SFebes

Gday Frap - Just out of curiosity, is the "expected score" a constant in-game changing evidence based data set? ie; also, how can it predict what could have happened had Adelaide not kicked 1.8 to start the game, is it just a best guess? Does it factor confidence/momentum? They also missed some easy shots in close as well. All I was saying was in reference to people who say if we kicked straight in the last, if Crows kicked straight it's a totally different ball game. ps: "expected score" is not something I have used but I have noticed quite a few discrepancies with how its portrayed so would like to learn more about it.

Can't disagree with any of that really. Credit where its due re Goodwin/changes, however still plenty to improve to be a real chance at the pointy end. Exactly how I see where we are at.

They also started the game with 1.8, so it would have been a different game anyway.

Nobody is saying Adelaide are a bad side. What some of us are saying is that we played poorly at times, even when not under pressure. Poor decision making, bombing into 50 again, passing into the pockets earlier in the game, 1m handballs and lack of tackling pressure. We are still a work in progress which was evident for half a game last week as well as other recent games. It's always the same issues. Anyway, hopefully things gel for longer periods very soon. Great last quarter by Viney and you cant doubt the spirit of the players not to give in, its just skill errors and execution.

Got to say, it was a pretty disappointing performance. Need to be a lot better than that. Will take the win and forget about it. Very strange game.

Leading wide into the pockets as usual. Especially when there is space free

Terrible ball use

You mean Collingwood with Cox who has always been a forward? Or Port with Dixon who's always been a forward? Or Brisbane with Daniher who has always been a KPF? Ahhhh 2021..... What did Geelong do last year? Oh thats right, they had Hawkins....who also plays as a full time forward. See the trend here? We need a KPF (who already knows the forward craft, unlike Grundy) who can then chop out in the ruck. We don't need two "A" grade ruckmen, who struggle forward. Anyway enough from me, I'm off overseas. Cheerio

Goodwin can say what he likes but playing 2 x A Grade ruckmen is just silly. One takes away from the other. I still believe we should be looking down the path of a KPF (one who actually knows how to play forward) to chop out in the ruck (a mostly overrated position IMO). Our problem is forward connection, Grundy does not improve that, nor do I think he will. It seems like Grundys main role is to bring the ball to ground and compete (probably sticking with the bombing it in). A half decent KPF will lead and knows their craft, which is most of the issue with our forward line. One only has to see all the flat footed players at times. I also have no faith in Stafford of all people, to teach a 29yo, forward craft in a week or two at VFL level - especially with a 14v14 practice match. Those who have played forward will know what I mean. At the end of the day, the unspoken thing about all of this is that Grundy has actually done nothing wrong, his ruck work has been pretty good this year I reckon. It has been the FD's oversight and Max's own form in the forward 50 that has let him down. I'm pretty sure the original pitch was that Max would play predominantly forward. With spring approaching and dry September days, I hope the combination works wonders. At some point Max has to let go, I think he is struggling to do that, but we saw last Friday night that his value as sole ruck is priceless. Give me that approaching finals over trying to extend his career. Also, some of the hysteria from supporters re the media is quite shocking. When you realise, everyone has an opinion and the media is there to generate conversation and traffic through websites it's like water off a ducks back. Everyone has an opinion, sometimes they're right, sometimes they're wrong, who really cares. Also, ex players, even champions of the game, have a lot more knowledge of things than any of us. With the potential for BBB, TMAC not getting back to their best and the likelihood of Max and Brodie not working forward of centre, I do hope we are looking at a KPF to bring into our system to grow with JVR.

If Tex and Rankine can be kept quiet, we will win easily.

He is a terrible keeper, such poor form like I’ve never seen.

I just had a look, of course we can win from anywhere, but 2nd makes it easier & I don't think we'll get there. Hopefully the win fires the boys up however we still have fundamental problems as we saw last week for large periods. Its a very even season. Form and injuries will be the tale, as it always is.

If we finish 2nd, we wouldn't play Pies until the GF anyway best case scenario.

I know that feeling too well. My ex wife and all her family were Cats fanatics and all my mates are Geelong too. I’m sure I have PTSD from their success/our incompetence during that time! I’ll take another look at the Cats later when I’m home and do a ladder predictor and see if I see what you do. The fact they’re thereabouts worries me. Cameron isn’t firing either yet. Guthrie and Esava and maybe one other to come back. I think we need to finish second to win the flag from here. That would be strong form heading into finals plus the home final against an interstate club. I hope we are pushing hard for second and it falls our way.

Nah I don’t think they’ll win all games. I only had a quick look but think they’ll drop Collingwood and Geelong. But still means we have to win most of our games too. I was actually quite impressed with how the Lions played the other night and how they fought back. Basically a 50pt turnaround. Cats are my concern right now but I do hate them with a passion so may be unnecessarily escalated.

Even if we go on a roll and Port capitulated we still need to overtake the Lions as well to steal 2nd spot. Let’s not forget that.

Just had time to check. Geelong are 1-2 against the top 4. But that was fairly old form IMO.

What is Geelongs record against this top 4 out of curiosity?

What surprises me the most in all of this is why so many people care of what is written and said in the media! Get over it, its just an opinion.

Agree mostly they are all pretty good. Maybe its just me overthinking it, but Tim Watson seems to hate us and lays the boots in any chance he gets?

Maybe the elimination final at Waverley in 89' or Semi Final in 88' Could be wrong though.

You just know that Scott never goes away hey, I cannot stand him or them. I note he subbed out Dangerfield at 3/4 time so he'll be fresh. They also rested Tuohy and Ratugolea for the Essendon game. Bews 1-2wks away and potential to have Cam Guthrie back later in the year whos arguably their best midfielder. They are the Carp of the AFL and never bloody die.

The Cats got a few back this week.....they're a big watch for me. I absolutely hate them more than any other club.

Like I mentioned earlier this week, GWS are a sneaky good side. They have now won 6 out of their last 7 and the only loss was by 6pts. In that time they have beaten not only Melb, but also Geelong at GMHBA and now Adelaide over in SA. Nobody really talking about them but have enough talent and on a roll.

Port were always going to struggle to win that with their "outs" - no surprises tbh.