Sydney_Demon

I agree with you about Laurie. He played the 1st game this year, struggled and was immediately dropped. I think once you've made the team you should be given 2, preferably 3, games to try to establish yourself. To the Club's credit they at least gave Woewodin a decent run at it (3 games).

No. If we lose a Qualifying and Collingwood lose the other Qualifying then we would still need to travel for the Prelim.

Sorry, I got a bit ahead of myself. We'd need to win by more than 10 goals tomorrow to top Collingwood's current percentage.

Great result with Port (& Collingwood) going down. We just need Fremantle to win tomorrow. Could we finish top? We need percentage tomorrow and then the gap to Collingwood will be purely 2 games.

Touk Miller must be one of the bravest players in the AFL. I wouldn't be going anywhere near Zorko's 'private parts'. Never know what diseases you're likely to be exposed to.

The word is have, not of. Now I know you probably don't care that you can't spell but it's never too (or should that be to, two 😀?) late to learn. More importantly, I can't understand your logic. Firstly you say it's immaterial where Freo finish even though that translates into anywhere between draft picks 4 & 7. So, yes it's possible that North will get a free agency compensation pick for Ben McKay and/or a priority pick, and of course there's a likely Gold Coast Northern Academy pick above 4. Surely that makes it even more important that we get as high a draft pick as we can from Freo. 4 could become 7, 7 could become 10. North won't be tanking against Melbourne to get a priority puck. There's's no simple formula any more. I'm sure they're more than capable of losing without any help from AFL systems. This has been done to death but absolutely no-one thought Freo were going to finish 15th in 2023 when this deal was done. So any commentary on the deal should substitute 4 & 23 for something more realistic as a prediction at the time the trade was done.

Look, of course I'm hoping for 4 Melbourne wins, but any loss for Brisbane & Port gives us wriggle room in case we lose against Carlton or the Swans. Freo maybe going up a ladder position or 2 is much less important than Melbourne finishing 2nd. We definitely don't need a draw. That would put Brisbane at a point where percentage would be irrelevant both for them and Freo. Assuming Melbourne make up the percentage differential against Brisbane (likely I think) a draw is essentially a win for both Brisbane and Fremantle (because Freo have an insurmountable percentage differential below every team above them). A worst case scenario.

Surely you're hoping for Christian Petracca above the Bont!

I hope the Suns win as it reduces chances of Freo moving up the ladder. Actually I don't think it matters as Freo won't overcome the percentage differential to either side. A draw would be a good result. I'm hoping for a Cats win. Still hoping Top 2 for Melbourne. Actually I don't mind either way as I reckon Geelong will miss Top 8 if they lose.

You're right it won't happen, but actually I want Essendon to win as it reduces Fremantle's chances of finishing further up the ladder and if Essendon can make the 8 it means there's one less dangerous team in the Finals.

I was disappointed with last night's result basically because I see Richmond as less of a threat than Western Bulldogs but essentially if didn't matter who won in terms of Melbourne finishing Top 4. Actually on reflection maybe it was better for WB to win as Richmond would need to have a clear game's break to finish ahead of Geelong whereas WB have the 2-point gap. As far as other non-mfc games go am hoping for a Geelong win tonight and Freo tomorrow to help our Top 2 chances.

There's a few factors at play here. Port are best placed in that they're a game clear but there's a significant chance that they could drop to 3rd or 4th as it only take either Brisbane or Melbourne to finish strongly over the last 4 rounds. If that happens they will have a difficult Away Qualifier. I really think they need to finish 2nd. I would say Brisbane are in a similar position. Collingwood are of course best-placed as their position is improving as they will finish top and now have a significant chance of playing either Port or Brisbane in a Qualifier at the MCG (rather than Melbourne). Also Port appear to be going through a bad patch at the moment and Geelong are favoured to beat them tonight at GMHBA, especially with Aliir Aliir out with concussion. I'd say Port & Brisbanes' odds are about right in relation to each other but of course as a group all the teams odds are unders with the bookies margins.

Fair enough. I like our chances against Collingwood as well, and I think that's the most likely Qualifying Final scenario. FWIW I also like our chances home (especially) or away against both Port & Brisbane. On that basis we are very-well placed right now. My theory as to why sides don't win from 4th is that, based on ladder position, their path to a Premiership is likely against Teams 1, 5, 2 & 1, which is much harder than the 1st team (4, 3, 2), 2nd team (3, 4, 1), or 3rd team (2, 6, 1 & 2). For the same reasons it's significantly easier to win from 5th than from 6th or 7th. Essentially the main issue for the 4th team is they generally (not this year I hope) lose a tough Qualifier against the best-performed team (away from home), and then have to play a Semi against a team not much more worse-performed than them (5th) that's had a much easier first finals game (an Elimination Final against the 8th team). Of course all this is affected by the vagaries year-to-year of actual matchups, recent form, injuries, home ground advantage, etc. I'd say this year that if Collingwood finish top & Melbourne finish 4th the teams are evenly-matched and of course there's no home ground advantage. But whoever loses that Qualifier has a tough run home (including an Away Interstate Prelim).

If Dusty, Cotchin & possibly Grimes were all out purely because they couldn't get up after a 5-day break I'm thinking it would have made much more sense to rest them against Melbourne, rather than against the Western Bulldogs. It probably wouldn't have made any difference given last night's winning margin but surely Richmond should have prioritised an 8-point game against a more beatable opponent? Or did they think naively they could beat Melbourne with their best team and also beat the Bulldogs with significant outs. Delusional! I put Adam Saad in the same category. A severely over-rated player that I'm always happy to see attempting to distribute the ball. Compare them with Christian Salem who is an elite ball-user.

No, we don't need to finish 2nd but it's a significant advantage going into finals compared to 3rd or 4th (although I acknowledge it doesn't guarantee anything. Look at last year). I agree there's no accolade for finishing higher up the ladder, even being minor premiers. But I don't accept that somehow if you play at 90%, concede you aren't going to finish 2nd, that somehow helps your prospects. We were carrying significant injuries last year at season end, weren't able to run out games and that was a factor in us losing our 2 finals but I don't accept that if we'd rested players, not played as hard & finished 4th things would have ended up any differently. You don't flirt with form. Now, this could all change dependent on results over the next couple of weeks. I do concede if we reach the point when 4th is the best we can finish you might manage some players and/or change game style slightly. But even on this managing players thing, you don't rest players just because you can. You do it if there's a reason to do it, little niggling injuries that can benefit from a week's break etc. I'm happy to leave it up to Melbourne's fitness & medical staff to make those calls rather than pretend I have any expertise or inside knowledge.

Form is a factor but I'd say the main reason is results. Basically Melbourne are almost no chance now of missing Top 4 (a few weeks back that wasn't the case) and sides don't win from outside the Top 4. Also we are now a realistic chance of Top 2. Collingwood are logically favourites because they will be Minor Premiers and with Melbourne a realistic chance to finish 2nd our chances of going straight into a Prelim are much-improved. All things being equal Melbourne & Collingwood would be favoured because the Grand Final will be at the MCG.

I don't see it this way at all. At this stage Melbourne will be attempting to finish 2nd. Now that may change going forwards, depending on results in games involving Port, Brisbane and Melbourne. And I'm not sure that finshing 4th is necessarily better than finishing 3rd, particularly if Port finish 2nd. History shows sides don't win from 4th (they haven't in the past 23 years since the current Finals System came in in 2000).

Fair enough, but Dusty at 50% is still ahead of 90% of the rest of the Richmond team, especially given Western Bulldogs are missing significant players in their backline: Alex Keath (Injured), Josh Bruce (Injured), Ryan Gardner (Injured), although Liam Jones and Ed Richards are back. As far as Cotchin is concerned, I don't think he's even in their best 22 so him being managed is probably neither here nor there.

Personally I would have preferred Hibbo coming into the side for Tomlinson and leaving Smith as Sub, but as others have said maybe Simith needs the game for fitness. It will also be an opportunity for Smith to show what be can do as a backman. Or Petty & Smith could alternate up front & up back. I disagree, Tomlinson can only play back. I know he came to the club as a wingman but mobility is an issue for him. I know Hibbo is also a backman but definitely more mobile and can play both big & small.

As long as it's not Round 24 😀

I can't understand why Richmond are 'managing' Dusty tonight. This is a must win game for them. It would have made more sense to rest him last week as they had more chance of beating Western Bulldogs with him in the side than beating Melbourne with him in. Having said that, I assume he must have picked up a niggle last weekend. It doesn't make sense otherwise.

@WheeloRatings has us a 1.8% chance of being Minor Premiers. Sounds about right to me.

I don't have a particular position on bonus bets, but clearly it's just another way of encouraging gambling and hooking punters. You know that the agencies know exactly what it costs them and will more tham make it up elsewhere. They're not doing it because they're feeling generous!

I'm not arguing gambling should be banned. That would be totally unfair to the vast majority of punters who aren't problem gamblers, the same applies to alcohol & tobacco. I have no problem either with markets being set at levels that ensure profitability for the bookies/betting agencies. That's the way the (capitalist) system works. I'm probably a little less sympathetic to these industries than you are because I believe a significant percentage of their profits comes from problem gamblers, they know it, and they're happy to profit from that sector's misery. But I agree that at the end of the day Government needs to do something about it and they won't do something about it unless they're pressured to do so. Australia has one of the weakest positions on this internationally. You can bet your bottom dollar (excuse the pun) that there's a very significant lobby presence arguing for minimal restrictions. I'd go beyond that though. Why is the AFL promoting gambling? Because all it cares about is profitability and is happy to take the easy money. To it's credit, Melbourne Football Club (and a number of other clubs) has taken a much more responsible, family-orientated approach on this issue.

I don't really like us rookieing Father-Sons. ideally we take him with our last draft pick like we did with Taj Woewodin. Of course this might depend on whether we have a spare position on the main list which will of course further depend on what happens re delistings, retirements & trades.