old55

I think that at least a 50% possibility.

It's a process - it's possible but unlikely we're going to jump from 9th to the flag next year. We do need to show progress on that journey though i.e. top 4-6 finish.

We can do both. 2021 is top 4-6 finish as stated by Bartlett. Improvement achievable with the addition of Ben Brown and general increasing maturity of our list. 2022 add Z.Merrett or Treloar - push for flag.

They have to be equal going into the draft - there's water to flow under the bridge.

Yes that would work, but it would be generous of us. However they need to have as many list vacancies as they have picks going into the draft so that may be tough for them to have 6 vacancies. The other option open to them is to go into points deficit in 2021 if they use all their 2020 picks. Freo did this 2019 to 2020 - the deficit comes off the first pick so Freo's 2020 1st rounder has been pushed back a couple of slots by that.

AFAIK they've got 14 (1161), 41 (412), 54 (220) = 1793 this year If JUH gets bid at 1 by Adelaide they need 2400, i.e. they're 600 short. They need to make that up with some combination of: Trade 14 at a premium for more points than its value Trade a player for a pick this year Trade a 2021 pick for a 2020 pick Go into deficit in 2021 (which comes off their first pick)

They will if they can get a premium of points - that the AFL allow.

So a nice tradable draft haul in 2020 now: 2020: 26 (729), 31 (606), 33 (563), 43 (378), 50 (273), 68 (59), 69 (49) 2021: 1st, 3rd, 4th Something has to give for Ben Brown Dogs 2020 14 (1161), 41 (412), 54 (220) = 1793. If JUH gets bid at pick 1 they need 2400. So they're ~600 short.

If we're looking for points so we can trade up then 44 and 52 are worth about the same as 31. GWS should be getting 3 firsts for Cameron and Caldwell, so maybe those and 31 is enough for this draft and they'll hand over 44 and 52 for Preuss and we can add them into the bucket for the Dogs 1st.

we're loading up in 2020 for a move up

I prefer AFL Fantasy objective stats related scoring for Fantasy rather than some obscure algorithm. Fantasy scores are not about rating players.

"Dodoro balls up" sounds right.

You compared Smith and Hunt AF points. Not Melksham. I've genuinely tried to help you.

I've played AFL Fantasy reasonably seriously for 10 years. The way stats are converted to AF points significantly limits the score of defensive defenders compared with other on field roles. Thus the AA FF scored 70.9 average whereas the AA FB scored 44.9 average. The only possible comparison using AF points is of players playing the same role and then it's a blunt instrument only really any good for winning Fantasy. Have you ever played it? Here's how AF points are calculated: https://fantasy.afl.com.au/classic/help/official-rules

Biden has a stutter which he has worked hard to overcome and that affects his speech. There is no evidence he "has the early stages of dementia and will struggle to remain coherent for much longer". Are you ageist?

Tom Hawkins - All Australian FF 2020 AF = 70.9 per game AF points scoring is stacked against defensive defenders.

Hunt in the fwd line takes one mark, kicks one goal = 10 AF points Smith in defence makes 10 spoils, holds his opponent to 0 possesions = 0 AF points

What time on Thursday does the Trade period end? 2pm?

If you're so certain then you can join @Elegt, who "guarantees" OMac won't be on an AFL list next year, and buy a membership at the AFL club he's playing at in 2021.

My best guess is that we wanted Isaac Smith for free and to move up the order to take a draft prospect (Finlay Macrae?). We can't take Brown and then Phillips or Polec with picks, and also move up the order and we think the draft option is preferred to the latter. Hence trade for pick 43 is a step on the path.

AF scores are not a sound basis for comparison particularly when they are playing different roles.

I agree he needs to develop his footy smarts. He has only played 18 games and has May and Lever on field to guide him and Jetts probably off field. I think it's a long shot but would pay off big if he can make it because of his physical versatility.

Gimme 7 backs not including Salem. Agreed Rivers is one of them, but I think you'll find we need Salem there too.

FWIW I've already posted my preference in this thread: May, Petty, Lever Salem, Hibberd, Rivers, Smith But Smith is unproven I agree