grazman

A question for those that actually watch U18 footy (not just regurgitate what they read on other sites) - Is Cooper Stephens a reasonable option for our first pick? I know he has slipped a little in thinking because he's out injured ATM, but it seems he has the attributes to still be a potential top 10 draftee.

Gus didn't participate this year because of a back injury though...

Following the seniors game plan then.

There were rumours last trade period. There's a lot of pressure on Hinkley and Port this year, another poor year and ...

I was at the game in Sydney, so I had a front row seat, so to speak, about why. He certainly has assets: tall, athletic and quick..., but he torches the ball. In years gone past I remember when opposition sides were happy to sit off certain players to allow high possession numbers in the back half because they'd always turn it back over. He's in the same boat. I actually wanted him to get the ball because he would either a) dispose of it poorly leading to a turn over, b) sell a team mate into trouble leading to a turnover or c) would take off like a headless chook without considering who to give it to next. I'm not sure what his DE% is, but i'd be surprised if it was higher than about 34%. Also for a bloke his size I actually reckon (like a lot of defenders now) he has very little idea about when to mark and when to spoil.

For the first time in a long time I look at the lineup and think that's probably how they'll start on Saturday night. I've got no doubt that I'm wrong.

Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics. Good sides defy history and predictions. We will put up a better showing down at the cattery. I'm not losing any sleep about going 0-2

Thanks A F, I think that is what Hinkley was probably referring to then. Clearly this wasn't helped on the weekend with so many players underdone and out of gas towards the end of the game.

I think if you had to pick out one metric to measure forward pressure then turnovers would be probably it (though - again no single metric is likely to give you a complete answer). Genuine question - do you know how we fared with Forward 50 turnovers last year?

Maybe, is tackling inside the forward 50 was the only measure of defensive effort (it is certainly one indicator of work rate)?

May will definitely come in probably at the expense of Frost or Hore. I think it's extremely unlikely KK will come in after a significant injury and only one run in the reserves. It's hard to see too many other changes being made unless they decide to bring in Preuss or Keilty to give Max a chop out as he looked well below his best yesterday. It may be an option with the smaller/narrower ground at Geelong.

On the commentary they made mention of the fact that Hinkley had primed his side to take us on that we were underdone through the pre-season due to so many players having operations etc. The most glaring deficiency yesterday was our defensive spread and is definitely the result of not having a lot of outside speed. It's why I can't see Jones being a long term option to play wing. another comment that caught my attention was Port's assessment that our forwards are poor defenders and that all Port needed to do was be patient with ball in hand and they would be able to find a way to move the ball out of defence. For those that question why ANB and Spargo keep getting games see above. For those that think that when Garlett is fit his leg speed will see him back in the side, see above. I think as others have already observed the one structural deficiency we have is a hardworking small that has both speed and a natural goal sense.

It doesn't ring true though. Why put out a public statement about 'due diligence' and imply that there's a problem with the merchandise - when it's actually the price you want to pay. i.e. you're happy to take the merchandise, but this is about being a small man in a big person's world and needing to 'bend 'em over'?

But he says it with such conviction Nash, and we're only really looking to confirm our own bias in this thing after all. I choose to believe in aliens living amongst us - Jesse Hogan is an alien - there I said it!

Is it though? When I first saw it I thought it was pretty far-fetched, but it could have some substance, particularly if the real issue isn't homesickness. We have all conveniently fallen for that reasoning, but do we know it's true? With our list, it's unlikely Jesse could maximise his earnings like he could at either Freo or GCS. The Suns may offer him 6 mil over 5 years if May leaves and they load the contract appropriately (apparently the Freo offer is 4.5 mil over 5 years). God knows with the loss of Ablett and now Lynch they need some sort of drawcard to get the few fans they have to turn up to home games, it ain't going to be Lachie Weller. All this may or may not tempt Hogan (no pun intended), but I don't think it's beyond the realms of possibility. I could completely understand if Jesse and his manager may not want to ever speak to Freo again after what's gone on (again based on the assumption they were blind-sided by their churlish tactics the way everyone else was)

With Dayne Beams now wanting to go back to the Pies I smell a complicated four way trade involving him Hogan, Neale, Tom Langdon and picks involved.

Yep, and conveniently ignore that if they get a top 3 pick for him next year it will be from the AFL and not the club he goes to and also because they've stunk it up for another year. They are conflating issues. GCS do not want May at the club if he won't commit long term which he won't ergo they have to trade him for less than what they would get from the AFL next year.

I don't think they'll get Lobb, I think he'll go to the Eagles.

I think the draft picks are arbitrary to a certain point in that pick 4 in one draft isn't equal to pick 4 in another. I think all that matters to the club will be for it to get what it needs to get the outcomes it wants ( May, KK and something else)

Probably because it means we have a better hand to offer GWS for Shiel!

Yeah Nah. This from the club that was emphatically not going to trade GAJ and hold him to his contract. It's a millstone around their neck carrying a player they know won't be there the following season. It's a distraction they need to do without. Their tough talk is just that, they will get a good pick for May and they'll do it this year. We're in the box seat compared to the likes of Collingwood and Hawthorn who don't look likely to be able to gazump us - providing May wants to play for the Dees.

Great user name btw - one of my all-time favourite albums!

That's true, but is 6 & 10 fair value for Hogan? That has to be the starting point for negotiations for the MFC. I don't think it's unreasonable to expect pick 5 & 6 for Hogan* (3629 points) In other words what is closest to what we paid for him in the first place (picks 3 & 13 - 3446 points) plus our development of him. If we need to we can throw in our third pick this year (ours not the one we have from Adelaide for Lever) likely pick 53 or thereabouts to even it out. Freo may well want to offer us 6 & 10, after they deal with Port but for me that is unders for someone like Hogan. We could do that sort of deal for ourselves. Picks 5 & 6 and our first round pick for 2019 (somewhere between 1,112 and 985 points) for May, KK and one of their early picks (for arguments sake let's say pick 3 - 2,234 points). We could then either use that pick ourselves or trade pick 3 and our second round pick this year (2736 points) for pick 9 & 10 (2864) which is better value for Port than (5 & 22 - 2723 points). It also gives them what they presumably want which is the earliest possible crack at a SA kid. We would then obviously have to use one of picks 9 or 10 ourselves for trading out next year's first pick and look at converting the other pick for players or picks if we have other irons in the fire, which we do. So from a points calculation only ( I wouldn't be inclined to even out the trade with our third pick this year myself). Out. Hogan, 2018 2nd pick, 2018 3rd pick, 2019 1st pick. or Hogan and approximately 1822 current and future points+. In, May, KK, 2018 picks 9 & 10. or May, KK and 2,864 current points. (or in rather simplistic terms it values Hogan as being worth May, KK and about pick 17) Freo lose Neale and their first pick this year, but get Hogan and pick 23 - that seems fair to me (but I am biased). *In all likelihood the draft order will be Brisbane 5 and Freo 6 after Lynch walks to Richmond. + assuming we finish 3rd next year as an indicator only.

You mean Charlie or Max have to change numbers ??

Exactly. We can then look to trade both 4 & 5 to GC and something else* for May, KK and Pick 2 or 3 which we can then try to trade to Port for 9 & 10 or keep for another trade or to use in the draft. I'm not sure why a number of our supporters think that we would have to accept a trade like 5 & 10 for Hogan. If Freo trade Neale for 4 and 22, then ergo Hogan is worth more to them than Neale (because that's why they're trading him). So it has to be pick 4&5, not the 'have my cake and eat it too scenario' that the Docker's supporters concoct. Logically if the Dockers traded 4 to Port for picks 9 &10 before trading with us, we'd be asking for 5, 9 & 10. If they want to keep an early pick then they have to give up either Cerra or Brayshaw who they then have to replace with that pick. * We've apparently sought permission to trade our first round pick next year from the AFL, that probably only works from the AFL perspective if we use a first round pick this year so whether that's 4 or 5 for us to use or to bargain with one of the SA clubs that will tie themselves up in knots to draft one of the SA kids - who will be gagging to get as close to the number one pick as they can.