titan_uranus

I'm surprised there haven't been more posters focusing on the umpiring. Not because it's a valid argument to make as to why we lost, but because there genuinely were some critical decisions that were missed in the fourth quarter that could have directly impacted the game. The two which stand out were the mark Fritsch took that wasn't paid (that gets paid 99 times out of 100 I reckon) and Mumford's late hit on Petracca which should have been a downfield free to us resulting in a shot on goal within 20 metres. They were momentum-changing, IMO.

6 - Salem 5 - Lever 4 - May 3 - Fritsch 2 - McDonald 1 - Petracca

[censored] thread. We drew 16,000+ to a game where there were about 100 GWS supporters tops, on a day where it felt sub-zero. Essendon had the night slot last week against us and drew 19,000-odd. Meanwhile the 16,000-odd of us who were there were making as much noise as we could to gee them up. Really, [censored] thread.

It's time to bring in Ben Brown. Goodwin threw Hunt forward when he's been playing defence all year. Why? Because Pickett, Spargo and ANB were struggling to get their hands on it or to break lines forward of centre. Pickett is our x-factor and our pace, but he's also way off his best form right now. Meanwhile Sparrow is on the pine for nearly half the match each week. Right now, I'd be looking at one of Sparrow or Pickett to make way for Brown. Yes, it throws our height and pace out a bit, but the onus is on the other 21 who don't get dropped to lift their workrate to make up for it.

The positive spin is that we were slaughtered in the midfield but still generated more inside 50s and scoring shots than our opponent, and only lost by 9 points despite playing significantly below our 2021 best. But we can't keep kicking to an outsized forward line and then missing the shots we do generate and expect to win. Hunt's three HTBs were frustrating and at least once he should have passed it but put it in context. Having played in the back half all season, he's asked to play forward in the fourth quarter because the three small forwards we've relied on all year were nowhere, particularly the quickest one of the lot, Pickett. The focus here is obvious. It's very difficult to wrestle momentum back when the opposition walks it out of most stoppages. We couldn't get a run of goals on because too many times after one of our goals we'd immediately cough up the next centre clearance. And then there's the forward line. It's becoming increasingly clear to me now that we were sucked in by the 6-0 start with this forward line. It was a correlation but not causation - this forward line was not the reason we were winning those games. We cannot continue this way. It's time for Ben Brown to be played alongside TMac and Fritsch. That means we go taller and slower but on current form that is what needs to be done. If you're going to rip into Hunt, give it to Harmes too. He cannot help but step into tackles when he shouldn't. Infuriating. Viney's either unfit or out of form, or both, and it's badly showing. Why are we playing Sparrow if he's only on the field for 55% of the time each week? Salem, Lever and May all outstanding yet again, Jackson's playing at a level well, well above his age or experience, and a welcome return to goalkicking form from Fritsch (although his missed snap in the third was a momentum killer). We have shown all year we play our best football against the best sides. Thursday night is a prime opportunity to get this season back on track. Big test, but big stakes.

The AFL and Channel 7 want Thursday night games (apparently some fans do too, personally I don't know why). Once you require a Thursday night game there's no other reasonable option (keeping the two teams' breaks even) other than us and Hawthorn v Fremantle. Essendon are also the media darlings right now, with the perception they'll kick a lot of goals, plus Adelaide are going well enough that I imagine plenty of fans in SA will be watching.

The AFL's website has this information now. Go to the game's page (for this one it's here: https://www.afl.com.au/matches/3108) and then go to Player Stats, and use the advanced stats to find intercept marks and possession (as well as pressure acts and plenty of other info). Nah [censored] that. The MCG is our home ground. We deserve to play where we want to play. At any rate, there's not a huge difference between the crowd we'll get tomorrow and what we'd get under "normal" conditions.

We were always going to be the Thursday night game given the other options and assuming the AFL is trying to minimise five-day breaks and trying to avoid five-day breaks where the opponent has six or more days off. Essendon v Adelaide on the Friday is unexpected given there is Bulldogs v Sydney, but if the rumour is true that the Dogs didn't want another five-day break, the only other option really is Carlton v Geelong and honestly, who wants yet another Geelong Thurs/Fri night game (tonight is their fourth in a row).

I agree with this. We're working on how to defend against any side we play against and how to score from transition. That's sustainable football if it can be adjusted to our opponents' game style, and mostly this year that's worked. To the list of teams we've dismantled I'd add Brisbane, but obviously only after half time. But in the last two months they've been able to get on top of everyone they've played, the started doing it to us in the first half too, but when we reset we clearly had learned a few things and the way we hit them in the second half completely destroyed their ball movement, took their forwards out of the game, and generated 97 points of our own. Stewart had 3 intercept marks and Ridley 2. For comparison, Lever had 5 and May 4. Also Fritsch, Harmes, Jackson, Petracca and Spargo had 2 marks inside 50 each.

It sounds like Essendon v Adelaide is going to be the Friday night, which I suppose leaves us for the Thursday night:

Source? Regardless, I can see two reasons for Channel 7 wanting the Dogs v Sydney game in prime time: both sides like to score (albeit Sydney's scoring is down recently); and fair chance Sydney will be still be in some form of lockdown, meaning plenty of eyeballs on screens in Sydney. There's a fair chance there is also going to be a Thursday night game next week: they can't put Dogs v Sydney on Thursday because Sydney's on Sunday this week, so there's every chance our match will be Thursday night and then they need something to fill the Friday night, and the only other option is probably Carlton v Geelong.

We're 12-2. You're running the same schtick you ran last year when we were 7-8.

Huh? Dylan Moore kicked 4. He’s 176cm. O’Brien kicked 2, from 5 marks. Good but nothing spectacular. Koschitzke barely touched it. Most of the rest of their goals were from mids.

Wowee. Back to back losses to St Kilda and GC. End of Richmond? Quite possibly. Freo takes 8th by beating Carlton. If I were them I’d be pretty livid my home game got moved to the MCG but I suppose they want experience on the G. If Freo loses though, and if we beat GWS, the round could end with Essendon in the 8, and/or St Kilda only percentage out of the 8, and Carlton just one win out.

Few other reasons we won that game. They had three in-game injuries (Coniglio, Davis and de Boer), but otherwise we won because of our strong defence (they generated 13 scoring shots from 49 inside 50s, but kept the margin respectable by kicking 11.2) and our pressure (+18 in disposals but also +9 in tackles and a whopping 4-17 tackles inside 50).

I'd have picked Brown, but if it's wet I can understand why we might choose to stay small. Would prefer Bowey isn't the medical sub for his debut, and given Chandler's done it so many times might be vandenBerg's turn. Also what's with Jones being injured?

So what you're saying is "if we didn't kick the goals that we kicked, we would have lost". No [censored]. I mean, we could have scored 120 but if Essendon had scored 115 you could say the exact same thing. The fact the game was close does not make your argument about us needing more forward power any stronger.

The optimist says WA, SA, NT and Queensland will all be done with their lockdowns and issues by this time next week. SA didn't go into lockdown and has no new cases. The others locked down early and appear at this stage to be doing well. If that optimistic situation arises, the WA, SA and Queensland teams will go home either next week or the week after. Meaning the Vic hub may only last one week (this week), save for the NSW teams who aren't going to be playing games at home any time soon it seems. At any rate, if they are trying to get Adelaide v Brisbane played in Adelaide, I'd suggest right now it's more likely than not that we'll be playing Port in Adelaide next week.

Is this a dig at us or a compliment? We've scored 70 or more in 11 of our 14 games. Our opponents have scored 70 or more in 5 of our 14 games. Compliment, yeah?

Despite Adelaide flying out of SA, the talk is that they are still angling to FIFO to play that game in Adelaide. So our game vs Port is still on the cards to be in Adelaide I think, at least at this stage, and particularly if that family of positive cases didn't spend time in the community when infectious and as such there are no more cases in SA over the next few days.

Yes but you also "saw" us losing to Essendon.

So is there no fear of our game's timeslot being changed to accommodate a change to the Fremantle v Carlton game?

Victoria had more than 800 deaths from COVID last year, almost all of which occurred during the second wave. Do you seriously doubt the proposition that if COVID is left un-defended by either vaccines or lockdowns/restrictions, there wouldn't be hundreds of deaths?

There are only two of them: Collingwood and Essendon. Prior to that are the two games you've just referenced, Brisbane and the Dogs. It's not a long term trend yet. It's one game where the whole side was off, and then Essendon (which, by the way, I do not agree was our third worst game for the season. Essendon was a good opponent and that performance was superior IMO to the North and Hawthorn wins at least). These are just guff statements that aren't true. We currently average 87 points per game and have a percentage of 131.4%. Here are the last four premiers (in full seasons): 2019 Richmond averaged 86 points per game and had a percentage of 113.7%. 2018 West Coast averaged 91 points per game and had a percentage of 121.4%. 2017 Richmond averaged 90 points per game and had a percentage of 118.3%. 2016 Bulldogs averaged 86 points per game and had a percentage of 115.4%. If we keep doing what we're doing we will be right in the mix in terms of scoring, with a percentage that well exceeds any of these four recent premiers.

That's a sample size of two games. Against Essendon we did only score 68, which is low, but we also had 23 scoring shots, which is bang on our season average of 24.5 shots per game. The issue there being inaccuracy. Prior to Collingwood, our previous four scores were 97, 87, 95 and 94. The first two of those scores were produced against two of the best sides other than us, Brisbane and the Dogs. I am arguing that we can improve our scoring but that it's nowhere near the problem that is being suggested on here (although by clarifying your post it's clear you don't think it's as bad as I had thought you did). Well not the sentiment that we have the least potent forward line in the league. I also don't agree that our elite defence is irrelevant to considering the effectiveness of our forward line. It's essential, for context. We don't need to score big every week. Maybe some other clubs in the competition do (Essendon would be one example) because they're less capable of stopping sides scoring. In 2018 that was us. I also don't agree that scoring has been the primary reason for both our losses this season. We scored 95 points against Adelaide. The issue in both those games was that our opponents scored at a rate well higher than any of the other 12 sides we've played this year. But the key point remains: despite all of the so-called weaknesses, we have scored the fourth-most points in the league. We're 68 points behind Brisbane across 14 games, which is the equivalent of 4.86 points per game, i.e. less than a goal per game. Another metric is average scoring shots per game: Bulldogs - 27.57 Brisbane - 25.07 Melbourne - 24.50 Essendon - 23.76 Geelong - 23.07 Sydney - 23.07 Richmond - 22.64 Port Adelaide - 22.50 West Coast - 22.14 We generate the third-most shots on goal and the fourth-most points per game in the competition. If anything, these stats show me that our inaccuracy is holding us back. I agree with your final line, though. I'm confident this is a glass half full situation.