titan_uranus

There are two arguments peddled by the protesters and those who think like them, when arguing against lockdowns, that make my blood boil. The first is that we have had very few deaths in Australia from COVID, and/or that the death rate from COVID is "low". That argument either ignores, or fails to contemplate, that the death rate in Australia is low because of the public health measures that have been implemented since March 2020, predominantly the use of lockdowns and mandatory mask wearing. In other words, if we did what the protesters wanted, not only would the total number of deaths be higher, but the rate of death would also be higher, because we'd have more cases needing ICU/ventilation and fewer health resources to treat them. The second argument is drawing comparisons between places like the UK or US right now with Australia right now (e.g. people saying crowds are allowed at the Euros but I can't leave my house). That argument either ignores, or fails to even think about, the wildly differing vaccination rates in the UK/US compared to Australia.

Do you think that because the Dogs have been scoring one goal per game more than us, that the scoring difference between the sides is major? It's mainly accuracy at any rate, given it's an 8 scoring shot difference and all 8 shots were goals.

It's less than 7 days since we drew with the worst Hawthorn side they've fielded for 15 years...

Agree. If it happens, will just round off what has been an unbelievably bad financial result from this year's fixture.

Yep. 2018 Melksham would be playing for us right now. Unfortunately it seems we're stuck with 2019-20 Melksham, which isn't anywhere near as enticing. I don't like the idea of putting TMac in the ruck. He's neither a ruckman nor a clearance midfielder, and whilst he does get plenty of ball between the arcs, I feel like we'd be one down in stoppages every time he's the ruckman: I don't feel that way at all with Jackson (and obviously also with Gawn). It's not the end of the world to have to use Weid or TMac in the ruck: if Jackson were injured, that's what we'd do you'd think. But with Jackson available I think the structural benefit he brings and the relief it gives Gawn outweigh his current poor form in the forward line.

Melksham (at least 2018 Melksham) isn't a bad idea given our forward 50 connection, but I see two issues with him replacing Jackson: Who's the second ruck? Can we afford to send TMac into the ruck, leaving us with just Brown up forward? Can we play a forward line with both Fritsch and Melksham in it? We've run into forward pressure difficulties before when we've done that.

I see. Looks like they're not currently sure if they can get us into Queensland to play GC (assuming the NT is a write-off). Alternatively they'll have to bring forward one of our West Coast, Adelaide or Geelong games. Given Adelaide is already in Victoria, we may find that game brought forward. But then it gets tough because we don't have neat match ups to move around to make that work.

Yeah well Whateley also thinks there should be a "play in" for the finals where the sides in 9th and 10th get a shot at finishing 7th and 8th. In other words, sometimes he says some silly things.

Maybe because Jackson's not playing as badly as some on Demonland think, whilst Weideman would hardly be an upgrade? Jackson's primary benefit to the side is his time in the ruck/midfield, not his time in the forward line. Weideman would be the opposite way around. It throws structures out. Weideman can't run around in the midfield covering the more athletic rucks (like Tim English) the way Jackson can, and he's never really shown an ability to be a link up midfielder like Jackson.

I reckon one of the other reasons their scoring has dropped off is that their first 10 games weren't all that hard. They opened the season with Collingwood, West Coast (in Melbourne), North, Brisbane (in Ballarat, at the end of Brisbane being unexpectedly stuck in Victoria for three weeks), Gold Coast, GWS, Richmond, Carlton, Port and St Kilda. Since then they've had us, Fremantle (in Perth), Geelong (in Geelong), West Coast (in Perth), North, Sydney and Gold Coast. IMO, the latter 7 games have been against better quality sides and they've played a little bit worse as a result (it's all relative though, they're still 12-4!). They've had 8 more scoring shots across 7 weeks. Barely one more per game. All 8 of them were goals too, so they've scored barely one goal a game more than us over the same period. So whilst technically yes it's been better, the difference is negligible.

I think there's no doubt at all that if the MCG can hold 40,000 on Grand Final day, the Grand Final will be at the MCG. The AFL will have a threshold figure in mind and I suspect it will be lower than 40,000.

Returning to footy, does anyone know what this article says? The photo has Hawthorn and Melbourne in it and so I'm wondering if it talks about us?

The conventional wisdom has been that after this week we'd fly to the Gold Coast, then from there to Perth to play West Coast. I wonder, though, whether we'll be staying in Melbourne to get our game vs Adelaide played while they're here. I could foresee the AFL reshuffling our games to keep us in Vic for a block, and then interstate for the GC and WC games, rather than sending us interstate for two weeks but still needing to bring us back.

We're 9-0 against the top 11 and the only team we haven't beaten is the only team we haven't played. But you only need to read Demonland to see why people think, after the draw with Hawthorn (and the loss to GWS two weeks earlier), we're not good enough.

Remember we won that game?

The Harmes-Libba thing is interesting. Do we do it again because it worked so well last time, or do we avoid it because they may have prepared for it and either it won't be as effective, or we could maybe surprise them by sending Harmes to someone else? I'm inclined to think Libba won't be tagged out of it by the same player twice in one year, so I'm not sure it will work as well for us again this time.

Is it, though? It's one thing to stop May and Lever taking intercept marks, but you then have to do something with it when the ball hits the deck. I'm sure, though, that they won't have all of Naughton, Bruce, Ugle-Hagan, Schache and English forward at once. Most likely English/Bruce will be in the ruck, and one of the others will be on the bench, meaning three at a time with mediums/smalls around them. Ugle-Hagan was good last week but nowhere the week before when the pressure was on vs Sydney. Schache is just meh. My concern remains, as it would have been regardless of selection, on Naughton and their midfield.

English too. I wonder whether this is a ruck issue - they don't want to be too small when Bruce is in the ruck giving English a rest, so they want to ensure that at any time they have Naughton, Ugle-Hagan and one of Bruce/Schache forward to keep May and Lever honest.

Obviously! Fixed. Also Mitch Hannan comes back.

Dogs have gone tall, bringing in Schache to play alongside Bruce and Ugle-Hagan (and Naughton, of course).

Emergencies are Bedford, Sparrow, Weideman and J Smith (i.e. Sparrow, last week's medi-sub, is "out").

Harmes in for vandenBerg.

I agree with this. On a disruption basis, our fixture has been good. But this is also true: On a financial basis, we've copped it bad. I haven't read that Herald Sun article but it would be no surprise to me at all if we had the worst financial result from the COVID disruption this year of any club. We've had four home games impacted by the two Victorian lockdowns, two of which were huge (Alice Springs and Queen's Birthday), one of which is this weekend's 1 v 2 game that you'd expect to have filled whatever capacity the MCG was allowed up to maybe 60,000 in a non-COVID year, and another vs a Victorian club in Hawthorn. A contrast is Hawthorn, who so far have had one home game impacted: their Round 14 home game vs Essendon, which was moved to their other home ground in Tasmania and drew a huge crowd. Every other game they've played in the two Victorian lockdowns has been an away game, including again this week. So whilst disruption wise it's been a good year, financially it's been terrible.

The COVID stuff is draining but jeepers, "return to 2020 form and results"? We've lost a grand total of zero consecutive matches. One draw, the week after belting a top 4 side on their home ground. And we're top of the [censored] ladder!

Those are last year's stats, @jnrmac. The menu at the top allows you to select a season and you've got it on 2020.