Sydney_Demon

This game is 2 weeks away but I agree that it will be a challenge. I guess we'll know some time after 5 tonight about JVR. TMac isn't injured but unfortunately none of he, BBB, Tomlinson, Joel Smith will have a chance to push their claims for inclusion as Casey have a bye this weekend. In any case, from Goody's presser it sounds like Melbourne are committed to JVR & Petty up forward in the short term at least. One thing I will say is that imo Tomlinson is not an option. He plays in defence for Casey and has never shown he has anything to offer up forward.

Brilliant work Wheelo. Just a point of clarification. Are the simulation results showing the probabilities for Top 8/4 of any team with those number of wins or just the top team? e.g. is the probability of any team with 16 wins 73% to make Top 4 or is it a case of the 4th team having 16 wins and other teams with 16 wins and a lower percentage finishing out of the Top 4?

IM(humble)O there is absolutely no way that 14 and % will get us into the top 4. In recent seasons it has taken 15 wins and a good percentage (16 and poor percentage for Collingwood last year) and there's an extra game in 2023. Well it doesn't really matter what the thread says because posters have basically assumed we will be top 8 and changed the disussion to top 4/2 😀. I think 16 and a good percentage for top 4 and top 2 very hard to predict because it only takes a couple of sides to get on a roll. I'd say 19 or a number of sides on 18 with the highest percentage (naturally) getting through. I agree our ladder position is not truly reflective of our form but I also think it hasn't been a case of consistently poor opposition. Obviously the West Coast & North wins should be dismissed, but Gold Coast on the form they displayed on the weekend will be difficult for anyone to beat (especially at home) and we have already played Brisbane away. Interstate travel to Perth and Queensland is history and we only have to travel to Adelaide once (Port away in a fortnight, we play Adelaide at the MCG). Thanks for the great analysis. Maybe it's time to start deathriding Brisbane as a corollary to Fremantle.

There's another forum here on conspiracies. I think your post belongs there. I really don't believe the AFL are targetting Melbourne specifically. What I do think though is there are different standards for less prominent players and for recognised champions of long standing e.g. Lance Franklin. Yes. No doubt. I think they upgraded Kozzie's bump because of potential to caiuse serious injury. But in general I think this is as problem. Why should the level of impact matter? That is a random outcome beyond the control of the culprit. The AFL needs to change this component of the penalties handed down. I think front-on contact should be treated differently than spoils from behind but in general I agree with your analysis. There are clearly situations where the spoils are late and high but this was not a situation where he was trying to make his opponent earn the mark. He was genuinely trying to spoil. I agree the commentators over-reacted and were incorrect in their responses (apart from Jonathan Brown apparently) but I have no idea whether they contributed to the suspension.

IMV Kozzie only getting 2 weeks earlier this year was a pretty good result given the action he took which I think was pretty much unforgivable and I'm glad the Club didn't appeal it. I feel this is totally different. It was clumsy perhaps, no worse than that. Even the AFL website admits it was a genuine marking attempt. There's 100 attempts every game to spoil marks, and front-on contact of course deserves a free kick, but that should be the end of it. It shouldn't matter whether the opponent gets injured. That's purely luck. This should be appealed because it's sending the total wrong message to accept it. JVR did absolutely nothing wrong and it was a football action. Look at the 2 other incidents that incurred 1 week suspensions. Driving opponents heads into the ground appareently only deserves 1 week but accidentally connecting someone a glancing blow with your forearm when making a genuine attempt to spoli gets 2!

Just watched the Round So Far on the AFL website. Riley Beveridge makes an outrageous comment that JVR doesn't have his eyes on the ball and that theAFL would be looking to refer this straight to the tribunal. It was a clumsy spoiling attempt and clearly he was trying to spoil the ball: https://www.afl.com.au/video/920710/trsf-exclusive-vision-sheds-light-on-dees-free-kane-responds-to-dimma?videoId=920710&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1683383083001 And then they highlight the Ben King push that led to a Melbourne goal kick from thre square. Blurry vision from 100m away but they were very happy to make the call it wasn't deserving of a free kick!

No mate. I'm not the one making comments based on nothing. And I'm not expecting everyone to agree with me. I'll stick to responding to views expressed. I won't take the opportunity to insult you personally because I actually don't know anything about you as a person and I'm better than that. It appears you aren't but that's your issue, not mine. Night, night to you as well.

Given there are now 23 games, 12 might not be enough to finish top 8 of 18. I'd say 13. Not sure about your comment on percentage. Clearly if we finish with 12 wins our percentage would drop a lot from where we are now, but I agree we do have a healthy percetage after 8 games compared to nost others. Can't see how you can say that Melbourne, Brisbane, Collingwood, Geelong are miles ahead of the rest. Collingwood had arguably a lucky win against Adelaide last week and against Esendon the week before. We had a close win today, lost to Essendon and could have lost against Richmond if they'd kicked straight. Geelong were shaky earlier in the season and lost to Gold Coast. I would agree these 4 look best at the moment but a long way to go and definitely not miiles ahead.

Absolute BS. Half of his possessions went to the opposition or nowhere? Pulling words out of your backside and stating them with confidence doesn't make them correct. You're comparing Oliver with Cripps & Bont. Bont is a fantastic player but Oliver is twice the player thay Cripps is on his body of work over his career to date. One Brownlow doesn't make you a star, it means you played well for a year in a reasonable side and had no-one competing with you for votes. We've lost 2 games and there were extenuating circumstances in both. We beat Sydney when they were pretty much at full strength, unlike others. No side is looking invincible right now. I agree we have 15 to play and some are against some strong opposition but they are will all be as wary of us as we will be of them. Rubbish. Casey lost today in Queensland by 20 points to an unbeaten Gold Coast (6 Wins, 173.8%) but admittedly had a poor loss by a couple of goals to Richmond a few weeks back. Still 5-2, and a percentage of 137.1% is not too shabby. Today they were missing key midfielders Jimmy Munro & Luke Dunstan, Disco Turner a late out, TMac out with a sprained ankle.... Neither side need to be settled down. Plenty of time for that. Don't try to influence posters views by citing actual facts. What are you thinking of? No, from memory in 2016 no-one expected the Bulldogs to win that year or that it would be start of a dynasty. In any case after 2021 Melbourne finished 2nd before Finals. We are hardly showing signs of being a one-hit wonder. I'm not being complacent but maybe people shouldn't be overreacting. 6-2, percentage of 138.3%, travelled to Queensland twice, Adelaide, Perth in the first 8 weeks... Thanks for quoting the Inside 50s & Tackles differential. Shows it wasn't all bad. Oh, and I forgot. We won the match.

A total lack of pressure. Smith under no pressure kicks 15m over the head of a leading forward. 1 GC against 4 Casey players. GC player naturally takes the mark. What is going on?

Yes, it's looking a lot like the Richmond game in the sense that a lack of midfield pressure is allowing easy transition. Gold Coast are a seriously good VFL team and Casey have made too many skill errors

For me the issue is the lack of common sense. So the umpire makes a mistake in giving a free and deciding to call advantage. Why couldn't they see what we all saw, that there was no advantage, so bring it back.

Finally, due to a short throw-in Gold Coast are advantaged because it falls into the hands of their ruckman unopposed. They called the back earlier when there was a short throw-in from the female goal umpire. Why didn't they do the same here? Directly from that, in the last play of the quarter with a kick after the siren the umpire allows the GC player, rather than kick over the mark, to kick at least 1m past the mark and hook it through. Should have been disllowed as he effectively played on.

I agree. Casey didn't take the advantage. The players stopped. Then the umpire calls advantage and Woewodin get's caught because he's in a disadvantaged position.

Loved the pass. That's what we want to see from Melksham.

Fair point. But with his skills he's far too good for VFL.

On reflection I agree and my earlier comment was a bit misplaced. Clearly they're local commentators and their knowledge of GC players is higher than that of Casey. Not their fault.

I'd probably put it another way. It would have been very unfortunate timing if the the siren had beaten the pass. Surprised that Spargo wasn't brought straight back into the seniors, even if he was sub. Maybe they want to give him some game time and increase his confidence at a lower level. I like Joel Smith up forward and he's moving well.

Not sure I can handle this commentary. Clearly biased towards Gold Coast. Ridiculous commentary about Casey needing to slow the game down to have any chance against Gold Coast. Casey are defending Premiers and lost one game last year, fgs. Have these commentatos ever seen Casey play?

Well, you are actually attempting to read Goodwin's mind because he didn't give any indication any of this will be happening. I'm not saying your predictions are going to proved incorrect. Time will tell.

This is going to be an extremely tough game, especially with Luke Dunstan out. Mitch White coming back last week made a massive differencel. Does anyone have any news on Jimmy Munro (we need him in the side). Because he's not a Melbourne-listed player we don't get any injury news.

Schache is available: https://www.melbournefc.com.au/video/1321419/rd-8-injury-report?videoId=1321419&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1682990802001 Goody was non-committal about the team make-up this weekend in today's presser. Unfortunately Luke Dunstan has an MCL and will out for 4-6 weeks: https://www.melbournefc.com.au/video/1321659/rd-8-media-conference-simon-goodwin?videoId=1321659&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1683072865001

I suspect Selwyn Griffith had a big part in Melbourne's approach in 2021 (he joined Melbourne in November 2020), especially as he made the move from Brisbane on the basis that he would be replacing Darren Burgess after the 2021 Season with Burgess moving to Adelaide. So it would probably have just been minor tweaks in 2022. Having said that, Burgess seemed to have been actively involved in discussions with Goody on game day (certainly in the 2021 GF) whereas Griffith seems to be more in the backround- age, seniority, personality could all be factors here but I am totally speculating. https://www.linkedin.com/in/selwyn-griffith-83466439/?originalSubdomain=au A related question is the impact of current strength and rehabilitation coach Jack McLean who joined the Club full time in October 2022 after being with Casey part-time as VFL High Performance Manager in a Premiership Year. https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-mclean-/?originalSubdomain=au

I'd be interested in comments he has on Salem's importance to the team and specifically Salem's structural role in our backline, past and future.

Well that's just mathematics. You're comparing 1 selection against all the others (say roughly 60) in a given year. More to the point how to Pick 1s do against each of Picks 2, 3, 4, 5...... Now there are Pick 1s and then there are Pick 1s. If the player you want is likely to be available at the Pick you have clearly you don't trade up. I guess it depends on needs, depth of the draft, likely availability of the player you want, depth of your current list... A lot of unknowns. But I take your point.