binman

Great point. I reckon we'll know 10 mins in where we are at. If we are moving it quick we will def look to score quickly and put the lions on the back foot from the get go. When on, we really look to put score board pressure. A point of discussion the dees have over our key rivals is our ability to make it hard for the opposition to score AND pile on goals quickly. That's a big reason why are always in games.

First para under the first headline (author: Buckley): The dees were too good for the lions, but with the lions' record at the are still big question mark in my mind about their ability to beat the top 2 sides.

Agree with all of the above. I don't think he'll come back in for the crows game though. The work on his forward craft stuff gives them cover so not being selected for the crows is not made an issue by the media. And the crows leg speed will trouble us, so one less tall makes sense. Also gives brodie a decent chop out - no game this week and managed minutes playing as a pure forward (so no being smashed in the ruck) next week. Back in against the plodding tigers.

And then there is the whole Alanis morrisette ascribing the wrong meaning to irony thing.

Exactly. Far from putting a question mark on brodie's place in the team, going back to work on his forward craft reinforces their commitment to the two ruck, resting forward model. I actually think it is as much a comment on Maxy's forward craft in the sense that to maximise his strengths he has to play more ruck time coz he is average up forward. The same could be said of brodie, but maxy is the big dog. And a better player, so it makes sense to have him playing his optimal role.

Or risked being scored against on the counter. We didn't have the run in the legs for fast play in the last quarter and the oppp cant score if they dont have the ball, so tempo footy was smart. But if I'm right, we might well look to put the lions to the sword if we get 2-3 goals up.

It absolutely will be. But, one I think we are a better team with a superior method, particularly defensively. And two, we match up really well against them and despite them winning the last two games we have had the wood on them under goody (and even in the loss in the finals, our advantages over them were evident in the first half, before we ran out of gas). The other factor is, whilst both teams are coming off six day breaks, they have to travel and we dont.

Disagree. My take is, much like the Pies match, this is a target game for us. Meaning we will have freshened up, and even with a six day break, will be running over the ground better than we have since the Pies game. There are only three other contenders, the Lions are one of them. Beat them on the g to create more doubt in their heads about their chances come finals And on top of that there is real enmity between the two teams. I don't think this group of dees players will ever forgive or forget the sledging of Petty by Zorko. And then there is the fact they beat us in the finals last year. We will be looking to make a statement. I'm predicting it will be high scoring game, with us doing most of it. And unlike the Pies game, i think we will be looking to push the pace, go fast on transition from the back half, and be more daring with our ball movement, with more use of the corridor and aggressive lane changes. Against the Pies it made perfect sense to play slow, protect the corridor and force them down the line because doing so blunted their advantages over us - their leg speed and kicking skills. But we match up much better against the Lions because their strengths are contested ball and stoppages, and we more than match them in both areas. In fact we smash them in contested possessions. We are AFL #1 for CP (just ahead of the Saints)and they are mid table (AFL #10), barely above league average. The last thing we want is a low scoring maul because that plays into the Lions' strengths and mitigates their key weakness. Very much opposite to the Pies, the Lions' biggest weakness is their lack of leg speed, which i think is the reason they struggle at the G. I think we will look to exploit that weakness with fast ball movement, keeping the ball in motion and if sufficiently fresh, running in waves to create free plays ahead of the ball and inside 50. I suspect one of the drivers of brodie's (who is not quick at the best of times and looked like he had concrete in his boots against the saints) omission is looking to inject more speed and run. Last year's round 15 mauling of the Lions (37 scoring shots to 18!) will be the template. A key will be stopping Andrews intercepting as he is as important to them as May and Lever in terms of connecting defence and offence. The other key will limiting the impact of their medium forwards - Cameron, McCarthy, Raynor, and when he pushes forward Bailey. Dunkley is not at Oliver's level, but a case could be made for Dunkley being at least as important to the Lions as Oliver is to us. So i think Dunkley not getting up is massive. Dees by 43 points. By the by, contradicting my confidence, the Lions have continued to shorten in the betting and the game is now close to a 50 50 toss up betting wise (we are 1.85 and they are 1.92).

It's the gift that keeps giving - every second match has some bearing on the ride! Like the freo circle of death

Go get goulden dees.

Blimey, how good is the bont.

So I guess he gets a good rest then.

Fair call. Ever was over the top.

Fair point MB. It's true to say my starting point is to defend the players. But perhaps you're right and i was too dismissive of the concerns about Kozzie's form. Four possessions is a pretty poor output regardless of his role. I find how they're managing him quite interesting. He has struggled mid season every year so far, and to my eye look like he needs a chop out this year in the same way other young players like Chandler, JVR, Bowey and Spargo clearly did. But unlike those players they haven't sent him back to Casey. He has played high time on ground in this period - i think it was 95% against the Giants, so perhaps playing senior footy is better for Koz in terms of getting the required load into him. The other thing i factor in is i don't think there is any debate that Goody's number one priority is to win the flag and that all his selection decisions are informed by that goal. And there is little debate Goody places a huge emphasis on players carrying out instructions and playing their assigned role. Goody is not going to select any player who is not performing their assigned role over multiple weeks, so the fact he continues to select Koz suggests to me he is ok with how he is travelling.

All good points. But with the pies, why the confidence they will continue their form till the end if the season (I'm assuming you mean to the gf?)? Tbey didn't ladt year, losing two of their three finals and bowing out in the prelim

That's almost exactly what Scott said last year- tgough he said they were prepared to miss the 8 to give the cats the best chance of winning the flag. The big change to last year's program is replicating the cats squad approach and managing mutiple best 22 players like jvr, bowey, bb, Hibbo, chandler, grundy and spargo (something we didn't do hardly at all last year)

Ok. But essentially that is exactly what Selwyn Griffiths said in the DL interview podcast way back in March that i have referenced multiple times.

I'm not doing that all luci. I could not agree more that there are a myriad of other possibilities behind individual club decisions/team performance. I have not ONCE argued otherwise. And to be frank, I'm wholly sick of the inference that i have (not you, generally). And please, the idea I subscribe to some loading 'dogma' or 'reverse engineer' to fit my narrative is both inaccurate and insulting. And this is good case in point. Sure, you and others might be right and they are trialing a single ruck set up. But what is the evidence that supports that opinion? My opinion is he is being managed becuase he is fatigued (for whatever reason) and needs a break, just as has been the case for other best 22 players in Hibbo, Chanlder, Spargo and JVR. And there is plenty of evidence that supports that supposition: The club has publicly said it will take time for brodie to get back to optimal fitness. He is clearly struggling at the moment - he looks tired. The club has flagged via the media as much and implied, but not yet said (i don't think) he is being managed - are they lying if they come and out and say he is being managed? Goody publicly stated he would take more a squad mentality this season. And he has done so. Resting Brodie fits with that approach As far as i am aware there has not been one comment from the club suggesting any movement away from the two ruck set up being the optimal set up - on the contrary there are multiple recent examples of the club affirming the two ruck model It is not dogma. It is logic. Apply Occams razor to he set of facts at hand and Brodie being managed becuase he needs a chop out is the most probable scenario.

Not sure about more important than Oliver (though you could certainly argue Neale is) - but Dunkley has been a critical player for them this season in terms of his ability to connect the inside ball winner's with outside runners (like Oliver and Neale, he does both thing super well) and therefore their ability to transition the ball and create scoring chains. And whilst he doesn't have eclectic speed, he is quick enough and certainly not a plodder in the Rich mold - which helps mitigate their pace issue (which, in my opinion, is the main reason why they struggle at the G) An excellent trade. I really hope he is not playing.

Ok. But i still don't understand the relevance of the fact the Cats won whilst managing players and we haven't? Or the relevance of your supposition that the Cats would not have rested anyone prior to a top 4 clash had they needed to win to keep a buffer on their top 4 spot I mean, i assume you accept the fact the Cats took a squad mentality, and true to his word preseason, Goody is doing the same this season. Are you arguing that Grundy is not being managed?

And your point is?

Spot on.

I would characterize it as it being fatigued, not unfit. Posters were screaming this time last last year for Goody to take a squad mentality and freshen up players when needed. And that is exactly what Goody is doing this season - not that he is getting much credit for doing so. It is important to remember that fitness is iterative - Grundy missed a huge part of the 2022 season. And as as the club said preseason, has work to do to get back to his optimal aerobic levels. With Maxy's injury, Grundy has done a power of work this season, and probably more work than they had planned for when designing his individual program. So it makes perfect sense that he might need a chop out right about now. If he does need a chop out (just as was the case for Hibbo a few week back, and JVR, Chandler and Spargs more recently),it is smart by the club to manage Grundy. In my opinion, there is zero chance Grundy is not in our best 22 and if not in this week, will be back in soon enough and 100% will be in our finals team. Book mark it.

Again, fascinating on a number of levels The pattern of aggregated player across the 2021, 2022 and this season certainly supports my hypothesis that the arc of a season can be thought of as three acts or phases. And that those phases are related to fatigue (ie logic suggests the performance of players is strongly correlated with fatigue). It is interesting you should post this data actually. In 2021, around this middle part of the season i was trying to make the case that loading, and therefore fatigue was a significant factor in our drop off in form. One of the things i pointed to as evidence was exactly this (well not exactly, i did not have the brilliant charts) - a significant drop off in the collective player rankings (there was some article about this - like always pointing the symptom not the diagnosis - that's to say making the argument that our drop off in form was because our players ratings had fell away BUT not trying to explore why that might be the case. Cause and effect and all that). I also recall using that same data to support my argument for how critical nibbler was (and remains for that matter) to the team. In that middle phase of the season, the ONLY two best 22 dees players whose player ratings didn't drop below their average were Nibbler and Hunt. I say critical because our game is based around all team defense, which is 100% reliant on ALL players working super hard to block outlets, cover oppo players, spread and get up and down the ground all match. Fatigue makes that very difficult, hence we get opened up more. And lose games we otherwise would win. So any player who can continue to cover the ground close to their optimal level is gold. I suspect nibblers ratings didn't drop below his average last year or this year either, or if it did, only marginally. Terrific evidence of nibblers incredible fitness, leadership and work ethic. This season we have clearly tried to use tempo again (which we didn't really last year after about round 12) - and also a higher zone press (which is new)- to mitigate the impact of fatigue on our all team defence. The last quarter against the saints was the perfect example of this strategy.