titan_uranus

6 - Gawn 5 - Lever 4 - Langdon 3 - Oliver 2 - Salem 1 - TMac

Bit of an odd win in the end, being only 4 points up 5 minutes into the last quarter but winning by 50. But as @bing181 said, we started turning the game around from quarter time. We only lost one quarter, the first, and from then on we got better at most things. And we did it without 3-4 best 22 players. We are going to lose a game at some point this year through inaccurate goalkicking. It's inevitable IMO. Lever kept us together early. Petty struggled all day but Lever was just fantastic. He's taken his game to a really high level this year and although he's still prone to a dropped mark or clanger kick here or there, overall he is just integral to our improvement. Thought Rivers had a shocking first quarter but then rebounded back excellently. Hibberd also got back to 2018 form. I reckon at least part of the reason we brought him in for Jetta was to replace some of May's rebounding, as we'd otherwise have Petty and Jetta who are both pretty dour. TMac is showing us what is role is going to be when B Brown and Weideman are ready to come back. He'll push higher up the ground, give us an option that isn't Gawn when coming out of defensive 50, and be a general aerial threat for opposition mids. Poor old Jones had a mare. He'll get his 300th next week but with the pressure of May, Fritsch, B Brown and Weideman all getting ready to return, spots are tight. Banking these early wins is just critical if we want to have a serious crack at it this year. We've still got the Dogs x 2, Richmond, Port in Adelaide, West Coast in Perth, Geelong in Geelong and Sydney. We're not going to win them all, but with these five wins we're allowing ourselves to have those bad games during the season and, hopefully, not completely fall apart.

They’re playing a predictable way. Numbers behind, open forward line. We’re struggling to generate space forward of centre. But still did well enough for 7 shots on goal, same as them. We’re going to lose a game this year with our inaccurate goalkicking and it might be today. Petty and Rivers are really struggling.

It's arguable we've already won four 8-point games. Fremantle, St Kilda, GWS and Geelong are all pretty much in the middle third of the ladder and should all be challenging for at least top 8, if not more. What's not arguable, but rather unquestionable, is that we aren't good enough to be looking anywhere beyond the next game.

So Geelong should win tomorrow, but that will leave Brisbane in 9th despite being 2-3. They finish with 4 at home, too. They should be able to set themselves up for a serious tilt this year despite the bad start. As to our start: Geelong will win tomorrow, which will mean we've beaten 9th, 10th or 11th (depending if Fremantle wins), 12th and 13th, with 17th as well if we win tomorrow. Our opponents have a joint record of 10-10 (a Geelong win tomorrow makes it 11-10, if we win tomorrow it will be 12-14). It's not a terribly weak start. If we win, we'll only have played one of the current bottom five.

Some thoughts: How many who are sticking the boot into St Kilda this year used the phrase "they've gone past us" last year? I haven't watched the game but Sydney's loss probably suggests they are going to have off days when their kids play poorly. They're not a strong defensive side so if they don't score they'll struggle to win. There is so much talk about Richmond in this thread. We're not playing Richmond this week. Tomorrow is a huge game for us.

I'm more disappointed about Sparrow being dropped than Jetta. I thought Sparrow did a really good job after being the sub last week. Jordon wasn't bad either but if I had to pick one to miss this week I'd have picked Jordon. Edit: good luck to M Brown. He has big shoes to fill. He can't just be a lead up forward. Fritsch has lifted his defensive game this year, and M Brown has to follow suit. Not on Jetta's form so far this year. Probably not on Jetta's 2020 form either.

This. The rest of your post can be considered on Sunday evening. The worst thing we can do is think about ANZAC Eve. Yes, it's a big game, and yes, it will be exciting if we go into it in form, but if we're thinking about it now we'll be 4-2 after it.

St Kilda's best and worst are so far apart. Best is finals material. Worst is bottom 2 tripe. This is non-competitive stuff right here, as it was two weeks ago. How they managed to get back from 33 points down against West Coast may well be one of the 2021 season's biggest mysteries.

We had a great run with injuries to this point so we're regressing to the mean, unfortunately. Fingers crossed we see some regression to the mean on our goalkicking accuracy, and that of our opponents. I see three options to replace Fritsch: A tall forward such as Daw or M Brown (B Brown if he was fit, but he's not) Melksham, with Melksham then being replaced by someone like Sparrow or someone like Chandler Petty plays forward, with Hibberd replacing May. Personally I think with Petty training back, he should only play back. So, I think the third option shouldn't be the answer. I think Melksham is the best replacement option overall but he can't match Fritsch's marking power or defensive abilities. But I think he's the best bet to ensure we don't become too tall or too slow. If we use Melksham in that role we have to replace Melksham's role but I think we can cover that reasonably well with Sparrow coming into the 22 for a full game.

Well to be fair, Jackson's played four games whilst Treacy's only played 1 and the others only 3. Still, on averages, Jackson is 2nd with an average of 1.25 contested marks per game. On averages, he's also 2nd for contested possessions and 4th for clearances.

I don't associate colour with success/failure. It's all been failure in my lifetime anyway. This is what I care about. The royal blue jumper looks great. I love it. But I only ever want to see it if there is a genuine clash. Why the [censored] did we wear it against GWS? We've never worn a clash jumper against GWS in the past (last year we wore our special heritage jumper which was navy blue). We've also started wearing it against Collingwood, which is stupid as there is again no clash with Collingwood. If we wear it this week vs Hawthorn...shudder...

Surely in contention for most improved this year. He's never been this good. What he used to have as a defender was the dash and dare. He's never had the two-way running or the physicality that he has this year. I don't mind him running halfway down the ground to drive us inside 50 because I'm more confident in our forward half game to keep the ball there that Hunt won't get exposed out of position. I'm also more confident in his ability to turn around and gut run back into defence if need be. And when we're in defence, I'm confident in his ability to win a one-on-one or to put his head over the ball when it's his turn. Loving his game so far this year.

After the game I was a bit down on Jackson's performance just in terms of his time in the forward 50. In the fourth quarter I felt we were desperate for a key forward to hold a mark when we needed to kick a goal to ice the game and he was targeted but dropped marks a few times. But on watching replays it's clear that I was far too harsh on him given his competition in the air. Whilst he wasn't clunking his marks, he wasn't being beaten either. Of course, the work he's doing when he goes into the ruck is critical to us as it gives Gawn the flexibility to drift wherever we need him, whether forward or back. Jackson can also shoulder the inside 50 ruck load which allows Gawn to sit a kick behind if need be. And Jackson's ability below his knees when playing through the middle is already good and improving.

One other stat that might be worth mentioning. We've won 12 quarters so far this year, which is the best of any club. The Dogs are on 11, Sydney 10, and Port, Richmond and Geelong are on 9. Of the four quarters we've lost, two of them were vs Fremantle in Round 1. That means in our last three games we've only lost two quarters (Q1 vs GWS, Q3 vs Geelong).

I can't help but share the concern. There is plenty of evidence so far this year to suggest these sorts of concerns are unfounded. But still. They used Worpel in a tag on Brayshaw vs Fremantle so I expect him to do the same against Oliver or Petracca. The rest of their midfield is good on paper but not performing: Mitchell, O'Meara, Wingard, Phillips. My main concern is turnovers across half forward with Jiath and Frost rebounding with pace. They butcher the ball, but we've looked our worst this year (vs St Kilda and GWS) when our opponent takes us on with foot speed through the corridor. I expect Jiath and Frost to attempt that against us.

Geelong hardly played "fast break" yesterday.

Yep, we're generating plenty of scoring opportunities, but the difference between us and two of those other sides is that we don't concede huge scoring shots against. The 39.25 (64 shots) against us is significantly less than Adelaide's 53.47 (i.e. 100 shots) or Sydney's 47.52 (99). Even the Dogs have conceded 34.35 (i.e. 69 shots). I haven't been through the rest of the comp but I'm guessing our 64 shots against is going to be close to the best. We've had some bad luck with opposition accuracy and we're missing too many shots ourselves. If those regress back to the mean...jeepers...

The stat about our opposition only scoring from 30.6% of their inside 50s is an amazing turnaround from 2017-18, where we couldn't stop sides scoring when they went inside 50.

Didn't Petty get taken off to ensure we had an emergency who didn't play a full game (Hibberd, Petty and Chandler the three)?

Wasn't sure where to put this but on On the Couch tonight they highlighted some stats: We are conceding scores from 30.6% of our opposition inside 50s, which is the best percentage ever recorded after four rounds We have six of the competition's top 21 pressure players (presumably this is measured by average pressure acts per game?) Our forward half pressure rating is the third highest rating by any club since 2013.

They play two rucks and rest one forward, and Koschitzke, and will likely replace Lewis with O'Brien. So they'll have three talls. We may need Petty for cover.

The teams we've played have a 7-5 record in their other non-Melbourne games. Same with Sydney. The teams the Dogs have beaten have a 4-9 record. Love this. It's critical to any good side.

The Cunnington one is line ball IMO. Bumping players late should be avoided. You risk hitting them in the head. But for that level of contact, surely a fine is sufficient.

I think if Jordon needs a rest, Sparrow gets his spot in the 22. IMO Sparrow earned another game with his performance after coming on. If Chandler gets Jordon's spot, in your team either Sparrow returns to being the sub or misses a spot altogether. I am biased, because I have never once rated him, but I would like to think that in 2021 we have moved beyond Joel Smith. We are winning in no small part because of our reliable team defence. Smith is a risk of doing the opposite. He is a Frost-esque loose cannon.