Watson11
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Everything posted by Watson11
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Update of defensive stats. Definitely seems to be locked in to some averages now with only minor movement each week. Freo are putting up impressive numbers. Carlton were ranked third for i50s before last week (56 per game). Freo restricted them to just 38 i50s which is pretty impressive. If Freo's system stands up against Geelog this week then I'll call a Freo v Melb grand final. Brisbane are dangerous offensively but when finals pressure hits their mids are too loose and slow (bottom 6 at conceding i50s).
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Agree re Freo. I expect the wheels to fall off Carlton this year. Take away Curnow and McKay goals (through good defence, bad winter weather, more pressure on Carlton mids or injury) and Carlton are bottom 6 in my opinion. Gerard Healy had an interesting stat re Freo. If their kicking for goal was at the "expected accuracy" rate in 2021, they would have finished 5th (in front of the bulldogs). They have improved their defence again this year and are kicking straight.
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Thanks. Interesting stats. I don't mind it when analysts dig for stats which show your game plan will stand up. For those who don't read the article, we are top 4 in all 7 of the key stats. Carlton are top 5 in none of them and bottom 8 in 5! Will be a fascinating game between Carlton and Freo this week.
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Latest defensive numbers update after round 5. An interesting stat mentioned by Gerard Healy is that if you redid the 2021 ladder based on expected goal kicking accuracy, Freo would have finished 5th last year. They may be looking at a top 4 spot, although their wins are all against teams sitting bottom 4 defensively, and they did struggle to score against the Saints.
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Will be interesting to see what the AFL do re Hawkins staging. Ironic that last year Hawkins went to great lengths to remonstrate with Joe Daniher after Daniher staged and won a free. Daniher was charged and fined.
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The very, very contentious 50 for Dissent Rule
Watson11 replied to picket fence's topic in Melbourne Demons
Especially if you’re of Italian heritage. -
Amazing stat. Especially when the only reason Brisbane are not at 5 is because we kicked 13.15 in the final against them.
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I think you mean GWS is one of 2 teams who currently have a losing record against us, the other being GC. Unless you mean since the day before the queens birthday last year. Then you’d be correct.
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Added % goals conceded and number of i50s conceded. Some teams are conceding lots of i50s, and lots of scores from them.
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It depends on their game plan. In Richmond’s premiership years they ranked 14th, 18th, and 17th for clearances, 6th, 17th, and 13th for contested possessions, and in 2017 last in disposal efficiency. Hawthorn’s game plan from 2013-2015 was different to Richmond’s and they ranked 2nd, 1st, 1st for disposal efficiency, not last like 2017 Richmond! Despite different game plans, all of the premiers have been top 5 in just a small selection of stats: 1. Scores conceded from i50s 2. Post clearance contested possessions 3. Forward 50 groundballs 4. Score differential from turnovers So that’s why it’s interesting to track scores conceded from i50s. The other 3 are impossible to find.
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After a really poor defensive game against Essendon, we have dropped off the top of the best defensive team ladder for 2022. Last week we conceded scores from 51% of Essendon's entries. In 2021 only the Collingwood (53%) game was worse with the next poorest being the Crows (43%) game. Hawthorn's defence is tracking very well. If they keep this up they are likely playing finals. Carlton continue to be hyped up but don't have a premiership defence yet. Reminder, the last time a premier was not ranked top 5 in this stat was 1999.
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He only goes missing if you only value his offensive contribution (and Spargo's). Goody would not ever drop Kozzie and Spargo and probably could not be happier with what they delivered on Friday. The facts are they had 27% of the teams tackles, and 19% of the teams pressure acts playing as small forwards. That is astounding. It's why we had 66 inside 50s to 39 despite losing clearances, as the pressured exits from defensive 50 for Essendon resulted in a lot of midfield turnovers. The reason we didn't win by 80 points is our delivery inside 50 after midfield turnovers was poor, and our defence was off and leaked.
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Not sure where to put this but I thought I would start a running total of scores conceded from defensive i50s. In my view it is a good measure of who has game plans that stand up under pressure and who doesn't. The dogs last year were 14th in this stat, and fell apart in the GF. So far the sample is too small to really provide much insight but I will update every few weeks. We have started this year where we left off last year, which without Lever and Petty is a great effort.
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Harmes was solid. I think Harmes, along with Sparrow and Jordan, were all significantly cleaner and better than the second tier GC mids.
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Mills and Dangerfield spent the entire night next to each other when Geelong had the ball or at stoppages, but when the swans had it Mills was running around on his own (and had 29 possessions).
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I’ll explain it as it is not really very difficult. If they both have eyes on the ball then it’s a fair contest. As soon as one takes their eye off the ball it’s a free (and maybe suspension if they jump in the air and make high contact). How simple is that concept. Feel free to forward this to Jeff Gleeson as he obviously has never played the game. The pictures also show you don’t need eyes in the back of your head to mark running with the flight. Just a lot of courage.
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and 5 score involvements. Those stats are only impressive if you ignore the fact Smith played most of the game inside directly opposed to Tracc or Oliver who had 21 score involvements between them.
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Bevo must have given Smith 4. I wonder what the sequence of events was. Lost the plot while doing coaches votes and then lost it again at the presser, or vice versa.
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I’m not watching WC v GC but quickly looked at stats on afl.com. They credit GC with 13 scoring shots from 19 inside 50s for 4.3. Is that a mistake or have they kicked 6 OOB?
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They say defences wins flags. The stats for conceding scores from inside 50s so far: 1. Melbourne 35% Daylight 2. Richmond 50% 3. St Kilda 52% 4. Collingwood 53% 5. Carlton 58% 6. Bulldogs 60%
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I agree statistics don't tell the truth. You need to put them in context. Smith had 33 disposals but I thought he had a poor game. I don't recall Harmes being on Smith at all, and if he did it would have been covering for someone else. Smith played as an inside mid most of the night against Tracc and Oliver, and frankly he was ripped apart. When he went outside he matched up on Jordon. Tracc/Oliver had 21 score involvements. The dogs had 16 scores total. Smith is the one who gets lost at stoppages, not Harmes. At stoppages Harmes primarily picked up Dunkley, but if he wasn't around he picked up Libba/Bont/Macrae.
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The bolded statement is harsh. Défense - Harmes had the second most tackles for us, and 4th most pressure acts. He was nowhere near the play when the dogs scored goals. He was not defensively poor in my view. Disposal - His disposal efficiency was 82.4% which was 4th best on the night for us. Is that really putrid?
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I used to think that as well but changed my mind when Smith played forward at the start of 2019. He kicked a few goals, but we were getting rebounded way too easily and Joel was regularly at fault. As a forward, learning the defensive structures is a lot tougher than as a defender. I remember one preseason game where Houlli had about 45 kicks.
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Smith clearly is not competing with Lever, but with Hibberd, Hunt, Tomlinson etc. I’m a doubter on Smith, but dropping him right now would be a bad call. Other than the dodgy Weightman free kick he conceded, he was really good and needs 10 to 15 games of continuity to show what he is made of. He may become a really good versatile defender.
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Really good article on abc. AFL 2022 preview This graph is why dogs may struggle this year and won’t win a flag until they sort it out. Their defence is hopeless one on one. Every team should be trying to move the ball inside 50 as quickly as possible. Last year, teams generally didn’t move it quickly enough against the dogs, but those who did (Richmond, Essendon, us) sliced them up.
