Sydney_Demon

It's interesting that Barrett jumps all over Melbourne re it's treatment of Grundy. If one thing was shown on Friday night it was that Gawn should be doing 90% of the ruckwork. Gawn admitted that he hasn't been a success up forward either. If Gawn had been kicking multiple goals then the position with Grundy and him sharing ruck/forward responsibilities wouldn't have changed. The commentary is ridiculous. Grundy, or for that matter Max, aren't owed anything and nothing is guaranted forever if it isn't workong. It was sold to Grundy on a certain basis, it didn't work, so you try something different. That doesn't mean the Club doesn't value Grundy. If Grundy doesn't make it as a forward, then the whole situation and Grundy's future at the club gets re-evaluated. That's what professional football clubs do! As far as I'm concerned that show is a waste of space. Apart from Damian Barrett the inclusion of Nathan Brown disgusts me. There should be no role for someone who is there to push sports betting on a daytime program. Apart from the Demonland Podcast which is essential listening, I quite like The Round So Far on Sunday mornings on the AFL website, plus the AFL Podcast Gettable, and other podcasts Tradies & Footyology. I guess that's what all journalists do. David King was basically conceding the Premiership to Collingwood on First Crack last night. It's amazing that the 'experts' have totally forgotten the performance Geelong put in against the Swans just over 2 weeks ago. Earlier in theseason they all happily went along with Cameron being the best player in the comp and when Geelong lost a few, Cameron kicked no goals, we never heard a thing. He was brought to the Club to share rucking/forward duties with Max. The idea was that both would rest forward and both would kick goals. He's also 2.5 years younger than Gawn and I assume will become the prime ruckman when Max is no longer around. Grundy hasn't been kicking goals, Gawn hasn't been kicking goals, so they've reverted to Max being the man. You try things, sometimes they don't work out, you change approaches. Personally I don't care what a lot of people are thinking, I choose to think for myself. Big coin? $900k and Collingwood are probably paying $300k of that. Not cheap but we got him for Pick 27. Virtually the entire media pack raved about the positives at the time. Of course the same hacks, and that word particularly applies to Damian Barrett, are now happy to go Melbourne and label the move a mistake.

I don't understand your thinking. Yes, if we lose in 2nd vs 3rd, we then have to win a Semi which unfortunately is likely to be a Victorian team and then we would have to beat Collingwood (very probably) in a Prelim. The alternative is we finish 4th and play Collingwood in a Qualifying and if we lose, we again play against a Victorian team in a Semi, and then have to win an Away Prelim. We're going to have to get past Collingwood at some stage but it will be at the MCG. On current form of course they'd be favourites, although we did beat them pre-bye! I don't see meeting them is likely to be any easier in a Prelim than a Qualifying. What, Collingwood only decide to turn up and play when it's a knock-out match! In a perfect world we want to finish 2nd and host a Qualifying. The next best alternative is 4th aganst Collingwood, the last 3rd against Brisbane or Port. Except for the interstate travel thing arguably it's better to be in the 2nd vs 3rd Qualifying because no side has actually won from 4th in the AFL Final 8 System Era (last 23 years)! 1st has won 8, 2nd & 3rd 7, 7th 1 (Western Bulldogs 2016).

I don't think we'll eclipse Brisbane's percentage but realistically could exceed it (which is all we need to do, or maybe we would prefer not if it means we finish 3rd rather than 4th). Currently about 5.3% / 87 points for & against differentials. We wouldn't need to make up the whole 87 points as their against score will be higher than ours. So let's guestimate say 80 points. Brisbane have a much touger run home. We need to finish 2nd or 4th, not 3rd, as Collingwood are virtual certainties for minor premiers. I think we can say with confidence that Collingwood will have a better percentage than Melbourne and Port worse. Geelong's percentage is irrelevant. All other teams will finish with inferior percentages than Melbourne's. Have mixed feelings about this at this stage but on balance I agree about this week at least. If we win and they lose they'll be 2.5 games behind us and 3.5 behind Brisbane which will pretty much finalize the Top 4. I think the 8th team will have a 12 11 record and Geelong only need 3 wins out of 6 to get to 12 10 1 which will get them there. Basically what I'm saying is Geelong is highly likely to finish in the 5-8 bracket regardless and I definitely don't want them Top 4. I think that's highly unlikely to happen. 3 3 will get them in the 8. 5 to 8 wide open, although really I'd include only 5-12. Gold Coast (because of their poor percentage) & Sydney would need to win 5 of 6. Geelong will make it as they only need 3 3 from here. St Kilda & Essendon are weak teams but have soft runs home, Western Bulldogs also. GWS, Carlton, Richmond & Adelaide probably need 4 of 6. Melbourne will have a big say in this as we play the latter 3. On form I predict Western Bulldogs, Geelong, Essendon & GWS for 5th to 8th (but what would I know 😀) Brisbane are no certainties to finish above Melbourne as there's definitely a possibility we make up the percentage differential. They're always a chance for a big win at home for them but they have a much harder run home than Melbourne. As it stands at the moment we're 3 games behind Port (because of better percentage) & 2 behind Brisbane (because of inferior percentage), but that could change to 3 & 1 over the season. We beat Adelaide, Collingwood beat Port, Geelong beat Brisbane and it tightens up considerably. I think Brisbsne beats Geelong but let's hope that it's either a narrow win to Brisbane or a huge win to Geelong!

Your logic is spot on. It's a tricky situation. A lot more will be known after this weekend because if Collingwood win they'll definitely finish top (I think they'll finish top regardless). If Port win they'll almost certainly finish 2nd (1st unlikely still). We want Collingwood to win, obviously Melbourne against Adelaide and I'm not sure about Brisbane vs Geelong (Geelong probably if Port lose). I think Brisbane will win though. Anyway, all will be much clearer in a week's time!

There definitely would be compensation. I think you go for the best prospect regardless of the Tassie go home factor. That might even scare away a few other teams from picking him. Doing the AFL ladder predictor, I have us getting Pick 5 from Freo even if they beat the Swans this weekend (which I think they will, hope I'm wrong). If the Swans win I think there's a big chance Freo finish above them. We could still trade up expecially given Gold Coast will be looking to trade out their current Pick 6. Currently we have picks 4, 15, 23, 34, 89. I reckon that 4 will change to 5 and 23 to 24 and of course I'm hoping 15, 34, 89 become 18, 37, 92 😀). 5, 18, 24, 37 & 92 will hopefully be a good starting point for some decent players. We wouldn't use 92 but could trade it.

Love your optimism. This scenario begins (and potentially ends) with the Port-Collingwood game this weekend. Collingwood wins and it's all over for top spot. Port wins and it's all over for Top 2. Definitely the most likely scenario. Obviously finishing 2nd & hosting Port or Brisbane at the MCG in a Qualifying would be ideal but unlikely. Apart from that finshing 4th & playing Collingwood at the MCG definitely preferable to playing Port (likely) or Brisbane away in a Qualifying.

This is not remotely the same situation. Melbourne got Grundy for Pick 27, Fremantle gave away Pick 13 (ended up as Pick 15) in 2022 & 1st & 2nd round picks in 2023 (currently 4 & 23) for Jackson. Collingwood are paying a big part of Grundy's salary as well (maybe $300K). Clearly Melbourne wanted to keep Jacko and only went for Grundy after it was clear Jacko was moving on for a lot more money than Melbourne would have been prepared to pay him (and that was after a poor 2022 season). Don't give up in the Grundy experiment yet, and even if it doesn't work it was a good trade at the time in my view. We don't need another midfielder (Serong), We need a key forward. If Sydney beat Fremantle next week I'd say F are an extremely big chance to finish 15th. With their poor percentage they'll finish the bottom of every team with the same win-loss record. It will be improved by playing West Coast but not by enough. Buddy's not alone. Keith Greig won 3 Brownlows and Robbie Flower never won any. They're not going to lose to West Coast and will start favourites against the Swans at home next week. Surely a big chance against Hawthorn in the last round as well. Prior to their recent loss of form I would have said they were a big chance at home against anyone but hard to see them beating Port & Brisbane and no chance against Geelong in Geelong.

Thanks @Nascent It's interesting all the GC prospects this year which was highlighted by their form for the winning Allies U18 team (a couple of good Tasmanians too). They currently have picks 7, 26, 27, 43, 54, 61, 63, 67, 79 totalling 3,816 points. They'll definitely want to trade out Pick 7 (or whatever it is depending on results for the rest of the season). There must be some prospect of Melbourne doing something with our 2nd to 4th picks (currently 15, 22, 33, but hopefully 18, 22, 36 😀) to trade up for that pick and then either use it or combine it with the Freo pick (4 or 5?) to trade even higher.

I agree. I wasn't saying we should fear any of those teams. I was responding to the proposition that somehow it would have been better for Adelaide to beat GWS just to keep Essendon out of the 8 with 6 rounds to go. My thoughts about teams winning and losing are based on what's better for Melbourne's prospects, not hatred for other individual teams.

A fantastic win by GWS tonight. I love everything about this side (except of course when they beat Melbourne). Others have posted that Adelaide winning would have been good because after a loss they'll suddenly be wound up and come to play next week. I see it the other way. If anything a loss at home is going to deflate them and demotivate them. In reality they'll come to play regardless of tonight's result and the loss will make it virtually impossible for them to overtake Melbourne even if they win next week.

Don't understand this thinking. We want Essendon in the Final 8 because they're less of a threat than GWS, Carlton, Adelaide, Gold Coast (possibly), Sydney & Richmond.

People were chearing for the Giants because Adelaide had a much better percentage than GWS. Basically impossible to see how GWS will end with a better percentage than Melbourne, whereas Adelaide there is some (remote) chance. Also, if Adelaide beat Melbourne it will be positive for Adelaide's percentage, negative for Melbourne's which will tighten things up, and it will be an 8-point game. I wanted Essendon to beat Geelong because there was more chance of G finishing ahead of Melbourne than Essendon because of that undeserved draw against the Swans. Having said that, if Geelong was going to win I'm glad it was a big win as they've seriously damaged Essendon's already poor percentage. Geelong's percentage is irrelevant to Melbourne.

Buddy's apparently a week-to-week proposition but assuming he isn't significantly injured he'll definitely be playing R24 as it's likely his last game and at the SCG. They'll rest him against Adelaide in Adelaide the week before unless they're competing for Top 8 which I don't think they will be. I'm happy for Buddy to be playing because IMO they're a worse team with him in than out. I don't think they're resting any players. 3 of 7 injured, Junior Rioli out for personal reasons, the other 3 omissions are Quinton Narkle, Ryan Burton & Sam Hayes. I do agree though that its brave to drop any players when you already have 4 outs. Surprised particularly that Burton is out given Trent McKenzies' injury. This whole holding the ball/illegal disposal thing is a lottery. Half the time they say if the ball comes out in a tackle it's illegal disposal, the other half that's its been knocked out so play on. Almost an arbitrary call. They gave Treloar about as minute to spin a full 360 and choose the best handball option for the opening goal. I agree also some of these flick passes the Bulldogs specialise in are very doubtful.

Well, I'd take a draw ahead of a loss but we definitely don't want a draw as it negates the advantage of having a significantly higher percentage than all the teams below us. Win it and we are almost certainly Top 4. Lose it and we are still likely Top 4 given the Dogs loss last night. I think I may have finally matured slightly. I'm very unhappy after a loss but I definitely don't dwell on it and I get full value enjoyment after the wins. Shows the SEN guys have absolutely no idea. Firstly, just because Grundy gets dropped (or rested?) doesn't mean he was sold a crock by Melbourne. He's not a 1st year player, he knows how it works. Secondly, at this stage he's not playing this week. That's all. Far too early to come to any long-term conclusions. As to King saying it's on the cusp of season end, that's BS. 7 rounds to go. I seem to recall BBB didn't come back into the side until Round 20 in our Premiership Year. Agreed. And he hasn't been sent back to the VFL (yet). Casey have a bye and Grundy may be brought straight back in against Adelaide without even playing for Casey.

Why would we want Rory Lobb? He turned 30 in February this yearand has failed as a forward. Grundy hasn't worked as a forward option this year but he's still a high level ruck (unlike Lobb) and is 14 months younger. Definitely that's partly why we brought Grundy in. He's 2 yrs 4 mths younger than Max. Who knows how much longer Max will be playing for? Disagree. Grundy hasn't worked as a forward for us so far. He probably hasn't been demoted long-term and when he plays for Melbourne again it will be combined ruck/forward so he needs to keep doing both. Also, Casey have both Schache & Jefferson up forward and it's particularly important that they keep developing (especially Jefferson). Scache is not far away from senior selection IMO. Casey aren't playing this week and Grundy may not even get to play for them!

At this stage, all that Melbourne has done is rest Grundy for a week (Casey have the bye) and boosted our forward line (JVR to ruck up forward). Far too early to read anything into it long-term, but I guess that's what journalists are paid to do. In particular I don't listen to anything Damian Barrett says ever.

(Obviously) a great result for Melbourne tonight. I definitely want Essendon & GWS to win this weekend but don't think it will happen. Yes, Essendon are currently above Geelong but from a Melbourne perspective they're basically equal as I can't see Essendon's percentage getting above Melbourne's and Geelong's percentage is irreleant with the draw against the Swans. Why oh why couldn't the Swans have won that one as they should have?

After tonight's WB loss I reckon we would likely scrape into the Top 4 with 4 wins out of 7 for the rest of the H&A given our percentage, and in realility I think we'll win 5 or 6. If we're talking about games that will influence who makes the 8 and positions within the 8, I'd say nearly every game should be included at the moment. I predict the 8th team this year will have a 12-11 record and on that basis 15 teams can technically still make it, so probably 85% of games are relevant at this sage. The only irrelevant game this weekend is North Vs Hawthorn. You would expect that 85% to reduce steadily if some of those lower-positioned teams lose in coming weeks.

Not sure what a post about Melksham is doing under the Casey thread but I agree it should have been acknowledged by Melbourne. Importantly it means his children are now eligible to play for Mebourne under Father/Son, Father/Daughter rules 😀

I understand Collingwood are playing Fremantle next weekend but reckon these posts belong under the Run Home Thread.

Nothing new here. He's primarily a ruckman and they already had a top level ruckman. The big issue from Freo's perspective is that they basically gave up last year's 1st round pick and this year's 1st & 2nd round picks to get him. I assume this was based on the expectation that they would improve in 2023 and possibly make Top 4. I don't think they'll finish Bottom 4 but after last weekend's loss could definitely be as low as Bottom 6.

JVR had a quiet one last week in a pretty easy win. I'm not sure I'd be bringing him in on that basis. I think Shache deserves another chance but who goes out? And spent the next week congratulating themselves so much that they didn't turn up against Geelong the week after. I think we all recognise that Kossie had a poor game last week and is out of form currently but I think this sort of cheap shot is unworthy of a true Melbourne supporter.

Who gives a FF what Buckley thinks? We'll see about the Top 4 but the chances of Melbourne missing the Top 8 are about 100/1. One thing we'll know is that if a footy 'expert' gets their predictions right we'll never hear the end of it, but if they get it wrong they'll move on and hope no-one notices. I predict the 8th team will have a 12-11 record and maybe 110% percentage. For Melbourne to finish worse than that we'd need a 2-5 run home and a 17% percentage drop.

I'm with you on David Warner. Anybody who announces in advance his ideal retirement plans pre-Ashes and then does little deserves to be dropped. What happened to shutting up and letting your bat do the talking! David Warner has laid out his ideal plan for retirement across Australian cricket’s three formats, the opener eyeing a hometown Sydney Test farewell in January. That would follow an exit from one-day cricket at the 50-over World Cup in November, before carrying on in the shortest form until the T20 World Cup in June 2024. Re Kozzie, I have mixed feelings. He hasn't reached the stage where he's an automatic selection. He should be in the side on his merits and he had 4 possessions on Saturday night. If Melbourne were playing North or Hawthorn this weekend I'd name him confident he could gain some form & confidence but not sure against Brisbane. The only issue is that Casey have the bye this weekend so he wouldn't be getting a game at a lower level.

Yes, fans are pretty good at re-writing history based on final outcomes. After 19 rounds in 2021 we were 3rd and not playing well. That all turned around with the GC win in Round 20 and from then everything turned to gold. If we'd lost to Geelong in Round 23 we would have been playing Port in Adelaide in a Qualifying and who knows? Agreed. Obviously Top 2 would have been great but finishing 4th and playing Collingwood at the MCG is the same as finishing 1st and playing Collingwood at the MCG. You don't decide who is relevant and a legitimate premiership chance with 6 rounds of the season to go. Also whether it's an 8-point game remaims to be seen. You'll only know that with the benefit of hindsight. One thing we do know and that is the Brisbane & Melbourne ladder positions won't change next week. I'd say it's an important game to win because it will help us in our attempts to finish Top 4 at season end. You could argue (again we won'y know til season's end) that it might be better to lose as finishing 4th and playing Colingwood would arguably be better than finishing 3rd and playing Port. Of course all that depends on what happens in the last 7 rounds. We definitely won't be finishing Top 2 unfortunately.