DeeSpencer

If we pick him at 9 it’s fine. I doubt it will happen but if we use 5 he’ll be ok and I will too. Vanilla can be ok. But people have lost their minds seeing things that just don’t exist.

I didn’t go to a single junior game live this year but I watched some of the champs and a few Coates league games. Yes, there’s things you get a better handle on live but if you watch enough you can piece together what the camera doesn’t show. There’s something like 20 different Jagga Smith games uploaded to YouTube with just about every possession and major moment recorded. I’m not cherry picking highlights or lowlights. My opinion is pretty simple: Strengths: game running+++, very good reading of the play Clean enough without perfect hands to gather the ball. Decent but not special evasive skills. Everything else is needs a lot of improvement and whilst he has the character and work ethic by all reports he’s also spent the year as a full time footballer giving him a significant advantage of those who had school (studies and footy). Kicking, speed, over head marking, aggression and natural flair are hard things to teach too.

We're crying out for quicker skilled mids who play less in straight lines but I don't see the pace or skill with Jagga and you have to take the game forward at AFL level or the ground shrinks and forward pressure just eats you up. If you're heading sideways out the back of stoppages you still have to get pace on the ball and make sure the run overlaps and dissects the oncoming pressure. Otherwise you're just making it someone elses problem. I've done this a few times for Jagga but I'll do it again. 0:05 - backwards handball to a stationary team mate 0:13 - missed kick 0:35 - nice hit up chip kick (FOS great lead) 0:46 - refuses to kick, wide handball 0:50 - nice handball (FOS gets too ambitious) 0:57 - nothing handball 1:04 - cleverly takes advantage when opponent stops, nice hit up 1:15 - fumble, nothing handball 1:25 - nice forward handball (to FOS) 1:35 - no aerial technique, free kick for a hold 1:42 - wins a clearance free running forward, does he stick the foot down and drive it deep? No, backwards handball to a winger 1:53 -because the ball has gone nowhere he's there for the 8m kick (ball should be inside 50). 2:01 -simple handball (good 1-2 from Yze) 2:08 - fumble, missed handball 2:15 - nothing kick 2:24 - keeps his feet in a tackle, nice dish off 2:31 - lazy hacked kick, deliberate 2:45 - nothing handball 2:50 - nothing handball 3:05 - risky but good handball but doesn't get there on the full 3:10 - lucky fumble 3:20 - great running, but kick doesn't have enough juice and gets spoiled 3:30 - well timed release handball 3:42 - complete junk handball to 3 opposition players 3:55 - finally some leg drive, but after staring down number 35 for an eternity he gives the handball without enough juice to hit the target on the full 4:17 - some actual evasion! And a quality goal 4:30 - good crumb, good release handball 4:45 - missed tackle 4:55 - fumble fumble, turnover 5:22 - nice clearance, picks a decent target but the 9 iron kick is very easy to spoil 5:43 - turnover 5:52 - missed kick 6:02 - short to a contest 6:05 - obvious handball but no shepherd 6:16 - burns the 1-2, burns the chance to run to the corridor, dribbles it to the gun along the boundary 6:25 - nice flip of the hips and handball 6:43 - 25m long kick (in fairness, was in to the breeze) 6:49 - goes free kick hunting when he has a handball option The goal was really nice and there's a couple of moments of good evasive skills. A couple. But his handballing isn't in remotely the same ball park of someone like a Murphy Reid. If it's not obvious he's rarely creative. And the majority of his kicking is either nothing flash or just poor, missing targets or hanging in the air. He's a high level game runner and reads the ball off the pack very well. Useful traits. But most AFL players are advanced in those areas and teams spend plenty of time working on their defensive running and work rate to cancel out mids who run hard. If you're a Sam Walsh level freak you can occasionally catch teams napping but the best teams in big moments aren't getting done by one paced free midfield runners. He's going to have to develop like Lachie Neale has - both physically and especially with his decision making around stoppages - because he just doesn't have the natural skills or speed to be damaging on the outside. Even when he overlaps runs he doesn't take full advantage. There's been a big rise of smaller mids this year and some of them - Neale, Serong - really make their living as inside mids. But most like Daicos, Gulden and Zach Merrett carve you up with speed and skills on the outside and I just don't see that with Jagga.

Richmond have been linked to Smillie, there's no way they'd offer us 6 and 23 for 5. If they wanted a second bite of the top group of mids they'd offer that to North for pick 2 and make sure they get the one they want.

Things Butters does: Candy selling and baulks Contested marking Changing the angle of his ball drop and kicks around his body Elite kicking vision High end burst pace Playing on in unpredictable ways the moment he gets the ball There's none of that in Jagga's game

Should be called the Supp list not the rookie list but build a bridge and get over it. Semantics

My guess is our draft board (minus academy etc) looks something like: Band 1- Lalor, (?FOS), Band 2 - Langford, Tauru Band 3 - in some order (?Smillie, Draper, Smith) Allan, Lindsay, Reid, Armstrong If Langford is gone we take Tauru knowing one of the mids will be there at 9. But Langford is plan A and Tauru going at 2 helps with that. Then it’s a matter of what we do at 9. If Langford and Tauru are both gone that’s when we perhaps get creative on how we get the best combination of our third band of players.

Butters comparisons have done the impossible and overtaken people using ‘moneyball’ in the wrong context as my most hated demonland phrase. Smith stays on the move at stoppages at a high level, but he’s almost always going sideways and backward. The few times he runs forward with the ball he gets chased down. It will take Jason Taylor zero seconds to not pick him at 5.

Or he’s a Logan Morris a plays in a flag in year 1, or a Cal Dear and has a great first year. Or a forward line Luke Jackson and is a key part of a premiership year 2. I get the doubts, but watch the tape, he moves completely differently to Weid. Safety has never been a JT factor at the top of the draft. You don’t take Oliver over Parish or draft LJ if you want safety. We also have the 2 picks. If Tauru goes to North and the Saints take at least one non mid we’re choosing the 4th best mid at 5 or the 6th best mid at 9. If they are all such good players then we’ll be fine doing that too!

October form guides: 2019: Jackson at 14, Pickett nowhere 2023: Windsor at 11 2021: Mac Andrew at 9 Twomey is an amalgamator of experts drip fed knowledge. He’s got way too many journo responsibilities during the afl season to be a proper expert. The best mids often identify themselves easily. The talls and special flankers are trickier to place. I think Tauru absolutely belongs towards the top and I’m warming to the idea Armstrong does too.

The only experts are the clubs who draft players in a few weeks time. There’s a few big time prospects right at the top but I feel very confident there’s not 6-8 must draft mids.

He’d be a fantastic pick 9 and a perfectly fine pick at 5. There’s way too much attachment to these midfielders.

Goal kicking: 7/10 don’t entirely love the technique but he has a routine and keeps it straight. Very side on and has moments when he loses distance, he might get the yips if it breaks down at times but generally reliable Marking: 5/10 elevates comfortably, drops more than he should but takes some nice ones too Presenting: 7/10 - does some high level stuff with seeking out the defender and protecting space. Not an innate skill for many young talls. Some nice leads too. Contesting: 6/10 - he’s not a pack crasher but he does fly for his marks and get hands on the footy. I think wanting bash and crash key forwards at 18 years old has been something our recruiters have overvalued. Athleticism: undisclosed/10: can’t find a 2km or 20m sprint. Incredible agility result and that comes through in his play. Really good at ground level inside 50. I can see the doubters saying his very similar to Jeffo but I think he has better mobility and a naturally bigger frame. Doesn’t clunk marks to the same level but he’s got similar traits to Petty (with a natural forwards mindset). There’d be an obvious appeal to have him take over from Petty by as soon as 2026.

There's your answer. Deakyn probably captain. Good get, should provide a lot of leadership off half back.

The danger is teams trading back up especially with the Saints double picks. Not too many teams that could do it but Sydney might have a crack with 19 and 22 and whatever else they can offer. And Richmond would surely think hard about 10 and 24. The ability for teams to trade up makes it very hard to get tricky on who you're picking.

Sideways and backwards

Only new intel there was Smillie to Richmond at 6. Nothing definitive on North. Still exploring other options to get a tall and possibly stay at 2 for a mid. And the Draper to Adelaide connection is far from proven.

Assuming the best 3 mids are gone I’m happy to take Armstrong at 5 if JT sees it that way. 9 would have to be a runner, but there’s more ways to find a runner with midfield potential than a pure mid.

Yep, Carlton might have a surprise in stall (I suspect they’ll consider Tauru if he’s available) but FOS is such a perfect fit for what they need.

FB: Disco Petty ??? HB: Bowey ??? McVee C: Windsor Rivers ???? HF: Chandler ???? ???? FF: Pickett JVR ???? Foll: ???? ???? Kolt Int: Sparrow, Spargo ???? ???? Maybe: Jeffo, Howes, Sharp, Woey etc To me, that’s the team we are drafting for. No doubt we hope Gawn, Viney, May, Lever, Tracc, Oliver, Salem, Langdon can all play on at a high level for years to come, but we are trying to fill gaps in our best 22, we’re trying to create the next wave.

I can see Lalor at 1, he has a combination of skills and power that is so rare. Tauru at 2, Adelaide getting spooked by go home factor and taking Draper at 4 is the very limited path to Langford at 5.

You don’t make list management decisions based on having Wade Derksen. You certainly don’t make them when you don’t even have him. That would be like choosing where to go for a fancy dinner based on possibly having some 2 minute noodles in the cupboard. Rivers is a mid now. Look at his B+F voting post midfield move. He’s ready for it. Theres some decent mids at the top of the draft but we have needs everywhere. No point adding Darcy Parish and Elijah Tsatas if there’s better players in other roles.

I don't think he's nearly as explosive as a Dusty/Tracc or as strong as even a young Cripps but I definitely agree on the footy IQ, that's a big reason why I think he can be versatile in more than just a mid/forward. The strong marks and nice kicks are great but I love this run from half back, mind you it's 4 on 1 so it's not exactly the worlds toughest decision making test but the way he fakes the handball then puts it perfectly out to space. Then caps it off by hustling and taking out the Vic Metro player. That's a combination of skills, smarts and selflessness that recruiters will love.

You're arguing different things here I think. Bob is asking about his overall attacking game being good enough to counter defensive speed issues. His ability to go forward is part of that but only one part. He looks natural jumping for marks and can present at the ball. It's a very nice string to the bow, but I'm not overly enamored with the idea of him spending too much time in the forward line (once he's in his prime). Carlton have tried it with Cripps and often he just gets in the way and the lack of forward pressure doesn't help. Mattaes Phillipou is a little bigger and more athletic and has often struggled to really impact forward too. I like Langford's height and aerial for what it can be combined with a tank all over the ground and his versatility that should see him be able to rotate to a wing, to half back/3rd tall back and of course half forward or deep forward. There's some Jimmy Bartel or younger Jordan Lewis about him. But Bob's right, the main determination will be does he look like he'll be a 30 high quality touches and goal a game attacking midfielder. Because if you get one of those guys you can find others to do the defensive work.

That's a good strategy if you're Collingwood or Richmond or any other big destination club that has something to offer to lure superstars, but BBB was a bit of a miracle that he was both available and healthy in 2021 and we've been trying to replace him for at least 2 years now and struck out on multiple options. I understand the consensus seems to be that Armstrong isn't a star level prospect but there's enough to suggest he's at least a fairly good one. Windsor had some success and Kolt played a few good games but you're overestimating just how much impact these mids will have in year 1. Aside from maybe Sid Draper I reckon they're all much more raw than people think. A lot of defensive running work for guys like Smillie and Langford. Jagga and Murphy Reid need size. Bo Allen might be a ball use problem if he's playing half back.