Superunknown

Squiggle and Matter of Stats have a probabilistic methodology with different models (MoS) which might paint a picture. You are right, it's still W-L, but it's interesting to ponder the probabilities for some confidence. I think Ess - L GWS - W Port - L Suns - W Hawks - W Dogs - L WC - L Crows - W Cats - L 4-5 Happy to be wrong though, very happy. It's quite possible for us to win Ess, Port, Dogs and go 7-2 though. That would be shocking.

I would agree with you had I said “and a quality backline and replacement ruck utility and pocket and wingman” - but i didn’t say that. None of what you have said invalidates Sue’s original point. Don’t be offended if I don’t respond further - I have limited bandwidth

That is not what I said at all - that is a misrepresentation. if you would like to change this into a general conversation about recruitment wins then you’ll brook no argument from me. ????‍?️??☠️ For the pedants - what type of logical fallacy is this please?

I should have been clearer - I didnt mean replacing with these players. I meant someone of their aptitude.

That's a shame, it's going to be a marathon.

Good perspective. We are fumbling around trying to find a FF. A good way to think about this, along your lines is: if we added a Kennedy, Hawkins, Walker, Cameron (etc) type FF to our forward line would we be better or worse.* * Rhetorical question. This could have some mileage - this could turn into a Saty-like "Gaff is an accumulator" thread with just the right dash of trolling.

Snip. I unboxed my panic detector and it was flat out doing 0. I put my panic detector away realising there was no panic. Instead I pulled out my Observo-Matic 2000 out and it was pinging off the dial like a Chernobyl geiger counter detecting observations ahoy hoy.

Age Real Footy Podcast questioning Melbourne’s goal kicking firepower compared to other flag chances especially Geelong and Lions (and I think the Eagles)

This is the worrying aspect. With our start this is our best chance in ages to lock a top 2 in. We came off a longish break. We just can’t do this. Thank goodness it didn’t cost us %. I’ve made this point before but we can’t ignore percentage.

The squiggle auto predict has us 3rd with Dogs 1, Cats 2. Dees Cats Qualifying. Yikes.

I wouldn't be surprised with a Cats v Dees/Tiges/Dogs GF. Maybe even the Eagles. The Cats look scary.

Someone mentioned BBB is going through a 6 week pre season to improve some fitness/strength aspects. I’d love to know how far along this is. I think about 5-6 weeks now? He might be close ….

I don’t think so - which points to hubris. Others can call it something else and in any case i don’t think it can continue

Stats are useful and all but I want my FF taking marks and kicking goals. Sam isn’t doing that. I’ve got more confidence BB will do so.

Prefer any result that maintains space between us and the rest to insure for losses. After yesterday’s insipid loss one is a bit more nervous about Essendon, Eagles (who are gettable), Hawthorn. Can see the rationale for a Dogs win to have 2 games separation though. would rather we win the games we should, like yesterday’s as the rest takes care of itself

I think hubris but I can see why there is a perception you give him a block of games (also keeping in mind BBB apparently in a 6 week fitness hardening block), but, given his form I think we’ve thought we can carry him. He wasn’t Robinson Crusoe today by any stretch .

We also lost the chance to maintain a 4 point buffer

I’ve been doing them weekly. We will need other results to go our way in the next few weeks and beyond.

Brown over Weid for some weeks now. Hubris carrying him this long. Compare to other flag favourites. Would Geelong carry someone with these numbers this long ? I haven’t consulted the stats so it’s possible other teams have carried KPFs but let’s not compare Weid to Riewoldt Cameron Lynch et al

Disagree on selection aspect

The shame about this BBB 6 week pre season is it’s cost us this game So long Sam

Kiss top 2 goodbye I suspect

Glad to have $ on the Pies

Day’s festivities commenced with a lovely ensemble of asparagus mushroom and zucchini on toasted sour dough, followed by golf with the kids in the front paddock teaching them how to chip into a wheelbarrow - short game makes mo money.

Pfizer is two weeks and AZ is 12 weeks. I work inside public health so am reasonably across the messaging/reasons. Having said that it might be non clinical ie logistics/ensuring supply for first shots. CSL AZ supply no longer an issue as they’re doing 1 million a month out of their Vic facility