.400 3 Jake Lever 3.250 4 Christian Salem 3.200 5 Adam Tomlinson 3.125 6 Ed Langdon 2.875 7 Christian Petracca 2.600 8 Jack Viney 2.575 9 James Harmes 2.325 10 Michael Hibberd 2.025 11 Jake Melksham 1.650 12 Braydon Preuss # 1.550 13 Sam Weideman 1.500 14 Charlie Spargo 1.375 15 Kysaiah Pickett 1.300 16 Tom McDonald # 1.175 17 Tom Sparrow 1.150 18 Mitchell Hannan 1.100 19 Jay Lockhart 1.075 20 Aaron Vandenberg 0.850 21 Bayley Fritsch 0.775 22 Team Score 46.200 Top 6 20.300 Bottom 6 6.125 # Hit outs to advantage not captured Stats courtesy of footywire.com

I reckon both!

Reading this at work. My brain doesn't handle such sensibility this early in the morning. Stop it AF...just stop it. Why would you want to play a player in his strongest position on the ground where he's performed admirably on many occasions over his career so far? And have him kick the odd goal while he's at it! Beggars belief. Pfft i dunno....some of you D'landers! I mean seriously, you want to actually start winning matches on a regular basis huh? Don't know what's up with everyone here lately. Bloody Covid chaos. That's the only feasible explanation.

You know we don't do minor injuries Pates....it's 4-6 (ie., of unknown length / term) or nadda!

I hear you AF but to me Tom just doesn't have the legs / run any more to play that role. And he can't play ruck rover all day nor should he be going anywhere near the opp's goals. So where do you play him for the remainder of the year? I just don't see him being able to cover the two way running required in that area of the ground. Could be wrong though.

Dazzle that's a big no for mine....for reasons such as that mentioned by AF. One of the most awkward ugly bits of play i've seen from a backman for a while. Possibly since this one. Ok not quite but you get my drift. I just wouldn't put him anywhere near the opp's goals from here. Could we see a miracle turnaround? Who knows.... it wasn't that long ago he was scoring on a regular basis in some matches. Personally i agree with AF. Isolate him in the square and get the Weid to play the CHF role as he's younger and more mobile than Tommy obviously. See the year out. Go all out on Cameron with a lucrative trade deal if we can?

No Worries BN. Just can't seem to take that step up to the next level above the shoulders eh. They have some talent and decent players but far too often just fail to show up on match day once the opposition up the ante a little. Some of those kicks yesterday, into the man on the mark multiple occasions and kicking scrubbers to the opp on others. Fritta's inexplicable non-tackle on English costing us a goal. Fritta playing on and kicking it to "someone" who just wasn't even an option or may have even been running away from him towards goal with back turned (i think), ball turned over and ends up in their forward line (can't recall if they scored or not). Gus did something similar at one point. No poise when needed, too many brain farts. Amature hour stuff. Smacks of a team that just isn't hungry enough right across the board and/or just can't handle AFL level pressure (with a few notable exceptions in general and on the day). Too little left to too few far too often to take the next step also. We are capable against the sub par clubs / teams but don't cut it so well against anyone from about 10th place upwards. Really feel for blokes like Maxy, Clarry and Tracc. Even May and Hibb this season, who give it their all most weeks but are continually let down by blokes who just can't seem to go (or maybe couldn't be bothered going) to the next level. Then there's the coach & FD. I'm sure they're getting alot right but i'm just not sure they're capable of getting the best out of this group. After 3.5 seasons we keep getting beaten by teams who are fairly fast in general (but that's what AFL brings now and has for decades!) using a game style that sees them spread with skills / leg speed away from congestion and just hungrier for longer far too easily far too often. And when are we going to learn that when we're on a good thing you stick with it!?? ie., Viney plays less time in the middle, more time forward bringing Gus into more mid field time? Worked beautifully the week before. But no, let's go back to Viney this week and stuff the whole balance / system up...and this is not the first time! How many times have we thought we are on to a good set up / balance since SG started only to see it thrown out again a few weeks later....back to our awful type once again. Then there's AVB & Sparrow on a wing. Now i love ANB and certainly not expecting much from Sparrow given he's a rookie but come on. We have to be better than this in a place on the park where you need mobile marking options with run and carry ability. Not throwing the baby out just yet but it's very very close and i reckon this week is this group's final chance (under SG) to turn a corner and make a fist of it coming into finals in a strong way. Lose this one and the spotlight's really gonna be on the Coach and FD as well as a bunch of players that just aren't able to cut the mustard.

There's an old saying Dockett which i'm sure you've heard plenty of times.... "When the going gets tough.....

Rnd 13, 2020 Metricon - Dogs vs Demons Team score, allowing for this season's 20% less game time, was 8% off the 2019 season average and 18% lower than 2018's. Clarry tops the statistical tables again with May not far behind. Fritta down the other end for the first time this season punished somewhat by his turnovers exceeding effective possessions. AVB not far behind and has been sitting at or near the bottom since his return against the Crows. His best result 19th against the Roos in Rnd 11. Turnover kings today were Viney with a whopping 9 followed by Tracc with 7. On the up side Viney lead the score involvements with 6, closely followed by Melk, Clarry, Pruess and the Weid with 5 a piece. As a side note Tomlinson had 14 effectives today at 100% efficiency with zero turnovers. Not too shabby. Lever topped the intercepts with 12, Harmes the next best with 7. Player Score Rank Clayton Oliver 3.750 1 Steven May 3.425 2 Angus Brayshaw 3.200 3 Jake Lever 3.150 4 Adam Tomlinson 3.125 5 Christian Salem 3.050 6 Ed Langdon 2.725 7 Christian Petracca 2.250 8 James Harmes 2.225 9 Jack Viney 2.125 10 Michael Hibberd 1.725 11 Jake Melksham 1.600 12 Braydon Preuss # 1.450 13 Charlie Spargo 1.375 14 Sam Weideman 1.300 15 Kysaiah Pickett 1.250 16 Tom Sparrow 1.150 17 Mitchell Hannan 1.000 18 Tom McDonald # 0.975 19 Jay Lockhart 0.925 20 Aaron Vandenberg 0.600 21 Bayley Fritsch 0.525 22 Team Score 42.900 Top 6 19.700 Bottom 6 5.175 # Hit outs to advantage not captured Stats courtesy of footywire.com

If Harmes has had a great season then i'm Uncle's monkey.

He potentially brings class and finish though something that Baker probably doesn't have at this early stage. I'd roll the dice and give him a 3 match minimum run and see what he can bring (if he's fit enough to run out a full game that is).

Bennell, if fit, should be in this week and if he is fit i would leave him in for the remainder of the season and see what he can bring. There's nothing to lose and everything to gain here. Vanders could do with a rest. He's played his part for now. Time to see what Harley can bring.

My best guess is Goody is a "set and forget" coach who appears to believe that if you overwhelm your opponent with heavy contested ball winners and win the ball with numbers at the contest then everything else will look after itself. The trouble is when you don't win this area (say the opp evens up the contested / clearances or gets close, or even worse wins it) then that template has failed at the first hurdle. Add to that some terrible execution when you do win it and zero pressure on their HBs in transition, and you have yourself the continual recipe for failure against anyone capable of bringing those two factors (for long enough). St Kilda will do exactly the same and unless Goody brings a different look, we'll get exactly the same outcome.

Yet another bizzaro Goody experiment that shows no signs of ending Dazzle. What a complete and utter fail. Rivers in for Harmes. Harmes takes over from Sparrow in the middle, pushing forward at times. Simples.

Which is why he should be played (mostly) as a forward. At least the scoreboard will be turning over. That he still tries to ram his way through so many contests is a habit that won't be broken at this late stage. Use him where he's better suited. The coach can't work this one out (and Harmes) 12 rounds in and 3.5 seasons later?

You can still play man on man for stints when the opp gets a run on and/or when you want to make every contest a contest at stoppages and the drop. I'm watching the Hawks do it right now and they have just drawn level with top of the table Power in this match by doing just that at 3/4 time! No one gave them a chance yet it's this game style that's got them into a winning position against all odds. This club is poorly coached, managed and allows decent opp to take the game away from it far too easily and far too often without a yelp.

Wrong TU. It's not personal he just doesn't bring a game that's anywhere near the level we paid and are continuing to pay imo. He is a good intercept mark as i've said on many occasions but a very limited footballer with ball in hand.