ChaserJ

AFL Draft Central's phantom draft (1st round only): https://afl.draftcentral.com.au/2020/12/08/2020-draft-central-phantom-draft-first-round-prediction/ Remember when Burgo used to give us a phantom draft with a prediction for every selection through to the last?

I’d be pretty stoked with that outcome. Plenty of pace, good skills by foot. More reference to our interest in (& work on) Max Holmes. Intriguing.

Holmes in the 1st round would be a flier, but happy with the names linked. Clearly trying to address outside run and add some athleticism.

Indeed! I pinged Dean with the question on the back of a Riley Beveridge article which referenced the work that Ryan did with Xavier over the lockdown period. Dean's potentially got a touch of bias as a coach at Gippy Power and he's really passionate about the boys that come through the program, but loads of respect for his insight.

I'd like Angwin with our 3rd of 4th pick. I asked Dean Duursma, to give me a quick rundown on twitter, this is what he came up with: Dean Duursma @50_48sc Ryan is a highly skilled player who has grown a lot over the last couple of years. He has developed a good engine and finds space like a magician. I like him at high half forward. Takes a good contested mark and finishes beautifully. Very clean below knees.

Draft Central have put together a very comprehensive list of prospects in the pool with quite detailed player profiles. Reminds me a bit of the old Inside Footy draft specials (I miss Brett Anderson's draft coverage). Also has a section on next years draft prospects, worth a look (guide is in .pdf, a free download): https://afl.draftcentral.com.au/2020-afl-draft-guide/?fbclid=IwAR0_gA9eRDNPlvYUfAhgSbLkqHEw-feIc0Pop4Iw72lISajA0J_nBshMCBI Fox Sports AFL also have a bit more on some of the potential steals in the draft (many of whom have been discussed at length on threads on Land): https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-draft-2020-draft-prospects-bargains-sliders-bolters-steals-afl-draft-order/news-story/54b9e4f23bc30181bef3abea090ffcae

Tall fwds don’t grow on trees, although, I’ve gotta say there is a high proportion of key position talent this year. Every year the draft gives you a bit more of particular player type than usual, last year it was half back playmakers, this year it’s talls. Recruiters tend to go nuts when a draft skews toward quality midfielders. I’m always happy to grab at least one of what a draft has in abundance, would be keen for us to grab one with our third pick. Baldwin, Rosman, Lord and Allison all appeal and have good athletic traits with versatility. Rosman probably the most impressive athlete.

It's an interesting one. I haven't seen him play nor seen his name mentioned anywhere in the first 30. I agree with the overall player type (and traits) targeted here, but hard to form a judgement without seeing what the recruiters might have seen. Wonder what sort of intel has informed the phantom draft and whether there are whispers that placed Mitchell with us. Seems too left field to be completely arbitrary.

Kids live with his ex, don't think their relocation is a viable option.

Apparently HS have us taking Jake Bowey and Seamus Mitchell (a flyer!) with our 1st round picks in their latest phantom. Profile on Mitchell here: https://afl.draftcentral.com.au/player/seamus-mitchell/

Super effort @Gawndog98, well thought out & reasoned. Would be stoked if we walked away with any 3 of the 4 you’ve got coming to us. I remember how excited JT was about Mitch Georgiadis when we though he might get to our pick, Baldwin’s injury history a bit different, but can see the parallels. Good stuff!

Was interesting that Cal reckons Ford sits somewhere in the pick 35 range. Can't quite work out why he's ranked so low, has some v good traits.

If we could sneak Jake Bowey or Eddie Ford in with one or both of Carroll & Cook that would be fantastic. Bowey, whilst shorter at 175cm, is one of the best kicks in the draft. Good pace, applies pressure and would be brilliant delivering the ball i50.

I’d be happy with pretty much any of the players listed from 13-29. Apart from a couple of the pure inside players like Powell and Trew, the others fill a list need of some description. This indicates that there’s plenty of diverse options and we’re perfectly placed to take whatever falls at 18, 19 & possibly 28. We shouldn’t be too worried if we don’t end up trading to get further up the order, there’ll be plenty in our range to fill out the list.

You were in the Chargers group with Rowell & Anderson, yes?

If we want Perkins or Macrae, we’ll have to move up into the 8-13 range. Failing that, there will still be some handy options at our current range. I imagine we’ll be looking at pace & ball use, so these players could be around the mark (Bailey Laurie & Brayden Cook are 2 who also fit the bill, but aren’t on the list below) : https://afl.draftcentral.com.au/2020/07/02/2020-afl-draft-positional-analysis-outside-midfielders/

This in combination with the amount of attention trade period gets (helped that Collingwood imploding & Essendon & Carlton were heavily involved) means AFL would be keen to extend that. Helps that there's a potentially significant trade just sitting there waiting to be done. We could benefit by trying for a potential pick from WB, but may also give us an extra window to offload T Mac.

We’re in a race with the Pies to find a trading partner further up the draft. Can see them moving up quite high as their ‘21 pick will also be on the table. Reckon Fremantle at 12 or GWS at 10 are our best bets. Chance that Macrae could be in play at that range.

Perkins & Macrae are out of reach at our current set of picks, so wouldn't be surprised if we moved up. If we stand pat, Poulter & Dumesny could have some appeal: https://www.afl.com.au/news/515600/phantom-form-guide-extra-the-next-15-prospects

In a good spot to trade up or wait and see what may fall, it's a valuable hand to have. Some opportunities may open if the Cameron deal gets done for 13 & 15, will be nice if the Dogs end up getting pick 8 for Dunkley as well. Decent chance Collingwood would snatch that in a potential Treloar trade, but who knows? They're pushing AT out, but if they're paying 300k per annum toward his contract, they can probably ask for a decent pick in return. Would give us some diverse options in trading up.

From Marc McGowan on Twitter: Roos trade Ben Brown, R2 (28) and Future R4 Selection (63*) = 789 points Dees trade R2 (26), R2 (33) and Future R4 Selection (76*) (currently tied to the Brisbane Lions) = 1292 points Ben Brown = 503 points (pick 36) * Assumes Roos and Lions finish in same spot as 2020

Kanga's apparently planning to use the Brown picks in trade for Stephenson. Gives us a slightly clearer run at targeting the Dogs pick.

AVB was slightly older when we recruited him too, so probably the last chance to get something of value back in the door for him. We have a few in that 26-28 bracket who have good traits, but are still short of being consistent, everyday players who are well established in the best 18. A good list can't carry that. If they haven't nailed down a spot at that age, you may as well be developing 18-24 y/o's in those positions, as they still have a ceiling to hit and probably cost a bit less in salary.

Isn't part of the issue (from AT's perspective) that he took a haircut previously so Pies could get other players in (Wells from recollection)? Now that he's due to get the increased dollars Pies are trying to get him out the door. No doubt there are some other factors at play, but without Collingwood's cap mess, I doubt AT would be getting shoved out the door.

Pretty much captures it. I also think a bit has to do with the natural bias many of us have with how a player looks when playing the gamevs the effectiveness of the player. It's the sort of thing that Billy Beane tried to tap into with the Moneyball thing and the introduction of analytics. We go nuts for players that play the game in an exciting and aesthetically pleasing way, whilst often ignoring the effective, but less appealing players. The numbers tell us Cameron & Brown should be equally valuable, and yet there's a big gap in valuation. There are a number of things that of course influence the numbers (team systems, availability of other scoring options, etc.), but the 'eye test' still influences assessment of players more than it perhaps should.