Sydney_Demon

I heard about this on today's Tradies Podcast: https://australian-podcasts.com/podcast/tradies I posted this a few days back in the Welcome to Demonland James Jordan Topic: I think you have to use a minimum 3 draft picks each year. We definitely won't be using the 4 top picks we have in 2023 and might package some lower picks to get Kynan Brown (trade down for points?) but I guess potentially picking a high draft mid isn't going to help JJ's prospects. But of course by the time of the draft JJ will have already signed on (or not) and it depends on likely interest from other clubs (which I think will be quite strong). As I've posted elsewhere, I'd like to see JJ picked ahead of James Harmes, and if JJ signs on we could trade Harmes out a year ahead of free agency. There's 14 rounds to go so a lot of water to pass under the bridge but given Harmes is an unrestricted free agent next year we should trade him out this year, or if he is a required player extend his contract at season end (particularly if JJ leaves). He has value as a trade now but in another 12 months he'll be 29 (October 2024) and we'll have no negotiating power given his UFA status.

I agree with you about the betting market except I think it got it badly wrong with the Swans-Fremantle game (and those Demonlanders who pointed this out pre-match I hope you made some money). The line of course is more meaningful than the odds as the odds are always understated since they include betting agencys' profit margins (roughly 5% in a 2-horse race). I think we are all guilty of simply extrapolating early leads into massive wins and this simply isn't how it works. There's always going to be reversion to the mean. This of course works in both directions. Similarly it's so easy to look at poor results or great wins and say that is representative of how the team is travelling whereas in reality it's just one game and is not necessarily representative of anything. Form is always going to fluctuate, both for Melbourne and whoever their opponent is.

Thanks for your continuing excellent work on the podcast Andy, George & binman. Essential listening for the dedicated Demons fan. I'm interested in getting your views on how & where Salem is going to be slotted into the side after be completes his conditioning playing for Casey. Also, your thoughts on JJ's game as sub against Hawthorn and his position in the side for the remainder of the season. Similarly do you think there's a role for James Harmes going forwards and, if not, do you see merit in him being traded out a year ahead of free agency? Or should we keep him as depth?

I respect people's right to complain. I also love the information posters bring to this site, and the trouble posters go to to source that information. I don't expect everyone to have the same take on everything that has happened during the game. It's just sometimes I get frustrated that comments get thrown out there that IMO don't match reality. Things are never as bad as we think, nor as good. I don't cherish every moment (e.g. hard to cherish the first half of the Prelim agaimst West Coast in 2018) but I think it's good to put these poor moments into perspective (e.g. most of the 2018 season leading up to that match). Well, Petty had 8 possessions, 6 marks and kicked 2 goals in a half of footy. I'm not saying that conclusively proves he will make it as a forward but hardly evidence that he never will make it. Who knows what BBB would have done? If you like to think he would have kicked 10 that's your prerogative. Both JVR & Petty are works in progress. The fact that TMac was listed as an emergency ahead of BBB probably says something. It would appear that JVR & Petty are our preferred options at this stage. They both have upsides. I don't think anyone can legitimately make a claim right now that BBB/TMacs' best years are ahead of them. As others have posted, we now have 2 specialist wingers and it's actually impossible for both to star on any given day because you can't play down both wings simultaneously. Langdon is not going too have the year he had last year for that reason. Melbourne is a better side because we have Hunter & Langdon playing. One get's locked down and you have another option. Hunter's wing got used more 1st half, Langdon's the 2nd. Also, the stats don't recognise unrewarded running for either player but it's important for defensive pressure & attacking options. I think generally backs get a bad deal compared to forwards. What I think we all want is consistency. If anything, I would prefer backs being favoured because in the back frees paid to forwards result in sometimes soft/easy goals. The same applies to frees not paid against forwards. I agree with you about the 3rd Quarter. Hawthorn came out hard and had those 3 goals on the board before we had time to react. To our credit, that didn't become a 6 or 7 goal run and we re-grouped. Similarly, Hawthorn kicked the 1st goal of the last quarter but Melbourne then went on to kick the last 4 goals of the match. I didn't think Hawthorn were ordinary. They were outclassed but their pressure was generally very good. My view is that the era of regular 100 point wins is largely over. Even undermanned teams are well-coached and have structures in place to limit losses and in most games there are short stretches where the losing teams kick a few goals in a row. Dunstall was definitely better than last week, but I can't understand why any ex-player with obvious affiliations should be commenting on games involving those teams. Obviously that applies to Garry Lyon as well.

I reckon you're being a bit tough on him. He had 10 possessions and 210m gained. He's not a showy player. Just plays his role and contributes to team performance.

Yes, I agree with you. They should all be dropped. Langdon was particularly disappointing. Only 22 possessions, 8 marks, 1 goal and 306m gained.

FGS, Hawthorn kicked 7 goals and 3 of them were in about 3 minutes at the start of the 3rd Quarter. We won by 9 goals. Hawthorn played about as well as they could have. We drew with Hawthorn in our Premiership year. I'm amazed about the negativity. The main reason I'm surprised is I would have thought all of you would already have slit your wrists (and therefore not have been around to currently post on Demonland) somtime during the 11 year period we didn't make the finals (2007-17). I avoid going into Demonland following a loss because it would appear some have absolutely no perspective. Maybe I'll have to avoid going into the the site until we win another Premiership (but maybe not even then because we won't have played well enough or won by a sufficiently large margin).

Sorry layzie. I know you didn't say anything about tanking. There are just so many posters throwing comments in about West Coast (and Hawthorn) tanking and I couldn't resist throwing in my views. I should have done it as a separate post. I also recognise that of course you can assess players using all the factors you have listed. I just have no idea whether West Coast do or don't do that, or whether Melbourne do or don't (nor do you as you have admitted). I would assume this is something every club would do as a matter of course. You say its naive to think that their current predicament is just due to bad luck and/or bad management. Why is it naive? It's quite possible and surely just as likely as your theory. I'm sure just like Melbourne West Coast attempt to recruit the best mix of players they can to produce the results they want, and I don't accept that they choose flashier players just because they are flashier. I'm not saying their players don't have a tendency to be flashier than other teams, just that that's not the reason they selected them. I'd be amazed if it was. I'm no West Coast fan but it's interesting everyone piles on after the fact despite the reality that prior to the last few games of the 2021 season they had a fantastic record over many years, a record Melbourne would have been ecstatic to match.

I think you have to use a minimum 3 draft picks each year. We definitely won't be using the 4 top picks we have in 2023 and might package some lower picks to get Kynan Brown (trade down for points?) but I guess potentially picking a high draft mid isn't going to help JJ's prospects. But of course by the time of the draft JJ will have already signed on (or not) and it depends on likely interest from other clubs (which I think will be quite strong). As I've posted elsewhere, I'd like to see JJ picked ahead of James Harmes, and if JJ signs on we could trade Harmes out a year ahead of free agency.

I know I'm being extremely pedantic but in fact there will be 19 spots between the draft picks we get from Fremantle assuming North finish below Fremantle (a pretty safe assumption). This Special assistance pick comes in just below North's 2nd Round pick (which they traded to Adelaide). Ironically this extra pick was traded to Fremantle. So, based on Fremantle finishing 14th (where they are now) and Melbourne being Premiers, Melbourne's picks will be 5, 18, 24, 37, 91. Who knows how many father/son and academy selections push the higher picks down and pick 91 up? (not that we're likely to use our 5th round pick). I'm hoping we pick up Kynan Brown as a father/son. Not sure how high he will go. Go Swannies (for this week at least!).

And Richmond would have run Melbourne close if they'd kicked straight and Essendon beat us comprehensively. Either of these sides can still make the 8 (14 rounds to go). There's not much between any side in the comp apart from the bottom 3 (any maybe I should wait til later today before writing Hawthorn off). Agree entirely. Why are they still warning Clubs. I have no intel on this but the way it is at the moment coaches could be using this leniency to slow down the game at a crucial stage. Don't issue a warning. Just pay the free kick. And while they're at it, get rid of the centre bounce. It was ridiculous last week against Gold Coast. Despite for the preceding VFL Match the umpires taking centre bounces out on the wing, the centre square was still so soft for the AFL game the bounce was (even more than usually) severely compromised. I don't think we need the game to be affected by the ability (or otherwise) of umpires to bounce the ball. And the umpires shouldn't be selected partly on that skill either.

I'm not sure about this. Can you recruit for durability? Probably what's happening is a combination of bad luck with injuries to younger players and possibly older players being more prone to injury. What evidence is there that WC value flashy talent? And WC tanking? You don't tank by playing 2 competitive quarters and getting blown away in the other 2. The reality is with the sides WC are getting on the park you just don't win games. WC aren't a side who wins premierships and then finish down the ladder to get draft picks. Like the Swans they pretty much always finish Top 8, usually Top 4 or 5, and therefore never get top draft picks but are still extremely competitive. In retrospect giving away so much to get Tim Kelly was a mistake in 2019. In more recent times they finished 2021 poorly to finish 9th (lost last 4 games after being 7th) and then due to COVID/injuries haven't been able to put a decent side out since.

Sadly I agree given Sydney injuries with Tom McCartin out this week. A pity we're not playing Sydney again until the last round of the season when there's every chance they'll be at full-strength. Fair call but I think what's disappointing is how their senior players aren't contributing at present (except Jayden Hunt). I know Jack Darling got injured last night but his contributions when WC are struggling are particularly poor.

Probably indicates both that they've been lucky with lack of injuries to senior players and unprepared to play developing players in a successful side.

To be fair, he only joined us pre-2020 and at that stage was brought in to play wing and was then a preferred part of our backline in 2021 (until he did his ACL). He probably hasn't had too many opportunites but they didn't trial him up forward last year despite TMac being out injured. The fact that Petty who was in our preferred backline at the start of 2023 is being trialled ahead of him is also a pretty fair indication of where he is in the forward line pecking order.

Not sure about this. Petty has a lot of doubters up forward but has more of the build to play KPF than Turner. Still, a number of Demonlanders continue to put Tomlinson forward as an option despite no evidence that he can play there and I'd put Turner as an option ahead of Tommo. I actually think if you're going to go tall(ish) and mobile as an option up forward then Joel Smith might be worth trying.

The Club brought in Hunter to play wing so I think JJ would have got the message at that stage fairly loud & clear. Why would JJ be targetting a position he already had but lost to a specialist who has been a great success? It's interesting how this has played out. I reckon there was a chance JVR would have been rested this week but because of the suspension/appeals Goody has actually talked him and his position in the side up. Obviously you can't appeal successfully and then rest him from the team. If JVR doesn't have a great game then I don't think it matters ahainst Hawthorn but a different story in a week's time against Port. Re Chandler, clearly being picked and perservered with has worked. If he gets offered a decent contract extension and continues to get picked he has every incentive to stay. The same applies for JJ. I also agree with you about Kozzie. He was lucky to only get 2 weeks and the Club's messaging including not appealing was appropriate and again has worked given he's signed on til the end of 2027. There's been a huge number of naysayers about Petty's move forwards. Goody has been a bit non-committal about this to date but, now that he's actually talking up Petty's performances, hopefully it will lead to positive outcomes. If it doesn't then we still have time to change the mix! It was disgusting the way that Melbourne behaved towards Shane Woewodin. https://www.sen.com.au/news/2021/08/08/how-brownlow-medallists-shock-trade-to-collingwood-unfolded/ It's to Woewodin's credit that he's remained loyal to the Club, raised his son as a Melbourne supporter, and I'm optimistic that Taj will get a contract extension and be an important contributor to the Club over many years.

Excellent analysis Jaded. I totally agree with you re Spargo, and I was surprised he didn't play for Melbourne last week (but he will be better given the Casey game). I think he's crucial to our structure and his skills are elite. The issue seems to be with ground ball gets with Melbourne currently and given the positive Inside 50s against GC it would have been great to have him up forward improving delivery and conversion. JJ parked discussions regarding a new contract til later in the year which I can totally understand given his fringe ststus in the team. It will be interesting to see whether it's JJ or Harmes playing as sub in on Saturday. Harmes was good last week I thought when he came on but I actually would have liked him to play the whole game locking down Noah Anderson. That mid lockdown role is someting he excels at although I know Melbourne generally doesn't like going down that path because it affects structure/rotations. Having said that, I think we should be prioritising JJ ahead of Harmes. Harmes is a UFA in 2024 and turns 28 in October. IMO we should be trying to trade him this year as another club would probably be prepared to offer him 3 years and a guaranteed spot in their best 22. I also agree we need to sign Chandler, also Woewodin who is definitely much-improved.

So they aren't critical of JVR taking his eye off the ball momentarily. So maybe it's not as nuanced as I thought. It comes down to their view that a reasonable player would have foreseen that such action would almost inevitably result in a forceful blow to the head. I agree that that seems a ridiculous conclusion because this type of attempted spoil happens all the time.

Sorry, I'm not saying this isn't important in the context or how Australian Rules is played. What I was saying is that maybe, just maybe, a defining moment in the US Civil Rights Movement is marginally more important!!!

I agree with you. I'm still [censored] off that Lance Franklin only got a week in Round 1 where he unnecessarily bumped Sam Collins and left him dazed. Naturally the commentators referred to it as a hip and shoulder. The ball was about 10 metres away. https://www.google.com/search?q=lane+franklin+round+1+2023&rlz=1C1UEAD_en-GBAU987AU987&oq=lane+franklin+round+1+2023&aqs=chrome..69i57j33i160.8951j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:294d8f23,vid:B2QH_vjFsqQ I wasn't saying I agreed with the tribunal's interpretation. Personally I can't see how this was classified as striking. Surely rough conduct and a fine (at worst).

I'm not sure what you mean by being in good form? For Casey? I don't know how often he 's been tried up forward but he hasn't kicked a goal for Melbourne in 31 games. He was brought in as a wingman (that didn't work) and was a utility at GSW including playing 2nd ruck at some stage. Prior to joining Melbourne he kicked 35 goals in 140 games. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_Tomlinson Maybe he's being proposed as a KPF because he's tall & solidly built (194cm, 95kg) and can take a mark. He turns 30 this year and surely we have better options than trying to turn him into a forward. I know Harrison Petty has been written off as a forward already by some Demonlanders but there's scope and time for him (he's only 23). Whether Petty is better down back than up forward I guess will be revealed in the fullness of time. I'd prefer Joel Smith to Tomlinson as a forward option personally.

Brilliant. Thanks for that clarification. I'd like to think given Melbourne's current percentage that even though 140% is unlikely we'll finish significantly above 105% regardless of how many wins we have. I see from your website you have Melbourne finishing 2nd with 16.4 wins, a percentage of 130.2, a 69.5% percentage of Top 4 and a 94.7% chance of Top 8. I can live with that after Round 8!

I'd like to think I'm as passionate a Melbourne supporter as there is, but a Rosa Parks moment? FGS.

Well, he did mention it on AFL Daily this morning (right at the very end of the Podcast which probably shows where the AFL want this issue to sit in the overall scheme of things). He stated he supported the decision but thought it should be 1 rather than 2 weeks. He also said that there is a process and made the ridiculous comment that if you follow the process you'll end up with the result you want! The justification for the suspension seems to be that JVR took his eye off the ball. If he'd kept his eye on the ball obviously he wouldn't have had time to get back and attempt the spoil but that seems to be what he was expected to do. So I think its a bit more nuanced than he was attempting to play the ball so it shouldn't be a suspension.