titan_uranus

I didn't realise before that Paine had also been sledging Ashwin. The sledges themselves didn't seem funny but it just gets even worse when you sledge someone that hard and then fail as badly as Paine did today. Prior to the sandpaper disgrace the Australian side was developing poor tendencies. Under Langer/Paine that seemed to be rectified initially. It seems to me the side is now slipping back into old habits, with Paine and Wade in particular focusing too much on sledging and "mindgames" rather than just playing cricket. I don't think Smith should ever captain again. If we need a new captain it should be Cummins. I wouldn't drop Paine but I'd be getting the group together to focus on playing proper cricket again. I'd drop Wade and replace him with Head, or any other batsman in the country. He's a chronic underperformer. Horrendous result if Pucovski's hurt his shoulder. If so, I'd play a proper opener in his spot (e.g. Harris), not Wade.

Odds on that India is going to get through the entire day losing just three wickets, one of which fell in the first 15 minutes. It's a flat deck but nevertheless an incredible effort given injuries to Pant, Jadeja and Vihari. Paine's now dropped three catches today, all of which really should have been taken.

That's the 2018 game plan right there. Goodwin's game plan has focused first and foremost on dominating time in forward half. He has always believed that successful footy sides ensure the ball is in their forward half more than their opponents. I don't have the stats to hand to say whether he's right about that or not. In 2018 we achieved this through prioritising stoppages and clearances. We ran one off the back of the square to ensure we had an extra number at centre bounces and we regularly swapped out our sixth forward for an extra number through the middle. We then scored heavily through locking the ball in our forward half. And we used a high forward half press, with our key defenders in the middle of the ground, to lock the ball in that forward half. It largely worked, we scored heavily, and we won 16 games doing it. So we had a game plan. Since 2018 it's fallen apart for a number of reasons, including that it wasn't a particularly sustainable game plan to begin with. We've changed things since then, although Goodwin's core focus appears to me to remain time in forward half dominance.

I've never wanted the Seahawks to win before. I felt significantly dirty doing so yesterday. Then the Titans getting up on that last play field goal thanks to that AJ Brown catch just before was a fitting end to a good game (and saved me in this comp!). Thanks @Macca for running things again!

Ravens, Seahawks, Titans

As far as I know the division winners remain as the 1-4 seeds, which means the first match-ups are now 2v7, 3v6 and 4v5. In the NFC, that means the winner of the NFC East (either the 7-9 Football Team or Cowboys, or the 6-10 Giants) will get a home playoff game against, likely, the 11-5 Bucs. I'm not against division winners making the playoffs but I think it would be fairer for the seeding to occur based on all 7 playoff teams' records, not guaranteeing division winners get the 1-4 seeds no matter what.

Burns out of the squad. Right call. Warner to replace if fit. If not, Pucovski if fit. If both unfit, Harris gets the spot. If both Warner and Pucovski are both fit, both play, Wade moves down to number 5 and Head gets dropped. Wade's not an opener but has done more than enough to hold his spot (subject to his own fitness - he wasn't running well in the field after his leg injury). There's an argument that even if only one of Warner and Pucovski are fit, Head still goes, with Harris coming in and Wade moving down.

Sucks for the Browns to have lost their WRs to COVID, but still, losing to the Jets with playoffs (and the division) on the line is classic Browns. They can still make it even if they lose to the Steelers next week but that requires the Colts to lose to Jacksonville, which surely won't happen, or a whack combination of the Titans losing to the Texans and then each of the Ravens, Colts and Dolphins winning.

Half a chance this will be an innings loss. Can't keep carrying Burns, Head and Green in the same top 6. Green may score well but even if he does, we're just far too lean in the top 6. Smith's horribly out of form and Labushagne can't convert any of his starts into 50s, let alone 100s. Must drop Burns for the next match. Never should have played the first Test. Funnily enough though, he's the only member of our failing top 6 to have made it to 50 this series so far. I know Head's got future captain ideals but he should go too. Throws his wicket away far too often. We can do better - whether that means shifting Wade down to 5 and bringing in two of Warner/Pucovski/Harris, or finding another middle order batsman to bat at 5. We have to strengthen the top 6. A few dropped catches cost us dearly (Labuschagne's drop of Gill at the end of Day 1 was as big as any IMO - they should have been 2/4 with Rahane out there facing Cummins and Starc at their best) but ultimately you can't win Tests if you can't make 200, and that's a fair chance of happening for the third consecutive (full) innings.

MFC predictions Ladder position at the end of the H&A season: 7th Position at the end of the season (e.g. stage of finals): 7th B&F top 5 (1 point for correct inclusion, 1 point for correct place): 1. Christian Petracca 2. Clayton Oliver 3. Max Gawn 4. Christian Salem 5. Steven May Leading goalkicker: Ben Brown Most marks: Steven May Best first year player: Bailey Laurie Most improved player: Sam Weideman All Australian 40-man squad selections (1 point each): Petracca, Gawn, Oliver, May All Australian final 22 selections (1 point each): Petracca, May Big Ben Brown will kick his biggest goal tally against: Essendon Biggest winning margin (exact guess is 5 points, within 1 point margin is 4 points etc): 68 Biggest MFC story of the year (5 points): Petracca wins the Brownlow Other MFC predictions (1 point each): TMac doesn't crack back into the best 22; Jackson shows strong form; we lose a game to a bottom 4 side; we beat Geelong in Geelong. AFL predictions Premier: Geelong Runner-up: Port Adelaide Wooden spoon: North Melbourne Biggest improver: Fremantle Biggest slider: Collingwood Brownlow medal: Christian Petracca Coleman medal: Charlie Dixon Rising star: Matt Rowell

According to this article, it's never happened before - all 11 teams to go 11-0 prior to this year's Steelers won their division.

Bears, Browns, Bills

Browns can easily take the division - if they beat the Jets and the Steelers lose this week vs the Colts, that final Week 17 game will be for the division. Wonder if a club's ever started 11-0 and failed to win the division.

2013. They have the longest finals drought outside of Gold Coast. On their website they've said they had an average free-to-air audience in 2020 of nearly 600,000. No idea what that figure is for us but will be the reason they get two Thursday nights to open the year. There is no fairness, though, in them only having 5 interstate trips and the remaining 17 games all in Melbourne.

In addition to these, some other quirks: We still haven't played Essendon twice in a season since 2005. We still haven't played Brisbane twice in a season since 2013. We still haven't played GWS at Giants Stadium since 2014. We haven't played West Coast at the MCG since 2014. Our MCG home game against Adelaide ends a run of only 1 of our last 10 games against them being at the MCG Next year's home game against Carlton is our first since 2017 and only our second since 2011 (we are currently on a streak of 1-10 H-A). Next year is the first non-COVID year we haven't played St Kilda twice since 2014.

Interstate trips: Hawthorn - 9 (but four are home games in Launceston) North - 9 (but four are home games in Hobart) (plus Geelong) Melbourne - 7 (but one is Alice Springs) (plus Geelong) St Kilda - 7 (including a home game in Cairns) (plus Geelong) Essendon - 6 (plus Geelong) Richmond - 6 Geelong - 6 Bulldogs - 6 (plus Geelong) Carlton - 5 Collingwood - 5 Compared to the original 2020 fixture (i.e. before COVID hit, the one released in October 2019), the only changes to this distribution are North having one extra game in Hobart, St Kilda and the Dogs having one extra interstate game, and Essendon getting sent down the highway.

Agree, but subject to timeslots. We don't know what our timeslots will be for Rounds 7-23, so we don't know if we're going to get, say, a stack of prime time or blockbuster games, family-friendly Sat/Sun arvo games, or the dreaded Sunday 1.10pm or twilight games.

So the double up games are against Geelong, Bulldogs, GWs, Hawthorn and Adelaide. Can't complain about that. 10 MCG home games including Geelong, Richmond, Carlton, Collingwood, Hawthorn and the Dogs (the other four are Fremantle, Sydney, GWS and Adelaide). Those six home games are a pretty good spread (no North or St Kilda) and we retain home game for ANZAC Eve and Queen's Birthday. On the flipside, one of only four clubs to not get a Thursday or Friday night game in the opening six rounds (the other three are Fremantle, Hawthorn and North Melbourne). We're clearly not attractive at the moment, but a solid start to the year will change that given the floating schedule. 12 MCG games altogether. Would like one or two more, but clearly we're not that attractive to be hosted by opposition sides. Away to Essendon - that means we're now on a 2-15 H-A streak against them. First game at the MCG vs Adelaide since 2016 and second since 2012. We haven't played Fremantle in Perth since 2015. Meanwhile we haven't avoided playing West Coast in Perth since 2015.

Well, I said we needed to be chasing sub-250. We've certainly achieved that. Incredibly good bowling. Sad to see Shami injured - not just as it may rob the series of another good player, but also because it ruins what was likely to be a massive record-setting innings. Still, I think I heard that's the first ever Test innings in which all 11 batsmen batted and none of them reached single fingers.

I can't see us winning this without bowling India out for 200-odd. Chasing 250+ on a wearing wicket with night-time swing and Ashwin's spin is going to be too hard for us I fear. The quicker we can move on from the Burns/Wade combo to any two of Warner, Pucovski and Harris (who should have played over Burns), the better.

Bills, Seahawks, Chiefs

For those who like playing this game, there's a photo of Laurie in today's training gallery where he looks to be wearing a jumper with a "1" as the first number? 16, maybe?

Packers, Titans, Saints

Tough week! Going to go Saints, Raiders, Colts.

Ah yes, another opportunity for the usual suspects to do the whole "actions speak louder than words" thing. There aren't any actions we can implement right now that aren't susceptible to criticism. Even with many of our players doing early pre-season fitness work, I'm sure plenty will argue that training means nothing until game day. What's funny about this article is that amongst the obvious fluff is an acceptance from Gawn that we look back on 2018 and consider that a fail. So for those who think the players think it's all going to happen because 2018 happened, this article actually helps you see that's not really what the players think. Yes, the rest is guff, and yes, we all want to see us perform in 2021. But given that's not currently an option, just let the articles roll around and accept them for what they are.