Sydney_Demon

Who knows? But one thing I think I can say is there has been absolutely no evidence of any AFL team tanking this year. Yes, some poor performances, some unlucky losses, poor umpiring decisions heading to unlucky losses.... So can everyone get over the suggestion of a draft lottery to fix a non-existent ptoblem. The fact they have this in the NBA is not a recommendation, in fact the opposite.

Even more reason that we needed to win today. We would have needed GWS to be fully-motivated if they were playing to keep Carlton from finishing Top 4. I cannot see GWS making up the percentage gap to St Kilda although it's possible if St Kilda have a bad loss to Brisbane. Even less likely that the Swans will make up the gap to Carlton (which is the equivalent of maybe 90 points). Sydney will be extremely motivated, even if St Kilda have an unlikely win, just to stay ahead of GWS.

Strange that, and also that only 4 of 41 have come from 4th. From 1st 23, 2nd 14, 3rd 0, 4th 4. I assume back then that nearly all these games were played at the MCG, so little home ground advantage (except for Melbourne, Richmond from 1965) so surprising bias in results towards the Top 2. It also negates the argument that is commonly rolled out about the top teams being disadvantaged by not playing enough in Finals period (e.g. Melbourne 2021), as the winning 2nd semi-finalists back then would only have played once in 4 weeks (Week 2). I couln't tell you though which teams won after coming through the Prelim and which after coming direct from the 2nd Semi.

I am much-relieved after today's win over Hawthorn. For Melbourne to finish Top 2 it will now take a miracle but in the remote case of that being a possibiity we will know before our game against the Swans. If we'd lost today and then lose next week against the Swans, Carlton playing the last game would know that they were playing for a Top 4 position. It might now be a case where the last match of the Season is a dead rubber.

We're not going to get Read. He's Northern Academy and will go to Gold Coast unless some team (and I hope it's not Melbourne) select him much higher than they should.

I don't understand the argument that if you finish 18th rather than 17th suddenly special compensation is no longer required or given. Special compensation isn't based on performamce over one year. And if it was you could argue that finishing bottom shows you're more in need of help that finishing 2nd-bottom . Having access to Harley Reid doesn't suddenly negate everything else. Why does the NBA have a lottery? Because it's a television event. Because tanking is an issue in the NBA. On the one hand they try to stop it my having 20 out of 30 teams make the finals (and what a farce that is). On the other hand, they allow bottom teams to basically trade their entire team out mid-season to manufacture poor results and guarantee bottom table finishes. Tanking isn't an issue in AFL. The lower the position you finish on the ladder the better draft position you have and that's the way it should be. You don't have a lottery because it works against that process.

I like our chances of getting Pick 4. On form I can't see how Fremantle beat Hawthorn and Gold Coast should beat North. Or both sides could win or lose and Gold Coast make up the 1.6% percentage differential (32 points right now).

Yes, but they would far preferred to be able to get an advantage out of trading Pick 1 out. Effectively they now have Pick 3 as Gold Coast are likely to take Jed Walter at 2. In fact it could be worse if the AFL contrive to give North an extra Round 1 pick (Pick 2) as compensation for Ben McKay leaving as a free agent.

Nightmare scenario!

I mean no disrepect but I have no idea what you're talking about. Yes, there are a whole lot of variables that are hard to predict. But you seem to be saying that just because there's unknown variables we just assume that predicted outcomes are toss of a coin. Are you saying that you can't make a prediction that Western Bulldogs are highly likely to beat West Coast Eagles tomorrow because we don't have complete information and sometimes teams win against the odds? I agree that statistics aren't perfect, that any model trying to predict future results will be necessarily flawed, and that anomalous results do happen. I also accept that any team can win from any position if it's mathematically possible. I also accept that just because no side has won from 4th in the 23 years of the current system doesn't mean it can't or won't happen in the future. Statistics don't tell the whole story and should always be considered with a certain about of skepticism, but that doesn't mean you just ignore past evidence and predictions based on extrapolations into the future based on it.

Right now all I care about is beating Hawthorn tomorrow. Even better if Carlton lose today and I can relax a day early. I'm planning on going to the Sydney-Melbourne game next weekend and I don't think I could handle being there knowing we need to win to finish Top 4.

No, we go 0-2 and we can't fiinish higher than 4th. If we win 1 game more than Port we will definitely, not likely, finish above them because of the percentage differential. I agree. Normally of course 3rd is preferential to 4th but this year, given Brisbane are highly likely to finish 2nd, 4th is preferential. I accept that Collingwood are looking pretty wobbly missing crucial players but can't see them losing to Essendon and sliping below Brisbane. I have mixed feelings. No, we don't want to play Brisbane at the Gabba but I still think we'd be a big chance in that game, and if we lose I'd definitely prefer to play whoever finishes 6th or 7th in a Semi rather than Carlton who we are likely to play if we lose to Collingwood. Also we cross over and Collingwood in a Prelim at the MCG is probably preferable to Brisbane in a Prelim at the Gabba. I guess in a nutshell I'm saying Brisbane in a Qualifying is not a disastrous matchup.

Why is 4th vs 5th any tighter than 2nd vs 3rd or 6th vs 7th? Admittedly the latter 2 combinations couldn't happen in a Semi so I would agree 4th vs 5th is likely tighter than 2nd vs 6th.

I actually think you're looking for causation, not correlation 😀. As has been pointed out, we're looking for factors that explain the lack of success for teams finishing 4th. Clearly each game is not 50/50 so you can safely dismiss that. For what it's worth, if each game in the finals was 50/50 the odds for each team being Premiers are 1-4 18.75%, 5-8 6.25%. Now these aren't the actual odds due to the effects of home ground advantage, the general tendency for higher-positioned teams to be better-performed, the fatigue factor for teams having to win from 5th-8th etc. etc. Not true. In fact the split of Premierships prior to 2021 (since the current system came into being) was 1st 6, 2nd 7, 3rd 7, 7th 1, so now the split is 8 7 7 1. Now assuming each game was 50/50 (which it isn't) the split should be 1-4 23 x 18.75% = 4.3125, 5-8 23 x 6.25% = 1.43125. Overall teams 1-4 have exceeded that split, and teams 5-8 the opposite, which is what you'd expect due to factors detailed above. But the question remains, why is it so hard to win from 4th (0 of 23), or, the related question, why have only 8 of 23 Premiers come from the 1 vs 4 Qualifying Final while 14 of 23 have come from the 2 vs 3 QF? I've posted on this before but I theorise it's because 1 vs 4 get's a harder series of matches (particularly 4). 4 vs 5 in a Semi is the obvious tough game, not so much because 4 & 5 are evenly-matched but because 4 has (in general) come off a hard (losing) match vs 1, with 5 coming off a considerably easier (winning) match vs 8. But even the winner of 1 vs 4 has a harder Prelim against 3 (usually) or 2, whereas the winner of 2 vs 3 has an easier Prelim against 4 (usually). Also the loser of a 2 vs 3 QF gets a comparitively easy SF against 6th or 7th. But looking at this year specifically, if it's 1 (Collingwood) vs 4 (Melbourne) it's a bit different because the teams are evenly-matched and there's no home ground advantage. Also the winner of that match will have a Prelim where they have significant home ground advantage, and will also have home ground advantage in the Grand Final. This could be the year that the 4th team is the Premiers if Melbourne finish 4th. Conversely I'd say if Brisbane or Port Adelaide finish 4th they have virtually no chance of being Premiers.

I'm not really understand why we would swap 4 + 5 for 2. If the AFL points equivalent is anything to go by 2 is worth the equivalwnt of 11 + 13. Now I wouldn't agree with that but I reckon 4 + 5 is way over the odds for 2.

So being gifted maybe a Top 7 player is only part of their assistance package? Unbeleivable! And no doubt getting a 1st round selection straight after North's current selection would not even be considered as part of the assistance package. I think Gold Coast's position is very difference from North Melbourne's. There are significant disadvantages to overcome for them and it's important to the AFL's mational strategy that they succeed. In North Merlbourne's case surely it's just general mediocrity. You need to provide equal opportunity for clubs but you can't basically keep gifting them concessions. The problen isn't with 18 & 23. As I said, at the moment those selections will effectively be 23 & 28 as every Northern Academy, Father/Son, Pre-Listing, & Free Agency Compensation Pick pushes back the Picks you have actually earned through ladder position & previous trading.

I agree that this Draft is turning into a complete farce. If North are able to pre-list Ryley Sanders who Cal Twomey currently ranks at No. 7 and potentially get Pick 3 as free agency compensation for Ben McKay, they'll have picks 2, 3 & 7. What they actually should be getting if there was any fairness in the system and we don't rewarrd mediocrity is maybe 2, 19 (end of 1st round compensation for McKay), 2nd & 3rd round 2024 special compensation picks that they have to trade for players (same as last year). Gold Coast will get Jed Walter, Ethan Reed & Jake Rogers as Northern Academy selections (Twomey ranks them 2, 9 & 12). Western Bulldogs Father/Son Selection Jordan Croft (11). Melbourne currently has picks 5, 15, 24, 34 & 89. 15 & 34 are based on our current 4th ladder position and clearly we all hope they become 18 & 37. I'm hoping that 5 & 24 will end up 4 & 23. So maybe it ends up 4, 18, 23, 37 & 89. We clearly need to trade up because at the moment picks 4, 18 & 23 are likely to become a compromised 6, 23 & 28. Gold Coast will be looking to trade out their top pick (4 or 5), Western Bulldogs 11 & maybe 17 so there should be opportunities.

@Nascent Could you explain what this pre-listing of Sanders means? I understand North are applying for this on the basis of their support for him over a number of years of junior development. But I don't see how this differs from NGA like Melbourne & Mac Andrews where clubs can use discounted points but is only an option outside the Top 40 picks. The following Fox Sports article seems to summarise it pretty well: https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/teams/north-melbourne-kangaroos/afl-news-2023-north-melbourne-three-top10-draft-picks-ben-mckay-compensation-first-round-pick-ryley-sanders-next-generation-academy-prelisted/news-story/fe2d2db23015d4b1d2d232f3983cd3b0 Am I write in assuming this pre-listing will effectively be North's requested special assistance compensation for 2023? Especially if it's in addition to a ridiculous potential Pick 3 free agency compensation for Ben McKay, it seems a massive ramping up of the compensation they received last year which was 2nd & 3rd round 2023 picks that had to traded in 2022 for players (these picks 21 & 40 are now owned by Fremantle).

I would have preferred a Fremantle win today but there are 2 consolations: a better draft pick for Melbourne and a small winnning nargin for Brisbane (which might be meaningful in the push for 2nd position). 2.5 games clear of 5th and surely we'll win at least 1 of 3. We need to knock off Carlton next Saturday and finalise the Top 4 (if not their order)!

If a relatively small sample size of 23 seasons since the current finals system was introduced can be relied upon, finishing 1st or 2nd (or surprisingly 3rd) gives you an equal chance of Premiership success (from 1st 8, 2nd 7, 3rd 7, 4th 0, 7th 1). This year is a bit different because at full strength the 4 teams arguably are fairly evenly-matched. Home ground advantage plus the Grand Final being played at the MCG working against the interstate clubs are the important factors at play. I'd argue that finishing minor premiers was important for Melbourne psychologically in 2021 but this year irrelevant. So, yes, I would agree finishing 2nd in H&A is actually better than finishing 1st, assuming Port or Brisbane finish 3rd.

All the media has been raving this season and last about how much of a blast of fresh air McRae has been and I agree with them. But clearly, as we all know, it's a lot easier when you're winning games (partly because other teams have fallen over from unloseable positions after buying into the Collingwood comeback hype) and have no injuries. Let's see how McRae stands up if Collingwood actually gets a bit of negativity from the press and even a modest amount of bad luck.

This whole tanking speculation discussion involving various teams this year is a whole lot of BS IMV. I've seen no evidence in any game this season of this happening. Yes, lots of poor performances, reversals of form, close wins & losses involving lower-positioned teams (which is not the safest way to tank). When Melbourne was accused of tanking back in the 2009 season there was clear incentive to do so, because there was a known formula in place that if you won 4 games or less 2 seasons in a row you got a priority draft pick prior to the first round of the draft. That hasn't been the case since the 2012 pre-season. it's been clear from recent performances of both West Coast & North that neither want to finish bottom of the ladder. i.e. even the incentive of getting access to Harley Reid isn't enough to overcome the shame of getting the wooden spoon.

Well done on your prediction for the 2021 Premiership! I'm still [censored] off about the Cairns fiasco in 2020 when Sydney in particular were severely advantaged (on top of the fact that our draw would have been much better if 22, rather than 17, games were played that season as we finished 2nd bottom in 2019). No AFL team should ever have to play in Cairns again. It was a total joke as it totally compromised the fixture. Regarding last year, I think its very easy to rewrite history based on final outcomes. We did finish 2nd in the H&A and thrashed Brisbane away in Round 23. We lost close games to the Swans & Brisbane because we had injuries, couldn't run games out, and failed to put our opponents away in the first half (especially Brisbane. 99 games out of 100 we win that game). Geelong meanwhile had the softest draw of all time (gifted 4 games & percentage as they played North & West Coast twice). If Melbourne had beaten Sydney or Brisbane or Collingwood had beaten Geelong in a very close Qualifier who kjnows what would have happened? IMV Melbourne lost for a whole lot of extraneous factors largely outside our control, not due to bad coaching. You need luck to win Premierships. We had none when it counted last year.

Pick 3 isn't on, especially after Fremantle do the right thing by Melbourne and beat Brisbane today 😀. The 2 out of 3 vs Fremantle 0 out of 4 scenario could work but Hawthorn would need to make up 9% on Fremantle (about 80 points differential), not helped by the fact they Hawthorn need to lose to Melbourne. Helping of course is that Hawthorn are playing Fremantle in Round 24.

Well, maybe we're at the point where we don't need to comment on the views of various Fox commentators because, like the old Channel 9 cricket commentary team, most of them are there because they once were top level VFL/AFL players rather than having any actual expertise (let alone doing any independent research/analysis) but... Yes, obviously Port are going to be better with a healthier list but by then they're likely to be 3rd or 4th and having to play Away Qualifiers/Prelims in Brisbane or at the MCG. They're going to finish Top 4 but their task is so much harder than the Top 2 they were almost guaranteed 4 weeks ago. But back to deathriding Fremantle, I'm happy to park the deathride today against Brisbane and in Round 23 against Port. In a perfect world they win those 2 and lose against West Coast in Round 22 & Hawthorn in Round 24 😀.