binman

Omac dropped. I didn't see that coming. I got it wrong on him not being dropped this year. He'll be back soon enough. Probably come in as an emergency this week.

Lewis is slow as a wet week. Won't help our issue with spread and speed.

Yep. A big part of that improvement is related to increased fitness. The 9 day break could not have come at a better time. A combination of being able to recover from the last game, having a block of time to build some fitness post recovery, and lewis and jets back a bit fresh means we will be in our best shape fitness wise this year. They are coming of a six day break from what was a taxing, physical game. Huge disadvantage. I'd be jacked off if I was a saints fan. Poor scheduling by the AFL but for once it helps us.

How do i know that? Because that is how book makers operate. And I have been punter all my adult life (and a chunk of my non adult life). They set a market. The punter with your million responds to that market. If the bet is on the mfc they become even shorter than the bookies opened them. If on the saints their odds shorten. How else could it operate? As an example barely a cent will have been bet on the tigers dees game. No serious punters would punt on tbat game. Way too many variables at this stage, not least injury, weather and how both teams perform this round. The bookies have Tigers as favorite at this stage. We are unlikely to start favorites but if we play well this round and the tigers don't punters will back us and our price will shorten.

True. Sort off. The bookies set the initial price. this is tru of all betting markets. The punters then impact that price up or down depending on the money they punt. The bookies had as favorites asin thier considered assesmsnt (based on not wanting to lose money) they think we will win.

100% agree. I enjoy watching him but as you say he is a poor kick. In our match against them just gone I was happy when he had the ball because there was a very good chance he would turn it over. As he did at a crucial time in the last (and a couple of other times). Commentators loved him but his direct opponent kicked. 2.1. More goals than buddy and Reid combined.

I have an idea. My insane over confidence. Believe me the start of this year has cured me of that!

This is complete rubbish. All of it Capped off with an ironic insult that stands in direct contradiction to your first line. Perhaps I'm missing something and it is one of your attempts at 'ironic' satire? Either way rubbish.

Good post, with some well argued points. On the 1% average his ranking this year certainly reflects the fact we both agree on that he has been down on last years's form Bearing that out is that league wide he ranked 7th in Total One Percenters in 2018 and 8th in Total One Percenters in 2017. On the point of goody not having other options I reckon that's a bit of a furphy. If he really didn't think he was up to it he would find an option, eg tmac back and keilty forward or petty in

I didn't say he played well. I said: 'Omac has not had a great start to the season but was ok on Friday. Not great, ok. His opponent for much of the game had one mark inside 50 for the game and a solitary point. And had the equal high number of one per-centers with Hore (who played one more quarter than Omac). He did his job'. As for one per centers i would respectfully suggest that given your 'token one per-centres' (sic) comment that perhaps you are unaware what they actually measure. As per Champion data they measure tackles, spoils and shepherds. All fundamental defensive skills - in particular spoils . And the best defenders score high in one per centers - Rance being the king. And Omac is by far and away our highest one percenter scorer. So again with all due respect i think you don't really get why a coach (that most on this site seem to respect) picks him week in and week out - and in that you are well and truly not alone on this site. The reason Goody picks him is he does his job. Simple. Take Thursday night - Reid was his opponent for much of the time and he was ineffectual. As for being more courageous in the air again you are not alone in your seeming blind spot to his courage. Omac cannot be questioned for his courage. Exhibit A is how is how he he ended up getting concussed in the Swans game. Go to the replay and watch the contest at the end if the third quarter (4.36 to go). And then tell me he isn't 'courageous in the air' or doesn't 'throw himself at some contests'. Omac is pretty slow. He also sometimes gets out bodied (but given he is only 23 that is no shock). But the fact is that Goodwin, a coach most on this site seem to rate and one the club has seen fit to extend his contract - picks Omac each and every week. For two full seasons. And continues to do so in his third season as coach. Leaving aside the frankly asinine suggestion that a professional AFL coach has favorites and would risk success for some weird reason such as stubbornness what does that tell you? I'm not sure about you but it tells me that Omac is doing the job the coach is asking him to do. So he continues to select him. Which is way good enough for me. You are right - Omac isn't looking particularly confident at the moment. He is one of the many players who post season surgery and i expect that has impacted his preparation. . As Goody and other people from the club have pointed out, our all team defensive pressure in the first 3 rounds was woeful so that also makes it hard for defenders. And the entire back six has struggled (not helped by Mays lack of discipline and poor physical preparation i might add). But I expect Omac will soon get back to the his best and have little doubt he will continue to be selected. And again i'm happy to back the judgement of a coach who I rate as perhaps the best we have had in the many years i have followed the dees. Others can please themselves and no doubt will.

Bobbing!

Hadn't checked the other best bets before posting, but was going to pick dubhe too Macca. Unusually for me I've done my selection At randwick based on a swoopers track. I just think randwick struggles to come up week to week, particularly after rain, and the track will be hard to lead on. Two races in and seems to be the right play with horses getting home from tbe rear. Makes for a tough tough day with value winners

Last getting day of the Autumn for me fellas. My best is Tonsor at eagle farm. Race 9 no 7. Shooting for 4 in a row and will get the chockies

No it didn't. A classic a case of confirmation bias at work That incident occurred half way though the second. Oscar was concussed late in the 3rd quarter (4.36 to go) in a huge spoil that repelled a Sydney inside 50. In the intervening period betwen the buddy incident and when he got concussed we played our best footy of the match, kicking of 8 of 10 goals. And in that period Oscar worked super hard and his gut running was big factor in creating that web zone Sydney struggled so badly to penetrate. Omac has not had a great start to the season but was ok on Friday. Not great, ok. His opponent for much of the game had one mark inside 50 for the game and a solitary point. And had the equal high number of one per-centers with Hore (who played one more quarter than Omac). He did his job.

Strange comment for a fella who has worked in tv. He us clueless about who most people are. He has a producer piping directions and instructions direct into his ear

He absolutely did his job. Sure he made his share of errors - but so did every other MFC player (my god there were some shocking turnovers in that first half, just appalling stuff) but he played a good game and i'm sure Goody agrees. I would not be surprised if Goody gives him a coaches vote (to be clear i'm not saying he will).

I told yous all that buddy is our bunny!

I'm surprised melk has not got more love. Very influential i thought

Unusually complimentary jb. Particularly given how poor we were for the first quarter and a half. Must be a manifestation of the relief of winning! A bit tough on melk. I thought he was a critical factor in us getting back into the game and then maintain our lead. Kicking - turnovers kill us

Exactly right. Drives me nuts dl posters and so called footy experts in the media saying we need to go man on man. Goody has his model. We made a prelim with it. We will stick with it. When it works teams struggle, like the swans tonight, to get it passed half way. We strangle them. Relies on but running and that is what we saw tonight

Same same. Not once in the many, many years i have followed the dees. Actually once. But not because were losing. We actually won the game. I had to leave the dees v saints round one game from a few years back at Docklands because i had an event i had to attend.

He's our bunny

You forgot Jack watts.

Source?

He has what we need.