Watson11

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2022/02/17/the-best-player-in-the-afl-in-2021-by-some-margin-according-to-champion-data/ This article just explains how clueless Champion Data are about the game. Apparently, to be elite you just need to win contested possession in the forward half of the ground, and kick and handball straight. Still doesn't explain why Nic Nat is the best player in the league according to CD, as his kicking efficiency is 42% and overall disposal efficiency is 63%, both in the lowest (Below Average) category. It does explain why the elite category is full of front runners and Carlton defenders.

You would have to say that even in the GF the kicking to the pockets worked a treat when the game was really on the line. If you look at our last 9 minutes in the 3rd qtr a lot of our inside 50's, unless they were quick centre clearances to a one on one or straight through the goals, went to pockets. Harmes kick to Fritsch to kick start it is a classic example. Harmes knew where to kick it (space in the pocket), and Fritsch knew where to run. The centre clearance that Brown marked shortly after was not deep in the pocket, but enough in that direction that it was a one on one to Browns advantage rather than 4 players up in the goal square. The best example of what we practised all year was 5 minutes to go in the third, when May intercepted around the centre and passed to Brayshaw who had a few bounces and kicked deep into the pocket. It was a poor kick and bounced on the boundary line, but it resulted in 2 stoppages and then we went to work, resulting in the Brayshaw goal which put us in front. Traccs goal with 58s left was another example. Brown could have kicked anywhere, but kicked to the pocket and Tracc and Kossie both were ready. Worst case is that goes out of bounds and we maybe get another goal (rather than the 3 we got). I am sure all the other coaches would have been studying what we did intently, but I honestly don't know how they will stop it as it is not a risky strategy at all. With your last point re free kicks, I could not agree more. The dogs Bigfooty board postgame on GF day is interesting to read regarding this issue, as there was commentary from their supporters about our tackling (brutal) versus theirs (soft). Basically, they were bemoaning the fact that the dogs are so focussed on not giving away frees, that we just consistently stood up in tackles and got the ball to the outside which really hurt them. When the other happened, we just didn't care and were tackling them into the turf every time. We gave away a few frees but they did not hurt us at all. Edit Grammar

Champion data only seems to rate offence. Everyone else knows defence wins flags.

Footywire has a good set of stats. But only on a web browser, not mobile. Go to Teams, pick Melbourne, and then pick Splits and it breaks all of the key stats down in home, away, wins, losses etc

That's a good analysis. In games we didn't win our accuracy was 46% which is 17th and our inside 50 conversion was 5.44 (18th). If we just went at the average we had for the rest of the season for accuracy and i50 conversions, we would have probably only lost one of those games.

Saw Tomlinson on the video last week in full match sim. If he is playing full match sim I can’t see why he won’t play preseason games and be ready for round 1.

Champion data need to look at stats that make a difference and give them a much, much higher weighting. Disposals and disposal efficiency are stupid measures for the modern game, as chip chip teams like West Coast etc and chip-chip players skew the results. I think Score Involvements should be the highest weighting no matter where you play. All the other stats mean nothing if after you touch the ball your team never scores from the chain. The other important stat for ruck and mid defenders is intercepts, as when your team doesn't have the ball stopping your opponent scoring is kind of important (not according to champion data though). Score involvements and intercepts for max versus the "elite" rucks are below. Max clearly is elite at both offense (ranked 2nd) and defence (ranked 1st by a long way). Nic Nat is clearly a liability at defence (in fact of all AFL rucks he is ranked 35th for intercept marks). Sean Darcy is becoming a gun but still miles behind Max. Sean Darcy - 6.00 and 2.67 per game Max Gawn - 5.48 and 3.56 per game Nic Nat - 5.32 and 1.55 per game Hickey - 4.62 and 2.90 per game Grundy - 4.65 and 2.7 per game For mid size defenders, here are the stats for Salem versus the elite defenders. Salem ranks 1st for intercepts and 4th for score involvements but all the others rank elite and he ranks average. Makes no sense. Salem 3.92 and 6.08 Saad 3.73 and 5.95 Rich 3.88 and 5.92 Hind 4.45 and 5.64 Dale 4.08 and 5.23 Williams 3.64 and 5.21 Daniel 4.08 and 4.48

Did Christian Salem really not rate Elite or Above average? Melbourne's defence, who all rate average or less except for Jake Lever and Stephen May, had the best defensive year of any defence ever. Obviously to be an elite defender you don't need to be able to defend according to Champion Data.

If you look at the infectious disease reports it was more than likely rotavirus. One of the main symptoms is “passing excessive amounts of gas”. I don’t think Scott has fully recovered from it yet.

The comments are funny. This guy should have started supporting Melbourne.

Without that trade we don’t get Sparrow and miss out on the middle part that ended up as this…..

Not related to clearances, but I wonder if Goody and his use of Brayshaw has started to change the way wingman will be used. On afl.com today it mentioned that Mitch Wallace at the dogs is spending all preseason on the wing, which you would assume would be to copy Brayshaw’s role.

Is the AFL Integrity Unit an oxymoron?

Great analysis but surely the strategy is hide Viney all year and unleash him for finals.....

A 3 year extension, which is until end of 2024 is perfectly reasonable. Richmond did the same with Hardwick after 2017 (extended to end 2021). Clarko (after his 2nd flag in 2013) got a 2 year extension. Clarkos post 2013 contract extension Ironically, the more confident the coach is in his own ability and the list, the shorter the contract will be.

It is possible North thought his knee would never be the same again, and for a player who relies on covering extraordinary kms per game, maybe they thought he was done. Either way, they got reasonable picks and picked up Jaidyn Stephenson who will be around for a while with one of the 2 picks they received.

Yes you are right Noble did come later. I think North from the top down decided to do a proper rebuild and made a lot of list changes at the end of 2020 (12 delisted in all with several regulars). If their board sticks with the program they will reap the rewards as the foundations of their list is in good shape.

The myth Ben Brown was a stay at home forward at North is wrong. In his good years he covered more km per game than Gaff, Sculley, and the other elite runners. But North realistically decided to rebuild when Noble came in, and they are getting games into kids. If their board sticks fat with the ups and downs of a rebuild I can see them contending in 4-5 years, by which time BB is probably finished anyway. It was a win-win for both clubs.

But when Dusty played well in 2021 they win. >= 25 disposals 5W - 0L < 25 disposals 0W - 8L Injured during game 1W - 1L (interesting that he was on track for >25 disposals in the win and had 16 when injured, but was shutdown against us). Did not play 2W - 6L My conclusion is Richmond are useless without Dusty or when he doesn’t play well. But who know if he is a symptom or a cause of their poor form.

Very true. And although it’s good that some posters who previously were scathing on Viney now see his value, he was a scapegoat for a lot of posters and some even relatively recent comments were ridiculous. Viney has always given the ball off to others in a better position, but often because of our structures there wasn’t anyone on the outside. He has always had a different approach in the contest to say a younger Oliver who was handball happy. Viney never handballed to no-one so got caught HTB more while the old Oliver often handballed to no one and turned it over. Viney’s approach was always better, and Oliver has adopted it, as defending against holding the ball is a lot easier than defending a handball turnover to an opposition player on the outside. Oliver now bursts out of stoppages and stands up in tackles as well, and occasionally gets caught HTB but who cares. As a team, our stoppages were probably the best by any team ever in the finals, as we sorted the structures and it all clicked. But Viney didn’t change his approach, it’s just the team improved and he had support on the outside to give it off to. Full credit to Yze. So give Viney credit for his unbelievable final series, but posters shouldn’t try and justify their previously ridiculous comments by arguing Viney changed his approach.

Not always. Definition from champion data is Disposal clangers are any kick or handball that directly turns the ball over to the opposition. So I assume includes a point kicked no matter where from, and even Max Gawns kick that led to Spargo’s goal in the GF, as although it was a brilliant kick (50m on left foot to open forward line) it directly led to the dogs possession (even though they were under pressure).

Sam Frost doesn’t even make top 50! The champion data definition is useless. “Disposal clangers are any kick or handball that directly turns the ball over to the opposition. Frees and 50-metre penalties against, No Pressure Errors, Dropped Marks and Debits are all included in clangers.” We all watched Frosty for long enough to know exactly what a clanger is. Yet Champion data decides tearing out of the backline and missing an easy handball to an open teammate that results in a stoppage doesn’t count, yet Tracc bursting out of a centre clearance and kicking a point from 60m does. Go figure.

The dogs need to sort their defence out (and their mids defensive structures). Not sure how the mauling will affect them, but with their flakey defence they will find it extremely difficult to win 3 or 4 finals in a row. One team will get a run on and they just can’t stop it. We were similar in 2018 and I suspect they need to go backwards before improving.

Great review. Signed up and worth the subscription. Great to see Harmes get some recognition for his important defensive work. The dogs would have loved him on their side on gf day. He is much maligned on here at times.

Or maybe the question should be “how many times has a team won after winning their first premiership the year before”. Because we are talking about us going back to back which is a 1 in 5 chance based on the last 25 years, and clearly after we have won 2 in a row the 3rd is easier (1 in 2 chance).