bing181

Yes. We're also an inconsistent middle of the road side, which is what seems to frustrate people here the most. Helped along today by a really poor first quarter (for whatever reason) coupled with some structural imbalances that they were able to exploit, in particular having two big talls who were able to play/float forward, and losing Hogan which left us improvising up forward. We had 8 more I50's, but still lost by three goals - but when the two H's, Hannon and Harmes manage just 10 kicks, 1 mark, and 1 goal between them ... it was never going to work.

I think Adelaide will win, and fairly comfortably. They have a couple of their stars out, but they're not top of the table on the back of just 2 players. Maybe the margin might come back a bit in the last quarter, but they're tuning up for a tilt at the premiership, and hard to see them just going through the motions.

There were also plenty that were horrible in terms of DE where it's not reflected in the stats.

Yes, but the big one missing there is Hunt. He consistently misses targets, and not just by a little. Agree with many of the previous comments about attack on the ball and players going missing, how could anyone not. But the biggest shortcoming for me is not being able to hit targets. It's what's behind our poor inside 50 conversion figures. We're getting the ball in there, but either they're just bombs, or we're not hitting up the forwards.

I'd be pleasantly surprised if we win. Yes, we're on top, but we've been leaking goals out the back all day. They've managed 3 goals a quarter for the last two, and no reason to think they won't do the same this one. I can see us getting 5 or so, but can't see us keeping them to 1 or 2 goals.

If Jayden Hunt could hit a target inside 50, we'd be unstoppable.

Hogan out. Tom MacD forward?

No point thinking about finals if we're going to play like this. We'd get blown out of the water first week. In reality, we haven't played well for 6 weeks or so, and it'll eventually find us out.

Or just kick the footy. Or even handball. His speed and dash looks great, but at the end of the day, he's arguably the worst disposer we have. Ineffective.

Hard to understand why they're playing like this. Just can't get going. When even players like Hibberd look off the pace you know something is wrong.

A few things in life are inevitable, but this isn't one. Hindsight Bias.

Hard to see what or who we can trade at this level. The Lever deal would clean us out of our first round pick plus plus plus.

Frost not even in emergencies.

"but I thought his second half, he had a big impact in the game."

If someone had said at the beginning of the year that we'd lose Hogan and Gawn for half the season, plus other leading players for long stretches, most of us would have been happy with being around the mark of last year. Instead, we already have 12 wins, including wins away and against top teams, and will probably play finals. Success, whatever happens this weekend.

Or RV (with Robin Williams).

Daniel Kahneman got a Nobel Prize for this back in 2002, the split between the experiencing self and the remembering self.

Not sure if that's as much down to Tyson as it's down to how good the opposition mids are. In any case, Tyson was 4th in our B&F last year, and will be around that mark this year and isn't about to be dropped.

Agree we need to beat the Pies, and agree, it could easily swing against us - but the calculation is more complicated than that - though it needs someone more articulate about maths than me to elaborate further. But largely, it depends on how high/low scoring a match it is, and how high/low the total points scored for the season are.

And just to add: - Dusty is currently ranked first in the league for a) clangers and b) turnovers - Dusty wasn't getting the kind of performance figures he's getting now when he was Tyson's age or with Tyson's no. of matches. These are coalface players. It gets messy.

You would hope so, but he was poor the last few matches he played, closing speed or not. Apparently played well at Casey, so hopefully he has his mojo back. He's still a heart-in-mouth player with ball in hand though.

And what did you omit? 14 contested possessions, only just behind Beams and Oliver, and ahead of 41 other players out there today. Confirmation bias in action.

You don't know that. He could just as easily have given away 3 or 4 goals through turnovers. People have got to stop running this film of "what might have happened" in their heads as if it's reality - and then arguing from that as if it did.

The last game Frost played he was nowhere near it, regardless of his height and pace.

Great win, and great to win, especially under the circumstances. But against better sides, the poor disposals of some of our players will find us out. Amongst them, Jayden Hunt isn't so much a turnover merchant, it's just that half the time you wonder even what he was intending. And not sure what's going on with Stretch. Has a reputation as a smart footballer, puts together a string of really good perfs. in the VFL, but then looks uncertain and hesitant every time he gets a game. Perhaps it's a confidence issue. Selection will be interesting next week, especially given that in theory we should have virtually our entire list to choose from. Viney, Watts, Salem in?