binman

All good points. I predicted a damp squib for these finals, with the lions tigers game being the only close one. Could not have been more wrong. The pressure the swans and pies brought is almost like a new style. I mean pressure is fundamental to finals footy obviously, but the pressure both teams bring to disrupt exit from stoppages is something different. Curiously both teams had significantly less contested possessions than their opponents - the swans minus 25 and pies minus 21. On our sytem, I can't get my head around why we have changed it so much. I had expected us to go hard and fast against the swans, which we did. We didn't get ant score board seperation in the first half, so cam out and played fast in the third. But we never tried to control the tempo, which is a key part of our system. Well, it used to be. Yes, that was in large part due to the smart way the swans stopped us doing so, for example by tagging langdon and Salem (who we use a lot to control tempo) and denying us time and space. But we also fed into the pace of the game by going for high risk kicks into the corridor. Made more high risk by gawn and may trying them - and giving up three goals in doing so. So weird for us to be play such high risk, high reward footy. And we paid the price we normally make other teams pay. I don't know what the numbers were at games end, but at half time I think I saw on the scoreboard we had scored maybe one goal from turnover and they had scored 4 or 5. Such a perplexing game tactically. Yes, a big part of that was the great tactical work by the swans, but nonetheless we contributed to the tactical weirdness.

It looked terrible live. Poor bugger was in absolute agony. On the slo mo replay tou could almost see it happen. I hate to see players get injured like that.

I reckon maxy was also carrying.g something. I was in the Olympic stand and at one point in, I think, the third, maxy was running directly toward me as the ball headed to the boundar line. His running action was so awkward and said to my mate that he had done his hammy. He obviously hadn't, because he stayed on, but something was not right with his movement.

Sure, but trac gave us zero run

Maybe. But he was heavily limping for ages. I watched him for while with my binos and he can barely move at one point. Surely there's a point at which the coach over rules the player?

Seriously? He was moving like a cripple in the second half. I was gob smacked, and remain so, that Goody didn't bring Smith on for him. I mean, what the point of having a medi sub if you don't use it when needed? We were basically down a player for a big chunk of the match. We really needed the run Smith and energy would have contributed. Totally baffling.

I thought it was gastro?

Agree with all of the baove. But i'd add that the biggest stuff up was lynch bot splitting the center with that kick. I mean that was total gimme.

Jordon must recover quickly from surgery

That is approximately how i think the game will go - i've predicted a 47 point win. No, its not last year. We are better this year. Delusional? Nup. Or if it is, there are a lot of punters who share the delusion, given bookies are only offering for $4.25 for a 40 point plus win. That price is about right i reckon, given we are a far better team and close finals, particularly in the first week of finals, are quite uncommon - in part because once a game is decided (ie one team has an unassailable lead), the losing team often folds in elimination finals as the realization hits they are finished for the year, or in the case of Qualifying finals they conserve energy for their semi. By way of example, the margins in the finals last year were: QF 2 - Dees hammered the lions by 33 QF 1 - Port hammered cats by 43 points EF1 - the dogs smashed the bombers by 49 points (after scores were all but level at half time) EF2 - the one close game, with the giants beating the swans by a point Semi 1 - Cats beat giants by 38 Semi 2 - dogs beat the lions in a thriller by a point PF 1 - Dees [censored] the cats by 73 points PF 2 - dogs smash port by 71 points GF - Dees smash dogs by 74 points So, nine finals with only two close games and seven hidings.

Coach's run

Not goody

I stopped drinking at the beginning of COVID to lose some weight. And haven't picked it back up again, so i'm a bit out of the loop on bars (i've discovered they are not as much fun sober). But i'd recommended the Duke of Wellington on the corner of Flinders and Russell. Back in the day it was owned by Brian 'Whale' Roberts the ex tigers player, and was a classic old school footy pub. It has been completely done up, and now looks super trendy - and seems to be packed all the time. To be honest, I've not been there since its make over, but i've heard it's a pretty cool (youngish) vibe, the food is good and lots of TVs with sport on them. Great spot, particularly if you are coming into the city before gong to the footy. Twenty minute stroll to the ground post drinks. https://dukeofwellington.com.au/

I think it is safe to assume Salem will come in Bowey would be stiff to be dropped, thought arguably not as stiff as JJ was, but he is the logical player to come out.

If Bedford makes zero sense as a sub why has he, as you point out, been a sub in 12 games? I like Smith as a sub because of his athleticism and versatility. Not keen on Dunstan or Tomo as subs as neither are versatile or athletic enough

Bedford makes more sense as a sub than bowey. As you note, he's been a sub multiple times, which can only help as it must be tricky to be in the right headspace when you don't know when, or even if, you might come on. And the fact he has the experience of coming on as sub and performing well is important too. But the key factor is Toby is more versatile in terms of the positions he could cover. He has experience playing as a small forward, as a nibbler style half forward and also as a mid (his main role at Casey). Whereas i think i'm right in saying Bowey has only played at HB in the ones and at Casey.

My other tip is for the first week of the finals to be a damp squib, with just the one close game - the tigers v lions match. Here's how i see the firts two games playing out; Tigers v Lions: A brutal game. Lions to come out hard and fast and get a jump on the tigers, much like their previous match. The tigers to work hard to get the 'game back on their terms'. Lions to ride the Gabba train home though and win by 13 points. Key questions: how fit are Dusty (assuming he's picked) and Lynch? If not 100%, then the tigers might run into the don't play half fit players in finals wall how do the lions rebound from the shellacking we gave them Dees v Swans: Dees to swarm and surge from the get go, play fast, look to get a match winning lead by half time, and then slow the tempo in the second half. Much will depend on how accurate we are in the first half. If we take our chances, the game will be done and dusted half way through the second quarter. Swans to struggle to transition the ball due to our pressure and swarming all team defence. Our pressure forces lots of turnovers, and scores from turnovers generate most of our scoring (as opposed to last week, where unusually scores from back half were big for us). Dees to win by 47 points. Key questions: what tactical rabbits will Longmire pull out of his strategy hat, and how effective will any such moves be? how big a factor will the home crowd be?

You are not angry. Just very disappointed.

Here's my prediction:

A good article on key players for each finalist. AFL finals: From Jeremy Cameron to Tom Liberatore, the keys to all sides in September

I listened to it last night - brilliant stuff. It made me laugh, and think of George, to hear Ian talk about the fact we didn't follow the lead of other teams in the mid 60s and create a social club as being a big factor in our decline (because we forfeited the revenue a social club brought to other clubs, hurting us directly, but also comparatively). Sixty years later and we still don't have a social club! Its not as important now, though, given that the income stream form a social club would be drop in the ocean of what is required to fund an AFL team. However it is totally relevant to the discussion of a home training base, as as Munro noted social clubs were integrated into clubs home grounds. He hgave the example of the Hawks buying land next to Glenferrie Oval to build their social club. And in a different context he gave the example of the Saints electing to move away from Junction oval to Moorabbin. The context was getting away from the St Kilda Cricket Club vis a vis our relationship with the MCC, but moving to Moorabbin allowed the Saints to create their own social club. I was too young in the 70s to be gong to social clubs, but for those with more wisdom than me, were we the only VFL club without a social club?

Not suggesting he'd be a straight swap for De Koning, but the blues might be good fit for Tomo. They need some key defenders and realistically Tomo is going to struggle to get into our back six. The blues looked like they are tying to implement the goal keeper system we use and given Tomo has played in our defensive system, and in the gola keeper role too, he'd help the blues implement that system.

Massive. Only bont out would hurt their chances more given how important to their game plan libba is. There is bit of irony this year with the bye. A key reason it was brought in was to ensure all finals teams are as fresh as possible week on, and that players with niggles or injuries have another week to get up. But this year two big stars in Fyfe and Libba got injured at training and will miss maybe all the finals

Yeah, I can see what you're saying. I think papley is probably easier to run a defender tiight on than heeney as his position is more a traditional small forward role and he stays inside tbe 50 metre arc more (or did - heeney is playing more forward of late) And in the last few games we have done so ie had a defender stick with papley. But you're right, shutting heeney out would go a long way to stopping them scoring, and hibbo would have the strength to go with him.

Excellent points. I was just thinking today (after reading the comments from Swans supporters on the 'what are they saying' thread) that I'm sometimes guilty of forgetting that in Maxy, Oliver and Trac we don't just have three of the ten best players in the AFL, we have three of the best players of their generation, and arguably already 3 of the best dees to EVER play the game. Add players with the talent of Gus, May, Lever, Salem and Viney, not to mention youngsters like Kozzie and Jackson and its hard to argue that this team is not one of the most talented lists in the modern era. How lucky are we that get to enjoy this current team. Wow. I bang on about our method and systems a lot; but this list is going to make any game plan look pretty damn good. Really, pound for pound, not another list comes close. I'm also probably underestimating how fundamental that level of talent is to making our system work, and without such talent perhaps it is not feasible to implement our model fully. That said we have recruited with the model in mind, not the other way around as the cats have done, and have targeted players who can win their own ball and have the discipline to play their assigned role.