Sydney_Demon

Lots of speculation about Melbourne's finishing position in the H&A. All will be a lot clearer after this weekend. If Port beat Collingwood then we can't reach 2nd. If Brisbane beat Geelong 3rd will be difficult. We beat Adelaide and 4th is pretty much sown up. I'm still thinking Collingwood vs Melbourne in a Qualifying is odds on at this stage which would be an excellent outcome, second only to Melbourne finishing 2nd and hosting a Qualifying at the MCG against Port or Brisbane (considerably less likely). I predict Geelong will finish 6th and on that basis finishing 4th will also work very well as we wouldn't play them in a Semi.

Ok, firstly I think we can safely dismiss them finishing Top 4. They would need to need to win 2 more games than Melbourne and given our draw and their draw that's highly unlikely to happen. They will in all likelihood finish Top 8 as they would only need to finish 3 3 to make it. I reckon they'll finish 4 2 and finish 6th. If that happens the worst case scenario would me Melbourne finishing 2nd or 3rd, losing a Qualifying and having to host them in a Semi. Let's hope that doesn't happen. I'm amazed that they're only paying $8 for the Premiership because they'd need to win 4 straight finals, with potentially 2 or 3 of them interstate. Everyone talks about last year's run. The reality is that had an incredibly soft draw in 2022 including playing both West Coast & North twice. They could easily have lost their Qualifying Final and then I don't think they would have been Premiers. Instead they got an easy Prelim against Brisbane and an easy Grand Final against Sydney, both of which had effectively plsyed their Grand Finals the previous week. This year is very different. Similar in a way to Richmond last year. Then of course all the 'experts' were saying they could win from anywhere (even though there was no historical evidence, just like Geelong) Did they? Will Geelong this year? Highly unlikely.

Yes, but for Woewodin we didn't have to match a bid from another Club, so we could take him with any late round pick. My understanding was that the Club said to Taj that if he was a higher-round selection by another Club they wouldn't match it but would select him in the main draft if he was still available for Melbourne's last round pick. They coud have taken him as a rookie but there's financial & other implications of doing it via the main rather than rookie draft. The question is if another Club selects Kynan at say from 45 to 60 is the 5th round pick of any use in matching that bid because there are no points attached to it (or do we just throw it away or try to trade it)? Or do we need to trade up or down to get a pick around 50 to get enough points after the 20% discount to match the bid. Are you saying the latter? Or do we go into points deficit for 2024?

Ok, it looks like everyone's trying to find stuff to fill the pre-finals bye. But again, no one has actually explained why the bottom team is undeserving of the No. 1 pick? Because it's presumed they've tanked? 17th vs 18th, 17th likely to win because they're a better team, why should they be rewarded with the top pick? It works against the whole equalisation process.

@Lucifers Hero How does this work? With a 20% discount we would need between 120 & 280 points (for a pick in the 45-60 range) to get him. Can we match that with our 5th round pick or isn't that possible as officially there are no points attached to Pick 89? Would we need to go into deficit for 2024 or should we try to do a pick swap to try to get a late 3rd round pick (3rd Round for a future 3rd Round?). This is different from Woewodin in 2021 as we just used Pick 65 as there were no higher bids. I'd hope that the fact that Kynan's a Melbourne F/S might scare a few other potential bidders away.

I assume Gold Coast could try and take all 3 Northern Adademy players (Cal Thomey's Picks 2, 8 & 11) but can only match bids on the first 2 under the Northern Academy Draft Rules? They'll try to trade out Pick 6 for points. At this stage could they trade say 6 & 44 for Melbourne's 18, 23 & 37 (assuming of course Melbourne are Premiers in 2023 😀)? If Melbourne had 4 & 6 and kept our 5th round pick for Kynan Brown Father/Son we'd be very well placed to either trade up or my preference take 2 players in the 1st Round.

Thanks @Lucifers Hero. I can't find anything online about this. Lot's of stuff about how the points system works (20% discount), ability to go into deficit etc. Cal Thomey has the 3 Gold Coast Academy players at 2, 8 & 11 as of this morning: https://www.afl.com.au/news/981930/cal-twomey-s-phantom-form-guide-top-draft-prospects-july-ranking I assume they could try and take all 3 but only match bids on the first 2 under the Northern Academy Draft Rules? They'll try to trade out Pick 6 for points. At this stage could they trade say 6 & 44 for Melbourne's 18, 23 & 37 (assuming of course Melbourne are Premiers in 2023 😀). P.S. Have also posted this under Draft Prospects thread.

And as they won't be making finals?

Except it won't be 15, it will be 18! The days of sides getting compenation picks at the top end of the draft are history. Last year North got additional 2nd & 3rd round picks for 2023 to be taken immediately after their normal picks on the basis they had to trade them for players. Fremantle now have those picks (21 & 40) in return for trading out Griffin Logue & Darcy Tucker. I assume any compenation picks North get this year wil be on a similar basis (2024 draft, in any case not top end of the 2023 draft since they already have Pick 2). Hawthorn as they've done all season will be playing to win. Doesn't really matter anyway as they're not going to make up 2 games and percentage on Fremantle. Looking at Hawthorn's draw they'll be lucky to win 2 games and I can't see Fremantle losing to West Coast. Bottom 3 locked in. GWS supporters have even more reason to hope Hawthorn beat Richmond as they have Richmond's 1st round pick.

The whole idea of the draft is to feed the best young talent into the worst-performing clubs to equalize the competition. Why would you undermine that by rewarding the best performing of the bottom teams with the best draft pick? Nonsensical. Let's follow this to it's natural conclusion and give the Premiers the No. 1 draft pick. That would teally stop the (non-existent) AFL tanking. The reason why there's a lottery in the NBA is to stop tanking (which is an issue in the NBA). If you're really interested in entertaining supporters of teams who don't make the Finals let's bring back the Night Series or even AFLX: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VFL_Night_Series

Look, I understand how it works. Clearly 7 & Kayo for example want to be able to show games every weekend, and I assume that's why the bye is staggered (and is presumedly part of the deal). Also, of course introducing the Wildcard Round would mean the AFL would be able to continue to have the pre-Finals bye but still have AFL on screens. My comments are purely based on what I think is best from the game's perspective. This of course is highly likely to happen and the AFL won't give a stuff about anything apart from maximising revenue. Clearly it's been on the agenda for a while as they've snuck it in by stealth in the VFL this year, so yes I think it will happen but no I don't think it's a good thing.

Loved the way his father played. If he gets close to that level I'd he happy having him as a Melbourne player. I'm not saying you prioritise him but I love to see these father-sons on the list. We got Woey at 65 and he's already showing that that was an astute pick.

Have you fully thought this through? You have to set up a system at the start of the season so how do you know how many teams are going to be on similar points separated only by percentage? Similar with the round robin system. You'd have to add extra rounds pre-finals to the end of the season. Very exciting for neutral fans (not). The current system works for the 1st draft pick. The only reason you'd change it is to discourage tanking which is a non-issue in the AFL imv (or can be tackled in better ways). You don't change the system just to accomodate people who don't have enough of a life to do without football for a week. I agree. Let's make it an 18 team finals systems. The more football the better! 😀 Why is having a week off pre-Finals an issue? In fact, and this is not an original thought, the mid-Season Bye should be one week involving all 18 teams post-Kings Birthday. Then we wouldn't have this ridiculous situation where some teams are advantaged by playing post-bye against other post-bye sides (all games involving teams post-bye against teams not post-bye were won by the latter). I feel sad for those who can't survive a weekend or two without an AFL game. I like your creative thinking and nominating your opponent is an interesting approach. It seems though it's a bit of a reversion to the old McIntyre Final 8 System which was rejected because sides are not totally in charge of their own destinies and there were matches with meaningless results. Not more rested, just playing against less well-rested opponents. Good for 5th, 6th, 9th & 10th teams, bad for 1-4, horrible for 7-8. OK, Melbourne would have benefitted in 2017 & 2020 but a very short-term reprieve. If you can't make the 8 basically you're not good enough.

I wasn't necessarily saying that there wasn't a sufficient advantage to the Top 4 under the Wildcard proposal, just that in evaluating it you need to recognise that the advantage isn't as big as it currently is. Also of course you need to acknowledge that sides finishing 7th & 8th are going to be significantly disadvantaged. I think @WheeloRatings posted somewhere that the estimated typical chances of teams in positions 1-8 winning the Premiership are: 31%, 24%, 17%, 14%, 5%, 4%, 3%, 2% This of course partly reflects that the higher you are in the 8 the generally better a side you are rather than the pure mathematical chances. The point here is that because of the double chance there's a massive difference between the premiership odds for 4th & 5th. That would reduce under the proposed system, but odds for teams 7 & 8 would increase. Pure guesstimate: 30.5%, 23.5%, 16%, 12.5%, 7%, 5.5%, 2%, 1.5%, 0.8%, 0.7%

Unleveled fixture? Yes, the lower you finish on the ladder the better draw you get for the following season. The lower you finish on the ladder the better access you get to higher-ranked draft picks. Northern academies get you preferential access to juniors in non-AFL states (NSW, Queensland). The whole point of this is to even up the competition over time and it has largely worked. Not perfect because the best players want to move to the better-performed sides, Gold Coast in particular have to pay over the odds to get/keep players, Geelong the opposite. But the Finals system is not the way to even up the comp because there should be some significant reward for outperforming during the H&A. The fact that there are Finals (unlike say the Premier League) means you have to be in form to win. If your H&A record allows you to experiment with different structures, rest players etc. that's how it should be. I agree that having more finals places makes more games relevant (for mid-table teams at least) but making Finals should actually be an achievement. The Top 4 don't get an advantage with a week off. Currently every finals team gets the pre-finals bye. This was introduced in 2016 so every team could be freshened up and field their best line-ups. It also stopped teams mass- resting players in the last round to get an advantage (North Melbourne, 2015). There were complaints in 2016 after the Bulldogs came from 7th to win but no side has won from outside the top 3 since. So what would this new proposed Wild Card round do? The top 6 teams will get a week off to freshen up, teams 7 to 10 play wildcard round; Teams 5-6 will be advantaged because they're rested and play a side that has had to play the previous week, Teams 1-4 won't have that privilege; The losers of the qualifying finals will be disadvantaged compared to the winners of the elimination finals (as they're likely to be the 5th & 6th teams); It will be virtually impossible to win from 7th to 10th (5 consecutive wins) as it's almost impossible to win from 5th to 8th now (4 consecutive wins- 1 winner in past 23 years). Pre-1971 there was a Final 4 (12 teams), 1972-86 Final 5 (12), 1987-90 F5 (14), 1991-93 F6 (15), 1994 F8 (15), 1995-2010 F8 (16), 2011 F8 (17), 2012 onwards F8 (18). So even 8 of 18 is historically generous. 10 of 18 will mean sides with a losing H&A record will make finals. No need for change!

Not true. The play-in yournament in the NBA is 3 games in each division, 6 games in total. A marginal revenue spinner. I suspect the main reason it exists in the U.S. is to reduce the number of meaningless games in the latter half of the season, to stop fans of the lower-ranked teams checking out, and to discourage tanking (which is also why they introduced the draft lottery). Well, you can't do it the NBA way because you would need to extend the Finals by 3 weeks (you can't play football off 3-day breaks). The proposed way (already adopted in the VFL) will just be using the space currently occupied by the pre-finals bye. Yes, the impact in the NBA is significant but I suppose it depends where you're coming from. In the NBA you can actually win from 10th because it's such a marginal advantage to finish higher up the table. I hate that because I think there should be a significant advantage to the higher teams (if there isn't why play the H&A Season at all?). It's great that we at least have that differentiation in AFL but introducing a wildcard round where it's already virtually impossible to win from outside the Top 4 is pointless and degrades the meaning of making the Finals imo. No, the play-ins in NBA are not multi-game. Obviously you can't play AFL as a multi-game series in any case regardless of the system employed.

The VFL is a strange beast with 21 teams playing (basically because Aspley dropped out of the comp before the 2022 season even started). The VFL was re-configured that year and included 6 teams (which became 5) from the former NEAFL (Aspley, Southport, Brisbane, Gold Coast, Sydney & GWS). Basically it covers the entire East Coast. Port & Adelaide Reserves playing in the SANFL & West Coast & Fremantle (actually their affiiiate Peel Thunder) play in the WAFL: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Football_League_reserves_affiliations I don't understand why there needs to be 4 byes (Casey's are/were in Rounds 8, 13, 17 (last weekend) & 20). Each team plays 18 rounds so they don't even get to play each other once. Obviously it would be preferable for everything to line up with the AFL but I guess that's impossible with 7 standalone VFL teams. As VFL players aren't full-timers it wouldn't be feasible for them to travel to SA & WA to play. As it is I don't know how you could be on a VFL list in NSW or Queensland and travel interstate nearly every 2nd week (a similar problem in the other direction but there's 16 teams in Melbourne/Geelong, 2 in Sydney and 3 in Brisbane/Gold Coast). This year there's a Wildcard Round. Accordingly, finishing Top 4 or definitely Top 6 at worst is especially important. It could come down to the last round for Casey against Brisbane to get that 4th spot.

I'm totally against it. It's an idea that has been stolen from American sports, particularly the NBA. I love NBA Basketball but the Finals Format is a joke. Basically they play 82 games to eliminate 10 out of 30 teams. It probably works in America where it's just a way of providing meaningless entertainment and generating lot's of income, which pretty much summarises the American psyche. Surely having 8 out of 18 teams play finals is enough. If we have a Wildcard Round there'll be more teams playing Finals than not FFS. Of course, they've already introduced it for the VFL this year but at least there's 21 teams competing for 10 spots. It's basically close to impossible to win from outside the Top 4 now (it's happened once in the last 23 years) and if this is introduced as it applies in the VFL then the 7th to 10th sides will have to win 5 consecutive games.

I would probably bring Bailey Laurie in as I think he's more of a Spargo like-for-like although Andy Moniz-Wakefield probably applies more tackling pressure.

And Adelaide lost to Collingwood by 2 points 3 weeks ago on the MCG. And since Collingwood according to the media are the best team that has ever played in the history of the game and are certainties for the 2023 Premiership that's pretty good form. I do disagree with you though. You can discount 2 teams for the rest of the year: North Melbourne & West Coast.

I loved the fact that he was deliberately matched against Dusty in a pre-season game to see what he could do. Naturally all the media talked about at the time was the 1 goal Martin kicked where he outpointed Judd (the only goal Dusty kicked for the day in a 50 point loss!).

Not much of an advantage. The last thing we need is Geelong getting a soft game against Essendon at GMHBA and then going on to play Melbourne in a Semi. I don't really understand this anti-Essendon thing. If they're playing Geelong I'll definitely be supporting them!

So not likely to go in the earlier rounds, and if someone bid for him after that we could use our 5th round pick, or as you say pick him up as a rookie. My understanding with Woewodin is that they promised him they'd take him with the last pick (65) in the main draft if he wasn't drafed earlier.

I noted Kynan Brown was listed amongst Vic Metro's best for all 4 of their games but there's not a lot of press about him. Melbourne currently has picks 4, 15, 23, 34, 89. Hopefully that becomes 4, 18, 23, 37 & 92. What's the latest thought about where he's likely to go at the Draft?

No, that's only Next Generation Academy players (and now that's anywhere in the first 40 picks!). Doesn't apply for Northern Academy Players. When Mac Andrew was drafted the rule was the first 20 picke were quarantined but of course he went at 5 and I doubt if Melbourne would have takem that high even packaging picks snd with the 20% discount