ChaserJ

Apparently HS have us taking Jake Bowey and Seamus Mitchell (a flyer!) with our 1st round picks in their latest phantom. Profile on Mitchell here: https://afl.draftcentral.com.au/player/seamus-mitchell/

Super effort @Gawndog98, well thought out & reasoned. Would be stoked if we walked away with any 3 of the 4 you’ve got coming to us. I remember how excited JT was about Mitch Georgiadis when we though he might get to our pick, Baldwin’s injury history a bit different, but can see the parallels. Good stuff!

Was interesting that Cal reckons Ford sits somewhere in the pick 35 range. Can't quite work out why he's ranked so low, has some v good traits.

If we could sneak Jake Bowey or Eddie Ford in with one or both of Carroll & Cook that would be fantastic. Bowey, whilst shorter at 175cm, is one of the best kicks in the draft. Good pace, applies pressure and would be brilliant delivering the ball i50.

I’d be happy with pretty much any of the players listed from 13-29. Apart from a couple of the pure inside players like Powell and Trew, the others fill a list need of some description. This indicates that there’s plenty of diverse options and we’re perfectly placed to take whatever falls at 18, 19 & possibly 28. We shouldn’t be too worried if we don’t end up trading to get further up the order, there’ll be plenty in our range to fill out the list.

You were in the Chargers group with Rowell & Anderson, yes?

If we want Perkins or Macrae, we’ll have to move up into the 8-13 range. Failing that, there will still be some handy options at our current range. I imagine we’ll be looking at pace & ball use, so these players could be around the mark (Bailey Laurie & Brayden Cook are 2 who also fit the bill, but aren’t on the list below) : https://afl.draftcentral.com.au/2020/07/02/2020-afl-draft-positional-analysis-outside-midfielders/

This in combination with the amount of attention trade period gets (helped that Collingwood imploding & Essendon & Carlton were heavily involved) means AFL would be keen to extend that. Helps that there's a potentially significant trade just sitting there waiting to be done. We could benefit by trying for a potential pick from WB, but may also give us an extra window to offload T Mac.

We’re in a race with the Pies to find a trading partner further up the draft. Can see them moving up quite high as their ‘21 pick will also be on the table. Reckon Fremantle at 12 or GWS at 10 are our best bets. Chance that Macrae could be in play at that range.

Perkins & Macrae are out of reach at our current set of picks, so wouldn't be surprised if we moved up. If we stand pat, Poulter & Dumesny could have some appeal: https://www.afl.com.au/news/515600/phantom-form-guide-extra-the-next-15-prospects

In a good spot to trade up or wait and see what may fall, it's a valuable hand to have. Some opportunities may open if the Cameron deal gets done for 13 & 15, will be nice if the Dogs end up getting pick 8 for Dunkley as well. Decent chance Collingwood would snatch that in a potential Treloar trade, but who knows? They're pushing AT out, but if they're paying 300k per annum toward his contract, they can probably ask for a decent pick in return. Would give us some diverse options in trading up.

From Marc McGowan on Twitter: Roos trade Ben Brown, R2 (28) and Future R4 Selection (63*) = 789 points Dees trade R2 (26), R2 (33) and Future R4 Selection (76*) (currently tied to the Brisbane Lions) = 1292 points Ben Brown = 503 points (pick 36) * Assumes Roos and Lions finish in same spot as 2020

Kanga's apparently planning to use the Brown picks in trade for Stephenson. Gives us a slightly clearer run at targeting the Dogs pick.

AVB was slightly older when we recruited him too, so probably the last chance to get something of value back in the door for him. We have a few in that 26-28 bracket who have good traits, but are still short of being consistent, everyday players who are well established in the best 18. A good list can't carry that. If they haven't nailed down a spot at that age, you may as well be developing 18-24 y/o's in those positions, as they still have a ceiling to hit and probably cost a bit less in salary.

Isn't part of the issue (from AT's perspective) that he took a haircut previously so Pies could get other players in (Wells from recollection)? Now that he's due to get the increased dollars Pies are trying to get him out the door. No doubt there are some other factors at play, but without Collingwood's cap mess, I doubt AT would be getting shoved out the door.

Pretty much captures it. I also think a bit has to do with the natural bias many of us have with how a player looks when playing the gamevs the effectiveness of the player. It's the sort of thing that Billy Beane tried to tap into with the Moneyball thing and the introduction of analytics. We go nuts for players that play the game in an exciting and aesthetically pleasing way, whilst often ignoring the effective, but less appealing players. The numbers tell us Cameron & Brown should be equally valuable, and yet there's a big gap in valuation. There are a number of things that of course influence the numbers (team systems, availability of other scoring options, etc.), but the 'eye test' still influences assessment of players more than it perhaps should.

Wonderful quirk of the AFL concessions to GC...Alex Davies could easily have been selected inside the top 10 in this draft. He'll walk to GC for nothing, as GC's academy and zone players don't have to be matched via bid processes this year. They are getting a couple of really good prospects for nothing this year. And they have pick 5, which they would be happy to offload for Treloar. In our worst years we never got leg ups like that.

Dockers do have a couple of good ones there, but probably expected to go really late first or in the second round. They should be looking to keep 12 but get some later picks in. They already carried a points deficit into this year following the matched bid for Henry.

Preuss and Ben Brown for Dom Tyson! Could be traced back to 2013 pick 2 for Ben Brown, Christian Salem & Jayden Hunt...

Picks can move multiple times (I think one 4th rounder had four homes at some point last year), things to take into account are whether you have capacity to move picks in the first two rounds due to historical trades (we're fine here, I lose track of other clubs circumstances) and whether you theoretically have enough list spaces to accommodate the number of picks you are taking on. For example if we were bundling up 4 picks for WB's first rounder, but they only had three vacancies on the primary list, deal would be nixed by AFL. Obviously a different rule for players, who can only be traded once in a trade period. Edit. You also can't have a pick that you have traded out come back in as part of a separate deal.

Dawson the better kick (left footer). Hewitt a run with player who's been able to find the ball. Neat user without being top notch. He had back surgery this year, which is why he didn't play the full season.

That's part of a segment on Trade Radio where they put the hypothetical deal up and ask which club would be more likely to say no. Pretty sure Cal Twomey said GWS would be more likely to say no. I reckon it's what we optimistically think we could get for Preuss. The actual deal may involve something else thrown into the mix to balance it out.

If we are looking at Macrae, we'd have to be looking at pick 10, any lower and you potentially miss. That said, there are likely to still be some good options to fill that need in that 10-15 range.

One of the problems with TMac is that he's lower priority and seems a 'in case our kpf plan A falls over' option for interested clubs. This means any deal will likely be a late deal, which doesn't give us much wiggle room in facilitating trades afterward.

I'd expect the deal to look something like 33 & 50 on to North for Brown. They probably baulked at a future 2nd, but now there is a extra '20 2nd for Dees to play with. Whichever 2nd rounder we retain can be bundled up with prospective Preuss pick to move up the order as well. It is interesting that Treloar isn't keen to meet with Dogs. His camp has said that they prefer to go to a contender in Victoria, maybe the additional rider is a contender, from Victoria, that also plays regularly at the 'G? From recollection that was a consideration when he'd narrowed his list to Richmond & the Pies when he left GWS.