binman

Based on tbe bookies odds for the next two games and my estimate of the likely odds in the remaining games, the odds of us winning our remaining 6 home and away games is a tick over 9-1.

If the pies do beat Port, and go 2-2 against the other top 4 sides, It us worth noting that both their wins are against Port. Whereas we have beaten the pies and the lions, and the lions the pies and us.

Right. As funny as the loading jokes are, I wasn't making a case a factor in the crows form is fatgue - though I believe that to be the case (i watched the whole gws game and it was crystal clear halfway thru the third they were out of gas - and they basically stopped to a walk in the last. They had a 17 point lead at 3 quarter time and were always going to get reeled in - they lost by 14, meaning a 5 goal turnaround, and could only manage 1 scoring shot, a point, to the giants' seven scoring shots). I was making the point that an article that discusses their drop in form that doesn't at least ask the question if fatgue from loading might be a factor is doing crows fans a disservice. Particularly when Burgess is their fitness guy. I mean c'mon. You have at least had the opportunity to consider if fatigue from loading is a factor because of the discussion on here. And you have decided it isnt. Which is your prerogative. But surely if you were a crows fans you'd like to get a sense of the possible causes of their drop off. The closest that article comes to positing any theories of the cause is 'the declining form of Rankine and the undisciplined actions of Rachele' and noting Tex didn't get a touch in the second half of the gws game. Otherwise it is just a typical shopping list of stats that point to the symptoms not the cause. Maybe you are right, and the issue is simply that the Crows are not that good, their talent is young or very old and that fluctuates. Maybe, despite the fact you could see with your eyes they were gassed and the clear parallels to the impact of loading on the dees under Burgess and his acolyte,Selwyn Griffith (eg accuracy drop, scoring drop, losing games when fav etc etc) you are right and fatigue from loading is not a factor. But surely it is worth including the possibility it might be so readers can decide for themselves and perhaps do what you have done and reject the idea loading is a factor. Or perhaps think, gee that's interesting - I'll give that some thought Otherwise it is not even in the conversation.

id be happy with a draw

Did you watch the gws crows game?

I agree with all that - but i was actually making a gag

"Suddenly, the Crows are not the inside 50 marking team that they were in the first half of the year, they are losing more 1v1 contests and have lost their accurate touch in front of goal" Mmm, i wonder what might explain their drop off? Struggling with 'connection issues', scoring dropping off, losing one on ones, their elite accuracy strangely gone? Not sure why, but that all sounds very familiar. In all seriousness, this article makes my point about why it is so ridiculous the footy media don't factor in fatigue into their analysis of where teams are at, PARTICULARLY when trying to explain a seemingly unexpected, difficult to understand, sudden drop off in form and scoring power. If the author of that article had at least included the possibility fatigue from loading might be a contributing factor in their form drop off, at least Crows fans (and anyone else for that matter) could choose to consider and/or reject that idea. And for pete's sake, their head of fitness is Burgess and the dees had exactly the same drop off when he was our fitness guy, so it hardly takes much of leap of journalistic logic to at least speculate about fatigue and loading.

From the article: "Demons legend Garry Lyon has conceded he thinks its “unlikely” Brodie Grundy will remain at the club next year after he’s fallen out of favour in his preferred No. 1 ruck position..... Given the nature of Gundy’s exit from Collingwood, former Magpies coach Nathan Buckley suggested the dual All-Australian would have his head around the nature of the business. “One thing that we know is Brodie Grundy is not under any illustrations about how cutthroat and professional this game is,” Buckley told On the Couch." I think they are drawing the wrong conclusions

Weather starts getting nicer. Finals come into view. The dees start rolling as the final act of the season commences. Oh and the spring racing season is close. My favorite time of year. A new spring ritual has been added since 2021 - the ladder prediction tool on the AFL website (basically the only useful thing on that whole god forsaken site). And post the win on Friday night i have put it to work. The most common scenario I land on is the same first week finals as above, ie the top four in order is Pies, Port, Lions and the Dees, Even if Power beat the Pies this week, with the percentage buffer the Pies have it is hard to see them not finishing top and Port second. If Port do beat the Pies they will have almost locked in second place. But if they lose to the Pies, suddenly the derby the following week against the Crows is huge because the following week they play the Cats at Kardinia park. Including their loss against the blues, it is not inconceivable they could drop four games in succession. If that were to transpire and we win our remaining six games and the lions win 5 of their 6 games (the loss being to the Pies at Marvel - a game they have g odd shot of wining i think), Port, the Lions and the dees would all finish on 68 points. But the Dees and Lion would raffle second and third position because both teams' percentage is way better than Ports. in that scenario, Port play Pies week one at the G. And the dees would play the Lions at the Gabba or the G depending on percentage. The Lions can score heavily, but only have one game against a relative easy beat, Freo in round 9 - and that game is a home game for Freo. But we have two games against teams in the bottom third of the ladder - the Roos and Hawks. Those two games might end up being critical in terms deciding second and third place on percentage and therefore, in the scenario where Port drop the next 3 games (and we win our remaining games and lions win 5 of 6), if we play week one at the G or at the Gabba. In the scenario Port lose to Pies, beat Crows, lose to Cats but then win their remaining games (which is more probable than them losing to the Crows), and we win all six remaining games and lions go 5 of six, Port finish second and the Lions and dees raffle third on percentage. I think we will eclipse the Lions' percentage, so finishing third and playing Port in Adelaide week one is a real possibility. My preference is we finish fourth and play the Pies week one at the G. Snuff out the Pies mania and i have a better chance of being able to attend the game.

It's only a 50 minute drive isn't it?

Fortunately for dees fans, his confident prediction a few weeks back that freo would take our spot in the top four is unlikely to prove accurate.

If we get get pick 6, I hope we also get pick 66. Then it will picks 6 66. The number of the beast. With a stutter.

The Slab?

I am entertained.

As goody said in his presser, as much as the media want black and white, they don't need to make that decision yet. Goody has made clear he happy to keep the forward line fluid, pushing back on yet another click bait media narrative that we should have it locked in now. He's also made clear he sees Grundy in his best 22 come finals. They've flagged grundy will be at Casey for at least a couple of weeks. Jvr can have some time in the ones, with bb. Maxy can concentrate on his game. Maybe even manage him at some point, for example swap with brodie for the roos game. See what things look like in a few weeks. It's about the big dance, not the tigers in July. But on jvr v Grundy come finals, Goody makes a good point about big men in finals. And i think we saw on Friday night that JVR still got some development to go, both in terms of his build and strength, but also his tank and forward craft.

As long as it isn't holy grail. The Slab? It'd make a great footy song.

I agree with that. His athleticism looks really good. I more meant he looks like he is still building his tank as he has faded in the second half in the last couple of games.

Posted just now Further to the post above the Lions got on top in the second dominated the second and really dominated the third quarter Yes they were still switching in the third quarter, but the quarter was a more 'traditional' looking quarter, with the lions taking control, forcing more contests and stoppages (which is how the lions like it). And we struggled to get our run and carry game going the way we did in the first and last quarters. So more congestion and less space. I think that is reflected in the pressure ratings of both the dees and the lions in the third (boith teams' highest rating quarters) and provides some evidence for my theory about the pressure numbers in the game being related to how the lions played and how we responded to their method: Quarter For Against 1 169 158 2 150 164 3 181 207 4 174 192 Match 168 180 It's interesting that the Lions pressure was still really good in the last quarter (and better than us for the match). Yes they ran out of legs a little bit bit, but they didn't wilt. And maybe when defensive late by dropping Gunston back (but i think that was the right play to be honest), but i don't think they went into their shells and tried to save the game the way many are suggesting. I just think we controlled the tempo of the game (fast and ball in motion) in the last quarter and they couldn't wrest back momentum or get control of the tempo they way they did in the third quarter. As Fagan said, they just couldn't get their hands on the ball

Go redlegs

Agree. Still looks a little underdone, but if he can get up to full rat power he will be an even more critical cog in the machine. The other thing about BB, with his height and forward smarts, opponents can't really risk putting part time or medium defender on him, meaning they have to send one of their best tall defenders to him.

Excellent point jnr. A real upside of Oliver's injury is the extra minutes and responsibility JJ and sparrow have got in the middle. Also means when Oliver does come back JJ and Sparrow are in great nick. Can only help at the pointy end - and creates options for Goody. For example, if they run a hard tag on Oliver, he can sacrifice his game and drag the tag away from the contest, or go forward if need be, and JJ and Sparrow can pick up the slack. And as we have seen already, also gives Goody much more flexibility in how he uses tracc in terms of his mid forward mix (by the by, hard not to love tracc as as a forward - in part because i love his emotion when he kicks goals. It really pumped up the energy of the crowd on Frida night).

I love this.

Me too.

That's an interesting question, one I've been pondering since i saw that data yesterday and was also reflecting on after the blues game. Was planning on raising on the podcast (we discussed this a bit after the blues game). My initial thoughts is that i think a factor in the low pressure numbers in this game, and the blues game, relates to how both of those teams played - and how we responded to their method. Comparing the Lions game with the Pies King's Birthday game, both games felt high pressure watching, but perhaps on Friday night more in the sense that it was a tense, enthralling contest between two genuine contenders that finished in high drama? But what were the differences in how the Pies and the Lions (and the blues) played and how we responded. And how might that impact the pressure numbers. These were the pressure numbers from the Pies game: Q1: 176 - 180 Q2: 174 - 172 Q3: 201 - 206 Q4: 186 - 177 Tot: 183 - 186 The big difference in the way the two games were played is the Pies played their game against us and ran at us they way they like to do - chaining handballs until they find an outside kicker in space to take on a high risk kick to the corridor. We responded to that method by denying them time and space by: having our defensive zone set high to create density take the corridor away from them and force them down the line really getting up in their grill as the Pies went forward with frontal pressure (ie dees players ahead of the ball peeling of their man and running at the ball carrier) Sweating on their mids and flankers sitting on the outside waiting for the ball to be fed out From wheelo def, pressure points for players are the weighed sum of pressure acts. I assume the same true is of the team's pressure ratings (i also assume the teams' ratings is the players ratings aggregated?) Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. The way we responded to the Pies method by denying them time and space ticks all the above boxes in terms of how pressure points are accumulated. But against the Lions and the Blues we didn't press up nearly as aggressively or apply the same level of pressure frontal pressure. And out zone wasn't set as high. The Lions came with a plan to use the width of the G to move our defensive zone around, i think to pull Lever and may apart to minimize their intercepting ability and to expose them one on one. To that end, they switched more than any team against us since perhaps the first half of last season. We let them do so, and never really pressed up. The blues did something similar, but more i think because they couldn't get through our zone going in straight line. And now that i think about it, the saints also did something similar and tried to control possession of the ball - and the pressure numbers were low in that match too. So, with the ball getting switched side to side, fewer opportunities to aggregate pressure points because there is less corralling, closing acts and chasing acts. And less contests. And added to that we went fast in the first and last quarters, with the ball in motion and lots of wave running that creates space around the and ahead of the ball. Very much how the Pies love to play. But unlike us against the Pies, the Lions didn't really look to deny us space, for example by pressing up or frontal pressure - which meant fewer pressure acts like corralling, closing acts and chasing. So, to your question about my analysis of the ‘pressure ratings’, i think they are really useful indicator as evidenced by the fact clubs use them during games (which surprised me), but like any stat only tell part of the tale. I've been looking at them all season, and my overall impression is, as a rule they pass the eye test in the sense they reflect my sense of the pressure in the game. That was not necessarily the case in the blues and Lions games - or for that matter the Saints games - in the sense those games didn't feel low pressure as such. That said the pressure numbers in those games do point to the strategies of switching and denying us the ball (though its not then really possible, unless you have intently watch the games, to compare say the lions game with a run in the mill actual low pressure game).

And it was a super contested, tough game. Bit of recovery needed for the crows. One less day break and travel doesn't help their cause either.