Watson11

Any chance any of the existing players request a number change? In his draft year Kozzie had a liking for low numbers (1 and 3) so maybe a request to number 2?

Thanks for your informed commentary. Re American Football, it's not just the positional stuff that makes it hard to compare, but also the player welfare (there is none). For those that haven't listened to Burgos podcast with Dave Reagan, it is really interesting, as when he worked in the NFL the compliance with all the high performance stuff is almost zero. Players refuse to do urine tests, surveys etc as they believe they could lose their job on the spot if they answer honestly. Fast returns from ACLs in the NFL may also be related to job security.

Burgo and Brukky argue that tackling in soccer is pretty hard on bones and joints (similar to why sliding into contests is cracked down on in AFL). But your point about AFL being worse is correct. From what I can see though, American Football is really bad for ACLs and worse than AFL. Their rates are through the roof. A recent article reviewing ACL data in AFL is here https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8020809/ Taking too long to return is worse than returning early! "The timing of return to competition has also been examined to determine whether an early return is associated with an increased risk of reinjury.34 In this analysis, 233 AFL players who returned to play after autograft ACL reconstruction were grouped based on the time they returned to competition, at <10 months, 10–12 months or >12 months. Players who returned at 10–12 months had the lowest ACL injury risk per game. Players who returned before 10 months had the next highest risk but also played the greatest number of post-injury career games. Interestingly, players who returned after 12 months had the highest per game ACL injury risk and played the fewest post-injury career games. As such, there may be a “sweet spot” in time where both early and late return to play leads to suboptimal outcomes"

You and dazzle need to not fall asleep during the presidents speech at the the best and fairest night. The presidents speech puts everyone to sleep because most of it is thanking those who moved on. PJ from memory had a standing ovation. I assume Kate Roffey will continue the tradition and Shannon will get his due thankyou.

Well you are right about AFL having a higher ACL rate (2.4x that of soccer in the study I found) but interestingly that is in males at the elite level. For womens AFL and soccer it seems to be the same ridiculously high rate. But what’s the story with the 6 month rehab Burgo talks about in soccer? Don’t they have the same joint irritation issues?

On one of Burgo's podcasts he and Brukky talk about comebacks from ACLs. AFL is the only sport apparently with a 12 month rehab. Soccer and NFL are 6 months, and the rate of injury recurrence in soccer and NFL are the same as AFL. Burgo also pre-empted the argument that AFL is somehow harder on knees and he argues the opposite. If Tomlinson comes back in round 1 and does his knee everyone will blame Selwyn. If he comes back in round 8 and does it everyone will blame bad luck. The odds apparently are the same either way.

Viney looks like he has stacked on more muscle over preseason which I think is good. If Viney stays fit then I suspect they will be talking about Gawn, LJ, Tracc, Oliver and Viney for the next 50 years but it’s all in front of them. Viney at training Monday.

Harmes was better in playing his role as the 4th mid than Treloar was. Any dog who was in every centre clearance for the last 8 minutes of the 3rd qtr did not have a good game. Harmes was 4th for us in pressure acts (equal with Kossie).

If we have a good run with injuries it doesn’t matter who we play twice. The bigger issue with the draw is the number of short turnarounds which can lead to injuries, especially back to back 6 day breaks or 5 day breaks. Carlton, Freo, GWS, GC, and Hawks have draws with none of these. Every other team does. Richmond have a nasty 5 day break after playing us and then travelling to Perth. Comparatively our draw is ok.

I can’t work out how we have the most difficult draw. Unless they count preseason intraclub scratch matches as then we play ourselves about 5 times. Will be interesting to see how the Cats go as they play us, the dogs, Brisbane, and Port in their 9 games at GMBH so they can’t lock in their usual 8 wins at the cattery. They have Sydney, North, West Coast, GWS, and Port interstate. May struggle to get to 12 wins for the season. But I feel like it’s a win win, as if they miss the 8 nothing would make me happier other than us playing them in another final.

Anyone know if 12 in a row has been kicked in a granny before.

His top 8 prediction is MFC, Port, Dogs, Lions, Cats, Bombers, Sydney, Tiges. So he is being bold this year and has GWS out and Tiges in. His 2021 top 8 prediction was just the 2020 top 8. No changes at all. A few other things from the article. He thinks if the dogs had a ruckman they would be premiers. That's laughable considering they had the 14th ranked defence and no premier has been that bad defensively since they started measuring these things. He thinks the cats will be contenders again based on their bad injury run last year. Fact: They had the second least games lost due to injury in 2021 behind us. He thinks West Coast will be coming for LJ with an $8m 7-year contract

I’ve got too much time now that I’ve overloaded on GF replays. You have contributed some great stuff on here. The stuff on loadings was gold. Burgos latest podcast with Choco is worth a listen as well https://brukieandburgo.podbean.com/e/brukie-and-burgo-with-choco-williams/

Max said much the same re analysis in his article today in the age. He bemoaned the lack of understanding the media have of the modern game and how he can’t watch afl because of it. I think Goody is different to the intellectually curious coaches and managers you allude to. I may be mistaken. In my view, Goody is more a “manager” type. I don’t see it in Hardwick either. But they both stuck with a sound basic strategy, built lists to execute it, and got the culture right to perform. It’s such a lesson for other clubs that it usually takes time for a list to develop to execute a strategy. What strategy works for list A won’t for list B. Burgo talks about this a lot in soccer on his podcasts where the difference between the physicality of the press strategy requires completely different players to the possession based strategy’s. There are similarities in AFL but not as pronounced. As Goody has the right people around him now it doesn’t matter if he is brilliant or not. His limitations showed when he stuck to some flawed tactics for long periods of time that other coaches could easily exploit, especially when the pressure was on, and he clearly didn’t have the right people around him to point out the issues. The entire thread about whether he was the right guy was after his experimental strategy was ripped apart by Clarko and Hawthorn. Richo was the master of exploiting the holes on Goodys gameplan and was a great addition for us, Yze fixed Goody’s “win contested ball at all cost” stoppage strategy, and Choco in my view likely kept coaches and players on their toes in a way that didn’t seem to happen from 2017-2020 when we always seemed to get ahead of ourselves or not handle expectations. 2021 was all about Goody managing all of these people and the players and making it work. I really don’t think Beveridge should be mentioned in that elite coaching group either. His “genius” to handball out of stoppages and hit form for 4 weeks in September 2016 has resulted in a 5 year leave pass and in him being credited as tactically brilliant whenever the dogs have success, but never criticised for their failures. And some of their failures are all on him, like their lack of midfield defensive running, flawed defensive work at stoppages, a defence that is terrible 1 on 1, and the result being a flawed strategy where they can leak goals (like 16 in 28 minutes of playing time in a GF). His strategy is flawed yet he is credited with being a genius. That makes no sense. The really elite coaches all have been first with a new point of strategic difference, and built unbelievable cultures and lists to execute it and created sustained success for long periods. Roos turned the game on its head tactically and won a flag that no one believed was possible, using systems imported from US basketball that even the AFL CEO didn’t understand. He broke a longer drought than ours, and put in place a bloods culture that still remains. Clarko moneyballed the AFL with elite kicks and got 4 flags from it in 8 years. But it wouldn’t have worked without the culture. Leigh Matthews was different in that it was more about culture and psychology. But he’s a 4 times premiership coach, and if you listen to him on dynasties it is no less impressive than what clarko did. Goody will be seen alongside these revered coaches if the culture and success is sustained. Worsfold built the Eagles from a rabble in 2000 and 2001 to a flag in 5 years, but their culture sucked and he didn’t get what he could of out of that list. I don’t think we will be a one hit wonder but only time will tell. If we only have 1 flag to show by 2025 Goody will always be respected for 2021 but seen more like a Worsfold or Chris Scott than Matthews or Clarko. I’d prefer he is a future AFL Hall of Fame legend alongside Norm Smith.

You’re confusing who you thought had more upside and who did have more upside. 5 All-Australians, All-Australian captain, premiership captain, 2x B&F etc makes it obvious who did have more upside. I can’t really critique what you thought though as in 2013 I didn’t see it either, but the original point was those within the club did see the potential.

I don’t think this is correct. Someone inside the club told me in 2013 that Max would be a star if he got a good run with injury. No way were they thinking about delisting him, and although Jamar was clearly number 1 at the time Max, at least internally, was rated really highly. The club was a shambles in 2012 and we got nothing for Martin in the trade, but there was a pretty high expectation on Max. I never heard the same said about Spencer or Fitzpatrick.

The bookies odds are probably a fair reflection. I would have Sydney above Geelong and Richmond though.

For those interested, the podcast where Burgo spoke about our output was this one https://brukieandburgo.podbean.com/e/series-2-episode-2-matthew-innes/ Matthew Innes is head of high performance at the Bulldogs, and it was not the most interesting podcast. Innes spoke about the finals and the travel and quarantine the dogs dealt with etc. Burgo slipped in the conversation that Round 20 against Gold Coast, despite spending the entire previous day sitting on a plane etc, then having the game scheduled early the following day the MFC players performance was off the charts and 15% higher than any other game this year. It was also the week after the wet slog against the dogs. You have to feel sorry for gold coast considering our performance after that game.

Yes they do https://support.catapultsports.com/hc/en-us/articles/360000648316-Volume-Metrics This looks like the super duper version. https://support.catapultsports.com/hc/en-us/articles/360001343976-What-is-Metabolic-Power- Burgo has a PhD so he worked it all out.

You would need to ask Burgo. I would assume they measure total energy for the game for every player using the GPS and efforts etc but don’t really know.

We played one game this season where our total physical output was 15% more than any other game. Can anyone guess which game it was? Source is Burgo's podcasts.

Except he was linked to Carlton so not sure about the success part!

If Sam W has a big preseason then TMac will need one as well.

I would have said yes except for the 2 weeks between the prelim and GF was plenty to recover. In that final 40 mins they also had a total of 13 minutes of recovery time between goals and 6 mins at 3/4 time. They were cooked upstairs but physically they had no excuses.

Yet statistically we had the best defence ever by a long way. Even so, I do agree with your assessment re ground balls, and if we do clean up that little thing, we will break the record for the best defensive team ever again.