For the first time since 2004, where I predicted Melbourne taking Matthew Bate and Jordan Russell, I've decided to post a return of the Goodoil Phantom Draft. Here is the first round, with the rest to follow next week. It includes bids and trades to add a bit of silliness to it.
1. Adelaide Crows - Riley Thilthope - 18, 201cm 102kg - West Adelaide
The Crows are in an interesting spot. Thilthorpe, the local product, makes a lot of sense, but taking him at one doesn't necessarily juice the most value from the pick. Trading down is a possibility but if they do that they will want to position themselves to get extra draft material and still get Thilthorpe, which would probably require another trade back up with a third party and it could start getting messy. Trading one pick back with North, who could then facilitate another trade for themselves is a possibility, but in the end just straight up taking Thilthorpe, who is a promising South Australian ruck/forward ends up the pragmatic thing to do. He has Matthew Kreuzer-like ruck potential but also good forward craft in a strong athletic frame that could cause AFL defenders problems for a long time. Number one draft picks get financial perks and it would be a strange decision if the Crows bid on Ugle-Hagan and denied their own player those benefits just to hinder the Western Bulldogs by 300 draft pick points.
NGA Academy Bid - North Melbourne bids for Jamarra Ugle-Hagan - matched by the Western Bulldogs.
2. Western Bulldogs - Jamarra Ugle-Hagan - 18, 196cm 85kg - Oakleigh Chargers
The Kangaroos bid on the best talent in the draft and the Dogs have no choice but to use the flawed points system that benefits them greatly to take Ugle-Hagan, a highly skilled and mobile key forward from the Warrnambool area. He will likely slot straight in as the third tall forward for the Dogs and wouldn't shock if he is in the 25-40 goal range in his first year at Whitten Oval - a very exciting player!
Trade -
The Kangaroos trade Pick 3 and their future second round pick to Gold Coast for their first and second round picks in this 2020 draft and their 2021 first rounder.
3. Gold Coast - Logan McDonald - 18, 196cm 85kg - Perth
North hold highly valuable draft stock here but I think they trade out of it with a host of teams willing to pay a premium for access to McDonald. Here the Roos drop effectively three spots to get Gold Coast's first rounder, they also get the Suns' redundant second rounder this year and a very nice looking 2021 pick swap (based on current ladder positioning). The Suns with all the AFL help they've been given are happy to sacrifice draft capital at a loss to get blue chip talent onto their list and McDonald fits that line of thinking His performances at WAFL senior level have been ground-breaking and he meshes prototypical key forward physical attributes with genuine footballing ability, along the lines of Tom Boyd, who had one of the strangest AFL careers ever, but was talented enough to be paid $1 million per year at a point and went close to winning a Norm Smith Medal. A McDonald-Ben King combination is a salivating prospect for Suns fans, if any exist.
4. Sydney Swans - Denver Grainger-Barrass - 18, 195cm 78kg - Swan Districts
It wouldn't shock me if the Swans are in the Logan McDonald trade up sweepstakes, but Grainger-Barrass is a nice mix of need and best available and would be a good pick for the Swans if they stay pat at this draft spot. A rangy centre half back with strong intercept skills, he should slot straight in to Sydney's back 6 and be a long-term fixture there, projecting to be one of league's best defenders in time.
NGA Academy Bid - Hawthorn bids for Braeden Campbell - matched by Sydney Swans
5. Sydney Swans - Braeden Campbell - 18, 180cm 73kg - Pennant Hills
Hawthorn annoys the Swans and forces Sydney to take him at pick 5. It's a no-brainer for the Swans. They get a two-sided midfielder/half-forward that will step straight into their best 22 and were it not for Matthew Rowell being eligible, likely be a debut year Rising Star contender.
6. Hawthorn - Archie Perkins - 18, 186cm 77kg - Sandringham Dragons
Will Phillips and Elijah Hollands are still on the board, but the jungle drums beat loudly that Perkins is Hawthorn's man. From a needs basis, Perkins makes more sense than Phillips and the similar Hollands has an ACL tear in his medical history, so those factors may be in Hawthorn's reckoning, but Perkins brings X-factor, pace and run to a team in desperate need of some reinvigoration. It would be an interesting pick and if it unfolds this way, comparisoning between Perkins and Hollands will be a thing the Hawks have to deal with. All in all, though, you can see why Hawthorn would go in this direction.
Trade -
The Kangaroos trade the current pick and Pick 30, along with 2021 third and fourth rounders to Collingwood for original picks 14 and 16 and their 2021 first rounder.
7. Collingwood - Elijah Hollands - 18, 190cm 84kg - Murray Bushrangers
Collingwood's unusual offseason gets stranger as it executes a trade to get it one of the consensus top five players in the draft, the highly skilled Hollands. They give up their two late first rounders which are vulnerable to Reef McInnes bids and their redundant future first which they want to discard before a bid comes for 2021 father-son prospect Nick Daicos. In addition, they get points in both years to service bids with. North sacrifice access again to a top talent but they still have a very strong 2020 draft hand and now have three first rounders to play with in 2021. The Pies hope Hollands' flair and skill will help Pies fans forget the losses of Jaidyn Stephenson and Adam Treloar. He is a very talented player, especially around goals, but the ACL history is worrisome, especially considering what the Pies are giving up to get him.
8. Essendon - Will Phillips - 18, 181cm 79kg - Oakleigh Chargers
The Bombers mop up the slider from the accessible consensus top 5 in Will Phillips, the hard running inside midfielder from the Oakleigh Chargers. It's a great result/pick for the Bombers, he helps in the area they are weakest and he has leadership intangibles that will be of benefit - a likely round one contributor for the Dons as a two-way,, inside-out midfielder.
9. Essendon - Nik Cox - 18, 199cm 82kg - Northern Knights
At 9, Essendon goes with a less steady pick and takes the incredibly athletic 199cm Cox from the Northern Knights. It's hard to project what position Cox is best suited to play but as a mound of clay, he is an exciting project for new coach Ben Rutten to work with. The Bombers would have loved to be able to get hold of McDonald via but their picks were in a trade no man's land sufficient to entice Adelaide or North. In time they hope Cox can have an impact up forward with his endurance and unusual elasticity for someone of his size.
Trade -
Essendon trades the current pick to GWS for what were originally GWS's picks 15 and 20.
10. GWS - Zach Reid - 18, 202cm 82kg - Gippsland Power
Essendon trades its third first rounder to get a couple more players in the door slightly down the order. GWS jumps up to get a future cornerstone defender in Reid, who has nice kicking skills to match his wiry 200cm frame. He will take time to fill out but with Phil Davis now at age 30 and with Sam Taylor struggling to get on the park in recent times, it seems sensible to invest in the position group. With GWS strong draft hand in terms of volume of picks, they can afford to take what might be a bit of a risky trade jump on a player whose physical one-on-one strength development will be a pivotal factor going forward.
NGA Academy Bid - Port Adelaide matches Adelaides bid for Lachlan Jones
11. Port Adelaide - Lachlan Jones - 18, 184cm 87kg - Woodville/West Torrens
No surprise that Port matches the bid that comes for Jones from its cross-town rival, a well-rounded half back who could play straight away for the Power and a steal for what they will give up for him under the broken points system.
11. Adelaide - Tom Powell - 18, 180cm 70kg - Sturt
The Crows go down the local path again and select the son of Matthew Powell, the nuggety midfielder/half back who played 16 games for Adelaide in the 90s. His son is a different type of player, a smallish accumulating midfielder with neat skills who has dominated the SANFL junior scene in the last 12 months. He may take some time but once he fills out, which he should given his dad's muscular physique, Powell should be a nice cog in the Crows midfield going forward. Adelaide will be hoping he can have a Caleb Serong-like impact in time.
12. GWS - Heath Chapman - 18, 193cm 81kg - West Perth
The Giants again go to the defensive well and select West Australian Chapman. Though they play in the same third of the ground, Chapman brings a different role to the table than does the earlier-picked Reid. He is a mobile intercept marking type who likes to take the game on, carry the football and deliver by foot. Some would think it's excessive for the Giants to in effect use three first rounders on defence but down the line a defence of Reid, Chapman, Taylor and Nick Haynes could not only be impassable but also outstanding on the intercept and in delivery.
13. North Melbourne - Finlay Macrae - 18, 186cm 72kg - Oakleigh Chargers
The Kangaroos finally make a pick after executing a few trades that will no doubt get tongues wagging on draft night. They take Macrae the smaller younger brother of the Bulldogs midfield star. Similar in a lot of ways to his brother, this looks a nice pick for the Roos as they start to replenish their list with the surfeit of picks at their disposal over the next two years. Fin Macrae could be one to really blossom and play at a level above his draft status, as even though his brother was a high draft pick, he was an enormous improver once he entered the AFL system.
14. Fremantle - Oliver Henry - 18, 187cm 77kg - Geelong Falcons
The way Freo's list is set up, I think this has to be the pick as the Dockers have a dearth of forward 50 marking options. Henry is a mobile third type of forward who should be a nice fit alongside Matt Taberner and Rory Lobb. I think ideally the Dockers would like to go with the local midfield product Jack Carroll at this point but the marriage of need and best available makes the Henry pick a sound one all the same.
15. GWS - Sam Berry - 18, 181cm 81kg - Gippsland Power
After hopefully shoring up their defense for the next decade with their first two selections, the Giants go to work on their midfield and take the tough tackling, inside operative Sam Berry. With Callan Ward nearing the end and his likely successor Jye Caldwell now gone, he will help bring a hard edge to the Giants' core that has probably been lacking in recent times and in effect takes Caldwell's spot on the list as his direct replacement.
NGA Academy Bid -
North Melbourne bid for Reef McInnes which is matched by Collingwood.
16. Collingwood - Reef McInnes - 17, 193cm 86kg - Oakleigh Chargers
North cheekily use Collingwood's original pick and bid for McInnes. Collingwood match and get an intriguing midfield prospect with excellent size, speed and versatility potential. With Hollands and McInnes the Pies have done well to replace some of the spark lost during its controversial trade week.
Trade -
North trade the current pick for Geelong's 2021 first rounder and the second rounder they have that is tied to Essendon.
17. Geelong - Tanner Bruhn - 18, 182cm 75kg - Geelong Falcons
After bringing Collingwood to account, North then add an unholy fourth 2021 first rounder and a valuable second rounder to its books and executes a trade with the Cats. Geelong get a local product they rate a lot higher than this spot in the draft and the Kangaroos are playing the long game under new coach David Noble. Bruhn has been on the nose in recent times, maybe clubs think he is more of an outside player than is desirable, maybe it's because he is so underexposed, I'm not sure. All the same, with this ball skills and poise, he seems a nice pick here for the trade backwards then forwards Cats.
18. Essendon - Nathan O'Driscoll - 18, 187cm 76kg - Perth
Here the Dons go with the West Australian midfielder and in adding him and Phillips they've added a physical edge to their midfield. O'Driscoll is a big-bodied mid or half-back who is a fierce tackler and a decent left footer. When you think about how interested Essendon was in trying to get Josh Dunkley, O'Driscoll is the kind of player that can shore up the kind of weaknesses that the Dons were looking to solidify with that failed trade attempt.
19. North Melbourne - Brayden Cook - 18, 188cm 74kg - South Adelaide
The Kangaroos, with all eyes on them and a probable draft documentary deal brewing, elect to make their second selection of the draft and not add to their 2021 pick haul by adding South Adelaide talent Brayden Cook. Cook has torn the SANFL under 18s apart this year and with his dash, high marking and goalkicking acumen, will be an exciting addition for the Roos. With Tarryn Thomas, Jye Simpkin, Luke Davies-Uniacke and now Macrae and Cook, things probably aren't as bad for North as they appear, especially with what they can now do in the 2021 offseason.
20. Richmond - Bailey Laurie - 18, 180cm 75kg - Oakleigh Chargers
Having lost Jack Higgins, the Tigers find what could be a direct replacement in Bailey Laurie, the diminutive midfielder/forward with game-breaking ability and punishing footskills. He might find access to the best 22 difficult early on, but long-term he seems the perfect type of player for the Tigers's forward half systems, with midfield versatility down the line an added bonus.
21. Melbourne - Jack Carroll - 17, 188cm 79kg - East Fremantle
The Demons add the talented West Australian midfielder from the same WAFL club as Trent Rivers and Luke Jackson. A left-footer who can cover the ground quickly and with plenty of upside, the Dees will be pleased to add some running power to its midfield on the outside, whilst he further develops his promising inside game.
NGA Academy Bid - Melbourne bid for Blake Coleman which is matched by Brisbane.
22. Brisbane Lions - Blake Coleman - 18, 181cm 78kg - Morningside
Brisbane hold on to the exciting and quick half-forward Coleman, the brother of Kaidean Coleman, who gives them another speedy operator inside 50 to combine with Charlie Cameron. Melbourne would have loved to add him to Kysaiah Pickett as a crumbing forward combination.
23. Melbourne - Jake Bowey - 18, 175cm 66kg - Sandringham Dragons
With their second first rounder the Dees take the small but very evasive and neat kicking small Jake Bowey. The son of ex-St Kilda rover Brett Bowey, Bowey will bring an element of dash to Melbourne and with his kicking efficiency maybe add that dimenson that will help balance Simon Goodwin's ball-winning brigade, whilst also helping the Demons' inconsistent small forward play if deployed in attack.
Trade -
Essendon trades the current pick to Hawthorn for Hawthorn's second rounder and 2021 third rounder
24. Hawthorn - Max Heath - 18, 204cm 88kg- Sandringham Dragons
The Hawks trade up a few spots to avoid coughing up a pick unnecessarily to a Connor Downie bid and take a swing for the fences with Heath, a developing ruckman who could be their long-term solution to the ruck position. A giant man with a physical approach, Heath is very much a raw ball of clay but in time could be worth the investment. With Downie to come, the Hawks take the view that this in effect a free hit and take a risk that could pay off in spades.
25. St Kilda - Cameron Fleeton - 18, 192cm 81kg - Geelong Falcons
With their first pick, the Saints add developing Geelong Falcon key defender Cam Fleeton. A more long-range project type player, Fleeton can take a mark and has shutdown defender potential as well. Raw in some areas, the Saints hope he develop into a quality key back and will give him time, something they can afford to do as they've once again bolstered their list with proven commodities, Brad Crouch and Jack Higgins.