The Chazz

Stoked with the draw of the NAB Cup. Being based in Qld, it gives me the opportunity to see a couple of "free" games that I wouldn't normally see, then our Vico firends get to see us against a couple of good sides, which non-Vico's get to see on Fox! While I can appreciate the Vic-based supporters being a bit upset that we haven't played a first round (NAB) match for ages, it would give you a great opportunity to fly up to the Gold Coast for the weekend and spend the evening at Metricon. I think it's a great stadium to watch footy at, and the bonus is that if you park at Pacific Fair Shopping Centre and get the bus back, you are directly opposite Jupiters Casino, which on a Saturday night is well worth a look!!!

Do you think over the next couple of seasons that Martin could be groomed for a CHB/FB role, with Gawn as the 2nd ruck?

Well, I did say that they potentially could be worth 10-14 range, and as I said, things have to work in our favour(?) for that to happen. But on the other hand, for them to be worth 16+ would require things to work against(?) us. Basically, for them to be good for us in any capacity, we need to finish closer to the bottom. It's an evil beast. I'd prefer them to be worth around pick 20 - means we finish up near the top and other teams are getting prioirty picks from winning bugger all games!

It's the same question that Geelong asked when they picked up Pods, and Freo asked when they picked up Barlow. Now they are sitting back laughing at all the idiots that let them go! I, and the OP, aren't talking about using a first rounder on him, but surely at a 3rd or 4th round pick, there'd have to be worse out there?

What the [censored] did we bottom out for and have all these top picks? Bloody hell, if we can't get the A-graders from what we've had to put up with over the past 5 years, I'm going!

So where does the resting rruckman go to - forward pocket or bench?

As opposed to you obviously training with the boys and see firsthand what goes on that we don't? Good one.

Not so much overrating them. They can turn out to be a little nugget, but, as you have pointed out above, they can turn out to be mid-teen picks. We (or a club we trade them to) have 5 years to use them. One would expect our ladder position to be higher, meaning our "1st round after club" pick wont be as valuable. On the other hand, if we don't progress like we hope, and other teams are winning their 5 games a year, that's when they are worth a fair bit. My idea of them requires for a few things to go in our favour, just like your opinion of them being overrated, you need teams to lose certain amounts of games, and other teams to activate them. Used right and luck on your side, they are great. Held on to too long and other teams not performing, they aren't great!

It's been something that has had me scratching my head for the past few years, and maybe in 2012, I will discover the answer that I have searching for. The question - Where will our goals come from? Over the past decade or so, it's an area that is hard to find any trend. We can all sit back and talk about how sides must do the press to be successful, etc, etc, but the main thing that you need to do to win games of footy is kick more goals than your opponent! So, looking at the Lions powerhouse of the early naughties, their main goal kick, their full forward Alaistair Lynch, returned a consistent 60+ goals a year, with Browny generally averaging in the 30's. Aker in the 30's, and Voss an interesting mid-20 average. Then we look at the might of the Geelong team, Stevie J is generally good for around 50 a year, Mooney around the same, but the midfielders likes of Ablett and Chapman, who both averaged well over 30 goals for the season. However, Hawthorn in 2008 saw Buddy kick 113, Roughy kick 75, and their mids of Hodge, Mitchell and Rioli with very low numbers (under 20). So, now that we have a forward line with some structure; with obviously Clark as our "go-to" man, and with other options such as Watts, Green, Jurrah and Petterd/Howe, where do you see our goals coming from? Do we have enough forward power to play the Hawthorn-style of having 2 main focal points, with bugger all for the mids to worry about other than getting it in to them, or are we going to rely on our midsized forwards (Green, Jurrah, Petterd, Howe), to kick our goals, with Mitch Clark needing to "do an Al Lynch or Cam Mooney" and just be good for that 50 a season. Looking at the way footy has gone over the past decade, I'm not oozing with confidence if people say that we will get enough from Petterd, Green, Jurrah and Howe (our midsized forwards) to do the ultimate - win us a premiership. It would have to reverse the trend, which I appreciate, trends can change. Geelong are an easy team to use when looking at our structures and set-ups. * Clark maybe our Mooney or Pods. Can he be good for 40-50 goals a season? He needs to be! * Is Jurrah our Stevie J? LJ has already shown, even in an off year, he's capable of a 50+ season * But where are our Ablett/Chapman goals going to come from within our midfield? 30 goals is a fair average in anyone's book, but for a midfielder to do it, gee, Sylvia would be our only possibility, and maybe JT. Just shows how much of a step up these guys MAY need to take. On the otherhand, do we go for broke, like Hawthorn, and try and push for Clark to kick 70+ and Watts to go for 60+? In answer to this, I don't think we are a team set up for that style. The saving grace is that when Collingwood won it last year, there was a more even contribution from smalls and talls. Didak kicked about 50, Cloke and Dawes 30-45, Daisy kicked his 20-odd, Swan chimed in here and there, etc, etc. How I see it, I still think we need more goals from our midfield. I think we need; * Clark to kick his 50+ * Jurrah to kick his 50+ * Green to kick his 30+ And this is where the fun starts and expectations raised; * Howe (18 from 13 game in his first year) should be looking at 25+ * Petterd needs to be able to rotate through the midfield, on his way to a 20+ season * Sylvia REALLY needs to deliver 25+. He has the potential, time to put up! * And Mr Watts. I'm a big fan, and a lot will depend on where he's played, but this season, sorry buddy, you're looking at 20+ * The resting ruckman between them should be aiming for 20+ too. It is one area of the game that I do take a fair bit of notice in. I get frustrated when our top 2 goal kickers are on 40 or so each, then we drop down to 20 for third. 2012 is probably the first year we've had in the past 4 or 5 where we WILL need to see an improvement. As I said earlier, it's a simple theory - kick more goals than your opponent and you win the game (most times this is ture). Thoughts? (Apologies for the lengthy post.)

How many other "after 1st round" picks are there? We have one, Geelong have/had one, anyone else? Port, Bris and GC are the only sides that can get a priority pick in 2012. You would like to think the AFL will give a gift to those Clubs (such as playing GWS twice!), that would help!

Expires 2013. He will want to consolidate a spot in the team by playing consistent footy before worrying about if he should be number 1 ruck. 2013 will only be his 3rd actual season of playing senior level footy. Even Big Maxy would be realistic about things.

One that was down in confidence and still kicked 37 goals? Hawthorn would do it in a heartbeat. Imagine Green perched up next to Buddy, with Hodge, Mitchell and Rioli feeding him. He'd easily kick 30 goals a year for them, even with Buddy. While their window is open, it would've been quite valuable.

Didn't Gawny follow the leader (JT) and sign an extension this year? I don't think it would come down between keeping Jamar or Gawn, Gawn playing under Jamar for the next 3 years will be worth as much to his development as being the lone hand. I'm not questioning his ability, but Maxy would know there is a large gap between where he is at and where Russian is at, and would expect that it would take him a minimum of 2 years, if not 3-4 to be at Russian's level. Let's not forget that Gawn and Fitzy were picks 30+ and 50+. They aren't Top 10 "stars" like Kreuzer.

Did you see any of last season Sloonie? To watch Bruce deteriorate they way he did was quite sad. The difference between Bruce of 2010 and Green of 2011 is the fact that you can easily tell Green has got great footy left in him. There is no way possible that you can argue with that. Green was down in confidence, Bruce'd body was shutting down. If you know what you''re looking for, you would've seen that. Junior was in Bruce's category.

For our compo picks to be 15 & 17, that would mean we would need to finish 3rd on the ladder wouldn't it? Next year isn't a compromised draft - out first compo pick kicks in after our first selection. If we finish 8th (fingers crossed!), our first pick will be pick 10, 1st compo pick = pick 11. I din't miss your point about the Port example at all, I'm asking you what you think for example, Port would offer for Jamar? If they finish 3rd last next year, they will have pick 3 - they wont do it. Don't forget 2 big things at the end of next year. 1. Jamar qualifies for our rookie list (freeing up 1/2 his salary as well as a spot on the list. 2. Free agency kicks in, so if a club offers a decent midfielder for Jamar, if said midfielder is eligible for free agency, they may not get to Melbourne.

So would that mean with Carlton's list the way it stands now (with their quality talls), that they'd easily match up on a forward line with Clark, Watts, Martin/Jamar, Jurrah and a small?

Each to their own, but I think Brad has more to offer over the next 2 years than what Bruce could've offered. The writing was well on the wall for Bruce mid-last season, but he went fishing and got a 2 year deal. I'm sure if Brad wanted to, he would've found the same. Next.

Well BBB, I understand where you are coming from, and thankfully, you or I don't need to worry about such decisions - that's what Neeld is being paid the big bucks for! I know I'm really intrigued with how the next 2 seasons will pan out. If they get things right, especially the balance of the big brigade, we'll be looking awesome!

Obviously the Australian spelling of "arse" is accepted on here. So, irony? No.

Bailey's persistent effort? Stef played 21 games this season - with a majority of those as 2nd ruck, and in the other 29 games (over a period of 2 1/2 seasons), he played multiple positions. FFS, it took Tom Hawkins 3 1/2 years to arrive as a KPF, and he was a highly touted pick (it it weren't for the father/son selections). It takes more than 2 games and a quarter to make someone a KPF. And for the record, between West and Vardy, their 2nd ruck played 18 games for the season (9 each). Pretty sure 2012/2013 we could do similar with Gawn/Fitzpatrick if need be.

C'mon RP, stop being a smartass, putting the Club before yourself is leadership. The arguement is whether that's the only leadership he has shown this year.

What would we get from Port? Do you really think they would offer a pick 3? Could you see GWS or GC offering us their number 1 or 2 picks for Jamar? Let's be serious about this. We have 3 potential 1st round selections next year, in the so called superdraft. We will get Viney, we can trade the other 2 (which will be maybe picks 10 & 12-ish) for an established mid (to please his lovers, I think that deal would get Dangerfield), without the need of trading our best ruckman. Fitzpatrick WILL NOT be ready for number 1 or 2 ruckman in the next 3 years. That doesn't mean we get rid of him, it means we continue to develop him, like Geelong did with West, and as the other thread suggests about big guys taking time to develop, then all of a sudden, in 2015, Gawn is number 1 ruck and hopefully Fitzy is number 2, with Martin a key forward/back. I'm struggling to understand any logic in getting rid of any of Jamar, Fitzpatrick, Gawn or Martin. If you are obsessed with trading one of our excess rucks, Spencer is the man.

Well written Furious, no abuse from me here. Some will argue this, but it probably shows that Green really is a leader at the Club. Could've easily put himself before the Club, ala Bruce, but put the Club before himself and signed a 1 year deal.

Not disappointed one bit. I will watch Junior's year next year with great interest.

Well, I don't expect Fitzpatrick to be anywhere near best 21 in the next 2 years. If he can get 6-8 games in 2012, 12-14 games in 2013, then he is progressing as I would expect. Anything earlier than that - great, andything less - he's in trouble. Jamar will be there until at least 2015. As said, he is a Top 5 (at least) ruck in the league, and with an injury-free few seasons in a row, will continue to be our number 1 ruck for the next 2-3 seasons. Clark, for the umpteenth time, IS A FORWARD - we/he just has to determine if that's full forward or centre half forward. Martin is the interesting one. Martin has shown in 2011 that he is a great 2nd ruck. He is in a situation where his future really is up to him. Does he want to stay that 2nd ruck? Does he want to turn himself in to a CHB or FF? I can't honestly see him taking the number 1 ruck position, especially with the wraps on Gawn. I think Stef has 2 years to decide what he wants to do, and hopefully the coach gives him the opportunity to consolidate his role in the team. With Leigh Brown as an assistant coach, I think he will really assist with Stef over teh coming years - very similar players in my view. Gawn, in my opinion, will gradually take over the number 1 ruck position. I don't agree one bit about either Jamar or Gawn being strong forward options. Well, actually, I may. The thing is that they don't have to be "strong" options, just handy. If we have Mitch Clark playing Full Forward/Centre Half Forward, the resting ruckmen just need to create a contest and get the ball to the ground. If they kick a goal, that's a bonus.