Little Goffy

Oh dear. How quickly can we get Callan Ward to Alice Springs to give a speech?

And we've now got the percentage advantage over the Saints on the ladder, too! Would appreciate updates on Melksham if anyone is following a better broadcast than I am.

I suspect I'd just be despondent.

Quite something to add a zero to the margin between half time and full time! Here's hoping that taking a baseball bat to a watermelon is as therapeutic and confidence boosting for Casey as it is for me.

And the question to be asked, will the remarkable end to the Giro D'Italia have compelled Max to stay up late? Will it inspire him to an epic effort or will he be left languishing on the mountainside? Will he get a more aerodynamic beard cut?

Hawthorn just lost 7% in a single game. The simple margin difference between us and them is now just 206. Win or lose, just 3 goals per game better margins cover that gap by the end of the season. In the spirit of one week at a time, we also go ahead of St Kilda on percentage as well as improving the win-loss if we win by... um... exactly one goal, actually. Yep, that'll do.

The rational preference tonight is for Collingwood to win by about 100, and then be hit by dysentery. In fact, a simple transfer of e. Coli. from one team to the other tonight would be ideal.

Including practice games and vfl time, Maynard puts someone in hospital with a head injury on average every 18 months. Someone crunch the f'r. I say that with the full moral authority of an adorable sweetie cuddle-monster.

Early season favourite Austria knocked out of the eight on the cusp of finals. France earns important double chance as injuries take their toll ahead of Qualifying Final against Russia at Borodino Stadium.

My recollection is that it was one of those 'coach out the season' plans which always becomes 'yeah nah, let's call that done'. Daniher elegantly choosing to finish against his playing club. Epic but infuriating game, too. I think Nathan Brown's visible distress at the siren after not quite nailing a difficult tackle with under a minute to go summed it up and also cemented his own spot as a loved stalwart of the club. But could I tell you which round it was? Not a chance! I even could only be guessing which channel the show is on, though I remember I don't like Marc Fennel. Too much moisturiser, I think.

But is that THE Ebert family, or just a local free range Ebert?

Five pages into the thread, Ethan 'Angel Eyes' Tremblay ignores shots fired, unrolls the saddle bag, calmly fixes the extended stock to his pistol, and puts a bullet right through the forehead at 30 paces. 'Bravo.'

It is a strange thing, I've been a statistician for chunks of my career and an all-round genius my whole life, but I absolutely peel [censored] bananas when it comes to this kind of quiz. I drive people insane when I'm on their team at trivia nights; "Hey, Chris, you know history, when was the battle of Austerlitz?" "Well, the early morning was crucial as the fog masked significant deployments by the French forces, and then by midday when the sun burned through the fog and revealed the French in powerful flank positions, the Austrian army's morale collapsed." "So, you're answer is...?" "Brunch-ish?" Long story short, I'm gonna be useless at this one, but thanks for sharing, I'll see if I can find it online.

Hmm, I think you might be missing the point. Our success has been based on increased changing of angles in motion.

I've always thought of the run to the 8 in terms of the pace needed to overcome immediate rivals, rather than target number of wins. Surely from this point we will outperform Essendon by 1 win. Surely? Then we need to find two more teams we can pass on the ladder. The "Just do better than them" set; Freo - one win and what looks like a truckload of percentage, but is actually a gross margin of about 150 total. Over ten games, if our margins average 15 points better than theirs, we gain that. Very hard to judge because we've been DOWN and then UP in clear blocks, but Freo have been up and down all over the place all season. But, 15 points a game better margins than Freo is absolutely realistic, so we really could pass them even if they don't implode. GWS - similar to Freo, but closer to a 200 point gross margin between us and them. GWS have been more consistent in so far as they haven't had any blowouts, but there is a bit of a flat track bully question mark on them. This is not a day and age where you can prosper for long relying on a full forward to kick 7 goals 1! The "Hope they stumble badly" set; Bulldogs - percentage is plainly out of reach and the Dogs look like they are grinding along efficiently now, and have a relatively mild draw so picking up two wins on them seems a stretch. Hawthorn - Now here are your flat track bullies! Cross your fingers this is true because a two win lead can evaporate very quickly. Percentage gap is about 250 points, which is a lot but if the Hawks don't find some mettle against strong sides they will cop it badly late in the season. Magpies, Dogs, Crows for the next three rounds, and they finish the season against the Crows (in Adelaide) Magpies, DEMONS and then Brisbane at the Gabba. Geelong is always on the edge of a cliff, but I've let go of anticipating the fall. Be assured, I will watch it with joy when it comes. Adelaide, well, definitely flat track bullies with their only win against a top-8 side being the Giants, in Adelaide, in a miserable 52-34 point game. Unfortunately their draw appears to stay pretty soft. Collingwood - it is always possible they'll get done for chemical activities, salary cap rorts, match fixing, or just plain age finally catching up, but it doesn't look likely.

Speaking of statistics, if you go by the numbers Gawn is having his best season. 2025 is his outright best for disposals and clearances and score involvements (and free kicks, which is nice) But then this season is in his top three for pretty much every other stat, but only one stat at a time. For example, he took slightly more marks per game in 2022, and his best season for hitouts was 2018, and his most tackles was 2016, and 2020 just barely edges this year for intercepts, but only 2025 is making a podium finish for every stat. Logically, if Gawn is already credibly considered the best ruck ever, it follows that if this season does indeed prove to be Gawn's best then it must also be the best single season of any ruck, ever. (touch wood, spit into the wind, and whatever else you must do to preserve the sanctity of witnessing something sacred, because we are indeed witnessing something sacred)

Did anyone else have deja vu? That is uncanncy, as is the alertness to recognise. Proof you have re-watched the grand final enough times... but certainly not too many times. ;)

Surprisingly and coincidentally enough, it is actually Viney who leads us for inside 50 tackles (per game), and by a fair margin. Tholstrup second, then Melksham and Petracca, before Spargo comes in a close 5th.

I'm reminding myself to take St Kilda seriously, despite their wonky season, by comparing their set of 'young guns who aren't putting it together consistently yet' with outs. Just imagine if our list was that little bit thinner, with all of Windsor, Lindsay, Langford, Tholstrup, McVee, Van Rooyen, Howes, Woedowin and Brown playing each week. Some weeks it would look terrible, but then some weeks the momentum would come and all of them will have a good day, and all of them CAN play a respectable game of AFL level football in their moment. When opponents let the Saints get their hopes up, they can really dominate - the games against Richmond and Freo being the obvious ones. But the range of results are incredible. Defensively they've given away scores as high as 135 & 127 or as low as 33 and 53. That is decided by whether the team as a whole is confident and engaged with the system.

I have some magnificent exes which I cannot hold a grudge against. One of them, way back in 2005, was completing their Grad Dip Education and a student-teacher at the time. Couple of Collingwood nuffies, the classic Chelyabinsk-style early 20s scrawny fetal alcohol kids, had clearly pre-loaded the beers before coming to the game and were abusing everyone around them from the moment they sat. Putting on her best teacher voice and bringing all her soft-eyed not-quite-160cm intimidation powers to bear, my girlfriend gave them such a stern talking to that they actually went quiet and then moved seats at the end of the quarter. There were genuine looks of awe from others in the crowd - a transition from fearing for her safety to sheer wonder at her power.

AFL protecting their asset. If Gold Coast is the nepo baby, Sydney is the moron nephew. The one who keeps getting jobs in the family business empire no matter how many times they stuff it up.

I for one would like to congratulate the investigation team for filling the hardest possible brief; "Find something, but don't find anything"

"Pickett (24 possessions, six clearances) could have finished with seven or eight goals, but missed several chances when attempting crowd-pleasing finishes rather than simply putting it through the middle" Wtaf, ABC News? There I was all set for the mildky amusing 'also had an unwanted game-high after hitting the post three times' mention, but no, apparently he's some kind of show pony? Raising my 'implicitly racist assumption that Indigenous players are talented but lack maturity' eyebrow. I honestly thought that eyebrow could be retired by now.

Jordan Lewis always struck me as a person of good character. Meanwhile, Sam Mitchell must be just about the only Hawthorn champion left who doesn't hate Hawthorn.

This game against St Kilda would have to be the first time this season we've gone in with a serious expectation that we'll win and win solidly. Here's hoping for setting a new tone the way our 2018 games at Alice Springs did. Actually, I'm just beginning to get a little bit of 2018 vibes from this season. A real 'He's beginning to believe' tension. Will also be fun to see if we can get a better crowd in Alice than the Saints got at Docklands this week.