Sydney_Demon

David Schwarz?

I'm not saying those odds are correct. I stated them because simple mathematics which anyone can understand produces the numbers. It beats sticking your finger up in the air and taking a guess: 5th to 8th have to win 4 games in a row: 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/16 or 6.25% 1st to 4th win 3 games in a row: 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/8 or lose the 1st then 3 games in a row: 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/16. 1/8 + 1/16 = 3/16 or 18.75% It overstate the odds of lower teams winning (as you've said). Wheelo's odds make more sense to me. What both show is that it's very difficult to win from 5th or below because you have to win 4 matches. A sample of 11 years is tiny but putting that aside for the moment, every year there are 2 semi-finals, featuring one losing qualifying finalist and 1 winning elimination finalist. There have been 22 games. The losing qualifying finalist would be favourites most times, but even assuming say a 30% chance of the lower team winning (let alone 50%) that produces 6.6 (7 rounded up) winners. So the numbers you have quoted don't surprise me. That doesn't equate to winning a premiership. It means you've won the first 2 of 4 games (the easiest 2 in reality). I'm not saying statistics are infallible. Obviously some teams finishing 5th to 8th are better than others. Some teams finishing 2nd are worse than others (or have injury concerns). Playing home/away finals comes into it so it depends which teams from which State finish where and who they play. Top 4 sides going out in straight sets would be expected to be pretty common (as there's 4 teams in this category every year, 2 of them lose qualifiers, and play in semis where they can potentially go out even as favourites). In summary, anyone can win who makes the finals, just like any horse can win that's entered in a race. The reality is in the past 23 years there have been 8 winners who were minor premiers, 7 winners from 2nd, 7 winners from 3rd, 1 from 7th. Lots of lower teams gave made prelims, even grand finals (most recently Western Bulldogs in 2021) but the evidence/statistical analysis s strongly support the fact that a Top 4 finish is pretty much crucial.

https://www.google.com/search?q=loretta+skit+life+of+brian&rlz=1C1UEAD_en-GBAU987AU987&oq=loretta+skit+life+of+brian&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i22i30.12160j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:81dd24a9,vid:jlo7YZW8vPA

i'm hoping @WheeloRatings is on the money: https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_simulations.html He's saying 75% chance of Melbourne staying in Top 4 and a 2 game gap to Western Bulldogs so we can afford to lose an extra game. And that we're Premiership favourites 😀.

I'm envious. I was born in 1960, too young to remember the years up to '64. Started actively following the team around 1969, so 18 years of misery pretty much including the horrible end to 1976. 4 wooden spoons in 13 years (1969-1981). 2021 was totally surreal because by then I'd assumed we'd never win a premiership (I'm sure doggies supporters felt the same in 2016). It does give you a bit of perspective which is why I get so annoyed with the negativity sometimes expressed by demonlanders.

I'm totally with you Rab. That leaves 8 clubs in the mix at this stage for the Top 4 (including Fremantle). But I would say that's not what's going to be driving different clubs' efforts. It will be all about making finals. I actually want Gold Coast & Geelong (apart from Round 15) to get on a roll to cause some damage to fellow Top 4 teams.

Love your positivity 58er! I agree with you about Judd McVee especially. He has been a revelation. He's seems to have so much time, makes great decisions under pressure, and has elite skills. I watched most Casey games last year and didn't see this coming. He's probably proof that different types of players with attributes that make you an AFL player don't necessarily star at VFL level where those skills aren't so crucial. I also agree that JVR's game this week was a big step up.

@WheeloRatings has premiership odds for each ladder position as: 1: 31% 2: 24% 3: 17% 4: 14% 5: 5% 6: 4% 7: 3% 8: 2% Assuming no home ground advantage, each team has equal ability, etc. etc. (i.e. a 50/50 chance for each game) the odds are 18.75% for positions 1-4, 6.25% for positions 5-8. I know Western Bulldogs came from 7th in 2016, but for 22 of the past 23 years (basically the current finals system) the winner has come from the top 3. Whichever way you look at it it's indisputable that there's a huge difference between 4th & 5th. I know there's been a lot of rubbish written over the past 2 years that Richmond can win from anywhere and the same thinking this year for Geelong. Maybe they're exceptional teams but any team from outside the Top 4 has the odds stacked against it.

Sorry 58er. I was getting a bit ahead of myself. St Kilda would need to beat Richmond in R14 to get a game clear. So they need to win the next 2 weeks and we need to lose against Collingwood. I agree St Kilda are no certainty against either Sydney or Richmond. I don't see St Kilda as our biggest threat long-term.

Why only these 5 Clubs? Essendon & Western Bulldogs are above Geelong & Fremantle. And in addition to Western Bulldogs we have beaten 7 other teams. On the positive side the losses against Brisbane & Port were interstate, and we are yet to play Brisbane at the MCG. We don't play Fremantle & Port again. So we play 3 games against the sides you are concerned with. The other 8 are of equal concern to me. Every game is worth 4 points.

Well, this doesn't exactly explain the difference betwen an 8-point game as it's meant commonly and a 4-point game, in the sense that your example above applies to every game. 8-point games imo can really only be between 2 teams legitimately competing for ladder position. We'll only know in hindsight which games were 8-point games. If Collingwood finish ahead of us despite losing on KB it won't be an 8-point game 😀 .

i'm not sure why you're struggling with this. Technically you're correct but no-one is meaning that one team actually gets 8 points by winning the game. As you are aware, in your scenario, the 2 outcomes (assuming no draw) are Team 34, Opponent 30 or Team 30, Opponent 34. There's an 8-point difference here, +4 vs -4 (the -4 is the missed opportunity if you like). It was important in 2021 that our losses generally were against lower teams because although we missed the 4 points for a win it didn't affect our finishing position like it would have for a loss against a team we were actually competing for ladder position with (4-point game vs 8-point game).

I wouldn't say incredible. We should be 10-2 (bad kicking meant we lost against Port & Fremantle). Instead we're 8-4 and vulnerable. The next 2 games are important. If we win 1 or both (Collingwood, Geelong) we'll be well-placed. I do agree that it's ridiculous writing us off at this stage. We thrashed them in R23 last year in Brisbane when they had everything to play for. Are they that much better this year? I think their finals performances last year were ridiculously overrated. Beat Richmond by 2 points at home in an elimination final, got lucky against Melbourne in a semi-final (the game should have been over at half-time), and got annihilated by Geelong in a prelim. I'd put it another way. If they don't finish Top 2 they're absolutely no chance. If they do finish Top 2 they're a small chance but only if they win their qualifying final. The chances of them playing Port in the GF are minimal. Pretty good in 2016. Beat Port away in a 2021 prelim and made the GF from 5th. Admittedly they gave up a big quarter time against Freo in an eliimination final last year but that game was in Perth, and it was hardly a capitulation. They do get runs of goals against them from opposition sides but that's the way they play.

Thanks @Lucifers Hero. Brilliant work. I posted earlier about Geelong's run home. I think it's actually them, rather than the Suns that will potentially have the biggest impact on the Top 8. They actually play all of Collingwood, Port (twice) & Brisbane. I hope they do get on a roll (obviously not until after we play them in R15), but given they play all these teams away I think it's unlikely. The Suns have 5 home games left and 3 of them are against Collingwood, St Kilda & Brisbane so I hope they also get on a roll. They are very hard to beat at home this year. Back to Geelong. Compare last year to this. Same result in R12, a win against Western Bulldogs. The last 10 games they had last year were against West Coast (twice), Richmond, North, Melbourne (at home as always), Carlton, Port (away), Western Bulldogs, St Kilda & Gold Coast. So 3 gifted games, with probably only the games against Melbourne & Port as danger games. Melbourne weren't traveling well, Port weren't playing like they are this year... and Geelong are 2 games & 10% percentage worse than they were last year. Anyway, I hope I'm wrong and they do do some damage after Round 15 (but definitely not before). I think you're being a little bit optimistic re Melbourne's run home. Yes, a relatively easy run home, but if we drop both games against Collingwood and Geelong over the nest 2 rounds we will only be able to drop 1 more game for the rest of the season or we miss Top 4. Win 1 of those and we're looking pretty good.

12 wins might get a team into the 8 as long as they have a decent percentage. Geelong will probably make it with that many wins as their current percentage is 118.9%, 13 will definitely get you in. Similarly I think 16 wins would get Geelong, Brisbane or Melbourne in to the Top 4 given their respective percentages, 17 in general. I think your take is pretty negative. At this stage I think the only game where Melbourne's opposition would be favourites is KB. Geelong game 50/50. Games against St Kilda, Brisbane & Adelaide we will be favourites. I'm not saying we definitely win them all, but 14 9 is definitely a worst case scenario.

Yes, we got thrashed by Port Adelaide by 4 points in Adelaide. Also got blown away by 11 points by Brisbane in Brisbane in Round 2 (to be fair I know the final score flattered us greatly, but the point is we came back despite the demoralisation of losing our Captain to what the players thought was a season-ending injury early in the game). Let's see what happens against Collingwood but I see no evidence that we can't keep up with the best sides. A couple of disappointing close losses, yes, but nothing terminal hopefully. Well, according to @WheeloRatings we're a 73.8% chance of Top 4. If we finish Top 4 we are a very strong chance to make a Prelim given none of the 5th to 8th sides are MCG tenants. I really don't buy into the Geelong-thing. I would have said if they's lost yesterday they would have almost certainly missed the 8. Basically it's impossible to win from 5th or below (it's happened once in 23 years). 6 home games, 5 away games. Are yet to play Port in Adelaide, Brisbane in Brisbane, Collingwood at the MCG. Looking at their draw they have one easy game (R17 against North at home). 11 games, 8 of them against sides above them on the ladder (they play Port twice), also Sydney (in Sydney), Fremantle (at home) and North as previously mentioned. They need to win 7 of 11 to guarantee finals (they have a good percentages so could get in with 12 wins). I'm not totally writing them off but.... Paying $10 to win the Premiership. Ridiculously short odds. This isn't 2022 when they were gifted 4 games by getting to play both West Coast & North twice. So this is probably saying being on a good run of form going into the finals helps, and that it is hard to be dominant for a whole season. I've included where the teams finished at end of H&A in your table (which is a whole lot more relevant imo). 3 of the 6th teams (Richmond x 2, Hawthorn) had a reasonably modest improvement to 3rd and the other was Geelong last year. There's currently 1 game and percentage between 3rd & 6th. So what's this saying? You need to finish Top 4. So all the premiers were within striking distance of Top 4 after 11 or 12 rounds, and 9 of the 10 were in the Top 4 at the end of H&A. A sample of 10 is probably not statistically significant though (if it is you don't want to finish 4th, 5th, 6th or 8th 😀). I'm not sure about Brisbane. I accept they have improved this year but if they finish 3rd or 4th (likely) they'll have to win 2 Away Finals to make the Grand Final, which definitely isn't their strength.

Thanks @WheeloRatings for your clarifications on this and on The Run Home thread. Obviously ignoring any home ground advantage or other factors including team fatigue or the opposite (basically assuming 50% win odds for every team for every game) would produce premiership odds of 18.75% for Positions 1 to 4 and 6.75% for Teams 5-8, so your rankings including all factors make sense. I would assume the biggest variation factor would be higher ranked teams generally having higher team ratings. I have this very unscientific take on the fact that Teams 1, 2 & 3 have pretty much an equal split of premierships since 2000 (with Western Bulldogs being the outlier coming from 7th in 2016). Basically, the 4th team has a very tough series of games (typically against 1st, 5th, 2nd, 1st teams) , whereas 2nd/3rd teams typically play 2nd/3rd, 4th, 1st, a much easier run. The top team has an easier 1st game but then usually has to play a battle-hardened 2nd/3rd team in the Prelim and then the other 2nd/3rd team in the Grand Final (who has had ean easier Prelim against a lower-ranked team). If the 1st team does unexpectedly lose against the 4th they then have the same tough run the 4th team more typically has. I'm not sure how these possible paths play out in simulations but am assuming the fact that Melbourne is modelled to more likely finish 2nd or 3rd than 4th means they benefit compared to a team that has a higher prediction of finishing 4th. I'm also assuming Brisbane & Ports' premiership odds are increased by them having to play the Grand Final In Melbourne against a Melbourne-based team, especially as Collingwood & Melbourne are MCG co-tenants.

If Oliver gets up, then obviously he's ahead of Deakyn Smith!

I'm not quite sure what you mean. Yes, we only won 6 out of the last 12 H&A in 2022 but did finish 2nd. We thrashed Brisbane in Brisbane in Round 23 and on the balance of play should have beaten Collingwood by about 10 goals in Round 21. Out in straight sets against both the Swans & Brisbane but were well up early in both games. We basically had injuries that meant we were underdone and didn't finish off those games. Yes, we've been a bit patchy this year but unconvincing, sloppy & selfish seems a bit harsh. Melksham was out suspended yesterday. He did kick 2 goals from 12 possessions, no tackles, in a poor team performance against Werribee the week before, but I'd be surprised if he came in. I agree that Smith should get another week (although a stretch of 4 games is going a bit far imo). I think it's wrong to bring a player in and drop them the week later after one poor stat game as we did with both Schache and Laurie earier in the season. That hardly encourages team-first play. I accept your argument that structure is important but don't accept that having both Hibbo and Tomlinson in the side, presumedly because Bowey is out, will work. That wil negatively affect our structure imo. Hibbo in for Tommo, Deakyn Smith for Bowey, JJ in for Harmes.

I disagree entirely. Who cares that every other game has a red card? Irrelevant. Nearly every other country doesn't have compulsory and preferential voting. We do and are all the better for it. Don't change something that doesn't need fixing. What exactly is your argument for the red card? I assume that that will somehow change behaviour and punish the perpetrating team. Kossie got rightfully suspended earlier in the year which is what he deserved and it punished the team. The same will happen for De Goey and Colingwood (as it should). That is appropriate deterrent and means quick assessments on-field that are subsequently overturned won't have unjust consequences.

For me JJ should be in Melbourne's side every week, preferably in the 22, but at least as sub. Giving the club the benefit of the doubt, maybe the idea was to give him a full game for Casey this week, rather than a partial game for Melbourne, and with Casey playing in Queensland and Melbourne playing at the MCG on Friday night this was the way to do it. I can't understand Melbourne putting Harmes ahead of JJ for so many reasons. Anyway, Harmes won't be playing this week.

I'm not sure what this is doing under the Casey thread, but I disagree with the assessment of Fritsch being selfish in this instance. The fact is he was under pressure, it would have been extremely hard to get a handball over the top to Chandler and there was an open goal square. I can understand Chandler being upset given his goalkicking woes of late, but for me Fritsch took the right option. Imv this whole Fritsch being selfish thing is a media beat-up. A couple of isolated instances. I just wish everyone would get off his back. What he brings to the team is crucial (thanks though to you for also acknowledging he is a class act). I agree with you about Pickett. We don't need him flying against our talls. He should be positioning himself to get the knock-downs.

I liked JVR's game but for me I'd be putting Bailey Humphrey ahead of him this week. I saw most of the Gold Coast/Adelaide game and this guy's going to be a genuine star. Apparently Melbourne tried to trade up to get him and from what I've seen I can understand why. I also love (but not from a Melbourne perspective) that he's committed to Gold Coast for another 4 years: https://www.afl.com.au/news/941129/show-of-faith-gold-coast-suns-lock-in-match-winning-teen-bailey-humphrey-on-new-deal

I'm surprised that we are ranked so highly in those team rankings. Having said that, I think that our losses to Port & Fremantle and the closeness of our game against Carlton were significantly due to poor goal kicking. Assuming a reversion to the mean I'm hoping that wil turn around! For me St Kilda are currently not trending well but will go ahead of us if they beat Sydney and we lose to Collingwood. Both those games are 50/50 I think. Our percentage is a big factor because we should be ahead of whoever finishes on the same number of wins as us at season's end. I agree with you that finishing 2nd would be brilliant as we would be playing either Port or Brisbane in Melbourne and then if we win Port or Brisbane again in a Prelim. Also I don't think Brisbane or Port are unbeatable away in a Qualifying or Preliminary Final.

I agree with you. One week is reasonable for Harmes. For me that's fairly cut-and-dry (unlike the Hunter decision which was ridiculous imo). DeGoey has to be 3 weeks minumum. He basically ran past the ball, lined his opponent up and concussed him. The lack of West Coast reaction at the time pretty much shows where that Club is at. Re DeGoey, I like Craig McCrae and the way me backs his players but to come out like he did and say: “It’s split seconds, isn’t it?” “Do I go in and tackle, do I bump, or smother? These happen so many times in a game." Yes, there are situations like that but that isn't what happened with DeGoey.