binman

I hadn't seen that but have backed it. I think i may have posted this before but Sportsbet have a seemingly standing offer of the first four races money back up to $50 if your horse finished 2-4. It always syd and melb but changes for the third venue. The week it is Morphetville so really getting each way with Music bay in a small field. I've done the form for Randwick with the thought it will suit horses on the speed and and sitting 2-3 of the fence (so favouring horses from barriers 8-13). It is one reason i also really like Hiyaam.

Morning punters. Apologies for not putting up my best etc last couple of weeks. Have been flat out Sat mornings. Coincided with a scratchy couple of weeks for me on the punt so i can assure you did not miss much, though my value runner last week was Houtzen (which was just about my only winner). Another tough day in sydney. But big fields mean good vale so fingers crossed. So here are my tips, all at Randwick Best bet: Race 2 no 2 Isaurian Best value: Race 8 no 10 Aloft Best longshot: Race 6 n no 10 She’s a Treasure Good luck on what is really the last day of Autumn for me save a couple of races i like in Morphetville in the next couple of weeks.

If tyson is over his illness in time for next game the selection will say a bit about whether or not tyson is seen as best 22 (for example if it was oliver rhete would be no question of him coming straight back in, regardless of the form of his replacement)

They should put old fashioned sky lights in!

Yes. Its called getting older and stronger. He is a kid still. Like lever he has just tuened 22. Brown is taller, older and stronger. Of course he is going to get out muscled sometimes by seasoned kpfs like brown At least he is not being out muscled by small forwards like menzel or debutants. Shoved is a good word actually. He was outmarked twice, with one being a blatant push in the back.

A shocker? Seriously? Didn't you say at one stage you did some scouting for afl clubs? And your assessment of Tmac's game is that he had a shocker? Perhaps you went to tge Gary Lyon school of scouting. I would urge you to consider not giving up your day job. A shocker? Gold.

wtf

I was thinking the same drunkn. I live in alrona so werribee farly close. The ground looks terrific after rhe upgrade. I have always liked the ground, sitting just by the river amongst tgevriver gums. Not sure if i can swing it though

Saty was there no doubt. Can't imagine the club not telling him abour the session and where it was. Particularly if he asked them.

That's because he has changed it.

No. It is part of the match day experience. They let more people in than there are seats and let peoplw fight for spots. Robbo makes funny comments and it is shown on the big screens.

So typical of so many so called experts who are ex players. Often clueless and their lack of research and work is evident. Even more embarrassing for lyon given he was discussing his team. In the states few experts in sports media are ex players and actually know what they they are talking about.

Perhaps he needs to explain.

I think this about confidence ds. Once he feels as if he is not playing for his spot each week i think he'll really flourish and become much more if an attacking weapon. I think lever's form is also related to confidence and for him also weight of expectation. He'll be the star we are all hoping for soon enough and will also be attacking weapon from the hb. When you factor in hibberd, who is our best weapon from hb you start to see what the fd are trying to build down back. Agressive intercept players, who read the ball well and ate penetrating kicks who can also hit difficult targets though the corridor. Combined with players who can lock down critical opposition forwards, big and small. Quick transition from hb has never been more critical. When it all clicks, as it will soon, it will be pretty exciting.

I've always rated him. He is just so fierce at thw ball and ball carrier and reas the play super well. As i noted before round 1 he is every chance of cementing his spot and if he does (which he almost has) his confidence will grow and we will see a big improvement in his kicking. I think his kicking will become a real weapon. Another example of a player that many fans don't see how good they are/will be that the coaching staff clearly rate as evidenced by the fact they are regularly selected.

Yeah you're right swans are ouliers in this regard and hawks still using precision kicking and controlling rge tempo as a strategy (but do they have the players for this?). Interesting that swans are also the only club (not sure about hawks) who don't use a zone defence.

Surely though that is usually a function of a out number?

It's like Deeeluded met Deeeluded. And had two baby Deeludeds.

I don't think that is true anymore. Richmond won the flag by getting it in to their (short) forward line as quickly as possible, trapping it in there and failing that making it super hard for the opposition to get past the press. We are trying to the same thing. he hawks from 5 years ago were playing the game you describe but really no team does any more. Teams now move the ball laterally behind their defensive 50 arc (as opposed to their offensive 50 metre arc) and when they get the space flood forward in a wave and try to get over the opposition' press. Which is why you see so many goals 'out the back' these days.

Of couse bookies get it wrong. Though they make their profits by being less wrong than the mug punters. i didnt say your prediction waa incorrect. i said the market suggests it isnt. The art of punting - and rhw only way to makw money ovee time - is accurately assessing the odds of something happening and if the market has that event at longer odds taking those odds. So, as a punter, if i thought a game was 50-50 but could get 2.20 foe on the teams i would take that bet. Odds are most certainly not bs in terms of being accurate predictors od the results of football games. And as i said rhe pools so big that the impact factors such as media hype or one eyed supporters is negligible. Do you really think the dees started fav against geelong because of one eyed supporters? The bookies actually opened us at 2.20 just prior to our second jlt game. We played well, geelong not so well and the market tightened. But we only became favourite when it was announced danger would't play. We started at 1.85, so only very slight favourites. And we missed a goal from 20 metres dead in front after only xonceding 17 points in rhe secind half and dominating the last. I think the odds were pretty accurate.

If your assessment of a 50-50 is correct then hawks at 2.20 is brilliant value. However the market suggests your assessment is not correct, hence why we are 1.70. The pools for footy betting are way too big to be overly influenced by hype in the media. Hype in the media might influence tipping but the odds are initially set by bookies who'se key expertise in this regard is getting the odds right. Punters then respond to that assessment and shape the ensuing odds by betting their hard earned money. Not much room for media hype to be a big factor (or sentiment fir that matter).

It would reduce pressure no doubt, particulalry near the end of quarters but i for one love the pressure and are happy where things are at atm. I really enjoy watching footy as it is now. Well Melbourne at least

Funny. The bookies have us at 1.70 favorites. Sure not 9 out 10 but clear favorites nonetheless. So not so bizarre a fan forum of demons fans would think we will win well.

Agree. Add in gawn and our mid field is way better. It is one reason why i am confident of a relatively comfortable win.

Good thread. Annoys me how with the endless footy talk in the media how little analysis of stats and strategy there is