Sydney_Demon

BBB & TMac are both contracted til the end of 2024 so I imagine won't retire unless they're given the appropriate financial encouragement to do so. Given their respective ages I can't imagine any other club would be interested in doing a trade this year. I agree that Melksham will likely retire, Hibbo's position will be dependent on form & fitness status (given his chronic achilles issues) but on current form he might get another year. That leaves only 3 players on our current list (forgetting rookies for the moment): JJ, Taj & Dunstan. I'd like to think all could get traded rather than delisted but am hoping we keep both JJ & Taj. We have 2 uncontracted A rookies & 2 uncontracted B rookes. I think Deakyn Smith has shown enough to remain on the list, Kye Turner hasn't played much and is out injured it seems long-term so is more likely than not to be delisted, Andy Moniz-Wakefield I think will bre retained and I haven't seen enough of Kyah Farris-White to know how he's progressing. I subscribe to the Tradeies podcast. They had a very interesting take yesterday on Adam Tomlinson's position and reckons he's likely to be in a tradeable position this year. Their view was that his contract value made it difficult to trade him last year but that changes now with only 1 year to run on his contract. As I have posted before I also reckon it would be in Harmes and the Club's best interests for him to be traded this year a year before his contract expires. So in a perfect world I'd like to see Tomlinson & Harmes traded a year ahead of contract expiry, TMac & BBB retiring early, JJ & Taj re-contracted, Hibbo given another year, Dunstan traded, Melksham retired. BBB & TMac could still have something to offer and obviously it wouldn't make any sense for them to be encouraged to retire just to free up list spots if Melbourne had to pay out their full contract value (although that I suppose depends on current & future cap space.

Obviously the Club wants more noise from our supporters. I assume everyone's seen the following:

On current form Hibbo might get another year which, assuming both Taj & JJ get extended, would only leave us with 1 spot which doesn't work. We'll have 4 A rookie spots. Could Hibbo be offered a rookie contract? As I've posted before, Harmes would probably still have value as a pre-FA trade. Schache? If he doesn't get any AFL time for the rest of the year would he be looking to be traded early? If he shows good form for Casey I would imagine there'd be some interest (but I imagine we'd like to keep him with BBB & TMac finishing up next year). Talking about BBB & TMac, they could retire early if given the right incentives. Again, we's probably like to keep TMac for 2024 if injuries aren't a concern but that depends on how the forward line functions for the rest of the year. We need to find a way of playing the fringe players (pick best team for Geelong but then some rotations afterwards) to get some clarity going forwards. A lot of unknowns at this stage.

I disagree. We should be doing all we can to keep him. He should be getting opportunities. For instance, definitely always pick him ahead of Harmes.

What about JJ?

@WheeloRatings now has us finishing 3rd, up from 4th, and our Premiership favouritism has increased as well: https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_simulations.html The Squiggle Aggregate also has us up to 3rd: https://squiggle.com.au/ladder/ 2nd or 3rd doesn't matter as long as the other side is Collingwood, 2nd important if we're competing with Port Adelaide for 2nd/3rd.

Jimmy Munro 8 disposals, 5 tackles. Gee, Casey have missed him and Dunstan.

Free kicks Collingwood 5, Casey 0. Nothing unexpected 🙁

And someone in for the Nut as sub. Hopefully JJ. Yes, the injury video/list comes out Tuesdays, so this list is 5 days out-of-date. BBB & Disco will be on next week's list (and hopefully no new additions on top of them). Posters have been a bit quick to write BBB off imv. Let's see what the diagnosis is. We have a bye next week for both AFL & VFL, so maybe he only misses one game.

I love Jimmy Munro and imo he's the most important Casey player has. He has been sorely missed in recent times. His attributes make him a fanrastic VFL player, but don't necessarily translate well to AFL. I'm with you on Sestan. He's a natural footballer and I was glad to see his rookie contract extended to the end of 2024. Given he didn't come through the elite junior programs that others did, he has most to benefit from being in an AFL Program. He was selected from nowhere and I reckon it's already shown to be a bit of astute drafting.

I suspect the main reason for the short odds is the number of punters who got over-excited and jumped on them when they went on a 5-game winning streak to go up 5-3. I agree with you about Chris Scott. The only threat to Geelong this year? Are you serious? Let's say they get on a roll and go 9-2 for the rest of the year and finish 5th. They still have to win 4 games, at least one of them interstate. It isn't going to happen. Last year they went on their roll after being 5-4, had a couple of close games which they won, were gifted 4 games playing North & West Coast twice, and won after being Minor Premiers. Fans were saying the same thing abour Richmond last year. They won their 3 Premierships from 3rd after finishing off all those H&A seasons strongly, won their last 4 H&A games on 2022, last 3 massively. They dropped out mith an unlucky 2 point loss to Brrisbane in an Elimination Final. The point here is Top 4 is almost a necessity. In fact since 2000, 22 of 23 Premiers finished Top 3 with 1 side winning from 7th. Geelong had a very soft run home last year from a higher ladder position. They have a very tough run home this year (basically, because they were 2022 Premiers a tougher draw than they received for finishing 4th in 2021). I think their injury problems are now largely behind them. Where they were fortunate last year was their narrow win in the Qualifying Final. It would have been much harder to win 3 on the trot if they'd lost. They got a soft win against Brisbane when the latter were worn out from excessive masturbation celebrating their lucky win against Melbourne, and then an exhausted Swans who had had 2 very tough Finals wins against Melbourne & Colingwood. You could argue Melbourne had a similar sequence of soft Finals games in 2021. I agree Collingwood are well-placed this year, with Port Adelaide (highly likely) & Brisbane (still very likely) to be Top 4. Back to your earlier point. imo Geelong are not the only threat to Collingwood’s flag this year, in fact are not a threat at all. I'm happy to revisit that view if Geelong miraculously finish Top 4 (which they won't).

Geelong are now 8/1 for the Premiership (paying $9) after Brisbane lost today. They can't finish Top 4 (would need to win 10 of 11) and definitely need to win 6 of 11 (possibly 7) to get into the 8. They play Port Adelaide in Adelaide next week and a home game against Melbourne after the bye. Are still to play Collingwood at the MCG, Brisbane in Brisbane. Plus Port Adelaide for the 2nd time in Geelong. I'm clearly missing something here. How can they be so short?

Surely there's no excuse for a 122 point loss to a team that previously wasn't even in the 8. West Coast's current percentage is 51.4%. I remember 1981 when Melbourne won only 1 game but we at least had a percentage of 63.5%. I reckon Casey would have been more competitive than West Coast today. Adelaide's percentage went from 105.2% to 116.5%. It's beyond a joke. Whichever 6 teams get to play them twice this year have arguably been unfairly advantaged.

I'd probably prefer to finish 4th than 3rd. Close to as big a chance beating Collingwood on the MCG as Brisbane or Port away. It's a no-brainer you want to finish Top 4 no matter who you're playing. Finish 3rd and there's still a good chance of beating Port in Adelaide, then a Prelim at the MCG, and Grand Final (possibly although unlikely even against an Interstate Team). You lose a Qualifying and there's still that 2nd chance, a Home Semi against the 6th or 7th team. Finish 5th and you need to win all 4 games, including an Interstate Away Semi, and another Away Prelim. Basically we're comparing winning 3 games, at least one and possibly 2 of which are at Home against winning 4 with the only Home Game being the Elimination Final. I disagree entirely. I'd prefer we win the game because we need the win. Anything that helps us achieve that I'll gratefully accept. You can afford to be noble when you're 4 games clear on top of the ladder.

I am I right in assuming because Casey are playing tomorrow they've named a side that also includes players that might not be playing, assuming some players will be held over as emergencies for Melbourne's Monday game? The fact that Smith & Tomlinson haven't breen named for Casey would indicate they're staying in the Melbourne side with Hibberd coming in for Bowey. Who replaces Harmes as sub? Hopefully Jordon, despite being named for Casey.

I think they'll make the Top 4 but disagree with you about the soft draw. They should thrash WCE in Brisbane R17 but I can't see them having big percentage boosters in too many other games. The have Away games against Melbourne (at the MCG), Collingwood (Marvel !?) & Fremantle. They play St Kilda twice (H&A) and St Kilda don't concede big scores. They also are playing Gold Coast away. They'll have to win more games than Melbourne to finish above us.

I agree. I'm still hoping we keep JJ on our list (even it it means we have to trade Harmes as a pre-agent). Can someone explain how the draft works? I thought each club had to pick a minimum of 3 players each year but don't know whether that includes rookies & traded picks. i.e. there's 92 picks in 2023 which is 5 rounds for each plus 2 Special Acceptance picks for North Melbourne (which they traded). These were the provisional picks based on 2022 finishing order: https://www.draftguru.com.au/years/2023/provisional-draft-order I assume that that 92 would be expanded further to cover any compensation picks for free agents changing clubs this year. Geelong only has 2 picks (18, 92) as they've future-traded picks 37, 56 & 74. Have they effectively already met their 2023 obligations through those trades, or would they have to use 18, 92 and trade in a rookie? Or maybe 18 and 2 rookies?

Maybe it's a bit early to be saying this but I reckon that Blake Howes at Pick 39 in the same (2021) draft will prove to be even more of a steal.

Overall I'd agree it was better from a Melbourne perspective for Port to win last night. OK, it makes it hard for Melbourne to finish Top 2 but it definitely makes it easier to finish Top 4, and it's virtually impossible to win from outside the Top 4. Port in Adelaide in a Qualifying or Prelim would be challenging but not impossible (refer 2021). Also, it might be the case where Port finishes top and Melbourne avoids them in a Qualifying. Interestingly, both Port (as you'd expect) & Melbournes' Sportsbet Premiership odds reduced (from 6.5 to 5.5 & 6 to 5.5 respectively) after last night's game. Anyway, a long way to go!

Fair enough. I just stated the facts. You were the one who said we struggled to beat Carlton (did you say we should have won by more? Sorry I missed that bit), and I was just responding to your comment on that particular game. I didn't state that we should have won the Port game. Sorry, was I supposed to say that we should have lost that game by more? My apologies.

Both JJ & Woey played for Casey last week. Bowey is out of the 22, Harmes out as Sub. Hibberd will definitely be back for Bowey. So there will be change for Harmes. It coud be to the 22 with one of the current 22 dropped to Sub (or out of the side) or more likely to the Sub. It's a valid discussion but I agree that JJ should be ahead of Woewodin in the pecking order. Obviously it will be harder without Oliver. I don't think we struggled to beat Carlton. We won by 17 points and were never going to lose. It should have been at least 6 goals with anything remotely resembling straight kicking. We should have beaten Fremantle. Neither of these sides are literal trash compared to Collingwood, worse teams (especially Carlton) but not that much worse. We lost to Port by 4 points and I would argue Port are in better form currently than Collingwood. It will be a competitive game on Monday.

Just made the mistake of flicking through Wednesday's Footy Classified. Awful. Match Preview of Carlton vs Essendon. Rightly they criticised Carlton's slow ball play against Melbourne. Then they comment about how wonderful Essendon's attacking play was and conclude that it will be an easy Essendon win. Essendon had a lucky 6 point win against the 2nd worst team in the comp. I'm not saying Carlton will win but where's the recognition of Essendon's poor perfornance. Then Melbourne vs Collingwood. Melbourne's poor conversion vs Colingwood's free-flowing game (against West Coast Eagles!). Conclusion: an easy win to the best team in the comp. So superficial. Don't do a preview unless you're going to do it properly!

I Agree DubDee. Taking a short-term view clearly it would have been good to see Sydney win but this will definitely make it harder for Sydney to be playing to make the 8 in R24. St Kilda won the game but benefitted from a ridiculous 50-metre penalty at a crucial time. Sydney were missing Mills, Parker, both McCartins, Logan McDonald, Sam Reid. Clearly both Rampe & Amartey were underdone but were rushed back because the Swans are missing so many players. I shouldn't single out individual players but guys like Lewis Melican aren't AFL standard. Aaron Francis was absolutely dreadful. In short, Melbourne shouldn't be worried about St Kilda. Currently rated a 30/1 chance to win the AFL Premiership by Sportsbet. If we see them as a threat then we are in serious trouble.

They kicked 10.1 from set shots, and 15 goals from 41 Inside 50s. It was just one of those days. You win 99 pout of 100 games with the amount of posession we had that day. The Footy Shows were pretty ordinary back in the day. Wide World of Sports with Lou Richards and Jack Dyer was hardly known for it's in-deppth analysis. About on par with the current Channel 9 Sunday show which is a waste of space. I quite like the AFL Round So Far on Sundays. Kane Cornes with Riley Beveridge. Footy Classified is definitely better on Mondays than Wednesdays. I can't watch anything with Eddie McGuire. A man who is so fond of his own opinion without any justification for being so. And his Collingwood bias is unbearable. Also Damien Barrett is on and I wear it as a badge of honour that I never watch or listen to anything he's involved with. The most superficial 'journalist' around imo (apart from Nathan Brown who is just a gambling promoter).

No, the joke is the ridiculous beat-up/pile-on on Fritsch on this non-issue. He has form? I recall one situation last year where he failed to handball on to Petracca in the goal square and was run down from behind so a certain goal was missed. Even then he was about 5m out and clearly didn't feel the pressure from behind. And this [censored] about others being rude about Fritta's skills. Seriously? Is that what we are doing? No, what we are doing if anything is the opposite. Fritsch had a kick for goal to an unguarded goal sqare that was well within his capabilities, or an alternative under-pressure high-risk handball. If both Fritsch and Chandler had been unmarked I would probably concur with the criticism, but if that was the case it would still probably have been a better option to waltz into the goal square and kick the goal rather than handball it. It's not the Fritsch supporters who are making stuff up here. It seems to me that it's his detractors re-writing the facts to fit the existing (false) narrative!